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Professor H. Eugene Stanley

Honorary Doctorate Award Ceremony for H. Eugene Stanley

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Peter Burgess

Honorary Doctorate Award Ceremony for H. Eugene Stanley

The main talk on physics and its use in economics starts at 30:12 if anyone is interested. 

Published on Mar 11, 2013

Honorary Doctorate Award Ceremony for H. Eugene Stanley (Boston University, William Fairfield Warren Distinguished Professor, Professor of Physics, Professor of Chemistry, Professor of Biomedical Engineering, Professor of Physiology, and Director, Center for Polymer Studies).

Lucca, Italy, October 22nd, 2012 Category Education License Standard YouTube License

1:09:53 / 1:10:25 Honorary Doctorate Award Ceremony for H. Eugene Stanley IMT Lucca IMT Lucca Subscribe115 Add to Share More 588 views 3 0 Transcript

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0:01it's a great to hold off too 0:03to a five-year 0:04for me to be here today as a directory and key 0:08and will have the engine start early 0:12to acquire colombian 0:14an honorary doctorate economics 0:19uh... 0:21he kisi possible for me to some other user 0:25account for he's caveat 0:28disease has lied to be prepared 0:32you know that 0:34you see from turned his life 0:37that the jeans valley 0:38kaspar batista 0:41more than one thousand one hundred 0:44give u uh... because 0:47received about 0:49fifty five thousand 0:51citations 0:53is uh... 0:54ichi index is uh... 0:57one hundred forty 1:00his supervisor useful advised about uh... 1:03ninety four 1:04ninety two t i don't know the exact numbers dennis 1:08ph d thesis 1:10so he's going to bhushan 1:13few z_x_ to science 1:16i think uh... we can summarize heat tweed tools 1:20in di kita sama does not bands 1:23not to 1:25genes dot me 1:27knows 1:28that it is impossible to summarize they've gone to bush and he gave to 1:31science and quality lives there 1:34many of us 1:35one of the woods in different fields 1:38ranging from 1:40biomed dcm 1:42click on all mix 1:43to fiji xx 1:45ha because hov 1:48eugenia was a peak 1:49because of 1:51uh... what dvd's forty young scientists 1:54and uh... for sciences 1:57in many ways 1:59he's achievement in academic leadership included the massachusetts professor of 2:03the yet in nineteen ninety two 2:05the boats man 2:07mangoes 2:08the national science foundation distinguish teachers call uprising two 2:12thousand one 2:14is an unelected demanded of the 2:18national academy of sciences so the united states have seen some two 2:21thousand four 2:26he's book 2:27introduction 2:29two-phase then zeeshan simply think of phenomena 2:32bob please make a major new lista de precios 2:35heyn nineteen seventy one 2:40received 2:42an incredible amount of safety shins and steel 2:46the states of the book 2:48demo statements fifty-fifty linkback 2:51but the book uh... 2:54and he's having 2:56on on science 2:58and then he cool thing to do it 3:00twenty seven additional books 3:03one important contribution 3:06any disease one of 3:08the publications den 3:12fifty-five 3:14his contribution 3:16freakonomics is the book that the published together with his argument it 3:20my mount kenya 3:22again for cambridge university press which has been translated in five 3:26different languages 3:28which is introduction click on a few chicks 3:32gina 3:35has always deakin 3:36on you might that insures 3:40week bully gsa 3:42www 3:43a good friend of mine said gave wounded as 3:46reminds 3:47to me every time what seagate deedrick 3:51for hyun and for science 3:54during his views eats 3:55in soviet union 3:58starting from the seventies i think 4:01uh... 4:03and then no 4:06is also 4:08involved 4:10on many issues 4:11related to gender equality in science 4:14for reaching was awarded the 4:16the american physical society 4:18nico son made in two thousand three 4:25i want to 4:27i don't want to summarize what jeanne stanley deeded 4:31in order to establish a beijing connection 4:34i think that action between physics and economics 4:38you can go back to this 4:39for his life 4:41uh... but they want to fall closer on few 4:45bowling sir 4:46and that is a division labeled we had to be done 4:49it is to say i'm for also and so on 4:52and i've tried to give you some 4:53insights and so teens 4:55on uh... he's going to be bhushan 4:58handy economic analyses 5:02and union our leaders of the a_t_m_ 5:04economic systems that were to be an economy 5:07starting from uh... 5:09d_d_t_ coming together to come work you do you do to get it we've called looser 5:15union business 5:18in indianapolis is a means to be making economic systems 5:23uh... heidi's goal that the for the first time in the work of professor 5:26style debate eating uh... beeper that that that was published in nature 5:32india of nineteen ninety six 5:35and that they thought it was a paper faulk was seeing and 5:40showing 5:41a look at that time 5:43seemed to me and striking 5:47phot 5:48striking fucked by you leaking some of the assumptions uh... hall of 5:53economic theory 5:54before that date 5:56and dipping was 5:58on the relationship 6:00as it was on tool 6:02and if it but 6:03today's the attention of the economic community 6:06onto 6:07different fonts 6:08for some for the relationship between the body and sd 6:11of the reeked of gold the rates of growth 6:15of economic entities 6:16that the people of people have business films 6:20decides 6:22all of those entities 6:24the reason 6:26there was a benchmark which is the so-called jbartolf proportional effect 6:31that this reaching lies 6:34that the relationship between the rate of growth of an economic entity 6:39in the meantime 6:40of dots 6:41that economic entity 6:43uh... 6:45he's independent so that it took group 6:47is independent 6:49from two sides according to doctor reporters he said 6:53the prediction in terms of the relationship between the body and soul 6:56go today it's uh... 6:58and different sites plus he said 7:01was violated in fact that by the our little that was found in the in the 7:07indian native people 7:08which will showing 7:10i don't believe yellow relationship between 7:13the standard deviation of the dates of gold 7:16and decides of an economic 7:19reading bought and implications uh... 7:21indent alleys of economic instability in get uneasy with the impact of sides in 7:25the identification valenti begins the beginning of the insistence 7:31the second 7:32and medi-cal evidence that was producing that people who was on the sheet 7:36of the group three distribution 7:40handyman important on grade you because that causes a 7:44economists 7:50that is out kind of a long tradition in generalities uh... 7:55of the relationship between benin 7:57of a given 7:58what at least bringing down alleys of this 8:00first two moments 8:02on a given 8:03statistical distribution 8:05not on the analysis of the five she 8:08on the statistical distribution 8:10and important point about the ducks shape it was a gain violation 8:16imagine friended bt can investigation from that fact 8:19of some of the act 8:21mainstay might bolt disease that we had assuming that the good old city 8:25distribution was abortion 8:29and on the contrary 8:30the paper shold that the did go to reduce the bhushan willows 8:35represented by a double exponential distributions at these route 8:39properties 8:41don do want that 8:42one would be the 8:43according to the today to the mainstream 8:46and these 8:47important point because the frequency 8:50on the extreme events 8:52willows 8:53much larger than that 8:55the he'll be 8:57was predicting 8:59using panel technique i was 9:02language 9:03because of the fact that uh... 9:04reading the room 9:06that not only fuses houston 9:08and economists uh... uh... and scientists but that also 9:13students uh... thrown including candy for them to come out 9:20dosto farts 9:21abducted being first of a few