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TRUMP -V- HARRIS JEN RUBIN CONVERSATION 18TH SEPTEMBER 2024 Politicon: Why Trump’s Poll Numbers Are Collapsing \| Simon Rosenberg & Jen Rubin PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jpsR19AsqA Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Why Trump’s Poll Numbers Are Collapsing \| Simon Rosenberg & Jen Rubin Politicon 190K subscribers Sep 18, 2024 Jen Rubin's Green Room Simon Rosenberg and Jen Rubin discuss the evolving political landscape leading up to the upcoming elections, focusing on polling patterns, candidate dynamics, and the impact of key issues such as abortion. Simon highlights the favorable position of Kamala Harris and the challenges faced by the Republican Party, particularly with candidates like JD Vance. The discussion also touches on media dynamics, the significance of patriotism, and the potential for a shift in voter sentiment as the election approaches. More Politicon videos and podcasts available on our YouTube channel: / @politicon Visit our website: http://politicon.com Transcript 0:00 hi this is Jen Rubin and this is Jen rubin's green room I don't know if I can take all this good news since the debate we've had a lot of polling and it looks pretty good for kamla Harris and a lot of the polling looks pretty good for a lot of Democrats uh in the Senate races have things moved is this an illusion is this more inaccurate polling all of you know that it's bit strange for me now to be focusing on polling since I hold it in such low esteem but it's hard not to think that something is going on when all the polls move in a significant way in the same direction after some pretty significant events like the debate like the Taylor Swift endorsement you got ask what is going on and I am never quite sure what to 1:06 believe with polling is presented but I do know who I talk to about polling and that is Simon Rosenberg who is a former Democratic operative who works closely with a fellow Tom bner and really is the most accurate and sophisticated reader and interpreter of polls he's done it himself for a living and he was one of the few people I was another one who suspected and told us that the Red Wave was going to evaporate and it did and he's one of the other people again along with me you can understand why I have him on my show who said you know this dobs thing is a bigger deal than the media is making it out to and it's going to fundamentally 2:00 change American politics well given all that I thought okay we got to get Simon back on the show and so we did so it is our wonderful luck and timing that has put him here just as we are getting a flurry of these new polls so here to talk to us about all those and more is Simon Rosenberg welcome to the show Simon it's great to be here it's always an honor to hang out with you I read all your stuff all the time so it's fun to see you in person that's so nice of you to say something seems to be happening in the race since the debate uh as one who has been consistently skeptical of polling particularly polling months out yeah even I have to recognize there seems to be a little bit of a pattern here what do you see in the state polls and in the National polls since the debate so before the debate uh Harris had a two three-point lead in the National polls 3:03 it was very consistent the data was remarkably consistent it's unusual in an election for data to all be saying the same thing the Congressional generic which is the thing that measures are you voting for the house Democrat of Republican for the house or Senate was about two to three points um the state polls you know she had a small advantage in the state in the Battleground States but it was very close and the Senate polling has been remarkably good for us they we've now this the second consecutive cycle Republicans have a bad candidate problem which I think is going to be more important as we get closer to the election we had significant and meaningful advantages in money volunteers and enthusiasm and those kinds of measures were very important to Tom Bond and I in 2022 when we sort of said we think things are going to be better than people expect so I've always believed that the election was close and then we just had a stronger capacity to close and we would pull it out in the grind in the grind finding it out right in the in the final two months but I do 4:02 think the debate may have changed the election a little bit I mean she seems to have picked up a couple points um in the National polling which is significant I mean it's a lot any anytime you gain a point or two in an election it matters in close elections and we've had just a smattering of State polls so far but all of them have been very encouraging for her we were up four in Wisconsin up three in Pennsylvania we had this Iowa poll that where she was only down four Trump won by by eight last time in 2020 we had a very good Maryland poll where she was you know in all the state polls that came out today or in the last day 24 hours she's at Biden's numbers or above in in all the state polls so you know look we're in better shape than they are we you know we had a very good debate which was an important threshold for her to cross as being the commander-in-chief and she did it a beautifully and adroitly and powerfully and he was the blubbering mess that we all know him to be I mean was on a I was on a network discussion 5:02 right before the debate where where one of my counterparts said you know we don't know which Trump is going to show up and I'm like yeah we do you know I mean there's only one and it's really ugly and that ugliness was all over our television for 90 minutes and he she did a lot of good for herself and I think he did a lot of damage to himself and so I think we are favored to win we still you know the way I talk about this is that we're winning the election but we haven't won it yet and what we now have to go do in the next 50 days with early votes starting just in a few days is we got to prosecute this Advantage we have and go kick their ass what do you see in her favorability numbers is she becoming more popular is he becoming less popular or is it both well this it is thank you for asking that because I actually don't talk about that enough because in some ways I'm still kind of stunned by the data you know she's