Burgess COMMENTARY

Peter Burgess

National security is a state of mind, something we feel or sense.

U.S. national security is a state of mind, something we feel or sense. It is a way of being affected by and having an effect on the world, rather than an absolute state of existence that can be precisely defined in everyday life. Nonetheless, some people have strong views about the state of national security, with one person believing (for what seem valid reasons) that the nation is secure from its enemies while another (for equally valid reasons) sees great dangers looming. The Calvert-Henderson National Security Indicator articulates the state of the nation's ability to protect its vital interests and the American way of life against unwanted intrusions and influences. The process and pressures that impinge on the formation and execution of national security policies are examined, ranging from the public's perception of a threat of war, to the President's national security strategy, the Congressional budget, and international diplomatic relations.

Comparing the early rhetoric and actions of the Bush Administration to those of its Democratic predecessor illustrates once again the overall continuity of American foreign policy. Forces exerting greater influence on thinking about national strategy include the expectation that foreign terrorists will strike U.S. territory sometime before 2020 or 2025; the rise in the number of major armed conflicts throughout the world; sharp jumps in both arms transfer deliveries and world military expenditures; and the potential for petroleum-producing states to start buying arms again (with rising oil revenues) and disposing of old weapons to less wealthy countries. Moreover, the Indicator shows a growing imbalance between military strategies and preventive activities through diplomacy.

In the near term, expect military units, equipment, and vehicles to be smaller, easier to transport, more agile, at least as lethal, and operated by robots. The real military challenge will be one of integrating the new force structures and weapons of the individual services to mold a military whose contributions in peace and war to national security remains strong and responsive.

National Security Expert: Colonel Daniel M. Smith, Ret.

Update on National Security in the United States (March 2005)

Update on National Security in the United States (April 2003)

Table 1. Names and Dates of International Treaties Since 1948

Figure 1. Major Armed Conflicts, 1986-2002

Figure 2. Value of World Arms Transfer Deliveries, 1978-1997

Figure 3. Worldwide Military Expenditures, 1978-1997

Table 2. Completed Peacekeeping Missions

Table 3. Current Peacekeeping Missions, May 15, 2003

Figure 4. International Terrorist Incidents, 1977-2004 and 2005-2010

The following statement appears in the 2007 'National Counterterrorism Center: Annex of Statistical Information' in the 'Country Reports on Terrorism', Released by the Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism, April 30, 2008: Starting with the 2005 results, NCTC, working with a panel of terrorism experts, adopted a revised methodology for counting terrorist incidents, basing it on the broader statutory definition of 'terrorism' rather than that of 'international terrorism' on which the NCTC based its incident counting in years prior to 2004.

This change causes the incident count to jump from several hundred to over ten thousand. Therefore, a separate figure is presented for incidents after 2004.

Figure 5. Casualties Caused by International Terrorism, 1970-2000