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COMMENTARY THE COFFEE KLATCH ... SEPTEMBER 28TH 2024 Why are the Polls So Close? The Coffee Klatch with Robert Reich and Michael Calderon Robert Reich / Michael Calderon PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaxJM-dhlVQ Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Why are the Polls So Close? \| The Coffee Klatch with Robert Reich Robert Reich Premiered Sep 28, 2024 833K subscribers ... 242,219 views ... 12K likes The Coffee Klatch with Robert Reich How can the polls be close? We survived Trump before (some of us, anyway) and it was a nightmare! I dive into this and more with a special guest on this week's Coffee Klatch. Please pour yourself a cup and join us. Transcript 0:00 and it is the Saturday coffeee clutch usually with Heather loft house and yours truly Robert R today it is just me and I am going to introduce to you somebody who is the producer and director and Technical uh behind the scenes person who makes this happen every week Heather is a little bit behind well she's under the weather today let's let's put it that way she couldn't join us and Michael lanus uh and do you pronounce your last name Calderon Calderon Calderon Calderon Calderon you know I I just can't get the Spanish accent but Michael thank you called The Ron called The Ron uh Michael thank you so much for filling in for Heather today and um and Heather if you're watching uh thank you for everything you're doing and I just wish you could be with us today but thank you for you know taking care of yourself uh so Michael uh what do we what do we uh 1:01 going to be doing today I mean I mean everybody's very concerned about obviously the polls maybe the F the way to begin you are a polling expert at least Among Us why don't you give us give us give us the latest polls certainly an anxious poll follower uh so I will do that as you suggest thank you uh so just generally speaking you know Harris is is slightly ahead in the polling averages we're talking two to three points among most of the major pollsters and in individual states uh depending on who you're looking at you know as high as 5 to seven points in places like Nevada um and neck and neck in places like Georgia but broadly we're close we're within the margin of error for a lot of these polls I was just going to ask you that because the margin of error is about two to three points for most of these polls and we're looking at the polls in the so-called swing states that is basically Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Georgia North Carolina and Arizona maybe 2:03 Nevada uh those are the polls that count because those are the swing states that count and the swing States count that's everybody we all know this because the Electoral College so even though you have and p p and it's probably like likely that kamla Harris is going to have h a big big popular vote lead over Donald Trump still that makes no difference if the Cal College lead evaporates so this these two to three points are are very very critical yes very true and those you know six to eight states in particular we certainly wish it was more um and as a as a former ohioan myself it's it's sad to not see a place like Ohio on that list any longer given how much the race is tilted there Ohio oh my myo how I miss Ohio Michael where are you from in Ohio uh I'm from 3:00 uh near Dayton so uh certainly nothing in the news about that area recently that you've heard I'm sure um but that does that actually gives us a good segue because a lot of these I mean how could this possibly be a neck and neck race how could it possibly that's actually to me the biggest question because we've had a debate where Trump really was just incoherent P Kam Harris just pummeled him I mean just absolutely skewed him uh and then you've had uh Trump for weeks has been going on with crazy stuff about you know a Jews being responsible if he loses the election uh and oh and actually I can give you the exact quote on that it's it's kind of remarkable he said quote if I don't win this election and the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that if that happens because if 40% I mean 60% of the people voting are voting for The Enemy you know Israel will cease to exist and and he went on and on and on and it's just I mean between that and you know his 4:00 running mate uh Ohio Senator JD Vance uh talking about I mean these horrible things about the the people in Springfield I mean well that's I was I was just going to get me they're doubling down they're not they're not saying not saying I mean I don't think that he's going to go to Springfield for a rally I I think the Springfield has made very clear they don't want him to come uh but but you know the the idea of of just doubling down on a fiction about about Haitians in Springfield eating people's pets uh and you know it goes on and on I mean this Looney Laura lomer coming with him to every place and and Mark Robinson uh not distancing himself from uh the lieutenant governor of North Carolina and and and being as incoherent as he is the speeches are just losing even a thread even a even a a morsel of coherence well how can that how can yeah I mean are the polls are 5:01 the polls wrong then I mean is it really this close I mean how can it be well look at there there are several theories here one is that the polls are just wrong uh but if the polls are wrong you have to at least come up with a theory about why uh they have been have not been wrong all along that is why is it that polls are showing that Trump is regaining a little bit of ground that he had lost before why is he doing better than he did before uh I think there is a bias in the polling we've talked about this a little bit before but the bias is in the other direction a lot of people don't want to tell posters that they are in favor of Donald Trump because they think of posters as professionals uh and they are if they don't have a college degree they're a little bit reluctant to make that admission so I don't think polling is is the is the issue I mean another theory that many many people have come up with