Date: 2024-10-19 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00026594
THE UKDRAINE WAR
SILICON BITES UPDATE ... ARPIL 16TH 2024
Silicon Bites - #41 - Strikes Against Russian Oil Infrastructure is Ukraine's Most Potent Weapon.
SILICON BITES UPDATE ... ARPIL 16TH 2024
Silicon Bites - #41 - Strikes Against Russian Oil Infrastructure is Ukraine's Most Potent Weapon.
Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC9F-0m3Un8
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
Peter Burgess
- welcome to Silicon bites episode 41 and amidst all the Doom and Gloom of the
- lack of weapon supplies to Ukraine especially from the US and also reports
- that Russia is making huge gains on the front we'll question actually how huge
- those gains actually are amid all of this negative talk about Ukraine I also
- want to focus in this episode on the advantages that Ukraine has and one of
- those advantages is huge it is potential of Ukrainian forces to conduct long
- range drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and potentially other fuel
- related facilities we're going to look at some of the deeper analysis and Reporting around this topic starting
- with foreign policy Ukraine takes the war to Russia's oil refineries Kev aims
- to do with explosion what two years of Western sanctions haven't yet managed says foreign policy
- on March the 27th report States in recent weeks Ukraine has found a way to
- overcome a lack of Aid and the death of ammunition by using long range drones to
- strike oil industry assets deep inside Russia the attacks on Russian oil
- refineries and now we have seen more than a dozen of them include some very
- long range strikes and these have the ability to seriously damage Russia's
- ability to process and refine its huge output of crude oil that has dealt so
- far a relatively small blow but a meaningful blow to the Russian energy sector that so far has weathered has got
- through the Apparently intense Western sanctions and remained in surprisingly
- good shape well we're going to look at some of the reasons why that is including the creation of Russia's gray
- Fleet and why is this important well the Kremlin gets around 40% of its federal
- budget from the export of crude oil and refined products and of course Russia's
- war machine is very much dependent on those refined oil products this
- therefore is a key sector in the Russian economy a key part that enables the
- Kremlin to increase defense spending which it is massively doing overall and as a proportion of its overall budget it
- allows the Kremlin to rebuild its armies and in fact recent reports show that it
- has almost entirely used up the original army that it had when it invaded Ukraine
- and the signs and the scale of the army that it currently has is almost entirely
- dependent on people who recruited since the launch of Putin's so-called special
- military operation this oil purchasing allows Russia to bring in huge amounts
- of foreign made weapons and crucially Western components to carry on building
- missiles and we now believe manufacture drones based on the Iranian shahib model
- in Russia itself probably assembling the parts rather than building any of those components from scratch Russian
- refineries also churn out millions of barrels a day of products crucial to
- Russia's war effort this includes Diesel and aviation fuel which is required to
- keep Russia's death machine in the air and moving forward on the ground
- Ukrainian strikes so far have damaged numerous refineries and started many
- fires at those facilities as well this is estimated to have knocked out between 400 and
- 900,000 barrels a day of refining capacity according to estimates from
- energy experts and defense officials now we cannot know how many of those plants
- are fully or permanently out of action or what capacity Russia has to do
- repairs or indeed whether there is refining capacity even in those facilities that were hit to carry on
- working so while the impact of the Ukrainian strikes has varied from Refinery to Refinery it does have a
- percent some major issues for Moscow first the continued attacks will further
- stretch Russia's limited air defenses and that is across far further and
- further flung parts of the Russian territory a vast sprawling territory
- which is practically impossible to defend and as we've said in the previous silicon bites there are potentially
- thousands of facilities that Ukraine could hit that play a role within
- Russia's War Machine facilities chilling out missiles bombs Glide bombs
- refurbishing tanks and so on secondly due to the Western sanctions and this is
- one bit which actually does seem to be working repairs to the advanced
- refineries are much much more difficult because many of the components required
- to service repair or upgrade gr the refineries are becoming far more
- difficult and far more expensive for Russia to import now the Kremlin has
- claimed that its strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities are retaliation that is clearly a bogus
- claim because when it could strike energy facilities last year Russia did
- so it's only the inability to get through Ukrainian air defense over the
- last 12 months or so that has meant that it wasn't hitting Ukrainian energy
- infrastructure as hard as it would have liked to now of course with the current
- impass in the American political system it does seem that Ukraine is running