distinguished economists 9:25first before professor don't stop to unfortunately cannot be done with us 9:30but he is here with us 9:32today for several reasons 9:33john stockton professor of economics at the london school of economics 9:38the bengal 9:39uh... papon trying to explain the powers of trying to account for deposits dot to 9:44an emerging 9:45from two p decal analysis and 9:47that that was published in the nature of people 9:51and then 9:52we stopped at 9:53several economists distracted 9:56tried to replicate 9:58those investigations on different datasets 10:03really be scolded the storm of the export means that the professor stanley 10:07found 10:08he needs the sending of defense 10:10because i am i'd put the did the first one but then the date that i have it be 10:13possible example the paper 10:15that that to be a good week the and cold flu so they publish sunday 10:20differently to gauge for moving from films to companies and they being the 10:24finding the basin export 10:30professor stockton decided to organize a session print by session 10:36i think women take society 10:38columnar 10:41these analyses 10:46the relationship between 10:48decides 10:49the girls 10:50and give our audience of the rates of growth 10:53of different going on we can get this 10:55and disease rather payment for the first time professor stanley 11:00and easy's where our collaborations dot 11:04then uh... 11:05on the contributions 11:10professor studying quote those 11:12gain to defining 11:13i'm very simple and passing warriors a stochastic of framework 11:18which accounts for 11:20four differently we'll oddities india knowledges 11:24in in india knowledge is self uh... home 11:28dig rules of economic systems 11:31first 11:32i gain 11:32the relationship between the body and ps 11:35of growth rates and science 11:37second the shape of the group to distinguish enough growth rates 11:42though the group distribution food 11:45the shape 11:46of the size distribution 11:48i'd be for eleven summer vacation 11:51fourth the relationship between didn't mean of the date of growth 11:56demean 11:57of sites 11:59so y 12:01and then move to some of the 12:03more generally shuster 12:07these findings visa portuguese contribution is important 12:12we believe that 12:15distinguished economists like said you could be 12:17jones soft on and many others 12:21we leave i've 12:22unblinking 12:24some fundamental 12:26going to be motion accompli a fundamental contribution to economic 12:29analysis 12:31i'll try to summarize from different perspectives 12:34fanciful because when you find 12:37regularities 12:38in social economic phenomena 12:40across the defender means in the process 12:44and you know as an economist but don't domain saying that that's it 12:50how do you frnds by different mechan stds 12:53then if you find that very same exponents the very same laws porting 12:58does different domains 13:01we do believe 13:03that davies i'm going to be zone 13:05to go stochastic and see 13:07it is to say to to look for 13:10very seeing pulling genitals 13:14stochastic framework 13:16dakia respectively 13:18all of specific assumptions or or assumptions the cc too 13:24domain accounts for does a good like this 13:28and is a very important i would say please the lord to contend with the 13:31political instincts 13:32lesson foot economists 13:34because sometimes and and clearly csa 13:37we did had a kind of a not to go to the ground cuse me for for that 13:44provocation 13:45sometimes we are very sophisticated and reach 13:49meaning we'd make band 13:51more discipline on the clothes 13:53dot old for a very specific 13:56fuck united a specific domain 13:59that cannot be it if they keep it denied that 14:01nodded 14:03sublease these idea isn't 14:06if i'd find it a bloody peace u 14:10domains that that's so different 14:12then it's better to keep reminding would do 14:15distinct list 14:17ass posible 14:18in order to make it 14:20powerful in general enough to account for those different variations 14:25so distinct first boston one more than six is that 14:32on 14:37you know fund a paradox here 14:39in economics but do you think i don't see continuity here 14:43dismally obsession 14:45uh... but i do see a strong continuity between their work indeed and it would 14:49propose 14:50done my head but simon 14:52and cool things 14:53uh... many years ago 14:56second point 14:58and i'll try to keep it short 15:01second point is 15:03appropriateness 15:05of dole's simple 15:06modes 15:08what does that mean 15:09on his knee 15:10the cup ability of a very spicy mowing it was a stochastic framework uh... 15:15to replicate the decree been beastie boosh instead then you upset completed 15:22because if the more the leasing for goes wrong 15:25than that 15:26uh... packing replicating the accounting for the fact that 15:30then we have a parole 15:32second point 15:34in terms of appropriateness is the pros abt 15:37or the very simple 15:39framework and a very simple mechanism is 15:41the we put the pork as explanatory may concern 15:45weeding 15:46reading the more dense and across the different them 15:52and this is another important point because uh... 15:56one of the first meeting sri harder to write the the first bapak 16:00now but interesting discussion because i told him that the purpose of fun 16:04on the left by lifespan 16:06lied and told me with this 16:08stylized we only know via phone 16:11if i thought the zafar acted then you need it 16:14to be able to replicate 16:15the fucking beefing data sets with the independent upset relations 16:19anything finding that those finding set up to look at 16:23and independent means that you are well 16:26which is made of the outbox 16:28if they thought this post i realized at the end of that is i would probably get 16:32these not the fact is i'm not too far 16:34reach easy introduced in order to 16:37or justify 16:38solemn do mathematical assumptions the bed then make the life 16:43of the 16:44uh... her 16:45on the of the of the of doable goals we need to write the mold it's he 16:52so these are not that important point 16:55uh... important point is that 16:58coming back to be violations 17:01of the few t 17:02hall and the analysis of business from groove 17:07there was an assumption and deadline 17:09the perfect awarding reach of many gulshan distributions 17:13that we use them to use of midnight peace 17:16under these you've got people it is 17:19used to say you have a very nice 17:22untreatable 17:23gauche in distribution 17:25and then the facts 17:27that's happened to be outside these two bhushan dot outlines 17:32so that the audition not account for those extreme events but because the dog 17:36big stevens 17:39exceptions 17:41you know you know you're as an economist who do not need to take into account 17:48for example 17:51duties that 17:54analogy 17:55between what you do you do 17:57and what does the environment in the analysis of the earthquakes 18:02because you find 18:05for example of the golden didn't make that 18:08statistical formula 18:10recheck pounds 18:11for this day distinguishing the probability density function 18:14of the intensity of etc weeks 18:17then that you see that they few plot 18:20the frequency 18:22of those events 18:24all that i've double nobody can 18:26doubleday beneath his skin 18:27you find that a strike line 18:30and you see that you don't count 18:32appliance 18:33because all of the facts all 18:36being entities 18:40along this pipeline 18:41and disease 18:42the demonstration 18:44on the fact that you have a more than a statistical formula we check out sort of 18:48for the extreme events 18:51and disease the notion of plywood lows they've been uh... 18:54has been influencing 18:57they are not uses of economic instability 19:00i'm thinking about uh... important b acctually important papers tunes and bob 19:06mister deported economics and then exactly lurking 19:11and and and and 19:13and showing 