regularly polling with higher favorability than unfavorability and we haven't really seen a major politician like that in in a while in American 6:03 politics and I think it's you know they talk about political physics or electoral physics I mean she's doing something right now that was you know sort of many people believed we wouldn't see a major politician achieve positive status on favorability again just because of the polarization of the country and the partisanship so she's really in a in in a very strong Place depending on the poll she's got 10 15 20 point advant manages on favorability over Trump and with such so little time left in the election the likelihood of Republicans denting that or fundamentally altering that is not high it doesn't mean they couldn't things can happen we all know that right but she's in a this is an important part of what's happening it's another reason why this isn't really the election really isn't as close as it appears right now because again as you prosecute a campaign certain things start to happen you know know and we're going to be spending more money we have more volunteers we're going to be talking to more voters we've got heightened enthusiasm and our candidate is much 7:08 better liked than there's his um you know which matters and he's also saddled with some of the ugliest and most unlikable Senate and gubernatorial candidates in the country you know in the Battlegrounds which is going to further and you know the worst VP pick in American history or modern American history and so the thing is there are like a a negative sentiment machine like it's just negative ugliness every day that they're pumping out and they don't have the ability at this point right to really generate you know Joe Biden's the president we're getting we're going to have interest rate Cuts this week right he's you know good things are happening in the country that we can take credit for what do they got they got cats and dogs they got sharks and batteries they got like the craziest guy we've ever seen and it isn't going to get better and so I just look we we're in a good position but we all recognize that anything can happen in our business particularly in the age of trump and we just got to put our head down and keep working really hard traditionally vice 8:06 presidents don't make a difference but you have a 78-year-old candidate um who could just decompose even more than he's decomposing and you have someone who kind of reinforces all of Trump's worst qualities the meanness the lying the racism does JD Vance make things worse for Trump or is he kind of a non-factor no I think he's a major factor in this race I think what he did you know I I think something important happened with JD Vance was that sort of the the kind of unfathomable misogyny of his new strain of Maga has become a massive I think motivator for the Democratic Coalition his misogyny is shocking to me I mean I can't believe it I mean when I watched that first video 9:03 of him saying within 24 hours of him being picked I didn't really know a lot about J Vance to be honest I hadn't really followed him he just got elected he's kind of a new guy on the scene you know I knew he had written a book and had been around and so I didn't really have an impression of him as a odious and dark figure right it just wasn't sort of my vibe about him I just didn't know and I watched this video 24 hours although I have a little cold I'm sorry but quite the I 24 hours after he got picked of him saying that he thinks that women who are being beaten by their husbands need to stay in their marriage for the good of the children and I I couldn't believe it I mean honestly like I've been doing this a long time right and we've seen everything I I just couldn't believe I I watched that video five times to make sure that I wasn't misinterpreting or the person who had written the little caption on Twitter hadn't sort of gotten it wrong and he's repeated this in other settings JD Vance believes that women who get beat en and hospitalized you know by their husband should stay in the marriage for the good 10:03 of their children and I at that moment I felt like wow they're in trouble I mean good luck selling this stuff to anybody I mean it's so barbaric and medieval that you're correct in your assessment that what Vance did is that he Trump had an opt had an option of sending an olive branch to moderates and independents and never trumpers and saying look maybe I'm not going to be so bad I got this guy with me instead he picked a fire breathing you know project 2025 loving Putin askus and you know the word I call him the you know Commander Vance the leader of the handmaid taale wing of the of the Republican party in magot and it was just such an insult and by the way I think it was Central to one of the reasons they didn't get a big bump out of the convention because I think for him to have gotten a bump he would have had to improved his standing with voters who did not think well of him to begin with and that fundamentally didn't happen and so I think it was not 11:02 only a missed opportunity but Vance has been as we know right from his polling data you know far more unpopular than Sarah Palin and Dan Quail you know which puts him in you know pretty rarified territory as a as a for a guy to become this unpopular this fast ain't easy in our business because I think Americans generally want to think well of their leaders and they aren't quick to sort of think ill of somebody so for Vance to have become among the most unpopular politicians in the country this quickly you know was um a pretty remarkable achievement for him and the most recent episode in which he has cooked up a blood liable against legal immigrants uh people of color subjecting them to bomb threats forcing them to evacuate schools close hospitals in this mean-spirited entirely false narrative that he and Trump have bought into seems 12:03 to have in my mind also done something to the media when he met with Dana Bash on Sunday for an interview on CNN there was a new level I think of disgust and of willingness to say you're a liar yeah and you're hurting people what do you think this episode does in terms of the coverage in terms of how he's perceived I think it's a great question and and I I do really believe that the basic fundamental political dynamic in the media for