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RUSSIA AND CHINA THE ECONOMIC STRESS OF RUSSIA Joe Blogs: RUSSIA - Will Putin be Arrested Tomorrow in Mongolia? PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUKASgnEYOg Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
RUSSIA - Putin to be Arrested Tomorrow? Joe Blogs Sep 2, 2024 385K subscribers ... 227,577 views ✪ Members first on September 2, 2024 #russia #ruble #russianeconomy Please Support The Channel: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/JoeBlogs / joeblogsyt YouTube Membership - / @joeblogs In this video I discuss the threat of arrest facing President Putin and the latest trade figures released by China which reveal that trade with Russia fell by 7.4% in July. The Russian Economy is now totally dependent upon the Chinese Economy, as it is selling around 1/3 of all of its exports to China, and I discuss the fact that any problems in the Chinese Economy are likely to be magnified in Russia. For specific details please check out the CHAPTER list below. Chapters: 0:00 Intro 2:04 ARREST WARRANT 5:13 RUSSIAN TRADE 9:54 CHINESE ECONOMY 13:06 INFLATION 16:07 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION #russia #ruble #russianeconomy #gdp #rouble #ukraine #uk #pricecap #GLOBALFINANCIALCRISIS #RUBLE #SWIFT #RECESSION #CHINA #USA #NATO #WW3 #WORLDWAR3 Transcript Intro 0:03 hi welcome back to Joe blogs in today's episode I want to talk to you about what's happening in the Russian economy and specifically to talk about two very worrying Trends from Russia's point of view with regards to the amount of trade that it's doing with China now if you follow the channel you'll be fully aware that since Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the significant amount of sanctions that have been applied against Russia by the West China is now Russia's single most import trading partner Russia is entirely dependent on China for a huge amount of its exports and also for a lot of its Imports and in July it's been reported that China cut back on its imports from Russia by more than 7% so we'll go through the details of that in a moment but in addition to that there are also now Rising problems with regards to actual payments needing to be made either from Russia to China or from China to Russia as a result of the fact 1:02 that the West has now significantly increased the sanctions against Russia and started to apply secondary sanctions on any institution or company that's found to be dealing with any Russian sanction business so Chinese Banks and financial institutions are now very concerned about this and they're taking a lot of time to go through the details of all of the Russian companies that are involved and if they find anybody that s stions they're refusing to make those payments and this is now causing major cash flow problems within Russia and Russian companies are having to borrow large amounts of Chinese Yuan from the Russian government and it's causing a major liquidity crisis and at the end of today's video I'll talk about what I think the overall impact of all of this is going to be on the Russian economy but before we get started I wanted to talk about something I think that's really quite interesting the International arrest warrant that's been 2:00 issued against President Putin for war ARREST WARRANT crimes on the 17th of March 2023 the international criminal court issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin accusing him of the war crime of illegally deporting hundreds of children from Ukraine in its first warrant for Ukraine the ICC called for Putin's arrest on suspicion of unlawful deportation of children and unlawful transfer of people from the territory of Ukraine to the Russian Federation since February 24th 2022 ICC Chief prosecutor Kim Khan said in a statement hundreds of Ukrainian children have been taken from orphanages and children's homes to Russia many of these children we allege have since been given up for adoption in the Russian Federation the alleged acts demonstrate an intention to permanently remove these children from their own country at the time of these deportations the Ukrainian children were protected persons under the Fourth Geneva Convention this boldly legal move 3:00 obligates the courts 123 member states to arrest Putin and transfer him to the hag for trial if he sets foot on their territory now the issuance of that arrest warrant was something that I reported on around 18 months ago and since that time nothing has happened President Putin hasn't been arrested and so everybody appears to be ignoring it however he has been very careful not to go to any of the countries that have joined in the Rome treaty that would therefore be obligated to arrest him and send him to the hag however on September the 3D he is due to visit Mongolia which is one of the countries that signed to that treaty and as a result of that Ukraine has now asked that Mongolia arrests President Putin as soon as he lands in the country the Ukrainian foreign Ministry recently posted a message on telegram stating we call on the Mongolian authorities to comply with the mandatory International