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GEOPOLITICS TIMES RADIO ... JUNE 25TH 2024 Times Radio: Putin's losses continue to rise as 'noose tightens' on his regime from sanctions \| Frontline PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_XOEuiqw4E Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Putin's losses continue to rise as 'noose tightens' on his regime from sanctions \| Frontline Times Radio Jun 23, 2024 863K subscribers ... 229,709 views ... 5.1K likes Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security Russia launched several new offensive operations as international sanctions increase on the Kremlin. South Korea considers sending weapons to Ukraine after Putin's DPRK visit. This week's Frontline experts discuss the latest: Maj. Gen. (Retd.) Chip Chapman Diane Francis, Author and Journalist Operator Starsky, Co-Founder The Propaganda Study Institute and Ukrainian Veteran Ian Williams, Author and Journalist Michael Bociurkiw, Canadian Journalist 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 📍 Subscribe to our channel - / @listentotimesradio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Transcript 0:00 the Russian offensive is really any anywhere you look both in um North and Northeast of K City in the Lans or blast and in the and in the donet OR blast they're really on a mark time offensive and they're really only making micro gains and if you the kind of words you use about the situation all along the front line really is either unchanged trying to advance without success or marginally Advanced so these are still just minor tactical gains which really have no operational import and um there are a number of reasons for that and the first thing is the impact of these weapons and particularly not just the American weapons but the sort of release authority of the weapons given by a number of Western Nations and by that I mean the the ability to strike you know deeper into Russian territory because although at the moment seninsky has been warning that there is still a grouping from the Northern uh grouping of forces which is 90 kilom away from KH Maj-Gen-Chip-Chapman-(retd) 1:05 essentially the second Echelon of forces you have to be able to bring that second Echelon of forces uh to bear and with the release Authority the uh ukrainians have been able to strike troop concentrations logistic builds up um Road convoys and things like that so will they bring be able to bring this second Echelon to Bear when the first Echelon is being mired in the mud I don't think they will because one of the things that we've seen throughout this campaign is although that um you know Communications and digital uh profiles act act and operate at the speed of light we've really have people who are operating at the speed of a crawl in terms of the Tactical opportunities so all this means that um the ability of the Russians to make offensive gains is really being inhibited now the other thing which the American weapons and the release authorities of the British and um Swedish French weapons has enabled is 2:05 the ukrainians to fight a far deeper campaign with the the ranges in in Crimea now that is significant because it's almost making Korea a Crimea untenable for the Russians in terms of strangling it as a logistic Hub pushing their air defense further away and their sea forces further away and it is significant that the you know on the only on the 10th June there are a number of s300 and S400 air defense systems taken out by um I think 10 American aach systems and the suggestions that the Russians are going to move their S500 Prometheus their um anti-ballistic missile defense into Crimea to try and have this um air defense bubble around Crimea now that would be significant to see what the um the sword versus The Shield would be in terms of of the Russian air defense against Western technology and Western 3:03 missile systems one of the things that you can say about the s300 and S400 which have had quite a lot of export success for the Russians is that it doesn't really work very effectively and that's also being one of the reasons for example that it's not being turned on in support of the Syrian air defense profile when the um Israelis have been attacking Iranian Targets in Syria the irgc targets over the last four or five years what do you think the current uh Ukrainian strategy is regarding Crimea has it changed or does it remain the same because according to some analysts for example the need to take out the Kirch bridge is no longer there and you've mentioned those successes and Strikes into crime itself well I think you've seen recently again a number of fies being taken out part of the um logistic support route as it were to Crime I think that psychologically um dropping the K 4:00 kirbridge would be helpful but I don't think you will see it being uh dropped at the moment by the ukrainians uh because you need to set the conditions for that operational and strategic success for dropping that bridge and that is when Putin would really be on the back foot because again it's the politics of Crimea from a Russian perspective that actually matter you know it was that sort of notion in 2014 that he was raising up and gathering in the Russian people by annexing Crimea and therefore everything from there on in would be a walkover and of course that's not been the case so if Crimea goes and is untenable then Putin uh potentially loses power that's always really been either directly or indirectly the uh Ukrainian notion of Victory really in the same way that Russia