the last few years has been underestimating our strengths and overestimating theirs I think this has been sort of the basic approach right where their sins are ignored and ours are Amplified and and so I do think that there has been I wrote about this a couple weeks ago I do think that the media is beginning to kind of like take baby steps to getting out of this sort of you know pulling the curtain back on the wizard or calling the emperor having 13:04 no clothes whatever the whatever you're understanding of how to think about this and I think it's been you know it happens gradually right it's step by step and I think you're right I think that I think sort of the outrageousness of this episode coming on the heels of the debate where it was so obvious that they were trying to change the subject in sort of a disgusting way because by the way not only have H these hospitals and schools and universities and colleges that have been altered you know are probably 85% white right I mean you know it's like it's not only H targeted at Haitians right it's like affecting the entire now they canel their major fall festival in the city right and these are JD Vance's constituents right these are his voters these are his people this isn't you know this isn't the other these are his peeps right in a very Republican City and it is um no I do think that you're right that in this crazy game that we're in every day 14:05 kamla's strong performance made her stronger and more virtuous and more correct and more powerful in the media's mind and Trump there was blood in the water with Trump right he looked unbelievably weak and pathetic it was undeniable he was by the way I would argue just as weak and pathetic in the first debate but that got obscured by Biden's you know uh terrible performance he was just as bad at the convention right I mean like every time he speaks and right this is why they have a serious strategy problem now I mean the election is starting to slip away from them and how do they how do they change the trajectory of the election what tools do they have they don't have many because they they don't have candidates who can do it right right you know because both of them create more mess than they clean up or generate more negative news and hurt themselves every 15:00 time they speak and so they have to do it with advertising and the problem is we're going to have more money and more ads and greater field operations so you know they're in a really difficult spot they don't really have any obvious way to change the trajectory of the election we know from 2016 that I was saying similar things in October of 2016 and then they found a way to change the trajectory of the election they had James Comey do it for them um and so there's always a possibility that extraordinary things happen which is why we got to run through the tape or whatever anybody says but they are now in a you know I think the recriminations of the down ballot Republicans BEC You know and people who still care about the Republican party I mean it was interesting to watch some very prominent Republican Senators for example go after Trump for Laura lumer um and really kind of break character right around something that to all of us seems kind of obscure and weird but where there State that's the place they're going to break from Trump right not on all this other stuff they're going to break about having Laura lomer 16:04 around and what do we need to know and and I and so I do think that um this has been a really really bad you know stretch for for Trump in Vance and the problem is it's getting late and you know their ability then to you know the way to think about it is that you know it's halftime and we're up by a few points and they have to you know claw and get their way back in and it's not going to be easy for them and I and I you know Trump can't do another debate right that would be one option and he may agree to it at some point right they may decide to do the Hail Mary and have him go and do another debate but man it's just as somebody who's worked on campaigns it's just very hard to see their path forward that isn't anything other than just a lot of trouble for them at this point and you know who does have a debate upcoming JD Vance and I have not entirely um in 17:00 humor suggested he might not be able to make it um and it would be a good idea to pull him obviously when he goes and screws up Trump will disavow him but as you said The more you see of these guys the less people like them let me shift gears just a little bit to House and Senate yep in house races traditionally they've had less Name ID so as goes the presidency so goes the house is that the case here and are there other factors at play that may allow house Democrats to either do better or they should be concerned they might be doing worse well it's a great question these are all good questions John I'll come back on I'm enjoy I know you're doing good I mean this is interesting interview actually um the and I shouldn't expected anything less by the way I should I should say um yeah I mean it's an it's a very interesting question about how house races work because when I was the senior adviser to the GC in 18:03 2018 we a lot of our strategy was we felt the midterm would be bad for Trump and we just focused on getting the name idea of our candidates up because in 2016 there had been during the presidential year an enormous drop off from Clinton down to the house candidates and you know so this huge swell of money that's come into our system and swell of volunteers that is also not just come into Harrison walls but it's come into every Federal race every Senate and House race has seen an enormous upwelling of money and volunteers to do the work that is above all else that's going to go towards Name ID right I mean and make sure that when people vote at the top of the ticket there isn't a significant drop off and so we have more tools because of all the money our Grassroots is giving and all the work they're doing and because some many of you know we have eight or nine of the key races 19:03 are in places like New York and California where they can draw upon huge reservoirs of volunteers we have more tools to get the name ID out there um and I will tell you I've interviewed I I endorse house candidates I've raised over a million dollars for the top house