arrest warrant and transfer Putin to the inter ational Criminal Court in the ha in 4:02 response to the question as to whether or not Moscow is concerned that Mongolia is a member of the ICC and therefore could arrest President Putin Kremlin spokesperson Dimitri pesov said no no worries about this we have a great dialogue with our friends from Mongolia now just in case you're wondering where Mongolia is located it's a country that borders onto Russia and actually sits between Russia and China so I think given the close proximity of Mongolia to Russia and also the fact that this is a pre-prepared meeting this is something that's been planned in advance it's extremely unlikely that Mongolia are going to arrest President Putin and hand him over to the hag I'd be very surprised if they try to do that but I thought I'd raise it because Ukraine are obviously demanding that Mongolia do that as part of being a member of the Rome treaty but I think Mongolia will turn a blind eye to it but I thought you'd be interested in the story and the 5:00 fact that this arrest warrant has been sitting around for around 18 months really tells us that it doesn't have any teeth and it's very unlikely that President Putin is going to be arrested at any time in the near RUSSIAN TRADE br> future China's crude oil imports from Top supplier Russia fell in July by 7.4% compared with 2023 Russian oil arrivals including via pipelines and shipments totaled 7.46 million metric tons in July or 1.76 million barrels per day according to data from the general administration of customs and that figure of 1.76 million barrels per day compared with 2.05 million in June and 1.9 million in July 23 and this table shows the origin of all of China's oil imports in July and as you can see Russia remained as the largest supplier of oil to China in July providing 7.46 million metric tons but interestingly that did represent a fall 6:02 of 7.4% China's second largest supplier is Saudi Arabia who supplied 6.41 million tons of oil which was up 13.45% against the figure for June so it's interesting that the amount being soured from Saudi Arabia increased significantly at the same time as the amount being sourced from Russia fell China also cut back on its supplies in the month from Iraq and the United Arab Emirates who the third and fourth Lodge suppliers but increase their supplies from Brazil who come in at number five on this list the supplies from Oman were down by 4.3% but really interestingly the amount of oil sourced from Malaysia increased by almost 61% in the month to 6.21 million tons so that's almost the same as Saudi Arabia and puts Malaysia as the third largest supplier in July the amount of oil Source from Angola and Kuwait was also cut back but interestingly the was a 53% increase in 7:02 oil sourced from the USA now I think what's interesting about that table is that it shows that China is sourcing its oil from all around the world it's got lots of different suppliers so it doesn't have a major dependency on Russia it has been buying the most oil from Russia because Russia has been offering it the best deal and China is very pragmatic on that front if Russia is going to offer it a special Arrangement then it will buy large quantities but but I think the really interesting part of this relationship is that Russia is completely dependent upon China China could walk away from its relationship with Russia and carry on as normal it would be able to Source additional oil from some of the other nations to make up for the 2 million barrels per day that it's been buying from Russia however from Russia's point of view the oil exports represent around 30% of all of its oil it's exporting somewhere between 6 and A2 and 7 million barrels per day and over the past 6 8:02 months or so it's been selling over 2 million barrels per day of that directly into China and the problem that Russia is facing is that if China decided that it didn't want to carry on trading with Russia Russia has very limited options in terms of finding alternative buyers as a result of the sanctions that have been applied against Russia so we're starting to see some movement in July we saw a major cut back in the amount being purchased from Russia at the same time as there were some significant increases with countries such as Malaysia and the USA so China is still buying large amounts of oil it could increase the purchases from Russia if it wanted to by chopping and changing where it sourcing its oil from but because of the secondary sanctions that are now being applied against a lot of the Chinese companies they're running the risk of being hit with sanctions themselves if they're found to be dealing with Russian counterparts who are on on the sanctioned list China is being more 9:02 cautious that means that it's now cutting back on its purchases and this is really bad news from Russia's point of view because if they lose those sales they're going to have to cut back on production and we've talked about this in many videos before if Russia has to stem the flow of its oil then that could be catastrophic for the future flow of that oil and one of the other issues that the