and they they tell me all the time is that it must be that the media 6:02 are trying to create this kind of tight horse race because it sells ads they want people to be very excited going into the election they don't want people to know that it's basically KLA Harris's election but the the data we have on that actually shows people if anything they are tuning out the news they're not actually becoming more enthralled by the news uh they're becoming so overwhelmed and this is true especially of the Swing States so overwhelmed by all of the political ads and everything else that they're hearing they just they don't they're they're not listening anymore oh and it's huge sums of money being poured into those ads I mean as a former swing state resident myself I can tell you I mean the airwaves are totally plastered and a certain at a certain point you you kind of have to tune it out to stay sane in your day-to-day but but go on please no no no I was I was I was going to say that that if people are tuning it out or 7:01 if they are tuning out politics in general you have this this very uh un well let's put it this way it's an it's an asymmetry in terms of knowledge about the candidates because everybody knows Donald Trump all of the surveys show that he is better known than anybody else in the United States uh but people still don't know Harris uh it was only recently that she became a presidential candidate so so there is a kind of devil you know quality to Trump's support and I'm not talking about trumpers I'm talking about a lot of people who may be wavering or may not like Trump but they say at least I know him I don't know Harris uh and I I know how bad he is I don't like him I I didn't like him when he was president but he was President already she's never been president uh I'm going to take the devil I know that is unfortunately I believe operating right 8:04 now and that's despite I mean the almost universally negative messaging that we're seeing from the Trump Campaign which is kind of remarkable but I mean I guess yes it is the devil you know but I mean to Harris's credit her campaign has been trying to spin shall we say a more positive vibe I mean we saw that over the summer with the embracing of the Charlie XCX brat brat summer theme and uh you know her team is made up of a lot of young people trying to reach those young people in New creative ways I know you're you're not on Tik Tok as much as I am but you know I have to give you are you are gen Z you are the oldest the oldest of the genes yes listen you're still the youngest person who is probably involved in in our efforts here uh but Michael there there is actually a very important point you said about her Positive Vibes uh a lot of research by cognitive Sciences uh and I've known this for years but I've just be before this program I reviewed some of it a lot of 9:02 research shows that negative messages actually are more powerful than positive messages uh and cognitive scientists say this may be because uh you know even in our brains uh for a million years we have as human beings be been conditioned to uh to to respond to fear uh more than we are conditioned to respond uh to uh to to nice messages that that that survival has depended uh in terms of survival of the fittest depended on the Fear Factor so that when Trump loads the airwaves with fearful messages about about kamla Harris uh they may have more power than KLA Harris's Positive Vibes what do you think I mean I certainly hope you're wrong I mean uh anecdotally I can tell you at least for a brief moment young people were certainly enamored with kamla Harris in a way that she was not uh ever ever that was not a brand she ever had before um but whether 10:06 that can be sustained I mean brat summer is over I don't know if you're in the no on that Bob but but I'm I'm on the no of nothing but Michael Michael tell me I mean young people are they still enamored with with kamla Harris I mean what's what do what's what where are you sensing well I mean I think that it depends right I I think that obviously there's a lot of concern about what she is going to carry over and continue from the Biden Administration in terms of foreign policy in terms of economic policy and worker power um I mean there was an interesting example this week where Chapel Rowen uh this very popular young gen Z pop star um sort of had a couple of statements come out where she was sort of she was not really enthusiastic um or or excited about the prospect of voting for Harris to the degree that she didn't you know give an official endorsement like a lot of other celebrities are she was vote for Trump right and she made very clear that that 11:02 was not the case but I think she's a good example of how a lot of young people are feeling you know there are things that young people disagree with that have happened in the Biden Harris Administration and For Better or Worse right you know Harris is on the second half of that that hyphenated Administration name so yeah I mean it's up to Harris to really continue to Define herself Michael don't they understand that Trump would be worse that is if the if you're making a choice here I mean by not making a choice you're making a choice by not voting for har you were essentially voting for Trump don't they understand this your friends generation I think they do and I think that again you know on the foreign policy in particular there's just it's I you know young you know us young people you were one once you can be very passionate about particular ISS I don't remember you can be very passionate about very particular issues and you know you feel a sense of responsibility and and whether obviously obviously I would say as a young person you know the in this election Harris certainly is the choice that would do at the very least the least damage as compared with someone like but I mean he's a Madman 12:06 let's I mean he's an absolute madman this is not just a Republican versus democratic election now look I I am uh you know I am devastated by what is going on in Gaza what has gone on in Gaza uh I think the the the Biden Administration let's call it