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RUSSIA IAI INTERVIEWS BILL BROWDER The Institute of Art and Ideas: How Russia really works: Bill Browder on surviving Putin \| Full interview PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUzw9kCJ5rc Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
How Russia really works: Bill Browder on surviving Putin \| Full interview The Institute of Art and Ideas Jun 6, 2024 375K subscribers ... 246,787 views ... 7.4K likes #ukrainewar #putin #russia Bill Browder discusses Putin, Ukraine, the function of Magnitsky Acts, and the nature of corruption. This interview was recorded in September 2023, at HowTheLightGetsIn London. Book tickets to this year's festival here: https://howthelightgetsin.org/festiva... Was a regime like Putin's the inevitable outcome of Russia's hard transition to capitalism in the 1990s? Watch Bill debate the rise of BRICS at https://iai.tv/video/redrawing-the-gl... With war ravaging Ukraine and Russia exerting its power across the world, the whims of Putin are more valuable to understand than ever. Bill Browder has survived as Putin's number-one enemy ever since the murder of his lawyer Sergei Magnitsky. While dodging Interpol arrest warrants, extradition attempts, and windows in high buildings, Browder has become a world-leading expert on the internal workings of Russia, and activism to hold autocrats to justice. #russia #putin #ukrainewar Bill Browder is an American-born British financier and political activist. He is the CEO and co-founder of Hermitage Capital Management, the investment advisor to the Hermitage Fund, which at a time was the largest foreign portfolio investor in Russia. 00:00 Introduction 00:36 Was an autocrat like Putin the inevitable outcome of Russia’s hard transition to capitalism in the 1990s? 03:19 Did Putin embrace the oligarchs out of choice or necessity? 04:47 How would you characterise the economy of Russia today? 05:52 How do Magnitsky Acts work? 08:47 How does sanctioning oligarchs affect Putin’s regime? 11:08 What have sanctions achieved since the war in Ukraine? 12:29 Can the West alone effectively sanction Russian oil? 14:19 How do you see the future of BRICS? 16:16 Could BRICS’ New Development Bank become a major force? 17:06 Why did we allow Russian money to take such a hold of London? 18:49 Can this be reversed through legislation? 20:01 How do you see the future of Russia after Putin? 21:19 Will we manage to toughen up on Russia, or will we slowly lose our resolve? 23:22 If Trump becomes president again, will he cosy up to Putin? The Institute of Art and Ideas features videos and articles from cutting edge thinkers discussing the ideas that are shaping the world, from metaphysics to string theory, technology to democracy, aesthetics to genetics. Subscribe today! https://iai.tv/subscribe?utm_source=Y... For debates and talks: https://iai.tv For articles: https://iai.tv/articles For courses: https://iai.tv/iai-academy/courses Transcript Introduction 0:00 and my biggest fear was that there would be Bill Browder fatigue that people would stop caring about Sergey magnitsky and my cause and what I was doing and every time there there was sort of this fatigue and there always this human nature um Putin would do something so terrible and so outrageous that he would elevate my my relevance again and I suspect that when it comes to Ukraine he's got the same tendency Bill Browder welcome to how the light gets in great to be here so you're someone who did business in Russia during the wild west days if you like of Was an autocrat like Putin the inevitable outcome of Russia’s hard transition to capitalism in the 1990s? Russian capitalism after the collapse of the Soviet Union do you think a naout such as Putin was the inevitable outcome of the circumstances of that era well so the way that Russia evolved was that it started with Boris yelson Boris yelson was a Democrat uh he was interested in free speech um Etc um but in order for him to get into Power he basically had 1:01 to do a deal with the devil and the deal with the devil was um that he would allow 22 oligarchs um to become fabulously wealthy in exchange for those oligarchs to use all of their assets and media resources to make sure he got elected and they they complied with their part of the deal and he complied with his part of the deal and so in the end you ended up with um 22 oligarchs who controlled more than 40% of the GDP of Russia and the average Russian um was living in abject poverty the um life expectancy for a male at that time was 58 years old and um as a result of that it created such anger um such anger at the oligarchs such anger at democracy such anger at the whole system and such a Poss and such a pent up demand for backlash that Putin stepped in to that backlash and when Putin stepped in he said I'm going to get rid of the oligarchs I'm going to bring power back 2:00 to the state um etc etc um but he didn't do that I mean he did that for for he started out doing it he start he did it for for a couple of years I mean he's been in power now 23 years he did it for the first three years um but after that um he basically arrested the richest oligarch which by the way I cheered because I thought okay one down 21 to go um and and then uh but but he did that in order for the oligarchs the rest of them to see um that