relationship between Russia and China highlights is that Russia is now dependent on the success of the Chinese economy if the Chinese economy goes into a period of slowdown or even goes into recession then that would have a devastating impact on Russia because China would then reduce all of its purchases reduce all of its Imports and so it would cut back on the amount of oil that it's buying from Russia and so a recession in China would definitely cause a major problem for CHINESE ECONOMY Russia this chart shows the quarterly movement in GDP in China over the the past 3 years and the reason I wanted to 10:01 show this is really to highlight the fact that there are concerns right now as to what's happening in the Chinese economy and if the Chinese economy does start to slow down it's going to have really serious implications from Russia's point of view because Russia is entirely dependent upon China so we start off by having a look at what happened in 2022 in the first quarter GDP increased by 4.8% however in the second quarter there was only an increase of 0.4% and from China's point of view that was absolutely disastrous because this is an economy which is targeting 5% annual increases in GDP so it therefore can't afford to have quarters where GDP growth is less than 1% now there was a bounce back in the third quarter of 2022 but it was only to 3.9% and in the fourth quarter GDP growth was 2.9% and the amalgamation of all of those different growth rates 11:00 meant that in 2022 China only achieved GDP growth of 3% and one of the main reasons for that was that China was still employing its Zero Tolerance policy with regards to covid so it was still applying lockdowns to whole cities we had tens of millions of people being put into a lockdown situation if one or two cases of covid were identified however the Chinese authorities decided at the end of 2022 that that was was no longer needed and in 2023 the Chinese economy did bounce back achieving GDP growth of 4.5% in the first quarter of 23 6.3% in the second 4.9 in the 3D and 5.2 in the fourth all of which resulted in an annual growth rate of 5.2% which was above the target of 5% if we now look at what's happened in 2024 in the first quarter GDP growth was 5.3% so above the target level however in the second second quarter things have slowed 12:01 down significantly and quarterly growth was only 4.7% which is below the year-end Target of 5% and there are now Rising concerns that China could miss its year- end Target now if you're a long-term follower of the channel you'll know that I've posted lots of videos on China we've talked about the economy and all the problems that it's having at length but there are serious issues that are starting to come to the surface now with regards to the amount of debt that's sitting in the eony not just in property development companies like everand which was the poster child of the Chinese problems but also at local government level and right across the board and we're starting to potentially see a major slowdown in the second half of 2024 and if that happens it could have disastrous consequences for Russia because they could lose one of their biggest buyers in addition to the secondary sanctions that are now being applied to all of the Chinese businesses and one of the things I think that is 13:00 concerning from Russia's point of view is what's going on with inflation in INFLATION China this chart shows the movement in the official rate of inflation in China over the past 12 months and the scale on the right hand side of this chart goes from 1% positive at the top to 1% negative at the bottom so we've got a very narrow scale here and what you can see is that over the last 12 months there have been five months when prices have actually fallen so this isn't a fall in the rate of inflation we are talking about prices year onye actually being lower and situations like that are referred to as deflation and as you can see China has been struggling with deflation over the past 12 months and in the months when it has achieved a positive increase in prices those increases have been very small less than 1% and the reason that this is important is that it means that it's difficult at the moment in China to pass on cost 14:00 increases because prices are not Rising very much at all so if you're a company that's buying in things then you want to make sure that you keep the price of all of those purchases as low as possible otherwise it's going to eat into your profit margins and this chart shows the movement in producer prices also known as Factory gate prices so the price of products as they're leaving companies in China over the past 12 months and the scale on the right hand side of this chart starts at the top at 0% and goes down to- 4.7% and what this chart shows is that in every single one of the past 12 months producer prices have been in negative territory so Factory gate prices have fallen year on year and what that means is that companies in China are constantly having to cut their costs and if they're not cutting their costs then it's eating into their profit margins and this is putting immense amounts of pressure