- short on Munitions for systems like Hawk and Patriot uh in order to protect the
- skies around Kev uh hariv and other major Urban centers and this is the
- reason why Moscow has been able to get its missiles through to destroy big
- sways of Ukrainian energy infrastructure when previously it couldn't the idea of
- Moscow holding back is one that a lot of propagandists repeat over and over but
- if you look at the facts on the ground it is plainly ludicrous the terror and
- destruction that Russia inflicts upon Ukraine is directly related to its
- capacity to inflict that not its willingness that is almost unlimited but
- these strikes on energy facilities do seem to be Rippling through the trading rooms in New York and London Global oil
- prices have stayed above $80 a barrel and seem to be rising in the last couple
- of days that of course is fueling concerns that the escalation of Ukrainian attacks could inflict further
- damage on one of the world's biggest oil producers and exporters but at the same
- time a spike in prices could also benefit Russia and it could deal a blow
- to Biden in the fourth coming us election supporters of Biden and Biden
- Administration itself who are facing that election in the Autumn do seem extremely nervous about the Ukrainian
- drone campaign us officials have reportedly asked Ukraine to limit the strikes on Russi all facilities that
- could lead to higher prices Kev has made it clear that the campaign will continue
- in that I think they are absolutely correct to say this they have found a
- lever they have found a strategy that genuinely hurts Russia's ability to fund
- its War uh It generally hurts Russia's ability to grease the wheels of that war
- with the fuel oils that it needs it also makes Putin and his gang of thugs look
- incredibly weak especially and we come to this in a minute especially in a week
- where floods are devastating parts of Russia and it is quite clear there is
- neither the will nor the intent nor the resources to deal with the outcome of those floods because the Kremlin is
- purely focused on executing its genocidal war in Ukraine and we reported
- on this during the week but it Bears repetition because I think it is a disgraceful comment a White House
- National Security spokesperson John Kirby reiterated that we do not encourage or enable the Ukrainian
- military to conduct strikes inside Russia since the start of the war the
- Biden Administration has been really wary of squeezing Russia's energy Golden
- Goose too hard says foreign policy lest it has a knock on effect on global
- Energy prices the Embargo of Russian oil exports was only gradually phased in and
- a price cap on Russ crude oil meant to limit moscow's energy earnings has
- proved to be disappointing and largely in effective well we're going to look at
- some of the reasons for that in a second and building on that report here is an
- article by Sky News pointing out that the price of Brent crude has climbed
- above $89 per barrel uh following the strikes on Russian oil facilities by Ukraine and
- whereas the concerns are certainly understandable asking a country that is
- under genocidal assault by a fascistic regime such as Russia asking them to die
- quietly for the sake of a smooth election or to keep oil prices low is
- disingenuous and quite frankly disgusting and many of the commentators
- over the weekend are fervently hopeful that Ukraine will ignore the these kind
- of requests coming out of Washington and other capitals because it has found a
- way to get Russia over a barrel as it were and to an extent make up for the
- deficit of Munitions and capability on the front lines now it's my strong
- belief that Ukraine will gain many of the Munitions it needs over the coming
- weeks and months it's always slow it's always after the time when those are
- most needed and of course it is always after Ukraine has sustained
- extraordinary losses terrible losses of its troops which it may not have had to
- do if it was properly equipped and supplied in good time but it is what it
- is but some Publications this weekend are going even further and saying that
- the concern in Washington and other capitals about oil prices is not just to
- do with the escalating price PR increase and the KnockOn it may have in electoral
- processes that are claims that actually big oil companies are the real force
- behind the US criticism of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries well
- you'll know from the previous silicon bites that escalation management is very much a feature of the US policy so
- clearly that desire not to upset Russia not to provoke Russia inverted commas is
- definitely there but this angle on big business is also interesting of course
- it's a tragedy that we've gone from as long as it takes to as long as we can
- and now we seem to be the territory of as long as it doesn't upset the Kremlin
- and that should definitely not be the guiding Factor behind policy nor I would
- argue should large companies be influencing foreign policy but we know
- that for decades this is lik to be the case it is also speculated that the
- seizure of Russian Central Bank assets of which many of the arguments made are
- on moral legal grounds which are shaky to put it mildly but actually again the
- speculation is that it's big business those companies that are still operating in Russia or have Assets in Russia that
- are the main voice in preventing the seizure of Russian Central Bank assets