understands that it can't um take over geographically all the territory of Ukraine and it's theory of Victory goes along the lines of disrupting the the 5:04 willpower and determination of the West to support Ukraine and therefore leading to a a settlement which is on Russia terms and that's really the big Divergence that you've seen in the last week or so with the Russian notion of a peace plan versus zelinsky's notion of a peace plan in Switzerland last week the s500sx a weakness of moving them down to primier because the S500 is are there to be part of the anti-ballistic missile defense of um mosow replacing a system in the future but it's always a political necessity to protect your capital and then I think the the the um the ukrainians need to protect those areas which are you know far away from U far away from the front line uh because that gives you your rear area security it's where people can live in more sort 6:00 of Harmony not be psychologically Under Pressure U and take it from there so you know the capital is always the first thing your supply routes in from Europe and your other major cities evolve in the uh in the west um but there'll never be enough air defense to go everywhere coastline is Coastline around adessa and hon um blast is also significant because there's no doubt in my mind that the Russians would really have liked to take the complete bridge and make the coastline a a Russian Lake again and I don't think they got any chance of doing that either how do you expect the war to develop over the summer months and do you think that the combination of us Aid um the new ability to use foreign weapons and a limited way inside Russia these developments could could it mean that the most dangerous Point has been passed for Ukraine this year yeah I think the most dangerous point for Ukraine has passed but again it comes back to how Wars end neither side is going to be strong enough to conquer the 7:02 other in military terms or military geographic terms so if you get go back to the um second world war you know I and's directive because we've just had dedo was to you know with allies to go to the heart of Europe and destroy the German armies you're not going to see Russia in a position to do that neither are you going to see Ukraine in a position to do that to the Russian army and therefore you go back to how Wars end and they end in three ways way firstly by decisive military Victory chances of that still pretty low the second one because of the indecisiveness of military Victory which leads to some sort of negotiation uh that's not on the cards at the moment or the third one which is going to be on the cards of both of them at some stage but not yet is because either the political military sociological population economic social cultural social economic whatever you want costs are too great to one side and therefore the will and determination to to go on is diminished to a point where you need to have a settlement essentially that's what happened with the destruction of the will of the um the Russian army in 1917 leading to the Treaty of Brusque and you could posit I don't think it's likely at the moment that with 1,00 casualties a day from by the on the Russian side with very marginal gains you know you could get to a point when the Russian military walk off the battlefield I don't think we're going to see that yet uh the second one is of course is the centrality of um Crimea to the um the myth of U you know Russian imperialism if that becomes untenable then the Elites in Russia could say enough is enough Putin and his cromes need to be overthrown and the final one is that the population of Russia has had enough and um you know rise up and and sort of Dethrone him now you probably to do that in a dictatorship is very very difficult but historically you only need three .5% of 9:00 the population to take to the streets and U show their massive descent um to bring about some meaningful change as we saw for example in the Revolutions in 18 uh 1989 which deposed chesco and some of those other Eastern block countries neither of those I think is tenable in the next sort of three months though China's playing very careful carefully and I've also uh I really really believe that China is playing a waiting game because Russia is weakening itself with this war it's suicidal economically they're taking advantage but they're not going too far they keep making friendly talks with Europe and and America because that's where their customers are and so I think China is playing a waiting game hoping that Russia loses the war Andor is defeated and then it's very possible they can get Manchuria back which is something that they have long since talked about two years ago was swiped from China by AAR Diane Francis, Author and Journalist 10:02 and they want manua back which includes Vlad voso by the way and we talked about that didn't we Diane last time that we spoke um how would you judge Uh current relations between China and Russia because they did not send us and you wrote about this as well a significant delegation to the St Petersburg International Forum Russia's Davos which actually coincided with D-Day commemorations and Putin was saying Russia was fostering an alternative uh to the American dominated Global Financial order but what did the attendant say about his influence and that alternative well I think that you know we're seeing the Incredible Shrinking Russian image here uh you know between that that showcase uh conference he hels holds every year and the poor attendance by global South Nations