Date: 2024-12-21 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00017580
Climate Crisis ... Wildfires
California Wildfire Mitigation
Another Rising Cost of Climate Change: PG&E's Blackouts, Now Needed to Prevent Wildfires
Peter Burgess
The power outages—to avoid sparking fires in the extremely dry, windy conditions—are costing billions as businesses and schools shut down.
Firefighters battle the Kincade Fire in Healdsburg, California, on Oct. 27, 2019. Powerful winds were spreading fires in the dry landscape and more extreme fire conditions were expected. Credit: Philip Pacheco/AFP/Getty Images
With wildfires forcing evacuations in the Los Angeles hills and Sonoma County, and parts of California under an 'extreme red flag warning' from the winds, the state's largest electric utility triggered another preemptive blackout on Tuesday that left half a million customers in the dark.
Shutting down the power has become PG&E's primary defense to keep its troubled power lines from sparking wildfires in the dry landscape, as happened in 2017 and 2018 to deadly effect.
It also vividly illustrates how the costs of failing to address climate change reach far wider than just property lost to the flames. The blackouts, while likely saving homes and lives, mean many businesses and industries can't operate, schools can't open, and gas stations remain shuttered. For small businesses, several days without power or customers could be devastating. Just the blackouts alone could cost the state billions.
'This is an example of the cost of not fixing climate change,' said Scott Denning, a climate scientist and professor of atmospheric sciences at Colorado State University. 'People talk about the trillions of dollars it will cost to do something like the Green New Deal. But how many trillions does it cost when millions of people in the world's fifth largest economy are stuck without power?'
One researcher estimated the costs from PG&E's first blackout earlier this month at about $2.5 billion. Tuesday's blackout was the utility's third major outage this month, and with extreme winds projected to last several days, it could stretch for days.
Some economists and state policy makers are worried that chronic blackouts could drive business away from the state—and, ultimately, mean higher costs.
'PG&E is bankrupt because of the 2017 and 2018 fires. They don't know what exactly the liabilities are, but they're between 20 and 30 billion, and that's just one utility and two seasons,' said Leah Stokes, a political science professor at the University of California Santa Barbara who specializes in public policy related to climate change. 'If you think about how that would be multiplied across the economy, then we're in the trillions of dollars, potentially, annually, for climate impacts. That's a huge amount of money.'
How Climate Change Fuels the Flames
California has long been prone to fires in the fall, when seasonal winds stoke blazes in brush and forests parched from the summer. But climate change has made the state warmer and drier, providing more fuel for the fires while amplifying the dangers of a population spreading into forested areas and an aging, poorly maintained power infrastructure.
'This weekend was a confluence of both bad luck and long-term climate trends, plus those other issues,' said Daniel Swain a climate scientist at UCLA.
Powerful winds scatter embers from the Kincade Fire. Credit: Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty Images
Illustration: Diablo and Santa Ana Winds at a Glance
Swain remarked on the striking similarities between conditions surrounding the current fires and those in recent years, including the most destructive and deadly fires in the state's history.
'This year, last year and the year before—heading into November, the rains were very late and allowed these windy conditions to coincide with the summer-like dryness of vegetation,' Swain said. 'That's where the climate signal is coming: The change in the precipitation and the background warming effect.'
The 10 most destructive fires in California history have all occurred since 1990—seven of them in the last four years—and researchers project that wildfires will only get bigger and more destructive and frequent in a hotter, drier California. The state's 2018 climate assessment says the area burned by wildfires could increase by nearly 80 percent by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions continue at a high rate.
Bankruptcy and Years of Maintenance Failures
In the wake of a series of especially dangerous fire seasons, researchers and policy makers have frantically debated how to manage the risks. With millions of people sitting in darkened houses and shuttered businesses amid the latest blackouts, much of that debate centers on the gargantuan dilemma of providing the most populous U.S. state with electricity while also keeping people out of harm's way.
