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THE TRUMP SAGA
TIM'S TAKE ON TRUMP
The Bulwark: Trump’s Iowa Lead Crumbles; Sign of Big Trouble Nationally? | Tim's Take
Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkAsVMT0QSs
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY

Peter Burgess
Trump’s Iowa Lead Crumbles; Sign of Big Trouble Nationally? | Tim's Take

The Bulwark

Sep 15, 2024

613K subscribers

Tim Miller breaks down two key post-debate polls with promising news for Kamala Harris. A national ABC/Ipsos poll shows Harris leading Trump 52-46 among likely voters, a crucial margin given the GOP's Electoral College advantage. Meanwhile, a highly regarded Iowa poll by Ann Selzer reveals Trump’s lead shrinking from 18 points in June to just FOUR points now, signaling potential shifts nationally.

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  • 0:00
  • hey guys it's Tim Miller from the bull
  • workk we have two bows out this morning
  • and they are I think the most high
  • quality blls that we've seen since the
  • debate and uh they both offer pretty
  • good news for kamla Harris uh the first
  • is a national poll from ABC and ipsos
  • and the second is a state poll in Iowa
  • which is important not because Iowa's a
  • swing state Donald Trump is almost
  • 0:19
  • certainly going to win Iowa but because
  • 0:20
  • the pollster and seltzer is extremely
  • 0:23
  • well regarded and her Iowa polls have
  • 0:26
  • kind of been a um a canary in the coal
  • 0:28
  • mine for what you would see in other
  • 0:30
  • states in multiple possible in multiple
  • 0:33
  • past elections uh so let me uh let me
  • 0:35
  • just go through these one at a time the
  • 0:36
  • first poll from ABC iOS um with among
  • 0:39
  • likely voters uh it has kamla Harris at
  • 0:42
  • 52 and Donald Trump at 46 uh 51 46 among
  • 0:47
  • registered voters uh this is an
  • 0:49
  • important kind of Gap important number
  • 0:51
  • for her for Harris to get to 51 52 we've
  • 0:55
  • talked here about how uh the Republicans
  • 0:58
  • have an advantage in the Electoral
  • 0:59
  • College and you know in order to feel

  • 1:01
  • really good uh going into the election
  • 1:04
  • you know Harris like needs to be up by
  • 1:07
  • up over 50 um you know uh and and having
  • 1:10
  • Trump down close to 46 47 uh you know in
  • 1:13
  • order to to make up for that gap between
  • 1:16
  • the national polls and and the advantage
  • 1:19
  • that Republicans have in in the key
  • 1:21
  • swing States so um I think that you
  • 1:24
  • having that Sixpoint margin is
  • 1:26
  • encouraging we've seen some other less
  • 1:29
  • high quality polls since the debate that
  • 1:31
  • tell a pretty similar story morning
  • 1:33
  • consult had Trump at 50 or excuse me
  • 1:36
  • morning consult had Harris at 50 uh to
  • 1:39
  • uh 45 for Trump a five-point lead we've
  • 1:42
  • had a couple others with her up by four
  • 1:44
  • so this kind of 456 range is where the
  • 1:46
  • national polls seem to be kind of
  • 1:49
  • orienting themselves around in the week
  • 1:50
  • after the election and that is uh that's
  • 1:53
  • good news for for kamla Harris now we
  • 1:55
  • haven't seen any quality polls yet post
  • 1:57
  • debate out of the swing States um you

  • 2:00
  • know there have been some partisan polls
  • 2:02
  • but um I expect you know some of the big
  • 2:05
  • pollers will be will be coming out this
  • 2:07
  • week but this Iowa thing is important
  • 2:09
  • going back to
  • 2:11
  • 2016 I I I I remember where I was when
  • 2:15
  • the an szer Paul came out um on the
  • 2:18
  • weekend before the election was in the
  • 2:20
  • evening and and um then she showed a
  • 2:25
  • just a very troubling number for Hillary
  • 2:28
  • Clinton in that race and and a much
  • 2:30
  • bigger lead for Donald Trump Than People
  • 2:32
  • expected in Iowa and it was It was kind
  • 2:36
  • of the moment where political observers
  • 2:37
  • were like wait wait a minute like there
  • 2:40
  • might be this late move to uh uh to
  • 2:43
  • Trump uh that we ended up seeing in in
  • 2:46
  • 2016 in that kind of final weekend um
  • 2:49
  • where these these un these double haters
  • 2:51
  • that we've come to call them now you
  • 2:53
  • kind of broke for Trump in that in that
  • 2:55
  • last weekend you know we use uh Seltzer
  • 2:58
  • not really cuz you know we're that

  • 3:00
  • interested in who's winning Iowa's
  • electoral votes but is like a you know
  • the sort of something to Mark against
  • right like you say okay well if Trump's
  • doing this in Iowa then that means that
  • he's probably doing you know that in in
  • in comparable States so so let's walk
  • through it so he has right now in this
  • poll 47 to Harris is 43 uh she was
  • pulling RFK at six so that that creates
  • a little bit of a you know kind of
  • margin of error here but um the previous
  • poll had Trump up 18 over Biden in June
  • June 17th so an 18-point lead in Iowa
  • down to four um that that is dramatic
  • movement um needless to say uh to the
  • vice president um and you know the other
  • thing the other number to keep in mind
  • is that in
  • 2020 Trump won Iowa by about eight if
  • we're rounding it was about 53 to 45 so
  • if he's only up four now and he won by
  • eight in 2020 like that would signal a
  • shift I and potentially by about four

  • 4:01
  • points uh to Harris and it would signal
  • that shift in a state that's pretty
  • white so like demographically a state
  • that's quite similar um to you know the
  • parts of Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania
  • that she's going to need to do well in
  • um obviously Iowa was a red state it
  • doesn't have the big cities um you know
  • and the and the black voter population
  • that you have in Milwaukee Detroit
  • Philly um but but you know kind of the
  • demographic comparison of these sort of
  • Upper Midwest non-oled whites and in a
  • state that over indexes on that on Iowa
  • for Trump only to be up by four is a
  • major major red flag for him um and you
  • know I think that if you're Harris you
  • know obviously we want to see how things
  • look in the States where there's more
  • advertising there could be other you
  • know uh vicissitudes other things that
  • that make um the the swing States move a
  • little differently from Iowa but uh it
  • is the Seltzer pole is is just so much
  • better than than the quality of polls

  • 5:01
  • that we've seen in these other states
  • and she and she's been so on the nose
  • that it's worth just kind of looking at
  • that and and and getting a a sense that
  • okay if she's in the ballpark there and
  • and Harris is is within you know
  • whatever say four five six points of
  • trump um that puts her ahead of the
  • Biden trajectory from 2020 which was
  • obviously a winning trajectory so um
  • great news for kamla Harris out of Iowa
  • uh we'll continue to keep an eye on you
  • know numbers uh coming out of the seven
  • key swing States as the week goes on so
  • make sure to subscribe to the feed and
  • we'll be seeing you soon peace
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