candidates in the country universally everyone I I interviewed after the change you know told us that they had seen an enormous upswing swelling of volunteers and money so I do think that this is a smart committee the DC this cycle is very smart I think they've been very measured in the how they've crafted the field and who that where they're putting their resources I think they've been really smart and not overreached and not under reached I mean sometimes you can be under ambitious and not shoot high enough and other times you can shoot too high I think they've done a very good job of crafting the battlefield this time to take advantage of the opportunities that we have there's just a lot of optimism because you know as you know there there are it's 17 I think 20:05 now Republicans are in districts that Biden won right and those districts have SE are going to see this sort of Kamala surge right that because it is Democrats are so enthusiastic and so it just became much more likely that we win when the change happened and her numbers with Democrats have gone up so much that becomes very material in all these house races right we're not having to go win in districts that are you know super red districts right I mean the interesting thing about the the house this time is that you know we have both a high floor and a low ceiling sort of I mean the the battlefield is not huge I mean there is there is a limit to how many races we can win but it's far more likely in my view today that the house flip if things stay where they are and we are on this trajectory that we should flip the house and there is not just optimism at the hakee Jeff level but the can Cates feel it they're having fun 21:00 they're excited they it's so much fun to run when you got all these volunteers showing up in your events right you know and so they're having a good time and they also have a you know the the the Republicans I mean the central Insight I had or the central argument I made about this election was that Republicans by continuing to embrace Maga and Trump now being sort of super Maga ultraa they had abandoned so much of this Middle Ground playing field right where these house races in particular are often won or lost and they just you know there's so our candidates also have very the Comm has created an incredibly strong rhetorical place for these candidates to go around patriotism love of country Freedom opportunity right man this is like I mean I I've written about this a lot I mean I feel like right now the Democratic party which I've been part of and working for for over 30 years you know are our ideology today isn't 22:01 populist or Progressive or Centrist or moderate it's based on love of country and patriotism and I really feel in many ways that the place we're in right now is the most powerful rhetorical and ideological Place we've been in since I've been in the business and the candidates feel that by the way they feel like their language they're using is comfortable they feel like the other guys feel more extreme than they did before right and so there there's a lot of optimism in the house right now but again these are very expensive races we have to keep working really hard it is also interesting as someone who has been in one party and is now in the other that Republicans used to Corner the market on patriotism it was always the dig that not only were Democrats weak on defense but they were always criticizing America they were down on America and now you have Trump saying essentially this is a hole country and you know 23:00 we're in Decline and everything is run and you know the the good guys out there are are enemies and it's just an extraordinary rhetorical and Visionary flip um between the two parties it's it's just stunning to me listen Adam kininger at the at the convention said something that was really deeply meaningful to me as somebody who like you I mean has seen this journey from Reagan to where we are today um and was part of the new Democrats right to sort of redirect the the trajectory of the democratic party when he said you know I have a news for my Republican friends the Democratic party is just as patriotic as we are they love their country as much as we do oh man was that a moment right like that was I really I was in the hall for that I I just was like whoa this is so I mean for people of a certain age right like yep I mean I don't know if that was as meaningful to younger people as it was for those of us who've been through all this and you 24:01 know that was a Big Mo I think that was one of the most powerful speeches in modern American history that's I agree with that and one of the most powerful lines she had in Her speech and I remarked upon it and chills up my spine is when she said the greatest privilege in the world is to be a citizen of the United States that's the language you want that just makes your heart sore I I think that one of the things that people underestimated about her and and I was on you know I do a podcast with Tara McGowan who's very brilliant young woman that I've gotten to know and she said you know for all the women who feel underestimated in their careers you know KL is like out there for us right you know and and but one of the ways I think that people maybe underestimated isn't the right word but didn't understand perhaps is the right way to think about it is that she is a child of two immigrants who came here from very far away to be here to you know and immigrants tend to be the most patriotic 25:02 yes they serve in the military more right than anybody else they you know all these measures of patriotism that you know because they're closer to that they they actually have lived in a time with people who came here because of the idilic America that we all want to believe is still there yes and they are loathed to let go of that right when they go so KLA Harris in addition to being all these other things that she is she is also very close to the aspirational Immigrant experience which is one of the reasons why I think when she talks about opportunity it it bites it's meaningful to her this stuff is is conveying something deeply powerful because she herself had the Serendipity the opportunity all these things you could talk about to to go through the Journey that she really went on like this middle class family right that it's an