also including India and others and the fact that you know he's making a big uh deal about visiting a pariah in North Korea uh indicates and and the fact that he 11:03 he'll be arrested he he couldn't go to the brics conference he couldn't go to the G20 because he faces arrest as a war criminal I mean it's the Incredible Shrinking Putin and his Empire that I hope we're seeing and that seems to be obvious and he makes a big Fanfare in lots of Pomp and Circumstance and lots of propaganda and rhetoric but the fact remains that that country is going to go out of business because um you know he's wanted by the ICC but he he's able to travel to Vietnam and that is one of the one of the complaints I think perhaps unset about him making these kind of trips the moment it kind of normalizes him as a leader or or that is that what he's attempting to do at least I think exactly that I think that's what I am a leader I have I have state dinners thrown for me there's popping circumstances I get to review their troops I'm a big deal that that's what it is and he's got to keep that 12:02 going so the G7 Summit agreed to release $50 billion worth of profits on Frozen Russian assets by way of a loan to Ukraine and the EU has now agreed a 14th sanctions package against Russia to further deny Russia access to key Technologies strip it of further energy revenues tackle its shadow Fleet and Shadow banking Network how much is that going to hurt Putin and his inner circle I think that hurts uh the news is tightening there's no question diplomatically economically and and militarily the the weapons are flowing the ukrainians are doing better the losses apparently are staggering in Russia not that he gives a damn uh but the point is that the news Titans I think the assets is very important it's a very important first step and that of course uh is going to Rattle his inner circle because it was threatened but they didn't believe they do it and they've kind of done it but not seizing the ass they haven't 13:03 confiscated the assets and they haven't done that because they don't want to start uh you know creating a precedent where the world doesn't like Americans and they seize American Assets in their inside their country so that was the reason for that but this is a blow and I would like to see the next blow I would really like to see his oligarchy go gone after I would like to see them harassed and denied visas and stripped of citizenships and you know just generally repelled around the world uh have their properties seized have to fight for them in court uh I think that that would they don't have power but I think that that could help uh rattle the regime in in in Russia a little bit so D you write prolifically about geopolitics I'm just wondering from your point of view at the moment what is is the thing that is kind of like preoccupying your attention the most what is the thing that that 14:04 concerns you the most Putin I think Putin is a Scourge I think Putin is the new Hitler I think Putin is uh is lives and breathes and sleeps dreaming up ways to light fires all over the world to upset and kill people um and you know he he really has to be removed somehow uh from his job because I think he's a oneoff and I think that uh there isn't another one in the wings or I hope and so I think Putin is the biggest biggest challenge and then of course there are other challenges uh such as uh you know climate and economic reform and poverty but uh right now this one gets fixed or the world is in for more and more trouble let's turn now now to to your latest piece in your substack series and it's looking at something not really reported in the western media a 15:04 Ukrainian Special Forces attack on Russian mercenaries in the goolan Heights in Southwestern Syria what happened and why were they targeted they were targeted because the ukrainians have been monitoring the Russians wherever they are and they've around the world the Vagner mercenaries as well as Russian Special Forces and they had noted that increasing numbers and this is going back for a while increasing numbers of recruits were being trained recruits from the Middle East Africa wherever were being trained in Syria by Russians Uh Russian mercenaries and Russians and they were given Russian passports and they were shipped up to Ukraine to fight against ukrainians in the war and so they were concerned about this and so they decided to uh dismantle the training operations and they and they and they pretty much did uh and this was uh this was a very important and necessary thing to do but 16:04 what it opened up my eyes to and should to the rest of the world is that Russia is using Syria which is a failed State I mean was absolutely ruined in the Civil War that began in 2011 but it occupies a big part of the country has military bases there we don't know how many thousands of soldiers and they're they're exporting all kinds of terrorism and problems and the indication was that the Ukrainian had ukrainians had had seen that uh mercenaries in Syria were training uh in ooc before October 7th to attack Israel told Israel Israel did not heed the warning and the rest is history and so they were doing this to attack a source of of training and and terrorism coming out of Syria uh by by Russia and they just wanted to interdict and seems that 17:00 this attack by Ukrainian Special Forces was was carried out without any complaint from Bashar al-assad the Syrian president I I don't know I don't read his press I don't even think he has press uh look it's a failed State essentially