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ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN Bloomberg: China Has Nothing to Hang On To: William Lee, Milken Institute Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyRdKVIGUoY Peter Burgess COMMENTARY It should be remembered that it is not easy to interpret economic data, and it is very easy to inject thinking that suits a particular point of view. In this case William Lee is expressing conclusions about the Chinese economic system at this particular time that conform with my own thinking ... but is this the true reality? I fear it is not. It is comfortable to conclude that China cannot afford a war over Taiwan, but Nazi Germany could not afford a war in Europe in the 1930s, but it was building up a war capability that mitigated Germany's economic crisis as they built a war capability in secrecy prior to WWII. The nasty fact is that preparing for war is a powerful economic stimulus, and William Lee seems to be making the point that China (and President Xi) is in great need of economoic stimulus for China right now. I think I am right ... I think Keynes made this argument during the post WWI conference related to reparations against Germany, and resigned from his position at the time. My own father who was a rugby player went with a team to play in Germany against a team from the 'Britsh Army of the Rhine' shortly after the end of WWI and observed the inflation that gripped Germany ... he talked of people going with wheelbarrows of Reichmarks to stores to buy a loaf of bread. It made an impression on my father who was about 20 years old at the time. Fast forward to China recent years and particularly now in 2022 ... the China has had about 40 years of strong economic progress, not so much driven by economic strength in China but because of global trade and the capacity of the Chinese people to be economically productive relative to the world. The investment (money) to do this came from the world more than it came from inside C hina. Peter Burgess | ||
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China Has Nothing to Hang On To: William Lee, Milken Institute
Bloomberg Markets and Finance Aug 15, 2022 Bill Lee, Chief Economist at the Milken Institute discusses the latest economic data out of China and the slow down the country is facing. 1.34M subscribers ... 256,833 views
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