- because they fear a likeforlike confiscation of their Assets in Russia
- well I can tell them right now one this is deeply immoral two their assets are
- going to be seized at some point anyway we've got a story towards the end of this episode which talks about the
- creeping nationalization of private Enterprise in Russia so again we are
- potentially delaying something that could have a huge impact on Ukraine's ability to fight the war and we are
- doing that for largely spurious reasons well let's have a look at this Euro Maan
- press article here about the influence of big oil on US foreign policy and US
- defense secretary Lloyd Austin echoed statements from White House and State Department officials criticizing
- Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries citing of course potential
- energy repercussions now a lot of people who are experts in the oil industry have
- pointed out that that is a bit spurious because a lot of these oil products are
- being used domestically in Russia and are unlikely to have an influence on the
- price of global crude the levels of output however do have a huge impact
- that is the levels of output of OPEC countries us and so on and therein there
- may be some levers that the Biden Administration could pull we also see the instability and the middle least and
- the acts of houthis as being potentially a more significant impactor of global
- oil prices because they can directly affect export and shipping that
- crucially is relied upon for much of this global trade so the US has not
- given or sold Ukraine anything with which it could strike tactical and operational Targets in Russia so these
- 14:57
- capabilities are very much one that ukrainians have developed for themselves
- 15:02
- and it is their Sovereign right to do so but focusing on what is driving Lloyd
- 15:08
- Austin and other positions within the US Administration a Ukrainian energy expert
- 15:14
- mik hona has analyzed the situation and identified several other factors He
- 15:20
- suggests the real Reon Global Energy prices are being impacted is not strikes
- 15:26
- against Russian facilities but it is the inability of the US Le coalition to deal
- 15:33
- with houthis in Yemen whose attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea have forced
- 15:38
- them to use longer and more expensive routs hona also suggests that the change
- 15:46
- in Lloyd Austin stance who previously has been relatively hawkish with regards
- 15:52
- to Russia and supporting Ukraine he says that this may be the result of pressure
- 15:57
- from external influence for instance through US oil Giants Exxon
- 16:02
- Mobile and Chevron in 2022 these companies reported revenues of 235
- 16:08
- billion and 413 billion respectively far surpassing
- 16:13
- the entirety of Ukraine's GDP which currently amounts to around $160 billion
- 16:21
- these corporations he claims maintain powerful lobbies within us administrations regardless of who OCC
- 16:28
- occupies the White House and here we have another lever that unfortunately
- 16:33
- Russia can pull to potentially escalate prices and this is oil from Kazakhstan
- 16:40
- which is transported to Global markets via the Caspian pipeline Consortium now
- 16:46
- this runs primarily through Russia and is operated by the Russian Monopoly
- 16:52
- trans nft this Arrangement he claims allows Russia to control the flow of oil
- 16:58
- from America American companies in Kazakhstan potentially using it as a lever to influence us policy chevron's
- 17:07
- tenis oil and gas field in Kazakhstan was developed through tenis Chevron oil
- 17:14
- joint venture and is a significant source of revenue for the country Chevron continues to expand production
- 17:21
- and has invested over 40 billion in a new phase of that oil and gas field
- 17:28
- previously IND analysts warned that the CPC pipeline route and the tenis chevan
- 17:34
- oil joint venture were vulnerable to potential Russian retaliation against
- 17:40
- West sanctions imposed in response to the invasion of Ukraine Chevron claims
- 17:45
- not to be concerned by this however and this article contains a lot more detail
- 17:51
- for those who are interested in the weak points of global oil supply and areas
- 17:56
- where Russia can exert influence this is is definitely a sobering and interesting
- 18:01
- read and forms digs in in further detail claiming Ukraine has developed 15 kinds
- 18:07
- of longrange strike drones and has used many of them in sorties against Russia's
- 18:13
- oil industry at the moment this is confined to the oil refining capacity we
- 18:19
- do have to ask ourselves if Ukraine comes under further physical threat and
- 18:25
- actually if that threat becomes existential to the very existence of the Ukrainian State we have to ask what they
- 18:31
- wouldn't do in fact what you wouldn't do if faced with a similar circumstance so
- 18:37
- widening the strikes against Russian oil industry is something that has to be
- 18:43
- considered as a potential next step in Ukraine's struggle to survive let alone
- 18:50
- be victorious against its giant aggressive neighbor so it could strike
- 18:55
- other infrastructure for instance transportation es ports the export of
- 19:01
- raw crude which it hasn't yet included in its targets all these must be
- 19:08
- considered by Ukraine in order for it to survive the onslaught from Russia and
- 19:15
- the US Administration needs to understand this escalation management will not work when Ukraine is faced with
