Date: 2024-12-21 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00021862
US MILITARY INTELLIGENCE
IN UKRAINE MAYBE BETTER THAN NORMAL
War in Ukraine offers redemption to maligned US intel community
IN UKRAINE MAYBE BETTER THAN NORMAL
War in Ukraine offers redemption to maligned US intel community
A Ukrainian solider is seen in position in Kyiv March 9, 2022 Aris Messinis AFP/File
Original article: https://www.rfi.fr/en/war-in-ukraine-offers-redemption-to-maligned-us-intel-community
Burgess COMMENTARY
Peter Burgess
Map of Ukraine locating areas where major explosions, strikes and fighting have been reported and under Russian control. Updated as of March 8, 2022, at 2000 GMT Kenan AUGEARD AFP
Wanting above all else to prevent armed conflict, the Biden administration quickly made the decision to publicly reveal an unusual amount of classified information about Russia's preparations for war. In early February, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Moscow was set to 'produce a very graphic propaganda video, which would include corpses and actors that would be depicting mourners,' pretending the scene was the result of a Ukrainian attack -- a pretext for invasion. Soon after, journalists were invited to meet with senior intelligence officials who hardly ever speak to the press. Those officials said Russia was stepping up its preparations for a major military assault on Kyiv. Reporters were shown a map with the predicted Russian troop movements. They were even given an expected date of attack: mid-February, after the conclusion of the Beijing Winter Olympics. The scenario offered that day to the world's media was met with skepticism in Europe. The date The exact date of the attack was eventually pushed back a few days, but the Biden administration was so sure that its intelligence was correct that on the evening of February 23, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he believed an invasion would begin before the night was over stateside. On the morning of February 24, Russian forces invaded Ukraine. The US intelligence community had been right all along, except for a few details. US analysts did not predict how fiercely Ukrainians would defend their country, nor did they count on the dogged determination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose bravery has galvanized his compatriots. According to intelligence predictions, many in the US feared Kyiv would fall within 48 hours, and that Zelensky would be quickly ousted in favor of a pro-Russian leader. As the invasion enters its third week, the Ukrainian capital remains out of Russian hands and Zelensky earned a standing ovation from British lawmakers after he addressed them via video link. US intelligence also worried the Ukrainian military would be quickly paralyzed by a Russian cyberattack, which did not materialize.
Over 2.3 million Ukrainians flee Russian invasion AFP
That's because, while Kyiv has modernized its armed forces, its Soviet-era planes have not been upgraded, and use the same communications systems as the Russian army -- meaning Moscow cannot cripple the Ukrainians without hurting their own effort. US intelligence has estimated that war in Ukraine could have a horrific human toll, with 25,000 to 50,000 civilians killed, as many as 25,000 Ukrainian soldiers slain and up to 10,000 Russian military personnel killed. Officials raised the possibility of between one and five million refugees, many of whom would be headed towards Poland. Indeed, as of Wednesday, the Pentagon put the number of Russian fatalities at 2,000-4,000, and the United Nations said more than two million refugees have already left the eastern European country. © 2022 AFP