19:14hollow if you are the 19:15completion seven michael landon because 19:18of the presence of those experiences then go through tuitions propagate the 19:23parliament modification wittindia callin 19:26and uh... that michael levin's dvd media economy to houston 19:29affect them up to macroeconomic instability begins at six 19:33so we have not thought about exit date five yet talking about uh... 19:37complete uh... 19:38uh... representations of the economic ah... life in economics you spencer 19:43that simply would not seen as part of something that republic spleen 19:48minefield 19:49with outside dewitt appliance 19:52so the idea that you don't bob box dot that mississippi and lives back 19:57your t_v_ may be wrong 19:59came to my mind 20:00and stupid 20:01fainted and i think this is an important simple 20:04but the fundamental contribu shin of the interplay between statistical physics 20:10economics 20:13so let's understand the big ones 20:14let's understand the due date 20:16let's take into account the bose corporation suite in the community you 20:20have 20:20and i think you'll end up with a there 20:22getting your presentation of facts 20:26post-op yap 20:28weed a few remarks 20:32uh... which are somehow 20:34the challenges and feed and which are part of the ongoing visitors 20:38in this field 20:40first of all week reno 20:45like you know craftsmanship i would say 20:48the appropriateness is that the key 20:50is that the key thing because when you have a 20:53these people sherman molded swee chye general enough 20:56the of the problem of conditioning upon condemned unconditional 21:01this is a bit of normal distribution for example of the party to these two 21:04abortion can be generated by a man yet that naked 21:07stochastic processes 21:08and if you want to condition upon 21:12then let you go back into the appropriateness features that there was 21:15uh... that there was a that there was a reason before 21:19another point is that what kind of theater said we're talking about 21:24i'm not very simple-minded their son and i think that these up 21:28methodological implication 21:32the word that you started for us 21:35has social scientists and isaac 21:37b_t_u_'s they use a few days 21:39outset 21:40approximations 21:42successive approximations 21:44of leon 21:46because i do when you start to lead a very simple and more than 21:49you'll always have find that as that these two companies to reach mighty 21:52leads 21:56to some extent 21:57the predictions of them 21:59but it is not because of the violations that you should disney's the mold 22:03on the contrary it is good youth the more than a simple enough 22:08to concede that the violation too 22:10asked looked like a second approximation 22:13accused the state walk down 22:16deviations 22:19from the 22:19from duty jim 22:21and to explain then you're fucked 22:25psalm integration of division 22:27so the idea is to use this link bull 22:29framework the scene poster plastic frameworks 22:32like benchmarks for more deliberative 22:35uh... economic q_v_c_ shins 22:39and i gain easing portent 22:41to deal with all of us 22:42wolf and which facts 22:45need to be 22:46additional structure of the key 22:49and on the continuity what sandwich box other they'd be explained 22:53a given 22:55when it is another point that we have tried to 22:59to work on 23:00we have uh... here for example national 23:03jacob warning was work 23:05king intensively and uh... 23:08which is the 23:13how cool 23:14you could use 23:15morning bulldozers that these because basting 23:18of some of the predictions uh... 23:21that that generated the bible's 23:23simple stochastic remarks 23:28being aware of the fact that the soul was difficult 23:32is always possible to find a key squid response replies 23:37i give in 23:40i give a statistical 23:42so eve 23:42that you have enough the 23:44today's out unclean sick problem do you know establishing that he grows 23:50danced on on uh... sample defense he said 23:53among different distribution on me 23:55motives 23:57but there is also 23:59but he's also important to develop 24:02statistical theory says that the second more thats 24:05that allow loss 24:07to barely with us on the perfect up at the clinics to be my point is you said 24:10another 24:12it's a challenge is not is 24:14i would say he's different he had a and at the same time 24:18i do see that with some comments but these for short 24:22being cut played between impeding coming econometric investigations that these to 24:26get this thing 24:27and uh... 24:28they are not easy selva uh... produced by city see confuse existing import 24:36and finally that he's an outdated usually check trying to to explore here 24:42uh... also thanks to the prison read and presence within the faculty of a diverse 24:47a set of competencies that engine from 24:49pure mathematics to 24:51to statistical physics rechter we've got a disturbing input of the book within a 24:55call and we'll come daily 24:58that is to say 24:59anyday 25:00came out of the it is to say 25:03the relationship between passing on your sister passed to give free more except 25:08and topological representations of complex easton sweet discrete methods 25:14that uh... that can be used in acts as an exploitative device in order to 25:17depict the some of the property said that they've been uh... had on uh... the 25:22evolution of complex uh... stochastic moves 25:26uh... i think we all need that to be shortened so i have a default if i do 25:31analytical predicted myself 25:34uh... 25:36but no 25:37if u are 25:39if u convened mebbe 25:42because now it's time 25:43before it is uh... 25:45collected at the values 25:48for me too 25:51to hold 25:54professor stanley 25:57he's going to bush into science 26:00his leadership the weeding the community of statistical fees it's an economics is 26:04a role as a gong baker 26:07you didn't have jg interdisciplinary science of the kind of physics 26:12hang up on the recommendation of the executive an academic consonants 26:16alignment t 26:18and by that bill total t all of the needs to be of education of the italian 26:22government 26:24hi proof read up on you that they'd be off the laws of of doctor of philosophy 26:29on the lease comes out 26:30unical 26:32markets institutions 26:34so it certainly i date on the and uh... andrews 26:55hopeful 27:06uh... 27:12so you cannot imagine that 27:15prowl on holiday because that wasn't my last formal actor as the the director of 27:21the institute 27:23and so 27:24i could not 27:27to have a bet that john said to conclude my mandate of the directory diese 27:32we dispute or not 27:33i now invite professor stanley to give you selected a full bodies and fight the 27:39then you signs of a kind of physics 27:40thank you 27:52thank you or offer coverage 27:54and very deeply touched 27:56see this audience 27:57i might point out to those who were standing i cant denying npcs 28:02and there may be more if people leader in the park 28:04so why should you be spending 28:06repeated that received scattered around 28:10it to see somebody stuffed with foam with spending for the support of his 28:14return 28:16made out of the worst city 28:19so before i begin i'd like to make a dedication 28:22of this park 28:23too 28:25uh... the director now x director 28:28of the intended 28:29through this staff of the into a students of the intended to the fact 28:33that 28:34and pink 28:35this dedication unlike many others is for it 28:38not only doing good work by creating something out of nothing warmly this is 28:44the great accomplishment and went to a friend to graduate school 28:49and every time the uh... love dies down there 28:53the president said our goal is to keep harvard number one how boring 28:58and now i'm in the university there was really was awful and its still pretty 29:04awful and some things but it's very good and others 29:07and when we have meetings art main messages we have to figure