they had to go do a deal with him and they all said what what's the deal and he said 50% and and that was when Putin became the richest man in the world um and became the biggest oligarch himself and he didn't dismantle the system of oligarchs the oligarchs um continued to exist they held 50% of his um 50 I say 50% of their wealth was to him um and then he he then cultivated new oligarchs who were his Pals from Judo class and uh uh Lakeside um Resort 3:02 where he had his summer house and various other things and um and so now you have um Putin who's worth 200 billion or maybe a lot more and then if you add up all the oligarchs around him um uh it adds up to a trillion dollars of money that was stolen from the Russian state so do you think it it was Did Putin embrace the oligarchs out of choice or necessity? basically Putin's personal decision of the time he could have just gone on to dismantle the you know remaining 21 oligarch s but he just thought well I can get really rich from this and decided not to or were there are structural forces you think that would have pushed him in that direction well I think there's cultural forces in Russia I mean b basically there's not a single person I've ever come across in Russia that doesn't go into government in order to enrich themselves from the lowest traffic police officer to the president of Russia I've never seen it you know here in the UK and in the United States um you know many people go into public service to serve the public and and there's great joy from doing good um 4:02 there's not there's not an ounce of that in Russia nobody that I've ever met in in government um has any feeling of that responsibility it's just pure it's purely to enrich yourself and the and the higher you higher you are in the whole system the Richer you get and so um I think it was kind of inevitable just based on the culture of Russia which is this it's this very cynical culture and and and maybe not to even blame the Russians on it because they've they they've been so beaten down through any initiative any Goodwill has has sent you to the Googs for for generations and so um why you know from their perspective why do anything different and and Putin was just part of that and he was very good at it what would you How would you characterise the economy of Russia today? call the economy of Russia today so supposedly transitions from communism to capitalism but it's a very bizarre type of capitalism because you have to be mates with the president or have to be 5:00 in that kind of like privileged Circle what what is the economy of Russia today it's not capitalism at all it's just a it's a the economy of Russia is just one big criminal organization that's what it is the top Crime Boss is Putin and then he's got sub crime bosses and it's all organized like a major criminal organization it's not like you can go to Russia set up a business succeed and be allowed to succeed any any person who sets up a business in Russia um has to become part of the criminal organization if you don't you have all your stuff stolen from you you go to jail you might die and so it creates this unbelievable incentive for anybody who's got any talent in business either to leave and many people do um or to become a criminal that's it only two options so How do Magnitsky Acts work? because of this you have championed the passing of the so-called magnitsky acts not just in Russia but around around the world it's named after in honor of your 6:02 lawyer who died in prison after he was interrogated by by the Russian State and these are supposed to be sanctions on individuals right because the idea is these people are super wealthy they are in all these big cities New York London take advantage of all the wealth and freedoms of these countries and the idea is that they need to be sanctioned so that they don't enjoy those those privileges what's the what's the purpose of that well so it all comes back uh to my lawyer Sergey magnitsky Sergey magnitsky uncovered a $230 million government corruption scheme um he was a good Patriot he exposed it um testified against the people involved and in retaliation the people involved arrested him uh tortured him for 358 days and killed him in Russian police custody on November 16th 2009 and so in in my effort to get Justice it was impossible to get Justice 7:00 in Russia so I said how do we get Justice outside of Russia and what I identified was that um the people who killed him and the people who do many similar types of crimes um take the money they do it for money they do it in Russia and then they take the money outside of Russia and they put it in New York or London or Geneva and um and they travel they they um put their wives their children in boarding schools and then and they send their parents to Harley Street doctor and and they they enjoy all the great things that that civilized society has to offer in the west and they behave like these murderous Barbarians in Russia and so the best way to stop that is to freeze their assets and ban their travel and it's much much better to go after the individuals than it is to go after the country because if you go after the country they don't care that they're still bringing you know we went after Iran and they put plain loads of caviar and champagne and and Mercedes cars and 8:01 sent them to the elite um