incredible story K story is incredible 26:00 and I think people don't realize how connected it really is to her immigrant experience and and it's why I feel like she's been very I I've believed that one of the reasons that Joe Biden struggled to connect on the economy over the last few years is that during covid we became the shutdown Democrats and they were you know and that we became Joe Biden kind of got branded as a guy or or the way I say it that we got on the other side of opportunity with too many voters she's putting our party back on the right side of opportunity and this is very powerful for us yes and the fact that the Ft had economic polling data showing us now being ahead on the economy over Trump is a huge political achievement by the Harris campaign it's huge and and they deserve a lot of credit for that as someone who insisted abortion and dubs was much more important than the 27:00 conventional wisdom and railed at uh my colleagues in the media that argued oh it's not going to be any big deal it'll be a wash it still has surprised me that abortion has remained as Salient as it is and there may be a few reasons and I'm curious what your take is one Republicans keep putting their foot in it like IVF and the other is the reality of this cruel misogynistic policy that all of us predicted is in fact coming to fruition and we just had a report this week from Pro publica which is a national treasure that at least two and they suspect more women in Georgia died because of these bands what's going on here and how do you think that going to continue to Ripple through the body politics so Jen when in 2022 when I was out there saying 28:05 the election was going to be better for Democrats than most people believed and you and I talked frequently during that period Tom B and I often said that we think that as bad as abortion was going to be in 2022 was going to get a lot worse for them because these abortion banss were going to kick in and and the awful reality of what the right because it wasn't just the ending of dobs yes dos could have ended but then they had all these trigger bands already passed they were ready and they in a in a moment of of just wild ideological extremism and unreality they somehow believed this was all going to be okay for them politically and I think it's because I think on this issue repu many Republicans can't see clearly it's ideological theological whatever you want to call it and data is it can't penetrate that sort of bubble of understanding and so I think the Republican Party many of these people 29:00 never contemplated that there could be a citizen revolt against killing babies right and and so um here we are right you know when you go back to the crackup if we end up winning this election by a comfortable margin this period of time we'll know as the three architects of the true decline of the Republican Party are going to be Donald Trump Mitch McConnell and Justice Alo right who you know really radicalized a lot of people and I think for a lot of young women in particular how can you ever go back to this party after what they've done and and I and I'll give you an example of this right we talked about the misogyny I think to answer your question very particularly one is because it got worse and two is they're promising to make it worse yes so it's it's not you know could they have taken a position that would have softened this on the edges or rounded it they could have they didn't right they continued and and double triple down on the misogyny and the you know the 30:02 stripping of Rights and Freedoms away of women in America that are common in countries all around the world I mean and I spoke to a group of students uh the other day friend of mine teaches a class and he had me do a talk to 250 students in Florida and this came up as a question and I said I I just want to say to all the women in the room cuz my daughter's in college on the west coast and so she's the same age the people I was talking to and I said you just need to realize that because of Donald Trump and Ronda santis you have fewer rights and freedoms now in your life than women do in Mexico and Brazil and throughout the modern world and they want to make it far worse they're going to keep going and it was painful for me to say this right in this room but I felt obligated to say it and to not sugarcoat what we're really doing is that these 20-year-old women who just want to go live their life I said I actually said 31:01 it is more likely now that you're going to die in child birth than it was before because of them yes it's incredible that we're talking about this and so you know if if there's ever an issue that should cause a political party to be out of power for a very long time trying to overturn American democracy and install a fascist dictator is one the other one is this exactly you know and they've done two and that's why this election is nothing like 2016 and 2020 and all these pundits who are talking about how it's just going to be like 2020 you know I you expanded the rhetorical ability for us to discuss I mean they're just unbelievably full of that this election is going to be like 2020 right Donald Trump and the Republican Party have don't resemble anything like the party of 2020 or 2016 because of all this and I think there's this continue to your point in part because the polling political Industrial complex is still largely white male driven there is a continued diminishment of the 32:04 centrality of this issue right and and I think for men this is still an issue they're working through but I will tell you what has happened and I and I feel this deeply I do think something's happened this year not last year where the proximate threat of them winning the continued missogyny of and outrageousness Advance has gotten men in a far more offensive position to protect the women in their lives because the women in their lives have been stripped of Rights and Freedoms and why would they ever want that and now it's G to get worse there's like an attack on women and so I think men are now becoming more radicalized by this than they were before and it's why this is becoming a huge toxic stew political stew for the Republicans they're look they're in if they if they lose the abortion ban there there are two stories that I think are not getting enough attention in the National