The Gray Rhino Tracker July 2020: The Coming Gray Rhinos, Courtesy of COVID-19
Michele Wucker info@thegrayrhino.com via gmail.mcsv.net
11:06 AM (1 hour ago)
to me
The Coming Gray Rhinos, Courtesy of COVID-19
It's been longer than usual since my last email because, as many of you know, I've had my head deep in writing my next book. I'll share more on that in my next newsletter which I promise will not take as long to send as this one has; there's also a bit about it in my interview with Anne Janzer linked below. It's also been a bit of a madhouse fielding media and speaking requests because the gray rhino has struck a chord amidst a pandemic that would not be as bad as it is if so many people had not ignored the many warnings that the world was unprepared.
Over the course of the spring, BlackRock Vice Chairman Philipp Hildebrand cited the gray rhino in a speech, which nine US senators noted in a letter to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about the need to address mis-pricing of climate risk in financial markets. Citigroup Vice Chairman Jay Collins has mentioned the gray rhino in speeches about the threat that COVID-19 presents to the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. The French intellectual Bernard-Henri Lévy tweeted that the coronavirus is not a black swan but rather a gray rhino, and the Scottish-born historian Niall Ferguson has repeatedly referred to gray rhinos including in this video podcast with the Peruvian commentator Alvaro Vargas Llosa.
Since January 1, the gray rhino has been mentioned in nearly 300 articles in at least 17 languages and 40 countries including Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, Cambodia, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand; across the Middle East, South Africa, Ghana, Uganda; Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, the Czech Republic; Venezuela, Canada, Ecuador, Brazil, and Mexico. I've included a few links below to some of the most interesting recent articles.
For video, click here. For radio and podcasts, click here. I'm especially proud to have appeared on the inaugural episode of Breaking the Fever, the new webinar and podcast series from Preventable Surprises (the think-and-do tank I recently joined as senior advisor) and Ethical Systems with a line-up of some tremendous thinkers on how we 'build back better' post-COVID. Sign up to be notified of future webinars by joining this LinkedIn group.
In coming weeks, I'll be continuing to write and speak about the next gray rhinos --or, in many cases, the gray rhinos that were there already but which the pandemic has made more urgent. Top of mind are debt and financial fragilities, climate crisis, and inequality. I would love to hear about the gray rhinos on the top of your mind; perhaps we can find a way to wrangle them together.
If you'll excuse a quick sales pitch: Noting the renewed interest in THE GRAY RHINO, my publisher has arranged a special promotion of the Kindle/e-book edition which is on sale for just $2.99 across all digital book platforms through July 31. If you have friends or colleagues who would benefit, please let them know -- or even better, gift it to them!
Also check out my new corporate book club program. Teams at companies that purchase books in bulk can arrange one or more virtual conversations about applying the gray rhino to your company's challenges. Learn more HERE.
For current commentary, follow me on LinkedIn, Twitter @wucker, or my public Facebook page. For ongoing commentary about COVID-19 please subscribe to my LinkedIn newsletter series, 'Around My Mind' by clicking on the blue button on the top right-hand side of any article in the series. Most also go up on my Gray Rhino Blog, either 'The Horn' sub-blog for current affairs or 'My Gray Rhino' for decision making and behavioral insights, where you also can find some excellent guest posts.
'Cognitive science and behavioral economics scholars have conducted research on people who are the most skilled forecasters among us. Apparently, they perform no better than chance on economic predictions more than three to five years out.'
Why Managing Uncertainty Is a Key Leadership Skill
Michele Wucker. strategy+business, June 10, 2020
'As it brutally disrupts life and business as we know it, COVID-19 has brought into sharp relief a crucial business skill: the ability to navigate uncertainty. That means knowing what you can control and what you cannot, aligning your company and employees with a shared purpose, holding to a clear vision of where you want the company to be, and trusting your team to help get there.'
The 3 Weeks That Changed Everything
James Fallows, The Atlantic, June 29, 2020
'The system the government set up was designed to warn not about improbable “black swan” events but rather about what are sometimes called “gray rhinos.” ... Did the warning system work this time, providing advance notice of the coronavirus outbreak? According to everyone I spoke with, it certainly did.'
The 'Well-Balanced Meal' MBA Reading List
Laura Huang's blog, June 24, 2020
'Almost every list related to MBAs or business or leadership that I found was dominated by male authors. And predominantly white male authors...So without further ado, here’s my 'let’s fill our students’ minds up with a wide range of perspectives' MBA reading list.'
From Black Swans to Gray Rhinos: Confronting Business Threats in an Age of Uncertainty
Erin Hale, Wall Street Journal Custom Solutions, June 22, 2020
'Among the many gray rhinos laid bare by Covid-19, the absence of a coherent digital strategy is at the head of the pack, with many companies struggling to establish remote work arrangements and cybersecurity safeguards. Covid-19 was a wake-up call for many that in 2020 a digital strategy is essential to any business model.'
A Conversation with Michele Wucker
Anne Janzer's blog, June 12, 2020
Podcast and transcript
'Q: For people who aren’t familiar with it, we’ll talk about your book The Gray Rhino. The reason that it’s coming up today is because this pandemic is a wonderful example of a Gray Rhino: a risk that it’s obvious we’ve seen stampeding towards us—or some people have been seeing and shouting about—and yet we’ve done nothing until we’re on the horn of the rhino.'