but if you go after the individuals um and leave the people Alone um that has a profound effect and um we know how profound an effect it has because when the magnuski Act was passed in the United States Putin went out of his mind we it was like Battleship and we got a direct hit he banned the adoption of Russian orphans by American families in retaliation he made it his single largest foreign policy priority to repal the magnitsky ACT even sent um an emissary to Trump Tower in in June of 2016 before Trump was elected to beg for him to uh repeal the magnit ACT this is something which we we we found the Achilles heal of the Putin regime which is their money why does Putin find it so How does sanctioning oligarchs affect Putin’s regime? troubling given that the logic in some ways of of the magnetc is there are all these oligarchs we want to sort of make their lives harder so they might put pressures say on ptin to change policy 9:01 or avoid doing certain things but I've heard you say that these oligarchs are powerless on the face of Putin you know they can't really put pressure on him because they're too afraid of him so what's the logic there what why is it so damaging to them it's very simple the oligarchs are holding money for Putin 50 when you see an oligarch who's worth 20 billion 10 billion of it's putins so if you sanction that oligarch you're sanctioning Putin after the war started um uh like a week after after um the United States and various other countries um imposed sanctions on Vladimir Putin Sergey lavro the foreign minister and various others which was a really good thing to do and very symbolic but Putin doesn't hold any money in his own name he understands that if there was ever a document if there was ever a uh piece of paper a bank statement that said Vladimir Putin on it somebody could come to him and say listen Vladimir I'm going to put this out into the public unless you you um do this this and this for me he you know Putin is a blackmailer this is what he does he he he either you know kills black mails or bribes in order to get 10:01 people to do stuff for him and so he understands that that would expose him so what does he do he finds people that he can trust and and there's no such thing as real true trust in Russia so he finds people he can trust various oligarchs and friends and various other people um and he says I want you to hold this money for me or or 50% of what you already made belongs to me now and when I when I send you an instruction you make the payment and of course this is also not just about trust is Al also about power Putin needs to show these guys that if they defy him in any way they go to jail they lose their money and they die and so these oligarchs who most of us if we see them in the world they're like these chest thumping alpha male on steroids you know tough guys but they're just a bunch of little weasy um uh wusses when when they're around Putin and I've seen it in davo Switzerland I was there when Putin show up and all the oligarchs were there and they and and 11:01 it's just it's unbelievable to watch the body language I mean these guys are like just the the most timid school children in his presence so how would you judge What have sanctions achieved since the war in Ukraine? the effectiveness of sanctions like magnitz act and others against Russia since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine because there are those people that say well nothing's working you know Russia is not stopping the war it's hasn't really influenced its economy the rubble was shooting up in value so what do you think sanctions are doing so far well they're causing great pain um in the same way as as Ukrainian missiles are causing great pain and it's our job to cause Putin as much pain as possible now we can't blame sanctions for for not working when we haven't done the sanctions to the full extent that we should be doing them um if we really wanted to stop this war um we should embargo the sale of Russian oil to the west and to the east if Russia no longer generated money from the sale of oil um then they would have to look to their 12:01 savings and their savings are frozen the Central Bank Reserves are frozen and the oligarchs money is Frozen then they'd have to look for can we borrow the money and guess what that's also Frozen the capital markets are cut off from Russia but at the moment every day Russia generates between half a billion and a billion dollars in terms of revenues from oil so if we want to stop this war um we should just finish it off follow through all the way but do you think the Can the West alone effectively sanction Russian oil? West alone has the power to do that say Europe and other kind of Western friendly countries stop buying oil from Russia we already know that Russia is selling oil to India and China there's the bricks Alliance now emerging doesn't Russia have alternative markets where it can sell its goods yeah but we also have the power to stop them from buying we could tell the Indians if you want to buy Russian oil that's great but don't don't expect to export any Goods to Europe and you know what the Indians 13:00 would fold in in a in a flick of a of an eye I mean there the there is absolutely no I mean there's a small incentive for a huge disincentive and we just need to have a more robust and muscular