- 19:23
- Annihilation Ukraine should and I think would do everything it needs needs to do
- 19:29
- in order to gain the upper hand and oil seems to be the best lever that it can
- 19:35
- pull well there's some great detail in this form's article about the different types of drones the different
- 19:42
- development that's gone on to uh produce them and it lists some of the strikes
- 19:47
- that have been used by different drone types based on their technical capacities so this is an interesting one
- 19:53
- to read and the link is in the description of this video now we turn to
- 19:59
- the shadow Fleet again it's something we have mentioned in interviews with Jerry Hendrick and others we've mentioned it
- 20:05
- in other silicon bites but here is a fascinating article by Vox talking about
- 20:11
- Russia's Shadow Fleet that is sneaking oil around the world and it points out
- 20:17
- and this is an incredibly important point that Israeli discussed it's an ecological disaster waiting to happen
- 20:23
- the world's next big Maritime catastrophe could involve sanctions dodging Russian rust buckets that are
- 20:31
- not part of the global Maritime insurance industry the shadow Fleet is
- 20:37
- of growing concern not only because of the revenue that these oil shipments bring to Moscow which fuels its more
- 20:44
- than 2-year-old War but because of the nature of the ships themselves writes voog they tend to be older they may be
- 20:51
- less well maintained and they're run by less experienced Crews and of course they carry less or no Insurance uh that
- 21:00
- they should do now this was a comment by Eric bosen head of the tanker research
- 21:05
- at poon and partners and oil and gas consulting firm but the shadow fleet has
- 21:12
- created a booming market for old tankers including many that are over 20 years
- 21:17
- old the average age of tankers departing Russia's Baltic Sea port of kinr is now
- 21:23
- close to 30 years old that makes it more likely the ships have fallen condition
- 21:29
- and makes them more prent accidents so not only are we risking a Russian
- 21:36
- Victory not only are we appeasing Russia by turning a blind eye and letting them
- 21:41
- get away with it we are also enabling an incredible time bomb that could destroy
- 21:47
- the Ecology of seas like the Baltic Sea or the Black Sea which are precious
- 21:53
- Marine environments action ought to be taken against this for number of reasons
- 21:59
- as the article points out why is it so important for Ukraine to potentially
- 22:07
- increase its strikes against Russian oil capacity well at the moment it seems
- 22:12
- that around 12 to 14% of Russia's capacity to create refined fuel oils has
- 22:18
- been hit but Nova gazetta has written an important article dated 14th of April
- 22:24
- that talks about the so-called stalemate in Ukraine and fact that Russia is in no
- 22:31
- way ready to negotiate Russia the article writes has a Readiness to throw
- 22:37
- absolutely everything that it has at the war this article written by Dr
- 22:42
- Christopher Morris of the University of Portsmouth begins not long ago the situation Ukraine could have been
- 22:49
- characterized as stalemate today the situation of the Defenders is worse with
- 22:54
- Ukrainian positions heavily contested along long sections of the front line
- 22:59
- Russian troops are advancing and concern is building that they may be able to break through now this kind of reporting
- 23:07
- needs to be tempered with some of the other stuff we see coming out about the Russian front lines yes they're breaking
- 23:14
- through but where there is intelligence of armored vehicles and tanks in use we are seeing heavy use of the
- 23:22
- t55 that's a tank produced shortly after the start of the Cold War and this isn't
- 23:28
- just raw recruits who are driving these some of the most elite units of the
- 23:33
- Russian army have been seen in t55 that suggests a certain level of desperation
- 23:40
- that suggests that stocks of more modern battle tanks and Munitions are certainly
- 23:46
- low if not exhausted on the Russians side but as Dr Christopher Morris points
- 23:53
- out these advances are not gamechanging yet however they do indicate that Russia
- 23:59
- can move forward that it still intends to win the ground war and it is backed by aircraft and guided bombs gide bombs
- 24:07
- which are having quite an impact on the front line Russian troops can put pressure on Ukrainian forces who are
- 24:14
- overstretched exhausted and of course we know are short on equipment now both the
- 24:20
- Glide bombs and Russia's ability to control the air at present or its
- 24:26
- increased ability to control the air War could of course experience a huge setback if Ukraine were to get f-16s if
- 24:34
- they'd already received f16s when they were promised then Ukraine would likely
- 24:40
- not be in the position it finds itself today but the article States admittedly
- 24:46
- what Russia has been able to accomplish so far this year doesn't feel much like
- 24:51
- winning they've recaptured some important territory though the price paid has been enormous the Capt of AA
- 24:59
- alone cost Russia thousands of troops and hundreds of vehicles stopping these
- 25:05
- advances from turning into breakthroughs is costly for Ukraine despite all of its
- 25:12
- losses Russia still seems to be massing forces for further offensives and of
- 25:17
