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Date: 2024-10-19 Page is: DBtxt001.php txt00001332

Debt, Society and Economy
The Eurozone fiasco

The Eurozone fiasco is another version of the US financial implosion of 2008 ... slower, but maybe more catastrophic. Nobody knows!

COMMENTARY
I made the following comment on Google+

It is pretty and it is quite clever ... and way better than nothing, but it is only a bit of the story, and it creates more sets of questions.

The conversation about debt or liabilities should in my view always be had with the related conversation about the assets.

A distinction should be made between the private sector and the public or government or sovereign sector.

A distinction should be made between real assets or liabilities and financial assets or liabilities.

The time line of debt repayment is also important.

Not having China in the circle distorts things for sure. Maybe other wealthy countries should also be in the circle.

Relating anything to GDP sends a wrong message, the US GDP reflects economic weakness not strength. Expensive health, wasteful consumption inflate the GDP number and do nothing to improve quality of life

There is also the distortion associated with the corporate economy that gets itself domiciled in tax havens of convenience.

Pulling these numbers together is rarely done, and it is hard to do ... maybe impossible ... but it is absolutely required to have a meaningful understanding of the state of the global and individual country economies.

The economics profession has done the world a huge disservice by bringing the best models of the economy into a proprietary secret place used only for 'me and my organization' to make money profit, and the accounting profession another huge disservice by not calling the corporate economists on the issue.

Politicians are also at fault for the laws they have passed and maintained about government budget processes and the basis of government accounting used ... almost all are cash based and lacking in meaningful accruals.


Peter Burgess

Eurozone debt web: Who owes what to whom?

See the web of debt circle at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

The circle shows the gross external, or foreign, debt of some of the main players in the eurozone as well as other big world economies. The arrows show how much money is owed by each country to banks in other nations. The arrows point from the debtor to the creditor and are proportional to the money owed as of the end of June 2011. The colours attributed to countries are a rough guide to how much trouble each economy is in.

Europe is struggling to find a way out of the eurozone crisis amid mounting debts, stalling growth and widespread market jitters. After Greece, Ireland, and Portugal were forced to seek bail-outs, Italy - approaching an unaffordable cost of borrowing - has been the latest focus of concern.

But, with global financial systems so interconnected, this is not just a eurozone problem and the repercussions extend beyond its borders.

While lending between nations presents little problem during boom years, when a country can no longer handle its debts, those overseas banks and financial institutions that lent it money are exposed to losses. This could not only unsettle the home country of those banks, but could, in turn, spread the troubles across the world.

So, in the tangled web of inter-country lending, who owes what to whom? Click on a country in the circle to find out what they owe to banks in other countries, as well to find out their total foreign debt, including that owed by governments, monetary authorities, banks and companies.


Source: Bank for International Settlements, IMF, World Bank, UN Population Division

Notes on the data: The Bank for International Settlements data, represented by the proportional arrows, shows what banks in one country are owed by debtors - both government and private - in another country. It does not include non-bank debts. Only key eurozone debtors and their top creditors are shown. Although China is known to hold European debt, no comprehensive figures are available. GDP figures are the latest complete 2010 figures from the IMF. The percentage of gross government debt to GDP is also the latest IMF calculation.

Overall gross external (or foreign) debt is taken from the latest 2011 World Bank/IMF figures and includes all debt owed overseas, including that owed by governments, monetary authorities, banks and companies. Gross external debt per head of population is calculated using the latest medium variant population figures from the UN Population Division.


FRANCE: €440.2 bnSPAIN: €170.5 bnPORTUGALITALYIRELANDGREECEJAPAN: €835.2 bnGERMANY: €414.5 bnUK: €834.5 bnUS
US
GDP: €10.8 tn Foreign debt: €10.9 tn
€35,156 Foreign debt per person 101% Foreign debt to GDP 100% Govt debt to GDP
Risk Status: LOW

Although the US's overseas debt almost equates to its annual GDP, it is still regarded as a safe bet. However, its credit rating has been downgraded. Although Asia - primarily China and Japan - holds the majority of US debt, Europe has the second largest percentage. This means whatever happens in the eurozone will have a deep impact on the US banking system. Within Europe, the UK, Switzerland and France hold the largest amount of US debt, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars.


FRANCESPAINPORTUGALITALY: €37.6 bnIRELANDGREECEJAPAN: €79.8 bnGERMANY: €123.5 bnUK: €227 bnUS: €202.1 bn
FRANCE
GDP: €1.8 tn Foreign debt: €4.2 tn
€66,508 Foreign debt per person 235% Foreign debt to GDP 87% Govt debt to GDP
Risk Status: MEDIUM

Europe's second biggest economy is greatly exposed to the eurozone's troubled debtors. Its banks hold large amounts of Greek, Italian and Spanish debt. This is causing market turbulence, especially against a backdrop of faltering French growth and low consumer spending.


FRANCE: €112 bnSPAINPORTUGAL: €19.7 bnITALY: €22.3 bnIRELANDGREECEJAPAN: €20 bnGERMANY: €131.7 bnUK: €74.9 bnUS: €49.6 bn
SPAIN
GDP: €0.7 tn Foreign debt: €1.9 tn
€41,366 Foreign debt per person 284% Foreign debt to GDP 67% Govt debt to GDP
Risk Status: MEDIUM

Spain's number one worry is bailed-out Portugal, which is indebted to it by billions of euros. Spain itself owes large amounts to Germany and France. As the country attempts to get its debts under control, there are fears the country could be thrown back into recession after November's parliamentary elections, after which a wave of spending cuts and economic reforms are likely. The bursting of a housing and construction boom in 2008 had plunged Spain's economy into a recession that was deeper than in many other European countries.