policy to end this war and at the moment um the people who are in charge of the policy are they're not getting distracted the war has been going on for a while and and they're letting this huge huge loophole continue which is the sale of this oil isn't that because because we don't really have that option of stopping uh the purchasing of oil from Russia you know we need the energy and we don't have alternative sources at the moment where we can get it from we have alternative sources I mean so I mean another example is that um I mean the the argument against it is that if if 10% of the world's oil leaves the market or can't go onto the market then the oil price would shoot up we'd have high inflation we're fighting with inflation already it's a painful thing nobody wants it that's a very valid argument the argument is there's other people who 14:00 produce oil um who we have leverage over the United States provides a military shield for Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia could easily um increase the production of oil and allow us um not to have that problem why are we not using that How do you see the future of BRICS? leverage so Saudi Arabia the United Emirates other countries Iran are now joining bricks what do you make of that do you think it's going to become a sort of geopolitical force is it going to become a little bit like I don't know the G7 or NATO these are all Emerging Markets these are countries that are becoming richer and richer every year what you where did you see this going um well I mean the the big idea is having a bricks currency and when I hear that I I just laugh um you know it's it's never going to happen in a million years who who would want to hold the currency of Russia uh uh you know what about China 15:00 though I wouldn't want to own the currency of China China is is is the most arbitrary uncertain uh bad place and by the way China's no economic Miracle you know CH China's got is going through uh a pro problem right now which is just going to get worse and worse and worse and so I I remember when I was in business school I graduated business school in 1989 and at the time Japan was the the Beall and endall their stock market was trading at alltime High High the the value of the one mile in the central Tokyo was more than the value of all real estate in California um we were studying how Japanese did their things and now Japan is like a a you know nothing um and that's the same that I I I guarantee you in 20 years time when we're looking at China we're going to see the same thing China is is a was a failed economic experiment authoritarianism lack of free speech um demographics all this kind of stuff doesn't lead to um good economic outcomes and it's not as if there's 16:02 millions of people on boats trying to get into China youve got people trying to leave China to get into the United Kingdom in the United States and Canada and various other places there you can you can just tell by by where the immigration is Flowing who's doing what and where where people want to be but Could BRICS’ New Development Bank become a major force? you mentioned earlier you know if Russia wanted to borrow money where would it borrow it from bricks has set up this um sort of antithesis to the to the World Bank they see it's a sort of like Development Bank that they're going to be lending money to all these other countries could that prove to be a sort of force of of bricks could that become the institution that sort of funds the development of of that group yeah and on an extremely small scale I mean this is these are numbers that would come you know that would H you know help Russia for weak not not for a year not for five years you live in London we talked earlier about how London has become the 17:00 home of all these Russian oligarchs and plutocrats war in Ukraine has exposed Why did we allow Russian money to take such a hold of London? even more the fact that Russian money has its sort of tentacles in London property and all sorts of kind of assets why did we find ourselves here why did we allow Russia to have such a kind of big influence over the capital of the United Kingdom and that can that be undone well I think it's being undone slowly as we speak that these people are no longer welcome here now um uh but but you're your question is a really good one that they they came here and the British establishment welcomed Russian gangsters and oligarchs with open arms and completely look the other way when it came to where the money came from who these people were what kind of people these people were I mean if they had if Pablo Escobar and his drug cartel had showed up in London we would not have welcomed them but but the people from Russia who came here have committed crimes similar to Pablo Escobar and the 18:03 lawyers the accountants the bankers the luxury goods salespeople the concierges of London just welcome them without any question and I think this comes you know this is this is sort of a trading center there was this you know history of colonialism and you know eating in the fine men's clubs on uh German Street um and then doing the Terrible things in India and Africa and I think that that there's a sort of culture of acceptance here that that it doesn't matter what happens abroad everything is fine here and that was the culture that that allowed