- course we hear rumors and speculation about the latest Mass mobilization that
- 25:24
- will be kicked off apparently over the next couple of weeks weeks and months and the nature of the front line is
- 25:31
- changing too the presence of drones is increasing The lethality of artillery is increasing with of course drone
- 25:38
- Communications and the drones are making any kind of Rapid movement Warfare all
- 25:44
- but impossible both sides are dug in there are extensive networks of trenches
- 25:50
- and minefields around key locations and as per the US advice to Ukraine when the
- 25:55
- summer offensive seemed to fail last year here Ukraine has started digging in
- 26:01
- to many key positions along the massive front line but what is happening to
- 26:07
- change this scenario well Vladimir zilinski has now signed into law a bill
- 26:12
- on the 2nd of April which lowers the conscription age from 27 to 25 and
- 26:18
- Ukraine's Parliament has just passed a bill to overhaul the country's system of
- 26:24
- mobilization all the details are not yet out and not entirely clear but it does seem Ukraine is gearing up for a much
- 26:32
- more extensive mobilization now that is not going to be hugely popular if there is a suspicion that Ukraine does not
- 26:39
- have the weapons it needs to allow those new troops to be trained properly and to
- 26:45
- do the job so this is an absolutely critical time with Russia clearly intent
- 26:51
- on taking more Ukrainian territory and Ukraine gearing up to meet that threat
- 26:58
- the owners should be on Europe and the US now to give Ukraine the Munitions it
- 27:03
- needs so those additional troops are not mobilized in vain and it cannot have
- 27:09
- escaped people's attention that Iran has a attacked Israel over the weekend and
- 27:16
- in some ways very much using the tactics that Russia has been using against
- 27:22
- Ukraine Iran has learned the lessons from Russian strikes against Ukraine TR
- 27:28
- to hit Israel says the Kiev Post in an article dated from this weekend the
- 27:34
- composition of the ongoing Iranian attack on Israel is similar to the composition of Russian strikes that have
- 27:40
- repeatedly targeted Ukraine on a near daily basis these Russian strikes have
- 27:47
- attempted to deliver the optimal package to penetrate Western Air and missile
- 27:54
- defenses it seems however that the Iranians in copying these tactics have not successfully broken through
- 28:01
- into Israeli cities or broken through the the Iron Dome defensive system
- 28:07
- Russia however has experimented with combinations of ballistic and cruise missiles alongside Iranian drones Iran's
- 28:15
- use of drones and missiles show how Iran is learning from the Russians to develop
- 28:20
- increasingly dangerous and effective strike packages against Israel Iran as
- 28:26
- we've noted before is also using using the houthi attacks in the Red Sea to
- 28:31
- refine Iranian drone tactics by testing US Naval Air defenses now we will cover
- 28:37
- this topic in more detail as it invols at this point it is not exactly clear
- 28:43
- whether Iran attacking Israel is beneficial to Russia because it deflects from the Ukraine war because it puts the
- 28:51
- focus on supporting Israel rather than Ukraine but if it provokes a massive
- 28:57
- retaliation against Iran that could actually have a negative effect in
- 29:02
- galvanizing the West into action in targeting the Drone factories in Iran
- 29:08
- and really taking seriously the disruption of the houthis and the disruption of transport of Munitions
- 29:16
- components equipment and so on between Iran and Russia now we will only be able
- 29:22
- to tell that course of action as it unfolds through the week and over the
- 29:28
- coming weeks and months now zilinski has roundly condemned the Iranian missile
- 29:34
- and drone attack on Israel this is reported in the Kev independent President Vladimir zilinski on April the
- 29:41
- 14th condemned Iran's massive AAL attack on Israel saying Ukraine is familiar
- 29:47
- with the horrors of similar attacks and he's used this opportunity to call on
- 29:53
- allies to do more to prevent escalation in the Middle East but also he's been
- 29:58
- quite clear that this highlights that when the West has the will to defend one
- 30:04
- of its allies then it can bring extreme force to bear and this has left many
- 30:09
- ukrainians asking the question if Israel deserves this immediate response then
- 30:15
- why doesn't Ukraine the sound of Shahid drones is a tool of Terror said selinski
- 30:23
- it is the same in the Skies over the Middle East and Europe he said in a state on X this sound must serve as a
- 30:30
- wakeup call to the Free World demonstrating that our unity and resoluteness can save lives and prevent
- 30:38
- the spread of worldwide Terror I'll put a link to the article in the full speech
- 30:44
- I think his words are incredibly important and zilinski I'm glad to see
- 30:49
- is no longer pulling his punches he's calling out double standards he is
- 30:54
- demanding what Ukraine needs and he right to do so he should not be
- 31:00
- embarrassed about that he should not temper his words when faced with the
- 31:06
- lack of support from the US over the last six months he should Express the truth as he sees it in in the powerful
- 31:14
- forceful way that he is entirely capable of doing and this is very important as
- 31:20
