Date: 2025-01-15 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00021676
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
EMPLOYMENT
Axios Reporting: That was fast: Labor markets rebound
TPB Commentary: Be cautious ... there are complex factors at work
EMPLOYMENT
Axios Reporting: That was fast: Labor markets rebound
TPB Commentary: Be cautious ... there are complex factors at work
Data: Haver Analytics and Moody's Investors Service; Chart: Axios Visual
Original article:
Burgess COMMENTARY
In some ways this graphic suggests that the economy is getting back to normal ... or back to where it was before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. I am not sure that this is a valid conclusion because there are other factors as work as well.
There has probably been more socio-economic change in the past two years than in the past two decades ... or longer. Most important, a lot of people have been asking themselves important questions about their quality of life and the value of their work. Many so-called 'essential workers' are deeply disallusioned
Peter Burgess
Oh, snap! Labor markets in advanced economies bounced back super-fast relative to pre-pandemic levels, but the U.S. is slightly behind, Emily writes.
Why it matters: Consider it took years for jobs to come back after the 2008 financial crisis. This is like no other economic recovery in history, said Claire Li, an assistant vice president at Moody's who helped put together this data.
Context: Though we're lagging on this bounce-back measure — the U.S. unemployment rate is actually lower than in several of these countries, including Canada and Australia, a separate Moody's analysis shows.
Lingering COVID worries are keeping workers home in the U.S. That's because they have caregiving responsibilities or they're older and are worried about getting sick — and long COVID, too.
The United Kingdom and Euro area are ahead partly because of the way they headed off job losses at the start of COVID, using fiscal relief to keep workers attached to the job market — instead of paying unemployment benefits to workers.
Canada's stellar recovery might have something to do with the fact that our neighbors to the north haven't seen as many COVID deaths or cases, Li said. (Canadian readers email me with more info please.)
The bottom line: The labor market recovery here has Larry David vibes: It's pretty...pretty...pretty good but specific COVID issues hold the U.S. back.