Date: 2024-12-21 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00018079
Military History
Aircraft Carriers
If US lost in the battle of Midway, and lost all her three aircraft carriers, how would the Pacific war and the entire World War II be impacted?
Peter Burgess
Tim Kerk. Tim Kerk., former Nurse. (1993-2017)
It would have extended the war for some time. Possibly years. But the US was able to build 150 aircraft carriers before the war ended. It then had 102 carriers operational in 1945. And the best aircraft, pilots and crews need. That includes 24 Essex class fleet carriers. Most were very small escort carriers that were still vital in winning the war. The Hellcat and Corsair were two of the best fighters of the war. And the allies were rapidly developing tactics to beat Japanese fighters in combat. Even Wildcat fighters could still be effective and still played a big role. And the Avenger and Dauntless aircraft that were very effective attack aircraft. Also the Navy was finally able to build effective torpedoes. Large amounts of Japanese shipping was sunk by allied submarines.
US submarines launched the most successful submarine campaign in history and sunk about half of the Japanese cargo ship tonnage. As well as a big role in sinking combat ships. Also gathering information on Japanese movements. Had the war continued the subs would have done much more damage. The Japanese were losing their anti-submarine ships. And US subs were gaining experience and improved weapons. The US campaign was far more successful than the German U-Boats. 50 US subs were list in the Pacific. Germany lost over 700 U-Boats. The damage to Japan was significant. Japan lost most of its oil supplies and other vital materials for war. And food shortages as well. Many Japanese forces that were becoming isolated by submarines and the island hopping faced starvation and disease.
If the 3 US carriers were sunk the greatest loss would have been of the crews and pilots. These experienced crews were not so easy to replace. But new crews would have been trained. The US aircraft carriers were more survivable than Japanese carriers. And when US carriers were lost most of the crews were rescued. Partly because of the damage control training of crews. Japanese personnel losses were often much higher.
The Japanese did not have the capability to train aircraft and ship crews as allies did. After Midway, the Japanese could not easily replace pilots, crews or carriers. Many hulls of future carriers were left uncompleted due to a lack of resources. So the Japanese built aircraft carriers on other ships with large hulls. Including one battleship hull that became the wars' biggest carrier. And it was sunk by a US submarine about 10 days after its commissioning. Another Japanese carrier was built on a German passenger ship. But these adaptations were not as effective as the 24 US Essex class, purpose-built fleet carriers. And none of those carriers were sunk during WW2. Later in the war, the Japanese lacked pilots to man the carriers. Training new pilots was difficult for both the Germans and Japanese when their oil industries were destroyed or isolated. While the allies had plenty of good quality fuel to train their pilots.
When the war started the Japanese and Germans had very effective and experienced aircrew. But both countries failed to train enough aircrew for a long war of attrition. Japan and Germany had both relied on winning the war quickly. But the allies were committed to the long term victory. With a massive commitment. Of people and industry. Germany and Japan also had the vulnerability of oil supplies. They had to import oil. The US had huge oil reserves.
If Japan had captured Midway it would have been of little use. Midway was within striking range of Hawaii and the US could have used bombers to destroy Japanese forces there. Midway was a small island and bombing of Midway would make it ineffective as a base. It was an island that could have been bypassed if needed. Hawaii was much larger and had a number of airfields and US forces could have been widely dispersed. And Pearl Harbor was a massive base. With preparation, Hawaii was very defensible. Most of the battleships sunk in Pearl Harbor were also recovered and went back to support the advance on Japan.
When the war in Europe ended the Soviets also turned towards Japan. The USSR now had a massive, experienced and well-armed military. And in August 1945 the Soviets declared war on Japan. The Japanese army could not resist Soviet tank armies. Or the massive Soviet airforce. The Japanese army did not have a huge tank force or effective antitank weapons. And much of Japan's army was spread across Asia and the Pacific. Cut off from Japan.
The US also had the help of a number of well-armored British carriers. The British carriers were found to be able to recover well from Japanese kamikaze attacks due to their steel decks. The US lost 7 carriers during the war. The Japanese lost more. Japan had a few carriers left in 1945 but they were no longer effective. Many being damaged. And they would face a serious submarine threat if they went to sea.
The development of the atomic bombs would also have ensured allied victory. Along with the advanced B-29 bombers that could also devastate Japanese cities. Another problem for Japan was growing food shortages. The worst affected were isolated military units that could not be effectively resupplied. But Japan's civilian population was also facing a threat of famine. If the war continued millions of Japanese civilians could have died from famine and disease.
In the overall picture Japan was facing serious defeat. Even with 3 less carriers the US would have won the Pacific campaign. The loss of 3 carriers in 1942 would have been a serious blow. But the defeat of Japan was inevitable.
The US had enough resources to protect Hawaii from the Japanese. And Australia was quickly able to reinforce its defenses in 1942. It is unlikely the Japanese could have effectively invaded Australia. Hawaii was a far better base than Midway which could only support a low number of aircraft. And was within bombing range of Hawaii. Had the Japanese captured Midway it would have been over limited value. Large numbers of US heavy bombers could have been based in Hawaii on a number of large airbases that could be effectively defended. For the Japanese Midway was isolated. Wake Island faced a similar threat. It was isolated from distant US forces and could not be effectively defended. Later Wake Island was also bypassed and remained in Japanese hands until the war ended. But as a base it had little value once it was attacked and isolated. The Hawaiian islands remained a powerful US base that greatly supported the Pacific campaign. With its big harbor and airbases that could be well defended.
US subs sunk more than half of Japan's merchant fleet. And many Japanese combat ships. The US subs campaign grew slowly due to a lack of effective torpedoes early in the war. US Navy bureaucracy blocked the improvement of the torpedoes for some time. The Japanese failed to use its submarines to effectively attack allied logistics and merchant fleets. They concentrated on US warships without strategic success.
The US was also developing the nuclear bombs that would also have helped to finally defeat Japan. The US had also developed fleets of carriers and fleets for the support of amphibious operations by 1944. A huge number of ships were built within 4 years and crews and troops were also trained. In 1944 the US Navy was able to launch devastating operations into Japanese territory towards the Philippines. Much of the Japanese navy's combat capability was lost. The lack of three aircraft carriers would not have made a major difference. By 1945 Germany was close to collapse. US resources could be diverted to the Pacific. Including USAF and Navy units that were no longer needed in Europe and the Mediterranean.
In 1945 Japan was facing overwhelming allied forces, isolation and famine. The atomic bombs was the shock needed for Japan to surrender. But many fanatical Japanese were still against it. The US did have more bombs under construction. But they were not needed.