the Biden Harris Administration should have much been and can be much harder with nanahu and not give him offensive weapons I mean I've been saying this all along and I'm strongly I'm passionate about it but does this mean does this give me any doubts about about voting for Harris no absolutely not I mean I why would I why would anybody think for a moment about voting for Trump well I think that you know the solution to this um is progressives and Democrats in the Harris campaign need to do a better job of communicating what we already know about 13:01 Trump as you said right he would certainly be worse on this issue by a country mile I mean my goodness and on so many other issues I mean we can pivoting slightly you know to the economic side of things oh the economy I mean they both came out with their they both came out with their economic plans this past week and and Trump was just I mean he he wants to raise tariffs on uh 20% 50% of all of the goods coming into the the United States which will create what price increases for everybody it's like tax on everybody a tax it's both an attack and a tax and what does that mean that means more inflation yeah and more tax cuts for the rich talking about targeting undocumented people I mean besides even the horrible things he was saying about deporting legal immigrants to this country in Springfield right I mean across the board you know it's a recipe for an inflationary disaster where if if you're concerned about pric at the pump or prices at the grocery store certainly the Trump economic plan will not benefit you unless you perhaps 14:05 own a grocery store company so so back to the theme that we were talking about why is this not getting through to people why are there still so many people who are willing to say well I'm going to go with Trump uh if it if it's you know why are they voting against their own self-interest you know what's the matter with Kansas would you remember that book I I have heard of it yeah I mean you can say what's the Midwest in general right I mean what's the matter with Ohio I mean what why are people voting or willing to vote against their economic self-interest uh I I I really don't quite know except that you know for so many years we've talked about this a little bit on this program for so many years so many people have been so uh devastated by the economy uh you uh you know as an Ohio you know this uh the you know trade and 15:03 and and big corporations Outsourcing and fighting unions busting unions and and basically getting rid of the industrial Midwest and much of the rest of the the Inland part of the economy uh well a lot of people have suffered because of that and if I might cut in I can add I mean you want to talk about people not taking a look around them or not not having the media you know pointed out as much when I go back to Ohio what I see is an economy that is recovering thanks to a lot of the efforts of the Biden Harris Administration particularly the IRA the chips act there are new you know factories going up and and data centers and all of these things which is thrilling it's thrilling and okay Ohio why aren't you coming around why aren't you seeing this and why aren't all of the Republican politicians who voted against those bills why are they taking credit for them I mean I can look around at any of those Congress people in Ohio or other states in the midwest 16:01 look at this amazing new highway this Foundry well you had an opportunity to be part of that didn't you well here this comes back to a very delicate question and that is misogyny and racism uh in other words how much of the X Factor here the unknown factor that TR where we can't explain why Trump continues to have polls that are running neck and neck with Harris uh how much of it do you think is due to just plain old racism and misogyny a black woman running for president a lot of particularly young white men who without college degrees who are whose economic prospects are are basically nil uh they are saying we can't bear this or they are subconsciously saying we need to know more about her because we don't want to vote for somebody like that I mean certainly if you just look at the messaging of the Trump Advance campaign in the last couple of weeks it's clear they're going to the lowest common 17:04 denominator on race in general and it's a shame I mean I you will talk to us and in previous podcasts you've talked with Heather about an era before this when the Republican party was not not like this it's kind of an astonishing low that they've reached and certainly Republican the Republican party is dead yes I mean it it is it is absolutely dead Michael you you are you don't remember when they really was a legitimate Republican party I I do I remember you know my father was a republican my grandfather was a republican I uh they voted for Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956 uh you know the Republican party was respectable it cared about the country it put the country above party uh well that's just simply gone uh it was going when you know new Gingrich began this before your time uh but uh but but but uh I I think and Pat Buchanan uh I mean a bunch of 18:02 Scoundrels and obviously Richard Nixon before that uh but Trump just nailed the coffin shut and I'm sure I mean your favorite Republicans I'm sure are among the first you met like Abraham Lincoln right that's right now Michael don't play the the age card okay I I go back many years certainly I mean hey but in all seriousness you know I it is I mean that is a long from the era of reconstruction and the party that advocated for civil rights that you know in that first that that first Reconstruction Era you listen they even they even ever durksen you don't remember ever dur do you remember ever durksen can't say I do okay in Illinois Republican senator he uh championed uh Lynden Johnson's 1964 Civil Rights Act uh and the Voting Rights Act after that uh I mean the Republicans were uh were not exceedingly they were not delighted about civil rights obviously because the by then uh The South was already becoming you know 19:06 was was Democrat