media right one is what happens in all these Battleground states where Republican senators are losing by you know between 33:03 five and 10 points it's very unlike you know do they all drag Trump down do Democrats able to use the unpopularity of the sen Senators candidates to beat up Trump it's a huge important Dynamic of this election that was not present in 2016 and 2020 coupled with the abortion ballot initiatives which we just don't there's been virtually no attention to how they're going to impact places like Montana and Arizona right and if we win the ballot initiative in Florida and if Ronda santis you know loses that given how hard they're fighting it is going to be an incredible blow to this movement to this the the handmaid's tail you know wing of the Republican party's efforts to you know the idea that there will be confirmation they've gone too far yeah and they need to pull back and they need to readjust and and and hopefully someday sue for peace on this which is what we we want you know I would say two things one is it really does help to have a male second gentleman who does 34:04 get out there and support um a strong woman and I would not underestimate his role as a role model for other men I think he's been marvelous on many issues including this one I would also say I had to laugh someone did a poll um that said you know since 2016 young women have gotten to be more Progressive I had to laugh I wrote a book about it yes it's how women saved democracy they were injured they were floored they were devastated by a country that would elect Donald Trump so yes women and young women have become more Progressive let me transition to what you were just talking about um which is the Senate races when you looked at the map at the beginning of the Season it didn't look great for Democrats you had Ohio you had Michigan which is kind of iffy of course 35:00 you have Florida Texas you also have Arizona um Nevada which can be dicey and you know you were thinking oh God they could lose four five six seats yeah it seems like the only seat where there's real concern at this point um and caveat caveat caveat about polls and Y subsequent events might be Montana um and I'm not even sure Montana is at risk why is this happening and why are Democrats talking about Nebraska Florida Texas yeah look it it's amazing and and I think I think this is why you know I I said this in in a discussion I was in earlier today that you know we're ahead by now three to four points in the National polls we're ahead in the Congressional generic we have you know we're now seeing you know by similar amount um you know we are seeing these huge huge financial and enthusiasm and 36:00 volunteer advantages and we're seeing Republicans just sucking wind in the Senate Races they sucked wind in all these offe special elections over the last two years and you know there's like no good news here for them any anywhere and and so I do think that where the map is now is that we are in you know comfortable positions in virtually all those races and particular and I think that the the stuff with cats and dogs having Play Gone you know been in Ohio I think Democrats are probably going to redirect more money into shered Brown who is is winning yes but there's now kind of uncertainty in that state right like there's volatility there now that we just have to make sure he comes out the other side of right and so I think there's a renewed call to keep focusing on him he's leading but that's a little bit closer and it's a much harder State and then Montana there you know the way the family views Montana right now is it's a tossup yeah I mean I know that 37:03 the last two polls that were done which the Republicans are spinning very hard because they need some bit of good news they can try to find somewhere and they're over spinning this the last two polls in republ that were done in Montana that showed tester down were done by the Republican party of Montana and by Trump's pollster and I'm sorry like I'm not I'm not going to really rely on those people to really tell me the true picture the last public poll done before that done by a republican pollster had tester ahead right so in talking to one of the top Senate people a few days ago the way we talk about that race is that it's a tossup and it could go either way and we just have to keep working really hard will one of these other stretch Senate races really materialize for us I think we're going to know very soon I think that you know you know K was so new right I mean like everyone was so cautious that this sort of positive stuff that was happening was it firm ground was it a bounce out of the convention like you 38:05 know it's so wild none of us you know this would if if you had told this story of KLA Harris's rise from Biden it would have been rejected as a season Arc in westwing it would have been impossible right right and um but here we are and I think that I think there's been a lot of um just generally sense that they don't people don't feel firm ground yet they don't really know that this continued surge to us is is lasting is a is a structural change versus a a bump right right that could recede my own view is I think it's structural I mean we're going to find out and and I think the party committees are probably spending an enormous amount of money right now yeah in really trying to understand where Texas and Florida really are and what your you know what your viewers and listeners need to realize is that going into those States is a hundred million doll thing right this is not you know yes we can win those States but at what cost and what does it do to other places does it mean 39:05 we lose Ohio right like so these are not it's not simple and there is not unlimited money and resources and so I think we should be encouraged by the polling we've seen in Texas and the polling we've seen in Florida it means lightning could strike right in these places it means that Nebraska perhaps and Missouri right I mean this pole in Iowa had to have um was came out a few days ago from Ann Seltzer in the de Mo register comma Harris was down four points Trump won that state by eight so she's overperforming the 2020 numbers by four points in a state where we haven't even set foot in there in years right and and that I think that for anyone who's doing real analysis who's really