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US ELECTION 2024 MICHAEL MOORE PREDICTION The Humanist Report: Michael Moore Predicts Kamala Harris Will DEFEAT Trump—Possibly in a Landslide PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-VyrzMthoEA Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Michael Moore Predicts Kamala Harris Will DEFEAT Trump—Possibly in a Landslide The Humanist Report (THR) Oct 9, 2024 485K subscribers ... 94,047 views ... 4.9K likes #KamalaHarris #Trump #2024Election Documentary filmmaker Michael Moore was one of the few people to predict Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton in 2016. He later accurately predicted Biden’s victory in 2020. Now, he’s back with another prediction. Michael Moore is predicting that Kamala Harris will defeat Trump in November—and his “gut” tells him she’ll win in a landslide. Sources: Michael Moore’s Substack - https://www.michaelmoore.com/p/do-the... Michael Moore CNN Interview - https://www.mediaite.com/tv/michael-m... Harry Enten’s Full Analysis - • Harry Enten breaks down the latest ba... Support the Show: Patreon: / humanistreport YouTube Membership: / @thehumanistreport Membership via PayPal: http://www.humanistreport.com/support... Mike's Book, 'Catalyze' is Now Available on All Major Retailers! Grab Your Digital or Paperback Copy Here: http://www.humanistreport.com/book.html Visit Our Website: http://www.humanistreport.com/ Join Our Discord Server: / discord Join Our Subreddit: / humanistreport Like Us on Facebook: / humanistreport Follow Us on TikTok: / humanistreport Follow Us on Twitter: / humanistreport Follow Mike on Instagram: / mike.figueredo Follow Mike on Twitch: / humanistreport Subscribe to Our Second Channel: / @mikefigueredo8841 Download the Opt-Out App: https://www.optout.news/ The Humanist Report (THR) is a progressive political podcast that discusses and analyzes current news events and pressing political issues. Our analyses are guided by humanism and political progressivism. Each news story we cover is supplemented with thought-provoking, fact-based commentary that aims for the highest level of objectivity. #HumanistReport #KamalaHarris #MichaelMoore #2024Election #Trump Transcript 0:04 the polls are expectedly tightening as we get closer and closer to election day and a lot of people are now making their predictions for example Professor Alan lickman who is admittedly very divisive just made his prediction last month using the 13 keys that he's used forever and he determined that kamla Harris is the favorite to win the presidency now I understand if people are apprehensive about him but he does have an undeniably good track record and if you listen to some of the interviews that he was doing back in 2016 some of the things that he was saying about Donald Trump were spot on and not a lot of people heard those things in mainstream media but he was one of few people saying it so he predicted that K La Harris is going to win for what it's worth but there are other people making predictions and you could seek out those people but the one that I want to focus on in particular is one that I find the most valuable the prediction of filmmaker Michael Moore and I value his predictions because even 1:00 though he doesn't have some system or you know he's not overly technical or scientific he has such a good read on things and he's one of the few people to predict the 2016 election accurately and then he went on to accurately say that Biden would win back in 2020 so he's somebody who I absolutely respect because I think that he he has a good gut instinct and on top of that he bases his predictions on things that matter that others don't necessarily pick up on so he published a piece in substack where he predicts that kamla Harris is going to win the 2024 presidency and he says that Trump is going to lose because his path to Victory is so much more narrow than Harris's and he even goes so far as to say that his gut tells him that there's going to be an uprising in women turning out to vote that could lead to a Harris Landslide although having said that though he does have a couple of caveats but before we get to what he says specifically I'm going to play a CNN clip for you he shares his 2:00 reasoning I honestly think we're going to have one of our largest turnouts ever I don't think that many people are going to stay home I certainly hope not uh because of everything that's at stake but for this happens every time Democrats because Democrats they're such a frightened group of people it's it's I still I mean people they still think that Trump is going to win this is kind of shocking to me like don't you live with people are do are you not a A Ware that there's going to be a tsunami of women voting between now on Election Day that that they were told 2 and A2 years ago that they no longer control their own bodies they no longer have a say if they get pregnant they an unplanned pregnancy the law now is that in many of our states that you have to have that baby and and if we have to do whatever we have to do sort