out how to 29:12read boston university the best 29:15and it is a totally different attitude and what fabio come only and all the 29:19people that have come here to work with him 29:22share in common is a vision that education 29:26in italy in fact in the entire world 29:29can be much better that it is 29:31and i really commend you for that is not easy 29:34not to mention the physical facilities which i've witnessed since 29:38first 29:39came here and 29:41uh... enthusiasm of the students in the facts that everyone knows that students 29:46here 29:47treated equally regardless of the country they come from 29:50the language they speak 29:52and so forth 29:53congradulations 29:55so now i have about twenty minutes left because you are a few thoughts with you 29:59and i think to be honest fargo did a better job than i am doing so if you are 30:05getting a little tired and is a nice time to let your eyes slowly go down 30:09and have a little twenty minute rest 30:13yeah overawed died in question and a good talk as a opened with a question 30:18is camps is this really contribute to economics 30:22and 30:23aaye tried to make a uh... a few little bullet points 30:27based on my own experience of 30:29oh other of uh... prescription that might enable 30:33physicist to contribute 30:35and is actually quite different 30:37than what many physicist thing to do to contribute 30:40the first in my opinion is to get a partner in the subject field 30:44disconcerted dobson financed 30:47without such a partner 30:48you could not go to reinvent the wheel but you don't even know the terms you 30:52don't know 30:53basically anything and there is no conceivable way you can learn all of 30:57economics 30:58in a short period of time people who studied denom expended for seven or 31:01eight years 31:03secondly 31:04is to respect data 31:06noli respects your partner 31:09the respect david this is already a deviating point from the activities of 31:14many economists who respects theory very highly and data to some degree but at 31:20the data don't agree with you re 31:22we already heard from five p o the term they use an outline 31:26and uh... you could imagine for newton's laws if decidedly i started to levitate 31:32duan's they offer just an outline 31:35charisma 31:36and to replace the law and the second and third point is still always ask the 31:41question 31:41what if anything uh... the data telling us sometimes they don't know if there's 31:45anything ages for at random scrabble 31:48frequently there are messages have been invaded particularly when one looks a 31:52bit data big data 31:53is in modern at work 31:55for basically everyday too 31:57different parts of the dinner hands on 31:59and that number is growing super exponentially faster than expand and 32:03chill for reasons we all know 32:06and third or fourth point is 32:08uh... too 32:10each finding you find to try to us attach a number of torque for example i 32:15said big date is growing faster than expected she'll but that pressure we 32:19would ask is what what is the loss of these were law data in terrible law so 32:24why do you want to quantify because you may be surprised you may see some 32:28connection with something else 32:31fifth ng is uh... do not be team it went really candid means to not be frightened 32:38the experts in the field 32:40who will laugh and laugh and when 32:42they're not laughing still criticize and worse ways sometimes not far below 32:46permalink 32:47or john stockton and so forth 32:49but many will 32:50for example 32:51uh... i i think that physicists 32:53uh... often do 32:55uh... is to aggregate data 32:57to take alda stocks together for example and throw them in a big posh 33:02and instead of a two hundred thousand they do have a few hundred million data 33:06why would you do that reporting away information and the answer is if you 33:11study the kinds of events that mattered to all of us in this world war two rare 33:15events rearming uh... bad things to really bad things that fortunately are 33:21rare 33:22that you don't want to be you you want to detect that signal on the way you 33:26detected of course is too 33:29uh... aggregated data just isn't that great stations uh... there is not just 33:33one station to study earthquakes for stations all over the world 33:38and then the most difficult thing of all is to try to see if they're any 33:42connections between various findings for example when we study stock fluctuations 33:47we have price for two reasons would you read about everyday in the newspaper 33:51but we also have fluctuations in volume which also printed in the newspaper 33:56volatility which are not going to make a big calculated on your in your pc 34:02things that have a little more subtle like entered trade times why would you 34:06be interested in things like this 34:07whether you may give clues and they may not disclose 34:10but if they're there at the data is sitting there 34:13why should they just sick 34:15and you might think that my guide economics is a huge field surely people 34:19as gifted mathematically is economists 34:22have analyzed every piece data they could get their hands off but there are 34:26many reasons why they have not one is that they're not rays to analyze data 34:31economics von uh... mister generation the smell of charge is not raise to have 34:37a huge amounts of data but instead to do theory big plot sometime soon 34:41try to understand try to understand but not to let the data and when gaidar 34:45needed does is hard to believe they hire a 34:49uh... and assisted loaded directly for a spirit of god in economics of course was 34:54river partner 34:55and i look at his budget 34:57and he had a full-time assistant 34:59as a uh... what's that for and he said to do the calculations gifted 35:04defeat the point is there someone else does it that statistics they know it's 35:08whatever they learned in the book 35:10and i've never that much beyond least-squares fit or or some other much 35:14more complicated thing but they will look at the exact levy distributions of 35:18not to mention powers which are not so the person who should be in charge in my 35:22opinion 35:23of data is 35:26investigator himself or herself 35:28and last for those who can make a theory 35:31i'd and not very good at this point some kent try to make some theory that 35:36somehow connects the facts 35:38the smiley faces that 35:40is that uh... 35:41is the facts of facts or even if they're called stylized facts 35:45uh... the earliest facts theory is is only theory 35:48and theories come and go and almost every theory in physics has has uh... 35:53involved him inside 35:55summer completely wrong somebody's partially wrong even laws of evolved 36:00newton's laws are no longer valid we know that under certain conditions at 36:04einstein helpless appreciate 36:06so let's move on 36:08so this is uh... edgar a brief outline of what i'm going to talk about today 36:12which is something new i don't like to talk about all things surfer's life or 36:17death 36:18through embarrassing and uh... specially talk about all things were to my clever 36:23it is a city in this role fob leo 36:26possible rice-a-roni 36:28and other former students such as alex peterson is sitting here 36:31and uh... would just the barracks remove i tried to talk about something that was 36:36uh... five or ten years also i'm going to talk about work 36:39bhaiya 36:41uh... equally brilliant graduate student alex pedersen name to be as price who 36:46uh... uh... 36:47uh... just now was awarded a faculty position network war rick w_ a_ r_ w_ i_ 36:53c_ k_ is a leading british university 36:55trying to overcome 36:57overtake a cambridge 36:59and uh... 37:01and uh... uh... 37:02the question that we announced here 37:07how can we quantify fluctuations playing different kinds scales 37:12and a range of timescales will consider ranges over nine orders of magnitude 37:16from milliseconds 37:19of