in return for getting help from Moscow to fight the Democratic forces in Syria in their Civil War he seeded Russia probably I don't know a third or half the land it's just it's a no man's land that Russia occupies and it uses as a staging ground it also uh is is now getting into uh other other aspects it's now moving uh armaments to Libya this is its next attempt to move closer and circle Europe frankly and they hope to establish a military a naval base in in Libya where there's a dictator who's kind of out of control and and you know that's got a lot of people and should get a lot of people in NATO concerned because they could they Operator Starsky, Co-Founder The Propaganda Study Institute and Ukrainian Veteran 18:04 could attack Europe easily from Libya judging from the uh har offensive that uh we can say it collapsed um Putin realizes that first of all he needs more support uh that's why um he went to the North Korea and first of all it was sign of desperation in in my personal opinion uh another thing is apparently he will uh stick to his promise to um arm the regimes that are hostile to the Western World and this is what we see and there is speculation that there may be some kind of formal security agreement to come out of this meeting between Putin and kimming in in North Korea how worried are you about a formalizing of the relationship between North Korea and Russia um either concerns me in terms of 19:01 um I would say more global scale because um it's a known fact that uh North Korea was bringing weapons to Russia they were delivering uh millions of artillery shells also ballistic missiles that were used which was confirmed by the the security service of Ukraine uh but on a larger scale of course um because they were talking about um exchanging their uh military Technologies uh and um Intel data and things like that I think uh this escalates the threat not as much for Ukraine as for South Korea and our Western friends yeah do you think the summit was a success in the end uh it was uh a big success um it was only a first successful step because there will be new meetings new agreements with our partners I really hope that the number 20:04 will grow and uh what was um very very important on this very Summit is the resolution adopted to uh ensure the nuclear security ensure the freedom of navigation and um uh broader access to Food Supplies because Russia is blocking Ukrainian grain and uh it hopefully will will be delivered to the countries that uh need this grain um and uh the countries that refused to sign this agreement um I think it basically damages their own International reputation because there was nothing related to uh I don't know military actions uh military operations it was literally um Summit dedicated to uh resolving humanitarian issues uh so basically countries of 21:03 so-called bricks they refus to sign this resolution um and uh I believe that it shows uh to a lot of people what bricks is really about uh because it's obviously not about uh improving quality of life right uh in those countries it's about uh political Terror uh conducted by totalitarian regimes like Russia let's come on to the situation on the front line in Ukraine at the moment what is your general assessment of it and crucially do you think the Russian offensive in the Northeast has has stalled now uh yes there are evidence confirming this but uh today um our man from the ground reported that Russian started five more uh assaults or five more uh offenses um in the area of tet 22:00 they had tactical success uh also they escalate they activiz uh activate their efforts uh towards kator chivar uh in those areas I believe that we will see most of the action uh but again uh according to our guys uh they have you know this impression that uh Russians B everything on the uh upcoming two three months and they formed several uh offensive groups and tried to use them to gain success in dones region uh so apparently we will see a lot a lot of action in those areas it's chivar it's tet VCH not so much because um har offensive stall it it collapsed basically it's very very hard to take control over major city which Russia uh failed during um these two years um 23:05 just just to remind our viewers there are 22 major cities in Ukraine under Ukrainian control and it was like that since 2014 um and uh since 2014 despite all their efforts Russians didn't uh managed to take control over any of the major cities uh hon was taken initially but they lost it and currently they don't control any of those cities that were under Ukrainian control I'm talking about major cities Regional uh centers uh that were under Ukrainian control in 2014 it's really interesting you mention how you know that the next two or three months you think is going to be crucial and that's potentially when Russia is going to launch a fresh offensive I suppose that begs the question whether the full effect of the the US military aid will have been delivered in time to help defend against that offensive and 24:04 indeed to launch potential counterattacks and Strikes inside Russian territory how how do you how do you assess that at the moment operator stari in terms of the delivery of the us8 uh I estimate that uh most of the promised Munitions will be delivered very very soon uh in the upcoming months and of course Russians also anticipate arrival of F-16 jet fighters uh so they realize that this situation is very very dangerous and uh again they will concentrate majority of their efforts um around dones oblast I I believe that we will see a lot of campat