The Big Questions We Face in Coming Months
Amy Guth, Crain's Daily Gist (podcast), May 25, 2020
In this episode of the podcast, author Michele Wucker talks with host Amy Guth about how grey rhinos could shape economic recovery, the practical decisions we're going to need to make over the coming weeks and months and what helps us to bounce back quickly.'
Only Sustainable Investment & Global Cooperation Can Counter COVID’s Blow to SDGs
Jay Collins, InterPress Service, April 30, 2020
'As Mark Carney has so aptly pointed out, climate change also imbeds within it “the tragedy of commons,” in which the cost of inaction today is felt by future generations, well beyond humanity’s traditional economic and political time horizons. Let us not permit that our grandchildren look back on climate change as humanity’s worst 'Gray Rhino moment,' but use this COVID-19 crisis to re-galvanize our resolve against it.'
Why We Ignore Big Risks
Emily McCormick, Bank Director Magazine, April 15, 2020
'A pandemic was far from the top risk on corporate radars a few months ago, even though experts in a variety of fields warned about the possibility of one for years. Best-selling author Michele Wucker refers to risks like this as 'gray rhinos.'.'
Any Man’s Death Diminishes me
Navtej Sarna (former ambassador to the United States),The Week (India), April 9, 2020
'It is clear that the world was unprepared for the Covid-19 crisis and we cannot be absolved of collective responsibility by calling it a Black Swan event—rare, near impossible and unforeseeable. As metaphors go, the Grey Rhino is more appropriate—the big obvious thing that was coming at us, and which we chose to ignore.'
Covid-19 and the Perils of Prediction
Tom Standage, The Economist The World Ahead (podcast), March 31, 2020
“As the Covid-19 situation worsens, host Tom Standage explores what the pandemic reveals about the perils of prediction and what other future threats we might be overlooking.”
Coronavirus Holds Key Lessons on How to Fight Climate Change
Beth Gardiner, Yale Environment e360, March 23, 2020.
'When the Covid-19 pandemic is past, societies may adopt some important measures that would lower emissions, from more teleconferencing to shortening global supply chains. But the most lasting lesson may be what the coronavirus teaches us about the urgency of taking swift action.'
Un choque de rinocerontes
Arturo Sarakhan (former ambassador to the United States), El Espectador (Mexico), March 18, 2020
'How do you know when this risk is smart? My answer, when you are clear on why you are doing it. Some risks are worth taking. Risk begets reward, enables progress and also put us outside of our comfort zone.'
No, the Coronavirus Pandemic Wasn’t an ‘Unforeseen Problem’
Michele Wucker, The Washington Post, March 17, 2020
'The facile willingness to see crises as black swans has provided policymakers cover for failing to act in the face of clear and present dangers from climate change to health care to economic insecurity. This accountability vacuum has pervaded U.S. policy on financial risk and on the pandemic.'
UPCOMING TALKS
Les Napoleons
The Gray Rhino: Marjorie Paillon in conversation with Michele Wucker
Paris, France (virtual)
July 16, 2020
RECENT TALKS
BOMA France
The Gray Rhino: Michel Levy Provençal and Cindy Chin in conversation with Author Michele Wucker
June 24, 2020
UN Global Compact Leaders Summit
UNDESA Panel: Can We Avoid a Global Debt Crisis?
Panel with Navid Hanif, Director of Financing for Sustainable Development Office United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA); Shari Spiegel, Chief of Policy Analysis & Development Branch, UN DESA), and Sebastian Grund, Harvard Law School
June 15, 2020
CEO Roundtable and Context of Things
Transcending the Crisis: Whitaker Raymond in Conversation with Michele Wucker
May 8, 2020
Nottingham University Business School (China/UK)
Covid-19 and the Global Economy: Mchele Geraci and Michele Wucker in Conversation
May 26, 2020
Wildtype Media/Asian Scientist Magazine (Singapore)
Is Covid-19 a Gray Rhino Event? Juliana Chan in conversation with Michele Wucker
May 22, 2020
Micro Strategies
Leadership Through Crisis: A Conversation with Michele Wucker
May 8, 2020
Book Michele to speak via SpeakersConnect
Arrange a Corporate Book Club
Book an Interactive Virtual Presentation via Geniecast
JULY ONLY! The Kindle edition of THE GRAY RHINO is on sale for $2.99. Grab this deal while you can!
Or order your print copy of THE GRAY RHINO from your favorite bookseller. For bulk sales and customization (belly bands, etc) please contact Porchlight Books.
To order a personalized bookplate insert, email info@thegrayrhino.com with the name of the person to whom you'd like the book signed and we'll email you a personal inscription that you can print on an A4 label or cut out and paste. For three or more copies, include your snail mail address and we'll send hard copies of the bookplates plus bookmarks to go along with the autograph.
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image of Michele Wucker, THE GRAY RHINO BOOK COVER, and BOMA France logo with link to video
Reading and Listening
Don't Let Cognitive Biases Topple Your Strategic Plan
Gleb Tsipursky. The Gray Rhino Blog/My Gray Rhino July 13, 2020
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