two months or even years 37:21and uh... 37:22and the key thing that fascinates me 37:25is 37:26finance 37:27is we all care about the average rewind the average growth of the company of the 37:32country or a company 37:34to be a a certain number of the bigger the better everywhere no who has that 37:37same ambition 37:38however if you look in the newspaper all you see a zig-zag curves 37:44the market is cut constantly switching from going up 37:47the going document charging kept going back up 37:51main won't surprise you that this switching occurs on all-time skills if 37:55you examine on the millisecond time scale 37:58who see the switching 37:59and you examine on the long term time scale of the reasons for this project 38:04nineteen twenty nine was an example of a very bad switch 38:07that took a long time before that 38:09markets for tobacco 38:11uh... it would be some i collaborators uh... rosario mime type guy could first 38:16because he was a postdoc in our group and he is the person more than anyone 38:20who persuaded me that these 38:23finance section of the newspaper had more utility that just using those paper 38:28to live my kid inbox 38:30which is roughly what i do that 38:34and got to be really interested in this subject 38:37sharm-el haven't thirty boulder f of worked with me on this from the 38:40beginning 38:41you already know i've mentioned fabio family muster morita bony 38:45alex peterson is here 38:46and the young 38:47uh... the recent graduate 38:49is to be a surprise and along number of other people including you i really like 38:54that uh... collaborators 38:56probably know 38:57and uh... 38:58and so uh... if anybody disinterested 39:02and i'd like to acknowledge cambridge university press which for most of us in 39:07physics is the preeminent publisher of physics books 39:11and the editor for the last thirty years of 39:14cambridge university press simon kitman 39:17came all the way from cambridge england here 39:21and i'm deeply touched by since coming here 39:23and of course he came for a reason because we wanted to discuss 39:27a book that's just about finished called thoroughfare tentative title rise and 39:32fall of business firms 39:33with these people 39:37bubbles 39:38weather but about bubbles for theresa about bubbles everywhere we know they're 39:42they can be very back isaac newton there could be bad he lost all his money in 39:47the south sea bubble and he was famous for its training at that time 39:51i can distort 39:53the laws that govern 39:55the everything on the planet 39:57everything in there 39:58simply solar system given everything in the universe 40:01but i don't understand economics 40:03and and uh... and that's still true 40:06no one really understands economics 40:08and allocate the approach 40:13part of the public effect is due to the fact 40:16that there are not just one trader in the market but many traders and they're 40:21strongly interacting with each other not because they know each other 40:25they usually don't know each other but they all look at the same computer 40:29screen to see the effects of everything that's going on more or less 40:33instantaneously and their job is to react to that quickly 40:37and not slow 40:39okay 40:41so 40:44but i need to say more about that 40:46so let's start with something we all recognize talk a little fast on this 40:50this is what you see every day in the newspaper 40:53plots of 40:55the price of something 40:56against high 40:57this is over forty years 40:59long period 41:01a stock average ridge is the commonly watch of the 41:04top five hundred 41:06firms 41:07u_s_a_ 41:09and we all know that goes up and down and up and down up and down 41:13here the top hurriedly actually intercourse facts 41:17and the bottom curve 41:18is the model that still used on wall street today 41:22it's a symbol not of the dates back over a century 41:25due to a student upon parayan harassment by sunday 41:30and he said 41:31this looks like around the world 41:33if in fact to be very precise there was no running water and he he invented that 41:37time's up 41:38but he modeled this as a drunken walker 41:42who throws a calling 41:44and if it's heads goes up 41:46not to convince tales goes down about 41:49and as you see it does a pretty good job is a completely honest debate are honest 41:53andrew in the and the uh... 41:54theory is honest and that's why it's usable st 41:58however if you look closely 42:00excuse me 42:03if you look closely at the data 42:05the red curve lucy events like black monday here 42:08where markets everywhere in the world lost approximately twenty five percent 42:13of their value 42:14it's doesn't look so be here because the lord scale 42:18but uh... and to lose twenty five percent that means the drunk 42:23a huge number of steps 42:25in the 42:25in the down direction 42:27the probability of this attorney from a random walk is tender the power minus 42:33two hundred forty-eight 42:34please essentially never not alleged time of the universe but many lifetimes 42:39of the universe 42:40so this model although it's used for convenience 42:44because very tractable gives 42:47at functions that mathematicians are are happy about because you can 42:51say something 42:53uh... even though it'd be good mimics much of the data it misses the rare 42:57events but of course is just the rare events that we're all worried about 43:01so what do we do 43:02when did we say the first thing you do is figure collaborator 43:07and we took a 43:08remains ave dot dot 43:10who is now an endowed chair professor 43:12and starting school in new york 43:14and also one 43:15uh... two major economics prizes in the last three years 43:19uh... and what is this in the same color scheme 43:22in red 43:23of the data 43:24not for the prize but for the change of price which are called returns 43:29and you see for example an eighty-seven these big negatives fight 43:33which you may not have been no most people don't 43:36is a very short it's after there was a huge positive spike in the units are 43:40standard deviations 43:42so this positive strike 43:44is almost twenty 43:45standard deviations and same for the negative spike 43:48and so far and so on 43:50and contrast the coliseum 43:52and never fletcher is beyond about five standard deviations of six 43:56whatsoever 43:57but never 43:58never twenty 43:59uh... and 44:00therefore this curve looks totally different than the skirt 44:04whereas in the previous liability integral of this 44:07uh... is usually confused for being pretty close to the real thing 44:11they're very few people would say this black 44:14resembles that's 44:16now what what can be stated palace 44:18and uh... mandel broached 44:20may you rest in peace 44:22uh... was one of the pioneers 44:24in agreeing to 44:26uh... uh... economics and finance 44:28empirical analysis 44:31weekend in the spirit of man who wrote 44:33asked where did the details 44:35first of all the we just said the data show that that 44:39there for two reasons are knocked out here 44:41this was of course noone before 44:44manda brody even 44:45but but not appreciated how serious it was and in fact 44:50the data we'll see in a minute support up our in fact inverse two big hollow 44:55which you could see with the i bike 44:56simply asking how many events are more than five standard deviations sixty four 45:01if you come from 45:02how many more than ten there's a how many more than twenty there's only one 45:06black monday 45:07so from the sequence 45:09of sixty four f eight and one 45:12each time you 45:13it's time you double the x-axis the standard deviations 45:17you can see that this is an inverse cubic lar 45:19you double 45:20is too 45:21and you 45:22nato s common by a factor of two q or eight 45:26and you can see other things that are known qualitatively the big events 45:30cluster what's called volatility clustering 45:33again something it's unknown 45:35uh... qualitatively