FRANCE: €19.1 bnSPAIN: €65.7 bnPORTUGALITALY: €2.9 bnIRELANDGREECEJAPANGERMANY: €26.6 bnUK: €18.9 bnUS: €3.9 bn
PORTUGAL
GDP: €0.2 tn Foreign debt: €0.4 tn
€38,081 Foreign debt per person 251% Foreign debt to GDP 106% Govt debt to GDP
Risk Status: HIGH

Portugal, the third eurozone country to need a bail-out, is in deep recession. It is currently implementing a series of austerity measures as well as planning a series of privatisations to fix its shaky finances and reduce its debt burden. The country is highly indebted to Spain, and its banks are owed 7.5bn euros by Greece.


FRANCE: €309 bnSPAIN: €29.5 bnPORTUGALITALYIRELANDGREECEJAPAN: €32.8 bnGERMANY: €120 bnUK: €54.7 bnUS: €34.8 bn
ITALY
GDP: €1.2 tn Foreign debt: €2 tn
€32,875 Foreign debt per person 163% Foreign debt to GDP 121% Govt debt to GDP
Risk Status: HIGH

Italy has a large amount of debt, but it is a relatively wealthy country compared with Greece and Portugal. However, doubt about Italy's leadership and fears that its debt load could grow more quickly than the Italian economy's capacity to support it have left the markets jittery. France is most exposed to Italian deb


FRANCE: €23.8 bnSPAINPORTUGALITALYIRELANDGREECEJAPAN: €15.4 bnGERMANY: €82 bnUK: €104.5 bnUS: €39.8 bn
IRELAND
GDP: €0.2 tn Foreign debt: €1.7 tn
€390,969 Foreign debt per person 1,093% Foreign debt to GDP 109% Govt debt to GDP
Risk Status: HIGH

One of three eurozone countries to so far receive a bail-out, Ireland has introduced a series of tough austerity budgets. Its economy is now showing a modest recovery. After the boom years leading up to 2008, the country fell into recession as a result of the global credit squeeze, which ended the supply of cheap credit that had fuelled the unsustainable growth in its housing market. It shows a very high level of gross foreign debt to GDP because, although it is a small country, it has a large financial sector. The UK is Ireland's biggest creditor.


FRANCE: €41.4 bnSPAINPORTUGAL: €7.5 bnITALY: €2.8 bnIRELANDGREECEJAPANGERMANY: €15.9 bnUK: €9.4 bnUS: €6.2 bn
GREECE
GDP: €0.2 tn Foreign debt: €0.4 tn
€38,073 Foreign debt per person 252% Foreign debt to GDP 166% Govt debt to GDP
Risk Status: HIGH

Greece is heavily indebted to eurozone countries and is one of three eurozone countries to have received a bail-out. Although the Greek economy is small and direct damage of it defaulting on its debts might be absorbed by the eurozone, the big fear is 'contagion' - or that a Greek default could trigger a financial catastrophe for other, much bigger economies, such as Italy.


FRANCE: €107.7 bnSPAINPORTUGALITALYIRELANDGREECEJAPANGERMANY: €42.5 bnUK: €101.8 bnUS: €244.8 bn
JAPAN
GDP: €4.1 tn Foreign debt: €2 tn
€15,934 Foreign debt per person 50% Foreign debt to GDP 233% Govt debt to GDP
Risk Status: LOW

The world's third-largest economy has the highest public debt level amongst developed economies. However, most of its debt is owed internally, so it is not seen as at risk of default. The global financial crisis, this year's earthquake and tsunami, a strong yen and Europe's debt crisis are clouding its current economic outlook. But the government has pledged to turn the country's annual budget deficit into a surplus by 2020. Back to introduction


FRANCE: €205.8 bnSPAINPORTUGALITALY: €202.7 bnIRELANDGREECEJAPAN: €108.3 bnGERMANYUK: €141.1 bnUS: €174.4 bn
GERMANY
GDP: €2.4 tn Foreign debt: €4.2 tn
€50,659 Foreign debt per person 176% Foreign debt to GDP 83% Govt debt to GDP
Risk Status: LOW

The biggest European economy is exposed to Greek, Irish and Portuguese, but mostly, Spanish debt. If any of these defaults, Germany will be hit. Its economy is slowing, mainly because of the problems plaguing its eurozone partners. And as Europe's industrial powerhouse, any problems in Germany mean more problems for the eurozone, but also for the wider international system. Back to introduction


FRANCE: €209.9 bnSPAIN: €316.6 bnPORTUGALITALYIRELAND: €113.5 bnGREECEJAPAN: €122.7 bnGERMANY: €379.3 bnUKUS: €578.6 bn
UK
GDP: €1.7 tn Foreign debt: €7.3 tn
€117,580 Foreign debt per person 436% Foreign debt to GDP 81% Govt debt to GDP
Risk Status: LOW

The UK has very large amounts of overseas debt, of which the biggest component is the banking industry. The high debt to GDP ratio is explained by the UK's active financial sector, where there is a great deal of capital movement. This level of overall external debt is generally not seen as a problem because the UK also holds high-value assets. Having said this, the UK economy remains in the doldrums and the country is highly exposed to Irish as well as Italian and Portuguese debt. The UK in turn owes hundreds of billions to Germany and Spain.



18 November 2011 Last updated at 04:20 ET
The text being discussed is available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696
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