- we've said at the start of this episode because of the situation on the Eastern front and here's an article uh where the
- 31:27
- world words of the commander of Ukrainian forces sirki are quoted from
- 31:32
- the Kev independent he says the situation on the Eastern Front has significantly deteriorated over the last
- 31:40
- few days amid an intensification of Russia's offensive efforts the die
- 31:46
- warning comes against the backdrop of a shortage of ammunition plaguing the Ukrainian military that of course is
- 31:52
- exacerbated As We Know by the impass in Congress over us Aid also unseasonably
- 31:59
- warm and dry weather seems to have enabled Russia to increase its armored
- 32:05
- assault in areas of bahmut Lyman and pakros the general said that the temper
- 32:11
- of the Russian offensive in the East has heightened since last month's presidential election which saw Vladimir
- 32:18
- Putin uh winning another six-year term in office of course that election is
- 32:24
- widely thought to have been completely rigged Ukraine is working to stabilize
- 32:30
- the situation and strengthen the most problematic defensive areas of the front line with electronic warfare and air
- 32:37
- defense it's also reported that Ukraine has started to deploy extensive Mine
- 32:42
- Fields in that sense mirroring strategies that we see were deployed
- 32:48
- last year by the Russians but the intensity of fighting comes at a cost
- 32:54
- and this is certainly a disturbing article from the K of independent it says that due to the intense fighting
- 33:00
- and lack of resources it means that many wounded soldiers on the Ukrainian side
- 33:06
- are unfortunately left on their own they're unable to be evacuated or if
- 33:11
- they do get medical treatment then it is on a limited sense at the front lines
- 33:18
- and the evacuation of their troops may be happening too slowly to save lives
- 33:25
- and this is the harrowing story of Mika who visited trenches in the dnet oist an
- 33:32
- hour after it was hit by Russian trones The 40-Year-Old Ukrainian Soldier immediately started going through bodies
- 33:39
- looking for signs of life he knew that Four soldiers had been taking shelter there yet he saw only two bodies and no
- 33:47
- one else when I got there he said those two were already cold it was mid-February the men's limbs were torn
- 33:53
- off there's no time to linger Around The Dugout position near the Russian occupied bmot in eastern denet oist
- 34:02
- could easily become a Target again so he left later he learned what had happened
- 34:07
- Four soldiers were on their way back to the rear from the Frontline positions from a shift change and took cover in
- 34:13
- The Dugout when Russian drones hit it two were killed immediately one was wounded and one is considered missing
- 34:20
- what happened next is typical for parts of the front line that suffer from the lack of combat Medics and Frontline in
- 34:27
- evacuation the wounded soldier got out of his Dugout and walked to the nearest evacuation Point located a few hundred
- 34:35
- meters away on his own as positions as heavily shelled and close to Russian
- 34:40
- troops as this one soldiers say that medical evacuation doesn't exist I know
- 34:46
- I am going to meet death there Mika says who goes by the K sign nimi evacuation
- 34:53
- is unfortunately impossible in the current conditions well there are more
- 34:58
- stories more firsthand eyewitness accounts in this story of course we'll post a link in the description of the
- 35:05
- video and Russia seems to have set itself a Target to capture shiv Yar by
- 35:12
- Victory Day on May the 9th sirit says in a followup to his address reported in
- 35:19
- the Kev independent the Russian military leadership set a goal to capture the town of chivar just west of the Russian
- 35:27
- occup by bmot says Commander Siri on April the 14th on May the 9th Russia
- 35:34
- celebrates Victory Day a heavily militarized holiday marking the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in
- 35:40
- World War II Russian troops are concentrating their efforts to break through west of occupied bakut Siri said
- 35:47
- he explained that they're trying to reach the C danat Canal an artificial
- 35:53
- Waterway south of the river it's named after and sees sh C Yar to Advanced
- 35:59
- further toward kator glomeration the enemy's plans are being hampered by the
- 36:04
- heroic defense of our brigades whove literally dug themselves into the ground holding off the enemy's daily attacks he
- 36:12
- said this article contains more detail about those reported Russian plans and
- 36:18
- again provides some absolutely harrowing tesy about the effort the heric effort
- 36:24
- of ukrainians to hold the Russians at Bay and as well as the gaps in enforcing oil sanctions it seems there are huge
- 36:32
- gaps in enforcing other kind of exports that benefit Russia's war effort this
- 36:38
- includes drone components and missile Parts which allow Russia to continue its
- 36:44
- murderous assault on Ukrainian cities towns and Villages military aid for
- 36:50
- Ukraine is limited while Russia continues to have access to critical components needed to produce missiles
- 36:56
- and drones says President Vladimir zilinski as was reported in the K of
- 37:02
- independent on April the 14th each missile Target in Ukraine contains at
- 37:07
- least dozens of components Electronics chips supplied by companies from other
- 37:12
- countries and imported through the territory of Russia's neighbors all this