there very very soon in recent days Ukraine is struck Russian oil depos in rostov oblast and also Kadar cry using domestically produced Neptune missiles now obviously those sites are within the range of us provided attacks but Ukraine isn't allowed to use the attacks in those territories because of the restrictions 25:05 that that the US has has has placed on where Ukraine can use its weapons obviously they have moved on that issue and they have now allowed Ukraine to use American supplied weapons to hit targets inside Russia but still with those limitations how frustrating are those limitations still and do you have any optimism that America at some point will make a further concession and allow Ukraine to use us supplied weapons in in more parts of Russia the frustration in is present to some extent of course because uh even considering that uh we are allowed to use Western Munitions to strike Russian military Targets on the Russian territory but again we're talking about the uh Clos rear so to say uh it's approximately 40 50 kilometers uh deep into the Russian territory um 26:02 unfortunately we uh require much um Munitions with much longer range like aams to strike uh important targets plus we have full inel on those targets at this point uh but unfortunately it's impossible that's why we uh keep using Ukrainian produced drones we keep using Ukrainian produced missiles as well as for Neptune this missile has been modified uh again just to remind our viewers Uh Russian Flagship mosa uh two years ago was destroyed using just two of those missiles um we know that they are being multipied uh we're talking about increased range increased um Warhead um but until we are given the green light to strike Russian uh uh strategic objects deep in their rear in their operator rear um we will have to 27:06 deal with u uh increased amount of Russian Invaders here on the ground and uh this is very dangerous because um we cannot use those missiles to eliminate Russian Personnel they're not supposed to be used like that um we are talking about uh destroying Russian uh ammunition uh storages and fuel storages uh currently we don't have enough potential to do that uh effectively uh but uh I hope that uh things will change because again as we can see the support for Ukraine is only growing uh more and more countries agreed to uh support Ukraine in our uh fight against the Russian aggression um so I have hope that this will change as 28:02 well there there's no other way why do you think Vladimir Putin has chosen this moment to visit North Korea I think there's an element of desperation in it he's come to depend upon North Korea um for the supply of weapons for artillery shells for ballistic missiles some 11,000 containers worth of weapons according to the Americans um he's in desperate need of these armaments North Korea is perhaps the only country in the world in a position to be able to supply them because it has such an enormous stockpile of its own not all of it in the best of shape uh and it's also a pariah State it's a state which has been shunned by the world for for decades it's a state which starved to death millions of its own people and is possibly the most repressive place on the planet so it's in dire need of the the attention and Putin is desperate enough to to supply that attention and Ian Williams, Author and Journalist 29:00 Kim Jong-un did visit Vlad osto last September but this is the first time Putin has gone to North Korea itself since 2000 so the fact that it's Putin going to Kim does that speak to Putin's desperation it does I mean we're seeing a big reception for him the flags the pictures on the streets I mean the North Koreans are making a big thing of it uh when Kim jongan went to the Far East to the Russian Far East last year Putin took him to a space for facility uh because Kim is desperate for technology to improve uh the the the launching of satellites as as he would describe it but of course that same technology can be used on ballistic longrange ballistic missiles uh which he would dearly like to develop uh to carry nuclear warheads so there's a lot at stake that he he wants Russian technology he wants more advanced Russian weapons he wants the international recognition that a visit by Putin would Supply but you know Putin's running risks because 30:03 here he is writing an article for a uh North Korean newspaper which sounds like a big deal but there aren't many North Korean newspapers um effectively identifying his struggle against the West with that of North Korea you know and and that that is a bit of a risk because you're associating yourself with you know there are a few despots um who are bigger than than the North Koreans and to associate so closely with them um runs other sorts of risks as well talking of the weapons that North Korea has been supplying Russia how are they being used on the front line in Ukraine it's mainly artillery shells because a lot of the technology which uh the North Koreans have is not terribly Advanced but there's a lot of it uh and there's there's a big shortage of artillery shells um in the battlefield on the battlefield in Ukraine uh there's been some doubt about how effective because they've been in storage they're not 31:03 they've not been looked after as well as perhaps other countries would North Korea has a lot of stuff but it's not always the first generation stuff um of course this gives them the ability to test a lot of that in in in a battle situation the Russians are Des are in desperate need of artillery shells as indeed of the ukrainians