of the legal version of strapping you down to the table until 3:00 you birth that baby then so be it that's the law of the land now and and and anybody who thinks that women are going to stay home that women are going to tolerate this and put do you not know any women do you not live with a woman do you is you is there a nextdoor neighbor is there somebody you could just go ask them so what do you think about my gender here my my gender nobody can tell me what to do with with my body and maybe some people should I'm just saying but seriously so to him this election is going to be decided by women namely because of roie Wade being overturned now to her credit KLA Harris is so much better at talking about this issue than Joe Biden and she could get a boost because of it I mean if you go back to some of what Biden said about this issue sure he was vocalizing support for codifying roie Wade but he seemed genuinely disin Ed in the subject 4:00 and couldn't really provide any examples that demonstrate how disastrous this decision by the Supreme Court was so Kam Harris is much much better on this issue than Biden and I don't think that Michael Moore is wrong to think that the prospect of codifying roie Wade might drive up turnout because this is generally what we've seen you know we saw it in 2022 and subsequent special elections have kind of shown how powerful this issue is it is a galvanizing issue with that being said the the election is still very close in swing States according to polls and here's the thing if they're off by even a point in either direction the results could be drastically different but I want you to listen to CNN analyst Harry anten who's going to explain the difference in polling discrepancies between 2020 and 2022 elections and I think that that's going to give us some insight about what to expect in 2024 how confident should anyone on Earth feel that these numbers would actually stick okay so I can consistently say this race 5:00 is too close to call so I decided to go back through history okay and this to me says everything how much do the state poll averages Miss by all right the average error since 1972 in the close races in those Battleground States we've been looking at 3.4 points 3.4 points every single state all seven of those key Battleground states are within 3.4 points what's the chance for an even larger error you know we talk about the margin of error right so what is that 95% confidence interval what is that true margin of error 5% of errors in State polling averages are off by more off by more than 9.4 points these Battleground states are well within that I want you to remember this number because the bottom line is this race is going to be too close to call almost certainly all the way till election day it's definitely going to be within this interval and it's most likely going to be within this interval so the bottom 6:00 line is the State polling averages tell us what it tells us is it's just a race that is too close to call maybe one can has a slight advantage over the other one but the bottom line is it is way too close to call and it will remain so superimpose all of this really important information that you just gave us on the electral map yeah okay so let's say the polls are exactly right if the polls are exactly right kamla Harris gets 276 electoral votes to Donald Trump's 262 because she carries those great lake Battleground States despite losing North Carol Ina Georgia and Arizona but let's say we have a polling Miss like we had in 2020 what happens then well then Donald Trump wins the election in a blowout with 312 electoral votes because he carries all these Great Lake Battleground States plus Nevada plus the other states he was leading in Arizona North Carolina and Georgia but 2020 is just one election what happens if we have a polling Miss like 2022 well in that particular case now the winner has flipped again and kamla Harris wins in a blowout with 319 electoral votes because 7:01 she retakes those great lake Battleground States carries North Carolina Georgia and Arizona in other words 2020 pollsters underestimated Republicans and 2022 pollsters underestimated Democrats now between those two elections ask yourself what changed well obviously roie Wade was overturned so odds are if the polls are incorrect again and they are underestimating one party we can reasonably deduce that they're likely underestimating Democrats as was the case in 2022 because of row now there's also a lot of polling experts who say that the markets the polling markets that is they're being flooded with more junk poles that skewed towards Republicans that seem to be giving Trump a boost now we'll have to wait to see if that bears out when the results actually come in but it seems like these polls disproportionately favor Republicans I don't know if that's purposefully or if they're just bad polls but either way I don't think that it is unreasonable to think that maybe kamla and Democrats are 8:00 being underestimated in these polls so Michael Moore I think has a good reason to believe that