uh... but uh... 45:38but not quantified 45:40and uh... uh... that's something that that both of these things are something 45:44that 45:44are uh... little group would be you with all these collaborators our nation 45:48has and made a a positive steps and quantifying this 45:52and even more interesting 45:54is something that my intended it after we left our group with his student relo 45:59who's now right next door to pisa 46:02and that it was followed up on by alex peterson and and three others for others 46:07uh... a few years later is that the they that as you can see your for every shock 46:13there's an aftershock 46:15and the aftershocks sort of fall down gradually 46:18another shock and aftershocks 46:20just like earthquakes 46:22have aftershocks 46:23and in fact there is even aftershocks of each aftershock 46:28there's a shot there's aftershock 46:31and that they have to start generates more aftershocks 46:34and this sequence 46:36is if u think about it is a suggestive 46:41about power-law 46:42sort of behavior and that's exactly board his file 46:48so every said this already many times but now instead of using the eyeball we 46:52can actually 46:53analyzed data how many data 46:56gopi krishna employer ru uh... he's now at goldman sachs 47:00uh... it further ph d thesis 47:02analyzed 47:03uh... ever 47:04three trade of every stock 47:07in america 47:09uh... they uh... half over a period of the year two 47:12and they had 47:14cool hundred thousand data points that's two a two thousand traits 47:17and i thought i was in companies makes two hundred million a huge number of 47:21data point and because of that there's very little for tuition the symbols 47:26half of the positive tail half of the native tail but the really remarkable 47:29thing is the change in frequency of events 47:34drops by six orders of magnitude 47:36and it's still 47:38symbols of still on their straight line 47:41that means an event that's eight orders of magnitude were rare because this is a 47:44cumulative distribution 47:46eight orders of magnitude more rare is obeying the same law 47:50that everyday events all day 47:53and what does that mean that means number one there must be some 47:56fundamental mechanism we have to find what it is 47:58and secondly 48:00uh... it means 48:01that uh... uh... instead of study only those rare events would you have to sit 48:06around by going into a person around for a long time to say 48:10uh... you can study every day events 48:12and almost surely be doing 48:14properties that describes a rare occurrence 48:16so that's very fortunate 48:19her attorney teachers uh... 48:21and there are other things uh... for example everyone would wish that their 48:25stock prices were correlated but they're not this is an analog lineal plot 48:30so the express tradeline connotes exponential decay 48:34and they characteristic time is only four minutes so there is 48:38no 48:39correlations indo 48:41price however if you 48:43calculate not the appraiser returns but the absolute value of the price 48:48uh... it is that one measure of volatility 48:51then you find 48:52but the data of followed not an exponential fall-off but a power-law 48:57that's approximately straight 48:58from the something on the order of half a day after roughly fifty days correct 49:03orders of magnitude which is remarkable that means a bit 49:06ding volatility 49:08today 49:09will still be 49:10manifest in day to that take place 49:13it fifty days from now it's a really from commuter grumble 49:17so that data 49:19although looking at this you would say well they're not correlated 49:22but if you look at the absolute value there very much correlated 49:26so that means they're not serially independent 49:28wherever they are they're not independent something happens today it 49:32happens again in the future leary never call this independent and that's 49:36important to know because some people would like to think 49:39they are independent 49:40uh... we can skip that there's a law that describes volatility also good 49:44and there's a universality free take three totally different places paris 49:48london and new york 49:50and analyze something this happens to be 49:53you know volume uh... about almost anything does this 49:57uh... the data fall on the same 49:59uh... the same uh... straight-line with the same slope for all these different 50:04countries so there's a kind of your recite what does that mean 50:07that means 50:08it makes one optimistic that whatever it is that we still don't know 50:12that governs this fluctuations 50:15you know we use the word universal transportations but it is a 50:19it's a phenomenon 50:21that is governing fluctuations in all different places and one reason this 50:25additions are high is that every country in the world has some market 50:29every 50:30every few months someone analyzes the fluctuations of their country's market 50:34their favorite country wherever they are including 50:37countries that have economies that are quite different than paris london in new 50:40york and they find always the same thing 50:43with one exception uh... 50:47okay we can skip this but 50:49for mathematicians they're random matrix theory 50:51that was actually first used 50:53in physics by eugene vigor 50:55for a totally different application nuclear physics 50:58turns out to be useful 50:59for finding out who qualify 51:02when things are not random 51:04and and uh... and i don't think i'll tell you that except to say 51:07the win one 51:08performs the analysis one finds 51:11statistical properties of the same for different stocks better belong to the 51:16same industry sector 51:18so uh... i'm and for a woman 51:20from mars 51:21we landed in america planes flying saucer 51:25uh... doesn't know any of those three little three-letter codes means like 51:29idea p_p_l_ and so forth 51:31would be able to by simply looking at the numbers to say all all of those are 51:37companies there do other computers 51:40uh... and other and so forth but the the economy is broken into sectors and the 51:45sectors reflect themselves 51:47and very subtle cross correlations 51:49between the prices of one stock in another 51:52and how drunk cover those cross correlations is a challenge because many 51:56things look like a cross correlated you know if if if my wife sees me 52:01every evening walking 52:03under 52:04metro 52:05with the same 52:06beautiful young woman as you might say hey what's going on 52:10and i've course who say that your corn simmons and there's no way that no 52:14but in that the stock market cases to stocks look like they're correlated it's 52:19the same thing there's no way to know 52:21bailey except this random matrix theory and this is i want to point out 52:26almost everything 52:27you're here 52:28as even my father was saying our empirical analysis of data using 52:34the tools the of child learns from school 52:37rulers 52:38makeup histogram 52:40pack 52:40make a plot of your histogram all than that 52:43so in the paper two major 52:45and uh... this is exactly how about thirty percent of the referee report 52:49three 52:51believes that this is a work of such low intellectual inside the child could have 52:56done it 52:57and uh... so we had to fight back somehow and this is something that 53:01economists and even those visitors never heard of because they don't address 53:05these cross-correlation problems too much harder than correlations okay 53:10sows further 53:12are we doing on the time 53:13i'd almost time to stop so let's go back bigger brief summary 53:18but the fact fails as they're called out fat means just not calcium 53:23obey an inverse q burglar this is a new results and it seems to be universal for 53:28all countries of the world trip one 53:31that kills of other quiet is like volatility and so forth 53:35obey their own power laws usually with different exponents 53:39and that these exponents are interrelated a little like they