um and here's North Korea being one of the few places on on the planet with a sufficient Surplus to keep the Russian guns ticking over and of course we seem to be also if we couldn't do American briefings uh short range ballistic missiles have also been supplied and this has been confirmed by information that has come from the battlefield from ukrainians who've identified the North Korean markings on these Munitions how effective are the Munitions as well that North Korea provides that is debatable um we have seen Ukrainian forces say they're not very accurate um a lot of them don't go off the fuses are Duff um 32:04 it's not the most effective Weaponry but I don't think the Russians particularly care they'll take it they'll take it they need it a and accuracy is perhaps not something that they've been particularly bothered with the the purpose of a lot of these bombardments is to create Terror it's to lob these in into cities they're not really into pinpoint accuracy the purpose is different there so you know if you're if you're getting getting these shells in the quantity that the North Koreans appear to be supplying then okay a proportion of them don't work um a proportion of them go arai but in the bigger scheme of things that doesn't really matter to the Russian war machine which has never really been into pinpoint accuracy and has never really been avoiding about avoiding civilian casualties well that's a good point I mean Russia throughout seems to have been pursuing the strategy of just throwing everything it can at the front line including men you look at the casualty rate it's enormously high 33:01 but doesn't particularly seem to deter Vladimir Putin he'll pursue the meek grinder strategy if necessary yeah I mean I I think there are a few other places on the planet or a few other countries in the planet which would accept that the extent of the attrition that we've seen uh in in in the Russian army and I think this very much fits in with the Russian approach to Warfare you know the the accuracy of these things at the end of the day doesn't really matter it's the quantity of them it's the fact it can fire them um the fact that people get hurt the fact that that they they are not very accurate is is neither here nor there obviously Russia and North Korea both part of this sort of Alliance of authoritarian States in China Russia Iran and North Korea how significant is that Alliance and what are the Dynamics inside it it's fascinating because if you think back it's not been that long that we've been talking about out an alliance of autocrats and when the the 34:01 term was first used there was a lot of push back it was well no then they're not really it's not like NATO say for instance where you've got a defensive Alliance held together by shared Democratic Values um which arguably is more solid when you've got a bunch of autocrats trying to work together um out of self it's not as stable as a defensive Alliance built upon shared values in my opinion um but what you do have is a marriage of convenience what you do have is is particularly with Iran North Korea China and Russia is a series of states in whose interest it is to work together at the moment because of their anti-western um sentiment because of their view of the world because of their immediate self-interest so it may be a marriage of convenience but that makes it no less dangerous for it and of course Russia Iran North Korea all very consequential but fundamentally China is the dominant player it was 35:05 interesting I was speaking yesterday on front line to the journalist Michael bkv and he was saying that in his view Xi Jinping could could end the war in Ukraine with one fle to Vladimir Putin do you think he has that influence yes without without a doubt I don't think that the war in Ukraine would be sustainable without Chinese support um China is effectively underwriting the war um through its massively increased trade with Russia whether that's buying Russian oil gas um supplying Machine Tools chips uh drones Jewel use items um items which can help rebuild and sustain Russia's industrial military industrial base um but China has the upper hand uh only a week or two ago uh discussions over a new gas pipeline which would bring Russian gas from its European fields to China stalled over price 36:01 because the Chinese wanted it at a very cheap price which the Russians weren't prepared to move to yet they may well do because they really have no choice because that gas can't go to Europe anymore so China is very much the the dominant partner and the dominant um element of this this Alliance of of of autocrats and there's no doubt in my view that the war in Ukraine could not be sustainable by Russia uh with without the support it's getting direct and indirect from China Putin going to pongyang does that speak to the fact that Vladimir Putin is now an international Pari in the same way that Kim Jong Un is most definitely I mean and I think this is almost but he said it in his own words that here is a country a dictator who is the ultimate Pariah who's been treated um a as a despot uh over over previous over the last 37:01 decades and here is Putin going there and closely identifying himself and his struggle with the West with that of North Korea with that of pongyang and I think that that is going to be something which could potentially back fire on him especially among those who've perhaps bitten the lip and thinking well we don't really want to get involved in this we we don't really want to um overtly oppose what Russia is