- 37:19
- must be stopped and it can be stopped including the tolerance of Terror the
- 37:24
- ability of terrorists to seek allies around the world and Russian Terror
- 37:29
- itself in all its manifestations he said zilinski added that the fact that
- 37:35
- sanctions against Russia are still being circumvented and that Ukraine's been waiting for US military aid for months
- 37:42
- shows that the terrorists confidence has been on the rise for months as well we
- 37:49
- cannot waste any more time he said I think everyone watching this channel
- 37:55
- would entirely agree with that sentiment and meanwhile while Russia throws
- 38:00
- everything it has economically militarily as well as resources at its
- 38:06
- war in Ukraine it means that Russia is neglecting investment in the home front
- 38:13
- it means that Specialists and equipment that could deal with disasters in Russia
- 38:18
- itself are now no longer available and are no longer a priority the Moscow
- 38:25
- times reports that flooding in Russia's orenburg region has has been intense and
- 38:31
- the worst in decades Russia declared a state of emergency in the orenberg
- 38:37
- region as it grappled with the worst floods in decades with further flooding expected in Western Siberia Kuran and
- 38:45
- tuman regions the Ural River overran its banks in the towns of orsk over the weekend after torrential rain burst a
- 38:52
- nearby Dam that led to the city being submerged in water and has forced
- 38:58
- thousands from their homes we've also started to see extraordinary outbursts
- 39:04
- of public anger the kind of anger and confrontation of officials that we do
- 39:09
- not see in relation to Ukraine war but here we do start to see that bowling
- 39:15
- over and it is fascinating to see Russian civilians actually vocalizing
- 39:21
- opposition to officials now we have to remember these are local officials and often it is the strategy of the Kremlin
- 39:27
- to pass down blame to Governors and local officials as a way of deflecting
- 39:34
- criticism from its own management of the country and the economy but it is
- 39:40
- absolutely certain that Russia's prosecution of the war in Ukraine has
- 39:46
- left it weakened to deal with such domestic catastrophes and indeed the
- 39:51
- entire Putin system of government the vertical of power has resulted in
- 39:57
- Decades of underinvestment as well as corruption and nepotism which means that
- 40:03
- when money is invested it is often not effective Emergency Services warned that
- 40:10
- the combination of rain and snow melt amid unusually warm temperatures could cause more rivers to flood and overflow
- 40:18
- and this is expected to Peak on Wednesday of this week here are some of
- 40:23
- the dramatic photos that have been playing during this segment showing the
- 40:28
- extraordinary scale of the devastation and of course many commentators have
- 40:34
- said that there is an element of karma in this we would not wish ill to any
- 40:41
- civilians of any country in fact but there is an element of karma given that
- 40:46
- Russia is likely to have purposely destroyed the kovka dams in Ukraine last
- 40:53
- year causing similar scenes of devastation in that instance however
- 40:59
- rescue workers were having to fight to get civilians under conditions of being
- 41:05
- shot at and shelled so that is a substantial difference to what Rescuers
- 41:11
- are facing in Russia however many of the Specialists who would have dealt with
- 41:17
- that kind of flood and indeed equipment that may have been deployed well a lot of that has probably been turned to
- 41:24
- scrap on the battlefields of Ukraine ukine and here are a couple of stories
- 41:30
- that we're going to quickly mention before the end of the segment but I think they are quite important because
- 41:36
- they show the direction of travel in Russia this one is from the Moscow times
- 41:41
- and it talks about the kremlin's creeping nationalizations and in this instance it has hit businesses in chabin
- 41:49
- metals plants Agri businesses and food firms owned by chabinsky top businessman and politician
- 41:57
- s have been subject to nationalization suits that have been bought in through
- 42:03
- Hasty proceedings in Russian courts the kremlin's wartime campaign of forced
- 42:08
- nationalization has hit the mountainous chabin region a major industrial center
- 42:15
- perhaps more than any other oist since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine
- 42:21
- Russian prosecutors have targeted 55 Enterprises comprising metal chemicals
- 42:28
- Agri business and even a major car dealership for compulsory State takeover
- 42:35
- according to figures released on the RBC News website but in recent weeks metal
- 42:42
- plants and Agri business food stores as well owned by top businessmen in the area as well as politicians have been
- 42:49
- subject to nationalization suits bought in through the courts and what we are
- 42:54
- seeing is that assets are likely being trans transferred to regime Loyalists
- 43:00
- and away from those whove perhaps been silent or muted in their support of
- 43:06
- Russia's military operations in Ukraine the pretexts for wartime nationalization
- 43:12
- suits range from claims of unlawful privatization to Enterprises coming under foreign control and alleged
- 43:19
- breaches of Russian anti-corruption legislation well in reality the Russian