in the game and not a not a jokester that poll shook things up a little bit because it meant in a a red place where we were not spending money are not competing you know in any meaningful way and remember I think that part of the legacy of this is that the governor of Iowa right Endor 40:05 to santis and campaigned against Trump and I think that you know there's bad blood with Trump in Iowa and and so some of that carried over and so you know I think my advice to everyone here is that the election is wild and people who do data are going to be naturally conservative because what's happening is so extraordinary and so unpredictable that you can't you can't let 30 years of experience 20 years of experience you know dictate that yeah we'll go but man like we need this has to be real it can't be it can't be um ephemeral yes and we can't make a big commitment into Florida and then burn hundred million doar because part of what happened to Hillary in 2016 let's all remember is that they took their eye off in the map a little bit at the end and didn't manage the map properly trust me that is not going to happen this time right and everyone learned from that it was like these lessons that will burn in Democratic party operatives for 30 years 41:06 and it's why you're seeing this sort of conservatism about the map because at the end of the day job number one is beating Donald Trump I mean that is Absolut thing we got to do at all you know and and that's so I think we'll see I mean I think that my my prediction is or my instinct is that there will be some kind of definitive call about these stretch C races in the next you know week at the latest maybe the next few days and it may be that Chuck Schumer says we're going all in in Texas it could happen right and but I just don't I don't know I think the thing to keep in mind is that if she's really surging now or or making significant gains with younger people of color young women younger young hispanic women young black women some of the data that Tom B has been sharing recently you know Texas is got a very very big Black and Hispanic population I mean demographically I 42:03 think it's in my gut Texas may be May respond more to her than Florida but I don't know I don't know yet and we just have to keep you know watching and keep our it's fascinating and I wish you know if we had had today if today was in June I think we would have gone into one of those two states it's just it's just so late and and they comes a point where you know this late it's very hard also to get a dollar for a dollar right in spend because the infrastructure isn't there so these are tough decisions the family is going to have to make these in the next few days but the good news is is that we're playing offense now we're not playing defense exactly and I think one thing is true in all these states which is the Republicans again have unlikable candidates yeah um in fact Ted gruz is so unlikable that Liz Cheney has endorsed his OPP who by the way is a very good very charismatic guy Colin ald 43:01 who is pretty well suited for Florida he's a pretty conservative Democrat yeah um so and the other thing I would say is that sometimes at a national level we miss another Dynamic Florida has a Gonzo issue in homeowners insurance you cannot get your home insured in Florida and I wonder if third thir party spending on that issue alone targeted at Florida homeowners could move the needle a little bit um and it's an issue like that where we don't see at the national level but it may not take much to push people so you know I was in this whole issue about Florida and I have a long history in Florida I am doing political work in Florida I did the first Spanish language advertising the Democratic party ever did in Florida 20 years ago I mean I I've been part of I was part of the team that you know picked the lock and where you know we won in 2012 and 44:04 with Obama and so on and there was a lot of work that went into that over many many years and tens of millions of dollars but so I've been I've spent a lot of time there and I'll say that I'm that there is this the ballot initiative what's happening with the B the abortion ballot initiative is a little bit stunning to me I mean I knew all the polling last last year in the spring was that it it would get over 60 and pass but it's still over 60 in bowling and it's September and there are a lot of Republican women very publicly working to unravel the six-week abortion ban in Florida and this is a huge problem for disantis I mean this is a cleavage I mean just in the in the way you had your own Journey yes right through all of this you know the whole political science theory is that if you vote for a certain party three times then you're now part of that party and you know we 45:02 now are going to have Republicans former Republicans they may still consider themselves Republicans the equivalent of Reagan democrats right I don't know what we're going to call them Harris Republicans right Harris Biden Republicans we now will have Republicans in these Battleground states who voted with us in 2018 voted us with in 2022 voted with us in 2020 I mean 2020 and 2022 and may vote with us and you know Liz chain I mean one of the things I would love to come back on after the election is you know is do people like Liz chany and Adam kininger at this point is going back to even some newly reconstituted center right party even really possible right I mean she's now for the second election cycle in a row she's endorsed Democrats she's now campaigning for you know she now the second cycle in a row she's campaigning for individual Senate candidates she's voting democat itic there's something really kind of incredible here and one of the things I wonder is that you know we had a huge 46:04 party realignment 60 years ago in America in the 1960s are we going through something that's a little bit more profound than we even understand right now because I think the assumption is that many of these folks will just snap back into going to some reconstituted center right party either called Republican or called something else I don't know I mean what happens if the you know the new RNC chair in January if Trump loses as a fire breathing Maga person and you know and so I I think what's going on with Republicans like the things we've discussed earlier has not it's