doing in Ukraine I think a lot of countries will be genuinely horrified at the thought of this close tightening alliance between between Russia and North Korea especially if we see emerging from this um some sort of beefed up statement of a for a more formal relationship a more formal um type of exchange of of um of trade or technology perhaps even military technology to North Korea China is in the background propping up Russia's War Mach machine uh pretty Michael Bociurkiw, Canadian Journalist 38:06 sophisticated drone technology chips things like that so um you know they they don't they don't exactly have their their hands clean here uh but I do like to think that um they're it's in their best interest to have a more stable World more stable economy and see that this war ends and what more point a lot of people forget that before the war started uh Mr zalinski called referred to China as one of Ukraine's biggest economic Partners so they have interest too minerals energy that sort of thing what do you think it would take to get Beijing to the point where they would actually when Xi Jinping would make that call to Vladimir Putin and say look now is the time to withdraw from Ukraine now is the time to end this war because some might say actually a destabilized West Europe at war is actually in China's strategic interest oh you're absolutely right I mean look at at the shenanigans 39:02 they're up to in the South China Sea or what the Filipinos called the West Philippines Sea but uh I'll tell you what the red line is going to be and God forbid God forbid that we reach that point and that is when uh Mr Putin's forces either uh Tinker with the Zaria nuclear power plant which they occupy and there's a release of nuclear there or if Putin uh uses tactical nuclear weapons or other nuclear weapons that will be the red line I believe and China will demand an end to it because they've made that pretty clear um I know there's a lot of ifs in all of this uh we also have to remember that um at the Olympic Games in in China uh Putin was reportedly asked by Shi Jinping whether he's going to evade invade Ukraine and he said no he actually lied to him so uh there's no given here but uh all of us I'm sure agree that um Russia 40:01 should not be allowed to cross a certain line and that's when China will really put its fot down is Russia slowly becoming more isolated internationally I mean you know we talked about those countries that abstained in the Brick Nations China not attending there is a lot of speculation that Vladimir Putin may actually visit pongyang this week and make his first visit to North Korea in in more than 20 years obviously that's an increasingly significant Alliance is Putin building more alliances or is he becoming more isolated globally yeah and by the way that um North Korea visit that'll be the first leader to come to pong P yangang since Co so it's a big thing on both sides you know I I was recently in Thailand and um my head was just shaking all the time because I could not believe the amount of Russian tourists and Russian expats actually living there and um they're already uh so entrenched they're already said to be controlling some key sectors of the economy in 41:01 places like puket but you go for example to puket airport and it looks like a regional Russian airport uh flights to vlasto Moscow and elsewhere and I counted I stood there for a while and I counted two or three Boeing aircraft under Russian flags and an Airbus so I thought that both manufactured had manufactured had stopped supplying spare parts to Russia uh now I know they're probably trading behind the the door through countries like gabal and UAE and Thailand but um it it goes to show you how much uh they've been able to avert these sanctions to work around them but also it goes to show you that when it comes to countries like Thailand like turkey like the UAE like the Maldives they rely very very much on um Russian trade and Russian investment and Russian tourism and um that has helped Mr Putin and uh you know bust these sanctions as 42:00 has as have countries which have provided ships that allow him for example to ship um illegal oil and stolen Ukrainian grain so yeah it's it's sanctions are a tough thing isolating a country as big as Russia is a very tough thing as well especially if main players don't want to take part on the topic of sanctions Michael last week the G7 agreed to use frozen Russian assets to raise $50 billion for Ukraine meanwhile the US and Ukraine have also agreed a 10-year bilateral security agreement what do you make of those and do either of them go far enough well um the one regarding the Frozen Russian assets primarily in Europe and using the interest from that to back alone to Ukraine that to me represents a big deal that is a break in the ice of Western leaders fear to actually use those uh Russian assets so that's a real big positive um the ukrainians would like them to go further and use all I believe it's 300 billion but uh I think um we'll see a drip drip drip approach on that one and also 43:05 you'll you'll remember it was referred to as a loan and I think that was used to not set off alarm bells and places like the Euros European Central Bank which is absolutely obsessed with uh protect protecting the the Integrity of the euro in terms of the uh security PCT with the United States that was the biggest of many that had been concluded recently but we have to remember that this is an executive agreement so hence it's prone to cancellation by an incoming uh American president such as a