State investigators blame PG&E for 18 of the 170-plus wildfires that menaced Northern California in 2017, and for last year's Camp Fire, which destroyed the town of Paradise and killed 85 people, making it the state's worst fire on record.
The company, facing mounting liability claims, filed for bankruptcy in January. Months earlier, it announced it might impose preemptive blackouts during high-wind events to minimize the risk of power lines sparking fires. These preemptive efforts were intended to be occasional, but given the growing fire risks, they could become commonplace.
A helicopter dumps water on a fire that broke out near homes in the Los Angeles area in October 2019. Credit: Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty Images
While the company has been widely criticized for failing to maintain its system over the decades, it has made an effort to ramp up its preventative measures, including cutting back trees near transmission lines, in recent years.
But work required to 'fireproof the grid' is so extensive and costly, it could take years to complete. So the company has said it will reduce the short-term risks by cutting power to millions of people.
Though powerlines are responsible for a relatively small number of California fires, a higher proportion of those fires become destructive.
'There's an especially high value in preventing those particular fires,' Swain said. 'There are potential benefits from turning off the electricity. The problem is that, A) that's not the only source of fires, and, B) there is a huge and growing list of negative consequences of turning the power off and using that as a blunt tool.'
'All of a sudden, it's become a major crisis,' Swain said.
Solutions to the PG&E Problem?
The situation has pushed the issue to the forefront of the state's political and public policy debates. This summer, Gov. Gavin Newsom authorized a $21 billion fund to help utilities pay for claims linked to wildfires caused by their equipment.
'It's a huge policy debate,' Stokes said. 'This is front-of-mind for a lot of policy makers and the governor.'
One proposal is for public entities, like San Francisco, to buy PG&E, but like so many of the possible fixes, that would only go part of the way toward solving the problem.
'It's not like there's a simple solution here. Yes, PG&E should be doing more to maintain its systems and doing more proactive work, but even if it's owned by the state, that's not a magical solution,' Stokes said.
PG&E workers replace a power pole on a hillside in Walnut Creek, California, on Oct. 23, 2019, that had been the source of several small fires. Credit: Jane Tyska/MediaNews Group/The Mercury News via Getty
Among the possible solutions is a transition of the state's power system from the current one, in which big utilities deliver and distribute the power, to a distributed system in which power is generated, controlled and distributed locally and across smaller grids, or microgrids. This would reduce the risk of sparking fires because these localized systems don't require long-distance transmission lines.
The state passed a law last year to expand the development of microgrids, and these systems are gaining traction. But the vast majority of power will continue to come from the big utilities.
'If you're a homeowner, you need to be able to deal with the fact that every fall your lights are going to go out,' Denning said. 'If you're PG&E, you have to consider cutting huge swathes of forest on either side of power lines so sparks don't get into trees or spend a huge amount of money burying power lines.'
'In the long run, they have to get off fossil fuels because fossil fuels are causing the climate change that's contributing to the fires,' Denning added. 'On the other hand, there's the immediate problem which is: What do you do this week when the state is on fire?'