but it was was starting to move in a republican Direction because of civil rights uh but nevertheless uh you know you you have a history that is a proud history uh Liz Cheney I hope Liz Cheney and Mitt Romney and a few others when in the take the ashes of the Trump Republican party and build a new Republican party on those ashes we need two parties in America we need to have a choice and certainly two parties that have respect for rule of law and democracy uh which I I I can't say that I believe the current incarnation of this Maga Republican party does but I mean pivoting slightly of course it doesn't we mean you can't say come on Michael we're not being I this is my Midwestern politeness coming through you know there's something implicit there um but I mean go going back to the economy for a second I mean if we're talking about the leadership of the Republican party who at this point is you know Donald Trump I it's 20:02 remarkable to me as I'm sure it's remarkable to you that a failed businessman is somehow more trusted to run the economy than well I mean part of someone who's been part of the Biden Harris Administration with more exp I mean we're talking a guy who started have you heard of these Trump Stakes I've never bought a trump stake Trump mortgages he started you know right before the big crash in 2008 Trump vodka board get tour to Trump that didn't work out too well the Trump football I mean you can go on and on how about how about casinos I mean try to lose money running a casino I I don't think it's possible the casino always wins The House Always Wins but he he Bank he bankrupted uh a lot of those casinos uh and but big the big news is I mean the big reality historically is that his father uh bequeathed him uh something in the order of 250 million and if Trump if Trump had simply take taken the money that he inherited and put it into an index fund and did nothing else with 21:05 it just shut the door just said goodbye he would have more money today on the basis of that index fund that he actually does have so he's lost money I mean he's a businessman who has spent his life losing money and losing other people's money and scamming them out of their money I mean Trump University hello as you like to say hello that's an important Point that's an important Point uh because the one of the ways he has the only reason he has succeeded at all in terms of now um having some money is because he's scammed and he hasing his workers and workers my goodness and America and America I mean that's that's what happened during his four years people don't remember there's a kind of collective Amnesia about how bad we lost almost 3 million jobs during those Trump years uh even before the pandemic things 22:01 were not nearly as good as they have been since Biden the Biden Harris Administration and I yeah I mean it's remarkable to see a candidate for a major party I don't know if you saw this this week Hawking $100,000 watches among other things I mean trading cards with his fa it's just he's only good at one thing and that is being a con man he's not good at being a businessman he is good and has perfected the art of being a con man uh but we don't want a con man as president of the United States certainly not um well that brings us to but will we I I'm going to knock on wood for this because I don't want this to happen but will we I mean is this ultimately going to come down to the fact that this is an anti-establishment moment and Harris to some represents the establishment I mean do we think that Trump and Vance and their the cultural popul cards that they've been playing are going to outweigh you know anything that the Dems can throw at them well this is actually 23:05 I I believe Michael this is at the heart of the issue uh we are in an anti-establishment era it is not just midwesterners it's not just young men it's almost everybody distrusts the major institutions of our society partly it's because of inequality partly it's because you have so much money having gone to the top and continuing to be siphoned off to the top that a lot of people say well the system stinks it is rigged it's rigged against me uh and that anti-establishment sentiment pervades America and it pervades American politics and the biggest danger that KLA Harris and the Democrats face frankly is that Republicans have embraced this cultural populism but Democrats have not embraced econom e omic populism and how would you define economic economic populism for our 24:02 audience today well I would simply say the the truth that you've got the power and the money at the top uh and they are not interested in you uh and until we change the allocation of power and money in this country so that the middle class and the working class and a lot of the poor have power and money again and I say again not in a Maga sense because I I don't nobody wants to go back to the 1950s uh but at least in the sense that what the potential of this country has been uh and the direction we used to be going in was the direction of more and more opportunity and wider and wider sharing of the gains from the economy and I think that that's what the Democrats ought to be talking about they ought to be skewering not every corporation but the big corporations that are abusing their power they ought to be skewering you know some of the 25:02 wealthiest people in this country like Elon Musk uh who every day is abusing his power and wealth uh that is economic populism 101 and I'm afraid the Democrats are themselves afraid to use it because they're so dependent on money from the same wealthy powerful people and we've seen this to some degree with uh Harris's TI to the crypto Community which you know granted I'm I'm very excited to see the Harris campaign you know has carried on like a good chunk of Biden's economic policies we're talking you know the billionaire minimum tax um and albeit to a lesser degree raising the capital gains all these things but are you worried about kamla's connection or rather just being you know somebody from the bay area right these are people she's interacted with do you think that she's going to in her