Mr Trump um but it does send out a huge uh signal to Russia that what is happening between those agreements between the use of the Frozen Russian assets and and other um other developments is that these Western leaders many of whom are Advanced age and many of whom are facing elections and probably will not be reelected but I think what they're doing is trying to 44:03 kind of fireproof uh the Ukraine Aid so that it's more predictable it's more substantial and the other thing they're wisely doing is um making sure that it looks like at Ukraine is not coming from the pockets of taxpayers rather it's coming from for example seized Russian assets so that's a really uh positive development let's see also whether NATO comes together and also gets I think it's about 30 or 40 billion a year in military aid to Ukraine uh that would be a big game changer as well and that point about public support is is a really good one because whilst you know among our audience here at front line with times radio and in the UK there's a huge amount of solidarity with Ukraine as we've seen from the recent election results in for the European Parliament the rise of populist right-wing parties many of whom are skeptical at best some outright opposed to further military aid for Ukraine managing public opinion in 45:03 Europe and America is incredibly important yeah and a huge thing and um also immigration as you know migration is a factor and um you know if the War uh gets worse for example places like here in Odessa you're going to see another wave of Ukrainian Asylum Seekers headed for Europe how is that going to go over so I I like to think that among these new comers who lean a little bit more to the right that there is a sense of pragmatism that Europe uh even without Ukraine as part of the EU is much much more integrated much much more prone to um you know uh destabilization um something that can happen on the other side of the continent can affect can can affect the whole continent actually at the end of the day so you know and Georgia Maloney um she's not exactly regarded as a Centrist but um I think you know hats off to her she has uh LED uh the discussions in a positive way to supporting Ukraine to making sure 46:06 that there's no further escalation and um I actually think after her performance if you want to cut that at the G7 that she's going to play uh a more leading role in Europe and that's that's a plus I think for everybody so you know we're we're in we're in pretty good hands but again if these leaders who again many of them who probably on their way out um Can fireproof that Aid to Ukraine so it's not as prone to these uh unpredictable election cycles that would be fantastic the military aid clearly is incredibly important but it was interesting the financial times reported yesterday that Russia has now overtaken the us as Europe's main gas supplier and so a cynic might say you know for all the increasingly hawkish retoric Europe essentially still hasn't come to terms with the fact that it needs to do more and it maybe needs to take on some economic pain if it's going to stop Russia's illegal Invasion yeah well look 47:03 um I I think things are moving in the right direction when it comes to lessening energy dependence on uh on Russia especially when it comes to to oil uh Germany as far as I understand is not dependent at all anymore and on on these pipelines for example and then also the um process of building LNG terminals on Europe's um uh West coasts to bring in more gas from the US has not gone as fast as as one would hope so um you know and just um day before yesterday the movan foreign minister was here in Essa spoke at the Black Sea security forum and uh the story of mova and how it's transformed itself and um totally changed its energy dependence looking more Westward is a big big thing it it can happen a lot quicker than anyone thought and um if anyone has any doubt on how this has affected Kremlin Finance as well H have a look at some of these statistics because they're having 48:02 to shop now for clients for their oil um in you know countries that can't afford to pay the full price of the pump if we can put it that way so their their income has uh gone way down and um also we have to remember that the Russians have been forced also to uh switch their economy to a very wartime economy just to keep the War Machine So Many Factors there um the the Russian economy is a lot more vulnerable than before the war before the full scale Invasion and then look here in Odessa which feeds about 400 million people worldwide um I was just at the Port yesterday for the first time since the war started and uh you know that the throughput of of grain and sunflower oil is almost a prear levels now uh they're about to start container shipping again and this has been done by a country virtually with no Navy so that's uh 49:03 that's pretty darn impressive in term and also destroying about 40 30 to 40% of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea uh pushing Russian ships back that has shown that Ukraine takes its role seriously as one of the main providers of food to the world it um shows that uh given the chance they can inflict quite major damage on the Russians so there are some pieces of good news here too that we're seeing happen thank you for watching Frontline for times radio for more on Global Security and the war in Ukraine you can listen to times radio take out a digital subscription to the times and click subscribe on our YouTube channel

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