----------------------------------------------------------------
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Georgina Gustin. Georgina Gustin is a Washington-based reporter who has covered food policy, farming and the environment for more than a decade. She started her journalism career at The Day in New London, Conn., then moved to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, where she launched the 'food beat,' covering agriculture, biotech giant Monsanto and the growing 'good food' movement. At CQ Roll Call, she covered food, farm and drug policy and the intersections between federal regulatory agencies and Congress. Her work has also appeared in The New York Times, Washington Post and National Geographic's The Plate, among others. Your donation powers our nonprofit newsroom. ICN Videos MOST POPULAR A Global tank farm in South Portland, Maine. Derek Davis/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images 'This Is Not Normal.’ New Air Monitoring Reveals Hazards in This Maine City. BY SABRINA SHANKMAN After a four-year investigation, Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey filed suit against Exxon on Oct. 24, accusing the oil giant of misleading investors with its disclosures and the public through its advertising. Credit: Drew Angerer/Getty Images Massachusetts Sues Exxon Over Climate Change, Accusing the Oil Giant of Fraud BY DAVID HASEMYER Plaintiffs in the children's climate lawsuit filed Oct. 25, 2019, in Canada. Credit: Robin Loznak 15 Canadian Kids Sue Their Government for Failing to Address Climate Change BY PHIL MCKENNA Exxon oil spill. Credit: Photo illustration based on EPA photo 6 Years After Exxon's Oil Pipeline Burst in an Arkansas Town, a Final Accounting BY DAVID HASEMYER Former Exxon scientist Ed Garvey (left) testified before a congressional committee on Oct. 23, 2019, about early research into the risks posed by carbon dioxide emissions that come from burning fossil fuels. Credit: Courtesy of Richard Werthamer Former Exxon Scientists Tell Congress of Oil Giant's Climate Research Before Exxon Turned to Denial BY MARIANNE LAVELLE Exxon and Oil Sands Go on Trial in New York Climate Fraud Case BY NICHOLAS KUSNETZ Exxon signs. Credit: Karen Bleier/AFP/Getty Images Exxon’s Climate Fraud Trial Opens to a Packed New York Courtroom BY NICHOLAS KUSNETZ Bob Murray, the founder of Murray Energy, which filed for bankruptcy on Oct. 29, 2019. Credit: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Coal Giant Murray Energy Files for Bankruptcy Despite Trump’s Support BY DAN GEARINO Exxon investor meeting. Credit: Brian Harkin/Getty Images Key Question as Exxon Climate Trial Begins: What Did Investors Believe? BY NICHOLAS KUSNETZ Dakota Access pipeline protest near Standing Rock Reservation. Credit: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images South Dakota Backs Off Harsh New Protest Law and ‘Riot-Boosting’ Penalties BY PHIL MCKENNA FOLLOW OUR SPONSORS Clif Bar View all sponsors RELATED California issued health warnings in early August as smoke from record wildfires darkened the skies and drifted into other states. Credit: Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images How Wildfires Can Affect Climate Change (and Vice Versa) BY BOB BERWYN A wildfire burns in the hills near an industrial facility outside Corona, California, in August 2018. Credit: Mario Tama/Getty Images California Climate Change Report Adds to Evidence as State Pushes Back on Trump BY PHIL MCKENNA Burned cars line a road near Paradise, California, after the state's deadliest wildfire swept through the town in November. Credit: Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty Images California’s Wildfire and Climate Change Warnings Are Still Too Conservative, Scientist Says BY PHIL MCKENNA California's deadliest wildfire on record swept through the down of Paradise in November. Credit: Josh Edelson/AFP/Getty Images Drier Autumns Are Fueling Deadly California Wildfires BY SABRINA SHANKMAN Subscribe to Clean Economy Weekly WANT MORE STORIES LIKE THIS ONE? Contribute To Our Staff DONATE NOW MORE EXTREME WEATHER People carried their possessions through what remained of The Mudd area of Great Abaco island on Sept. 5, 2019, five days after Hurricane Dorian struck with Category 5 winds and a powerful storm surge. Credit: Jose Jimenez/Getty Images A Shantytown’s Warning About Climate Change and Poverty from Hurricane-Ravaged Bahamas BY PHIL MCKENNA Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) answers questions at CNN's climate crisis town hall on Sept. 4, 2019. Credit: CNN video Climate Crisis Town Hall Tested Candidates' Boldness and Credibility BY MARIANNE LAVELLE Satellite infrared imagery shows Hurricane Dorian's eyewall over Grand Bahama Island on Sept. 2, 2019. Credit: NOAA GOES Why Are Hurricanes Like Dorian Stalling, and Is Global Warming Involved? BY BOB BERWYN MORE ON EXTREME WEATHER