are in 53:42physics where benjamin widow 53:44introduced some 53:45relations 53:48different exponents 53:50cooperative system your critical point suggesting that maybe 53:53what makes all these things happen 53:55isn't all of these 53:57firms all these traders i somehow interacting in a very complicated way 54:03and we said that fred time correlation function there is no memory 54:08for the volatility correlation function there is a memory and it's a very long 54:12memory of power-law decay 54:15uh... the random matrix theory i just said 54:17and i didn't talk about what this means soon but 54:20roughly where these will see in the coming 54:22slide or two 54:24thunder five more minutes 54:27is that ok 54:28you won't take it away 54:30hip 54:33this one man and i can argue with that 54:38he set out to be a surprise 54:40dubious prices a very very gifted young man 54:44and pain 54:47it came to me out of the blue literally 54:50on christmas vacation 54:52four years ago 54:53five years ago 54:54and you wrote me an email saying i liked it 54:58come over and uh... uh... work with your sunday and court arriving on december 55:02twenty third pieces 55:04and i said uh... 55:05to my family ah... 55:07someone wants to come over and work with me his arrive in december twenty third 55:11for two months 55:12and so that 55:13the quick answers well colonials human january third but i can do that islam 55:18minister so so i i i met this person had 55:22and he was remarkable not only brought a good rain 55:26but he bribed a juror 55:27you can imagine than in from the the either the most exciting her 55:32because we've already learned from our represented only much of a brain but you 55:36do need a they want to debut dot was was 55:40trade 55:41of one commodity 55:42the docs future taxes with german 55:46uh... average 55:47and people gamble just like i said them or their cooper dot 55:53every trade 55:54none of the price change but the exact time in milliseconds 55:59the true the card 56:00and the gaps between trade for a popular thing like that are in the order of a 56:04few milliseconds 56:05so what to do with all the state and i think there were thirteen million of 56:09them now 56:10and uh... 56:11this just a pretty picture in the style amanda bro to show that 56:14if we look at the fluctuations on a big time scale i forgot what now 56:19uh... 56:20uh... day they look hard at it when you look on the scale that our that looked 56:24similar and so forth and so on 56:27this by the way is from a readable 56:30article most articles are not readable 56:32but this isn't the physics world which is like scientific american 56:36all note of britain 56:38and uh... 56:39so what to do with these data that was ripple and leader of the review so what 56:44do you do first thing you do is plop them 56:46so this is a plot 56:47that they had to be ours is a little schematic but there's a plot of 56:52each transaction back taxes is not tying it's transactions 56:57and these transactions characterized first by a trading price of a statewide 57:02so someone who we have to agree on how much good today 57:06and the volumes of for example the place looks good you might have a huge 57:10violence elbow thousands of shares an otherwise my brain library 57:14very few six years 57:16and both of these things are frustrated 57:20the first thing you see with the eye this before any analysis who see that 57:25there are these switching points where they are prices going down and it 57:28changes its mind and starts to go up a little bit 57:30and they go down 57:32and down and up and down and up 57:34these are we going to call 57:36micro trends very short 57:39we order of 57:40hundreds of those seconds at most and 57:43and the switching lisa because switches so this is my good friend switches very 57:48they'll understand her 57:50and 57:51ed that 57:53anyone even high school student since the 57:56that when the trends which takes place the volume jumps 58:00in the jumps the same weather then switches from going down 58:03going up or here going up 58:06you're going down 58:07here another one here another one 58:10why is that 58:11stuntman are completely through i mean you know answers the questions like why 58:15are always 58:17full of imagination that the president was answered but but it it it seemed 58:22like this might reflect 58:26cooperative interaction of all the trees or why is that what makes this whole 58:30process work 58:31isn't traders 58:32all over germany and actually all over the world and healing and surpluses 58:37associate with germany are watching the computer screen 58:41guessing when the market's going to turn around and start going up 58:44and what do they do why do they decide because of a dome by it at this bottom 58:48that they delay it'll be right where was now 58:51so and then they won't have any profit 58:54and i think you know this but maybe you don't mind sons intruder 58:57for goldman 58:58facts uh... eat you your everyday your profit or lost is recorded publicly 59:06your boss is a friends say it yousendit so if you have a bad day it was no 59:12problem 59:13but if you have five bad days uh... on friday 59:16you get a little knock at the door if this 59:19and at the door as your friend in boston smile on his face 59:23sticking out his hand and right behind me as a policeman just in case you 59:26programs and that's not correct equipment 59:30and then thank you for your hard work 59:32and and then you're on the street 59:34nine o'clock friday morning 59:37for the rest of your life so there's a big shock 59:40no one wants to go through that so the deluge tension 59:44uh... of all these traders too 59:46guess where the bottom of this 59:48and the believers here of course 59:50if is going up the if you sold it to soon you will be much profit 59:55decide to make a woman much profit 59:57review salad just right you made all that profit 60:00and some of the end of the day 60:03your boss will come in with a smile but not shake your hand also but the reno 60:07policemen 60:08and think it's a very good job 60:10so we hypothesize that the mechanism of these 60:14volume is that near the switching points 60:17everybody's got 60:18his or her hand on the trigger 60:20waiting to buy 60:22and then as that those who have been beneath and some by a little sooner 60:27and some by a little later 60:28but the peak is usually right at the minimum 60:31and similar for silence of this what we have got all quality now let's make some 60:35analysis 60:36how to analyze what we know another switch in nature 60:39which is a phase transition 60:41and the most dramatic switchable 60:43is the switches 60:44that occur and helium 60:46which is just the gas at when the system gets near its 60:51uh... transition to superfluid rudy 60:53and at that time 60:55measures of fluctuations 60:58rise incredibly 61:00and then come down afterwards and rising probing come down afterwards 61:04these are three different scales 61:06degrees 61:07millie degrees and michael agrees and the same function fits all of them that 61:11means it has to be a power-law 61:15let's look at this vibe we already saw the right wing up right so if we do a 61:19little bit of averaging not cheating but just looking at many fb assistance as 61:23which is and then we get a nice move curve 61:27that to my mind but just like this curve in eighteen dismay at the moment 61:31contributions to project 61:33was the certainty that looks like a 61:35uh... face transition produce just like you 61:40refute him just stopped with this this land of shape that's why it's called a 61:45lot of the transition 61:46if it's just stopped here that would be one thing 61:49the researchers in physics know better than just to stop of the picture 61:53they analyze these data and found this in your area functional form for that 61:57singularity 61:59and so so we can do the same thing we can take those volume data and make the 62:03same kind