- 43:25
- courts are a tool that can be entirely manipulated by power these kind of
- 43:30
- lawsuits are likely to be entirely spurious but a society which essentially
- 43:36
- does not have any foundations of rule of law and where it is often the will of
- 43:42
- the most powerful that prevails this is hardly a surprise and in that vertical
- 43:47
- structure we know that the Kremlin is the ultimate power and ultimate Arbiter
- 43:54
- of what may happen in courts who may be prosecuted and under what pretext it's
- 44:01
- highly likely we will see a lot more of these nationalizations as Russia seeks
- 44:08
- to scrape together more and more resources to throw into its pointless
- 44:14
- destructive war in Ukraine here's a quick story from the Kev independent
- 44:20
- that may be interesting to follow through as we get closer to the US presidential election it has been
- 44:27
- reported that Trump apparently thought that Ukraine must be part of Russia when
- 44:33
- he was president as president of the US Donald Trump made it very clear that he believed Ukraine must be a part of
- 44:40
- Russia his former advisor Fiona Hill wrote in an article for the guardian
- 44:46
- dated on April 12th this cites an excerpt from a book by the New York
- 44:51
- Times Reporter David Sanger in early April media reported citing undisclosed
- 44:57
- sources that Trump had privately said he could end Russia's War by pressuring
- 45:03
- Ukraine to seed Crimea and donbass to Moscow which however was denied by
- 45:09
- Trump's advisers Trump has repeatedly said he could end Russia's War within 24
- 45:15
- hours if elected president but the important thing to ask the important thing to ask any representative anyone
- 45:23
- who is standing under a Maga B anyone who supports the reelection of
- 45:30
- trump over Biden the important question to ask is how how will he end the war
- 45:37
- without specifying the specific steps required to reach a peace deal between
- 45:43
- Kiev and Moscow saying you can end it without saying how is disingenuous and
- 45:50
- it needs to be challenged even by those people who support Trump's reelection he
- 45:57
- really could not get his head around the idea that Ukraine was an independent
- 46:03
- state quotes Fiona Hill the book's author wrote that such a few of trump
- 46:08
- regarding Ukraine coincided exactly with that of the Kremlin and with Vladimir
- 46:14
- Putin who has repeatedly denied Ukraine's statehood and Independence and we have to note that
- 46:22
- Ukraine's President Vladimir zilinski has entirely rejected the idea of
- 46:27
- seeding the country's territories in exchange for peace and lastly here is
- 46:33
- another fascinating piece from the Kev independent and it is a poll of French
- 46:39
- youth which claims that almost half of them have stated they are willing to
- 46:44
- fight in Ukraine if it meant defending France over half of young French
- 46:51
- citizens would fight in Ukraine according to a poll cited by L parisen A
- 46:56
- French newspaper on April 12th The Institute for strategic studies of the military school and general directorate
- 47:04
- for international relations and strategy surveyed 2,300 young people aged between 18 and 25 last summer of the respondents
- 47:13
- 51% said yes including 177% absolutely agreeing and 34% answering maybe yes
- 47:22
- young French citizens also favor deploying French troops to Ukraine more
- 47:27
- than the older generation in the survey 31% of Youth thought positively about
- 47:32
- deploying French troops on the side of Ukraine while only 177% of those aged
- 47:38
- more than 50 agreed that is an extraordinary total and it is also
- 47:44
- reflected in macron's radical change of view and his much more vocal support of
- 47:52
- Ukraine and potentially far greater material support as as well that we've
- 47:57
- been noticing in recent weeks with Ukraine facing difficulties on the
- 48:02
- battlefield and hampered by delayed funding from the US which we've repeatedly mentioned some European
- 48:08
- countries are growing increasingly concerned that the war could spread
- 48:13
- Estonia and the Czech Republic have also said that Europe should not dismiss the idea of deploying troops for noncombat
- 48:21
- tasks in Ukraine and of course not to the front lines but to the unocc
- 48:26
- occupied parts of Ukrainian territory this is an extraordinary poll and I
- 48:31
- think we really need to dig into this further to see what the views of other
- 48:37
- populations throughout Europe are especially in countries that are extreme especially in countries like the UK that
- 48:44
- are extremely pro- Ukrainian we have seen the position on many countries change radically from two years ago from
- 48:52
- not supplying tanks to supplying tanks not supplying l long range missile
- 48:57
- capabilities such as scalp and Storm Shadow we are now starting to see
- 49:04
- movement on f-16s so what seemed impossible a number of months ago a
- 49:09
- number of years ago is now the reality so who knows what may happen over the
- 49:14
- next couple of months and as that threat increases in terms of Ukraine
- 49:20
- potentially seeding more territory to Russia we may see further movement
- 49:25
- amongst European an countries and I sincerely hope we do because a Ukrainian
- 49:31
- Victory is a victory for Europe as well a Ukrainian loss puts the security of
- 49:37
- Europe on an extremely dangerous and fragile footing