Date: 2024-09-27 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00025340
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
TOM BILYEU WITH RAOUL PAL
Tom Bilyeu with Raoul Pal: We're Already In A Recession. Only Question Is, Will It Be Worse Than 2008?
TOM BILYEU WITH RAOUL PAL
Tom Bilyeu with Raoul Pal: We're Already In A Recession. Only Question Is, Will It Be Worse Than 2008?
Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UzMNewP5pc
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
This is a long video. Though it is very interesting, I do not agree with a lot of what is talked about. Specifically I agree with his description of a lot of important economic events, but I differ materially with the 'cause' that he attributes to the event.
When I first listened to the presentation, I did not know what Raoul Pal did for a living, but when I learned he was involved with the stock market and venture capital, it was easier to understand why his analysis of 'cause' was weak while his understanding of the actual outcome was solid.
There is almost nothing in this video that I agree with 100% ... but an awful lot that is worth more analysis. As I referenced, the conversation touches on many important issues but almost always fails to come to quite the same conclusion that I do.
I have archived this video because it is thought provoking rather than because I agree with it. My own interpretation of the cause and effect relationships are different and my conclusions about the current state of the US and global economy are more positive in some respects while being at the same time seeing the economic situation as being in a bigger crisis simply because the metrics are so flawed and the policy options therefore insufficient.
My thinking on this is a 'work-in-progress' but I am optimistic that things can be better in the future. I would observe that many things got better from 1800 to 1900 ... and then from 1900 to 2000, and the potential for things to get better this century exists, but it requires avoiding major potential missteps!
Peter Burgess
Tom Bilyeu
3.76M subscribers ... 1,547,379 views ... 22K likes
Jun 8, 2023
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Raoul Pal has become a legend in global economics as one of the most successful former hedge fund managers, and one of the most brilliant thought leaders that thoroughly understands how to navigate and explain the complexities of the global financial markets.
Get ready for another mind blowing conversation around America’s collapse and the potential financial crisis that’s going to make the next 20 years intense. We go deep on this conversation discussing:
- The impact of the debt cycle and hyperinflation
- Potential breakthroughs in the tech sector
- The unstoppable nature of technology marked by AI models
QUOTES:
“That was the death of the American dream that happened. The American dream was you participate in the US economy, you get richer, the reality is it didn't happen.”
“By every indicator I've got, we're in a recession already and it will become more abundantly clear.”
“There is an understanding that the world is too much in debt and there's no way of dealing with this without us all going back into caveman times. So this is the answer.”
“The thing that's actually driving the S&P 500 is the Fed balance sheet. It's not companies.”
“Once you digitize things the cost goes to zero”
“In my lifetime there's a 20 or 30 year period which might be a truly extraordinary moment, […] the issue is, we can't see through the other side of it, and that's terrifying.”
Follow Raoul Pal:
- Website: https://www.realvision.com/
- Twitter: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/raoul-pal...