of logo and plywood taiwan explain 62:07uh... but 62:08it's a plotted the distance you are from the switching one point 62:13which is called epsilon minus one 62:15as a far from shore of uh... of this somebody in the star 62:20q_c_ 62:21that uh... data are approximately new york overrode little more than a decade 62:25one point two two point seven 62:28so one-and-a-half decades 62:30and a defense slope on between sides ones filled on this side one slope on 62:34that side 62:35and similarly for the trade time so i will go through it need to know we'll do 62:39that 62:40and so coming back to this idea 62:43that there's this cooperative interaction 62:45suppose we'd look now not just at the docs 62:49which had fourteen million 62:51uh... data points 62:53at something that's uh... expense of others for this on the extended over 62:57about a year 62:58but instead look at something instead to forty years 63:01forty-five years forty seven years 63:04which is the uh... 63:06s_ and p_ five hundred 63:07same idea that's also like the dark some kind of average 63:11hw we have data 63:13that go over forty seven years you can get them off the web actually 63:17the same plots who see this was divided into them apart one five point oh seven 63:23and here is the same 63:26but now for 63:28forty seven years worth of data and the same straight lines approximately the 63:32same slow point one five point one want 63:35not exactly of course that we believe that it will work 63:37and then this is something else the volatility which we didn't talk about 63:40just now but 63:42you see again the spokesman for the summer 63:44forty two forty six 63:46it suggests that whatever this mechanism is it operates at all times skills 63:51so just as here 63:54fluctuations and helium 63:56work at all distances from the critical point 63:58saucer here 64:00good so this is the final 64:02point to make ste what is going on 64:06this plot 64:07this graph 64:08is something that i'm twenty of the new york ultimate understand better than i 64:12did 64:12and egghead 64:14and it has direct applicable it easier in my opinion 64:17because in economics 64:19there's something called a herd of packed and all the herd effect means 64:23is that like cheaper panel or anything 64:25traders uh... and follow each other a little bit for good reason because 64:31supposed you're making profit and i can see your everyday your profit and loss 64:35is going up in your boss is smiling and there's no sign of policemen 64:40and i don't want to be have a policeman in my office so what are the way i 64:43copyright c l_ willing to trade today 64:46okay perfectly legal 64:48copy band so this is for a defect and in there are many many examples of and ron 64:54is a famous one were everybody did the same thing and everyone knew it wasn't 64:58worth the paper was printed on 65:00but it was simply going up you can't afford to pass up a bargain even that's 65:04based on nothing and of course sooner or later 65:07it fell old zero very rapidly 65:10so it 65:11that's perfect 65:12and quite what makes the head of the fact that up 65:15well irony explained just follow someone else but if you want to make a little 65:19model of its you do what we do 65:21and in uh... 65:22and phase transitions 65:24you say that to traders called aunt mary and nancy 65:28interact with each other as i just have to watch you cause you problems without 65:33they also interact indirectly 65:35because of mary's profit goes up 65:38and neighbor at the next desk sees marian copies of the neighbor there 65:42issues that may bring copies and finally nancy 65:46sees that neighboring copies so it's a more in direct interaction 65:49there to interaction pass 65:51and then here there's five 65:53interaction pasand many many configurations 65:57but the remarkable thing is the correlations along any path must pick a 66:01exponentially 66:03why is that because like when you crack the whip in this case 66:06nor have the answer nevermind but if you've you you do anything cooperatively 66:12in a chain there is a decrease each time 66:15industry 66:17that's an exponential decay so how would you ever get a powerful objectivity each 66:21along each of these past 66:23is an exponential decay and the answer is 66:26that uh... number of has 66:28is growing 66:29but also exponentially 66:31if he didn't even sit here want to six doesn't have to see an exponential but 66:36who could do this by brute force as far as you walk 66:39the number of different houses growing exponentially so with mary makes profit 66:45uh... nancy over here 66:47uh... uh... can learn about it and many many many ways and uh... number of pads 66:53that nancy learns with 66:54with uh... five-star so to speak 66:57more than three years more than one 66:59and that number is growing exponentially 67:01so then you would say wait 67:03than the should cancel out there two warring exponential as the d_k_ 67:08is going down 67:11the number of houses going up 67:13and they're both exponential so they should cancel 67:16but miracle happens this going up is not a pure power-law 67:20it's got a 67:21a priest actor which is weaker than an exponential 67:25in that pre factor is a powerful sewed up your lead geometric fact 67:30mechanism whereby we get these power lines 67:33in a in a simple model which we believe describes older systems 67:38but i know about it at least 67:40is a model in which 67:42that touring exponential as 67:44just cancel each other 67:46and with leftovers of power 67:48and apollo has to do with a multiplicity of 67:51of uh... 67:52correlation passed between area dancing 67:55so that's the herd effect is a second i think the easier to explain colby 67:59picnic news effect 68:01everyone knows from the newspaper 68:04if the market said goes down 68:06that the critics always have a reason 68:08they set off kennedy was shot something's up 68:12at markets make big changes when there's news 68:15and this is uh... hundred-percent route they don't make the changes that's not 68:19the only reason the change 68:20read those and still change 68:23and uh... 68:24uh... so there's no was affected just like an exterminator field effects all 68:28the trainers mary feels it 68:30nancy feels that everyone feels that who opens their eyes because of your traded 68:34and dungeon 68:35and didn't know anything going on like aida uh... then you wouldn't know what's 68:39going on here and have this uh... moves affect which were never heard of him 68:43peter 68:44answer for rameters sir 68:46so um... it's a good place to stop it just for the luke user 68:50understand this which ends is a brand new idea 68:54the students are gabled arrests 68:56a graduate student in israel crush on the jury paul 68:59and show my house on which is a relatively recent which has the do with 69:03couple networks which have been remarkable property 69:06they can explain things like the blackout in italy and september vote 69:10three 69:12they can 69:13and howard sudden it was a cascade of failures 69:16and how you can get a first-order abrupt breakdown instead of usual breakdown 69:22which is second-order and i won't talk about that now 69:25some of the time 69:26so i want to close by 69:28thanking all of you for coming and deeply deeply touched i didn't expect 69:31that 69:33babu would come in 69:35he wouldn't come in so i thought that this is like my he would come in i was 69:38very pleased that she did it up 69:40but uh... very personal on the new branding publisher 69:44is very special 69:46good so thank you for your attention and thank you for this wonderful wonderful 69:49that piece of paper which 69:51for me symbolizes a very deep 69:53admiration for him to look at and my commitment 69:57i had to look up 69:58uh... becomes the number one place 70:01and italy if not in all of europe among all the world 70:04jet a solid 70:05exposure to graduate level 70:07uh... education thank you Published on Mar 11, 2013