in her term as president you know this is what I would be excited to see say you know we're going to continue on this sort of economic populist path that Biden has 26:01 set us on with worker power at the Forefront well I I hope she does but I'm going to be frank with you Michael just between US just between us nobody else is is listening uh I I am going to do everything I can uh to make sure that Donald Trump stays as far away from the White House as possible uh kamla Harris is wonderful she's a great candidate uh I think that I'm going to give her a lot of slack over the next few weeks in terms of what she says about what she will do or not do uh I I just want her to win yeah and I think that a lot of our audience is there with you especially because putting aside the economics for a moment and thinking long term this is actually fresh on my mind because our team has been working on a video on this um the Supreme Court and the federal courts uh at stake in this election as so many people know are you know potentially several seats on the Supreme Court we've got I you know not to not to play the age card again here Bob I apologize listen if I were on the Supreme Court right now I might think 27:03 about getting off to give Biden and Harris you know the opportunity to replace me with some someone a little bit fresher but I mean we're talking uh you know a gen Z I'd put a gen Z on the court maybe five of them if I could if I were president I mean that certainly would be would be the right strategy if you want longevity but um Thomas is 76 Alo is 74 chief justice Roberts is 69 um and the gizer court it's a gizer court naturally but I mean concerningly I mean this is because this is how you play the game right the the justices that Trump appointed are all in their 50s you've got Gorsuch at 57 you've got Kavanaugh at 59 Amy con Barrett at 52 and you know the Liberals are not getting any younger so the next president I mean I I have to imagine is going to play a huge role in shaping policy for the next several decades even beyond their four years right absolutely absolutely she could or let's hope he could uh and you're absolutely right Trump if he gets in 28:05 again he could really have appointed a majority of the Supreme Court uh and that's a that means not just the next five years or six years or eight years that means a generation or two generations that means you guys you guys Michael your people you know you ought to be you ought to be out there on the streets making sure that Trump doesn't get in I mean it's it's it's it's it would cast a PA over the entire country and the world for generations to come you know I remember I was um I you John Roberts by the way is partly responsible this is not just Trump's Court John Roberts has been steering this court in Trump's Direction John Roberts wrote that presidential immunity decision and I have been watching John Roberts for years in fact I think we have a clip of one of the first times you spoke about 29:02 Justice Roberts would you care to see it I would love to see it Senator what's come out so far is this man is obviously a nice fellow people like him he's a he's a very very bright if not brilliant jurist and and uh and a extremely thoughtful lawyer uh but he has certain ideological predispositions he has values those values are way to the right of the mainstream in America I don't think there's any question about it uh and so it is up to all of you to decide whether you want to put somebody in as chief justice who's that far to the right I think it's as simple and direct as that it was simple and direct as that I mean it was I that's Remar I mean let's talk about that for a second this that was I remember this is the Judiciary Committee yes the C Judiciary Committee and I was asked to testify and I told them I was not mining saying words I was not being political I told him that you know John Roberts is to the 30:03 right of I didn't say a Tilla the hunt but he I practically said it I said it's up to you do you want to put somebody on the court who is who is that far right and this was two decades ago that he was too far right so the fact that he's seen as one of the more moderating quote unquote forces on the court now is I mean you were there 20 years ago it must be astonishing at the very least oh Michael it's astonishing but it's not astonishing you know if you if you're in this game long enough you can see the currents you can see how the tides are taking things I mean I knew John Roberts was going to be a lousy Supreme Court Justice uh and chief justice he was going to be chief justice uh I didn't foresee the immunity decision that he authored but it was in keeping with his past certainly and I mean as a young person even seeing that and and knowing about John Roberts from before and at the composition of the court now I certainly and I would certainly 31:01 encourage other young people to think about the Supreme Court as one of the major fact I mean in particular we think about all of the abortion uh you know the the abortion discourse that's been happening and the fact that you've got abortion on the ballots in so many states this year it is crucial to get out and vote if not just because of the presidency right but if you're in a state that has one of those ballot issues on the ballot I mean you could at least make an impact in the short term there in addition to to that long-term policy impact by voting for president and Senate from your from your words from your lips to God's ears Michael Lanes Calderon Caron how did I do thaton you know you're getting there you're getting there maybe I'll guest host again and we'll try again okay listen Michael thank you uh and we miss Heather terribly do but uh but Heather hope you get better very very fast and Michael thank you for helping us and to all of you out there uh with uh how many how many days did you say we have left oh 37 roughly 37 37 days anyway just keep the faith keep working keep managing uh this country in ways that we will get a good and dedicated KLA Harris Administration bye take care [Music]

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