been downgraded in significance in ways that are I always have felt have been wrong I mean I feel the fact that you know I'm on the same team now with Dick Cheney and you and steuart Stevens you know and and uh Bill Crystal I mean you know like oh my God like how is that even possible thank God all of 47:03 you have shown the courage right to stick to your knitting and and so I think I think that it's so this is really I think a much bigger issue than we all really understand because we're living through it but there's something we should talk about this after the election because it's really important I think that is a fascinating very uh timely point and we will have you back after the election because we're going to want to know what happened and why it happened thank you so much Simon not only for talking sense for talking people off the ledge continually which um you know seems to be your job by the way I get the same uh comment from people oh thank God you've kept me sane it's like I'm practicing medic without without a license sorry um but uh thank you for you for all you do and thank you for the data the facts um facts matter um so thank you and we'll look forward to having you back another time thanks so much and keep up the great work done I'm really I I enjoy our back and forth in 48:01 dming and other things when we just but two of us look at each other go what in the world was that right I mean just the craziness that we're witnessing with our own eyes it's been fun to be with you and thank you for all that you do it's a fun ride wow I feel like I learned a lot about polling and about the polls from Simon as I always do and I think there are three or four takeaways from all of this one is it's okay to believe good news but and that's the big butt you haven't won anything yet that all of this says that you're in a position to win but you haven't won a lot of the optimism that you hear from Simon is dependent upon us using that money using those volunteers to drive the vote to drive public opinion and that has seven more weeks to go so nobody's won anything it does mean you would absolutely rather to be the 49:06 Democrats than the Republicans because as he described it not only are the Republicans behind but they got nothing to change the direction of the race because their issues are cruddy their candidates are worse and at some point public opinion hardens as it were people say okay I saw the debate I made up my mind and throw in early voting and Republicans are running out of Runway so that's number one takeaway number two I think is that candidates matter people remember when kamla Harris was elevated and people said oh she's the worst possible candidate she was too liberal or they said oh she got off to a bad start there are much better candidates out there someone who's never run for national office let's get one of them no 50:03 no no it is not your position on issues which you can calculate along some timeline and some spectrum that is going to determine who is going to win an election it's the candidate quality and yes ideology is part of that but it's so much more it's related ability it's intelligence it's empathy it's the smarts to pick your spots it's all of those things and Democrats are smarter and they've got better candidates and there's no better example of that than KLA Harris and we're seeing it again in the Senate races where the Republicans have picked just dodo birds and it's not surprising then to me that that all their expectations oh it's a red State 51:00 oh this guy is too liberal um have not panned out because it matters what candidate is on the ballot it really does and the third takeaway that I have is that yes we are going through a mammoth realignment that was brought on by the overreach and abusive quest for minority party minority power rather by the Republican party and it manifested in its determination to capture the court it manifested in its determination to Jerry Mander seats like nobody's business and you wound up with a party that temporarily cobbled together enough to win the presidency at one point and at one point they had the house in the it but it was unsustainable because it was 52:00 built on an artifice of deception of propaganda of extremism and it now has caught up to them the facts the reality has caught up to them Americans don't like this they don't like them and so the bill is now to be paid and that bill we hope is a across theboard defeat and that's the final point I have which is the margin of Victory matters more this time than in any other election and it's not just because it will make it harder for Donald Trump to cheat it's because it will signal to the Republican party they have screwed up royally and they cannot continue to go down the rule of hijinks of vote suppression of vote manipulation of propaganda of conspiracies in the hope they can craft a slim majority and attain power if the margin is big enough 53:05 it may penetrate their brains and at least some of the donor's brains that this is a losing strategy and that's the first step back to a normal kind of politics in which we don't go through election after election afraid that our democracy is going to collapse wouldn't it be nice to have that feeling that I had in 2008 2012 back when I was a Republican and which I definitely wanted the Republicans to win but I knew the country was going to be just fine with Barack Obama I wasn't going to like all the policies back then this turned out I did like a lot of the policies but that's neither here nor there but I had the sense hey they're two decent people they're both patriotic one guy is going to have a certain take on things another guy is going to have a different take he's going to have to work with Congress anyway and we'll come through the other side that no longer is the case because 54:02 you have a malicious determined anti-democratic racist fascist Republican party and that has to end with this election so you know your obligations it's to get out there it's to vote like nobody's business it's to registers to get other people excited and it's to use your platform so remember if you like this show and you like our other show please tell your friends relations colleagues they can follow us wherever they get their podcasts bye-bye [Music]

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