onto all of those 15:00 companies because you can't just carry on making losses Forever at some point you will run out of cash you become insolvent and therefore the company has to be wound up or you're just declared bankrupt and the reason I'm showing you this chart is that it really indicates the problems that are going on in China right now and it means that a lot of companies are cutting back on their purchases and so they're having to find cheaper alternatives and so the import of Russian oil could be something that gets cut by back and the reason I wanted to share those graphs with you is that they highlight the severe problems that are being experienced in China right now both consumers and companies are seeing prices falling on a weekly basis that's putting pressure on their cost basis and if that pressure continues for a long period of time it becomes unsustainable so we've got a situation which potentially could mean that China goes into a downward spiral at some point over the course of the next 3 to 6 to 12 months and if that happens it will stop 16:01 buying all of the different things that it's importing and that could have a devastating impact on SUMMARY & CONCLUSION 16:08 Russia so what's the summary and conclusion today well I wanted to post this video because the relationship between Russia and China is absolutely critical to the success of the Russian economy since Russia's invasion of Ukraine it's become more dependent on China as a result of all of the sanctions being applied by the West most of it large customers in Europe are no longer buying oil and gas and all of the Commodities that they were previously and so Russia has increase the amount that it's exporting directly to its neighbor China but the problem with that is twofold firstly China is not dependent on Russia the vast majority of its international trade is with the rest of the world Russia is relatively small in a global context it has around 144 million people out of a global population of 8 billion and as a result 17:00 of that it only represents around 2% of China's total export so that is pretty small and what we've seen in today's video is that the secondary sanctions that have now been applied against countries like India and China they've been told that if they're found to be dealing with any of the Russian companies on the sanctioned list then those institutions themselves will face the same sanctions that's caused major problems particularly with the Chinese Banks who've been facilitating payments to and from Russia over the last couple of years and what we've seen in today's video is that problems are now starting to mount for Russian businesses because firstly they can't make payments secondly they can't receive payments they're taking a very long period of time to be processed by their Chinese counterparts and thirdly they're now running short of Chinese Yuan when they do actually have to make those payments so they're having to borrow Yuan from from the Russian Central Bank the 18:00 Russian Central Bank itself is having to borrow yuan in the international markets and all of that is adding more cost and more time delays and cash flow problems for all of those Russian businesses but one of the other issues that Russia is now facing is that the Slowdown that's being experienced in China right now as a result of all of the problems that we've been talking about on the channel for the last couple of years is having a direct impact on Russia in July China reduced the of oil that it purchased from Russia by 7.4% and if the Chinese economy does continue to contract over the course of the rest of this year then it will continue to reduce those purchases and that's going to be majorly problematic from Russia's point of view because they don't have any alternative buyers but as you saw from the list that we looked at earlier China has lots of options in terms of where it can Source its oil from so China can live without Russia but Russia simply can't live without China so the overall summary of today's 19:01 video is that what's going on in China right now is really bad news from Russia's point of view the Slowdown that's being experienced potentially means that Russia will lose out on export sales because China will purchase less oil and gas over the course of the next 5 to 6 months and if that happens Russia simply won't be able to replace those lost sales because there aren't any more markets of that sort of size that it can go after that aren't already already applying sanctions against Russia but in addition to those problems Russia is also now facing problems actually making and receiving payments from China as a result of the increase in the secondary sanctions and all of this is seriously bad news for Russia and the Russian economy so hopefully you've enjoyed today's video you found it useful informative and thought-provoking if you've liked what I've said then please give me a thumbs up thank you for watching this video all the way through to the end and here's something to put a smile on your face wow good job good job good job good job Giant

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