all this money and I I know all sorts of people who sold their souls um uh for Russian money during this 20-year period when all the money flowed here and do you think this Can this be reversed through legislation? can be undone simply in virtue of sort of government legislation or is there going to have to be a sort of change in cultural attitude to this sort of 19:01 influence of money in in public life well I think the Russian stuff is being undone because of the atrocities committed in Ukraine and and it's unacceptable and the British public no longer allows you know just can't tolerate that the British public has been really good on on these the Ukraine conflict really good but the establishment the rules the government the law enforcement agencies are not um fit for purpose when it comes to dealing with dirty money and we may not welcome Russian money because we've Now sort of highlighted that um but the Saudis are here no problem and they're they're committing terrible crimes in Saudi Arabia there's a person just um sentenced to death for retweeting some tweets critical of the government um we welcome kazak money we welcome U all sorts of other money from all sorts of other really dodgy places um and and there's not not been one inch of change when it comes to that how do you see the How do you see the future of Russia after Putin? 20:01 future of Russia after Putin you know Putin might not be here for much longer there's all this speculation about what might happen to him do you think Russia can transform into a genuine democracy or will it just be the next autocrat taking over well I think there's a 90% chance it's more of the same and probably more of the same with Putin I mean all this rumors about his health are probably wishful thinking uh I think the most likely base case scenario is that um you know 5 10 years from now we're still dealing with Putin unfortunately um if he's not to be in power um the most likely scenario is another kleptocrat type of character would step in but there is hope there are a few people out there Vladimir caram morza close friend of mine Ilia Yashin these are all people who are sitting in jail right now for challenging Putin for asking for demanding democracy in Russia and um you know we shouldn't underestimate the 21:00 hunger inside every person to want to live freely um it's it's a demand and a desire of most people and um no matter how much oligarchs and kleptocrats and tyrants try to game the system it goes against human nature and what about the Will we manage to toughen up on Russia, or will we slowly lose our resolve? wests in relation to the conflict in Ukraine do you think we will manage to toughen up even more towards Russia and stop buying oil from them or is the opposite going to happen are we going to start getting War fatigue and losing losing interest and feeling more of the pain of inflation and all the rest of it and eventually kind of allowing Russia to win the war well um sadly the um the second the uh the what I see as a trend towards um not supporting Ukraine in uh in the United States um it's become part of the uh Maga 22:00 Republican party ticket to not support Ukraine um the uh uh Kevin McCarthy the the Speaker of the House of Representatives wouldn't welcome Vladimir zalinsky to address the House of Representatives this week uh while he was in Washington uh it's the Slovak president is now or I should say the the leading candidate for president is now saying no more weapons for Ukraine there's a lot of murmur and undertone of that however I've been through my own you know microcosm of this conflict for for many years more than decade I've been in conflict with Putin over the murder of Sergey magnitsky and my biggest fear was that there would be Bill Browder fatigue that people would stop caring about Sergey magnitsky and my cause and what I was doing and every time there there was sort of this fatigue and there always this human nature um Putin would do something so terrible and so outrageous that he would 23:02 elevate my my relevance again and I suspect that when it comes to Ukraine he's got the same tendency which is that when people are starting to say ah war is going on for such a long time it's expensive Etc he'll do something so outrageous that even the the most awful people who who want to capitulate won't have the ability to push in that direction you mentioned MAA in the If Trump becomes president again, will he cosy up to Putin? United States when when Trump was in power he came close to doing a deal with PU over you over giving you over to the Russian authorities do you think if we see a trump presidency number two these cozy relations with with Putin will come back or do you think the war in Ukraine has changed that no I mean Trump is Trump if Trump was President um I think the the US support for Ukraine will stop the next day um I think that Putin will have F he will succeed Inn winning not just in Ukraine but all of a 24:00 sudden uh other places will be at risk I think it's probably the most dangerous thing that could happen to the world if Trump becomes president because he seems to be for reasons that still nobody quite understands he seems to want to side with Putin you know over democracy Bill Browder thank you very much thank you [Music]

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