women are going to drive up turn out in 2024 since they've turned out in large numbers in 2022 and subsequent special elections but still this prediction hinges basically on him disregarding the polls to an extent at least right I mean the polls still show that KLA Harris would win narrowly but he's saying she'll win and Trump could lose in a landslide so if he does end up being right then I Feel Like There's No Going Back Michael Moore is the best predictor in American politics when it comes to elections but again he has to disregard polls to at least a small extent so he's going to address that in the following clip when you look at the polls when you look at what you're seeing in these all important States including Michigan which you talk a lot about do you do you feel do you not put redance in those 9:00 polls that show what is a dead heat here I don't think it's a dead heat I I think and I'm not saying I don't put Credence in them but I'll just go back to the morning of Election Day 2016 on the front page of the New York Times where according to their latest poll uh said that um uh Hillary quote has an 85% chance of winning today's election Trump only has a 15% chance that was the morning of the election all right no I don't think people should be running their lives based on these polls they I think polls that are polling people on the issues are probably more accurate but on on the candidate itself I think what I'm concerned I'll give you an example because you mentioned uh you know uh there are those Democrats trying to get her to you know tone it down you know that's something women have been told for decades you know now now you better tone that 10:01 down yeah that's she the reason she's so Progressive because she believes in a woman's right to choose she believes that 14-year-old should not be able to take an AR-15 into a school and she's going to ban these assault rifles that used to be banned that Republicans you actually used to vote in favor of the assault weapons baned 30 years ago now all you go down all her positions and they line up exactly with where the majority of Americans are at the majority of Americans believe climate change is real the majority of Americans uh uh believe the minimum wage is too low I'll be honest this is where he starts to lose me because I don't think that this argument is as strong as the previous argument that we heard of course polls aren't gospel and they don't translate into actual votes but kamla Harris is not a progressive even though the electorate might perceive her to be a progressive but the same argument that he's making about Americans being aligned with her on policy could have been made about 11:01 Hillary Clinton as well I mean sure she was deeply unpopular as a candidate but she still supports a lot of the policies that Comm supports $12 an hour minimum wage thankfully Harris is at 15 but also Hillary Clinton said that climate change is real but she's still lost and it's because even though Americans might agree more with Democrats on policy they don't necessarily vote based on policy they vote mostly based on Vibes and that might sound condescending to say but elections have kind of shown that that's how a lot of Americans vote not all of them but a lot of them namely undecided voters who are going to determine the outcome of the election so I think that that is a weaker argument for him to make but to be fair his reasoning about women driving turnout because of row is actually sound and I think he's on to something but he does have a very important caveat that we have to touch on so he says that things could still go south for Kam Harris because he says that Biden's complicity with Israel's genocide in Gaza has absolutely suppressed turnout in States like 12:00 Michigan and he would know because he is in the state of Michigan and he also says that Harris could actually demoralize the Democratic party's base even more if she continues to go down this path where she runs to the right now he says runs to the center in the article that we're about to read but she's running to the right she's adopting the Republican policy on the border she's adopting the Republican policy on uh fracking so I would say that him characterizing this as her running to the center is not correct she's running to the right we'll call it what it is but nonetheless here's his reasoning he writes another mistake that could be made in these final four to five weeks is if Harris is advised by her wealthy donors to shun the left and drop her more Progressive positions in favor of a move to the center this too could reduce or depress the vote for Harris especially among the base I know many of you don't want to hear that but I'm just trying to warn you that the actions of party hacks and pundits have consequences and he goes on to say what a lot of us on the left have been saying 13:00 for a very long time that she needs to focus on non voters as opposed to moderate Republicans because there's not that many moderate Republicans left in actuality the party has gone off the deep end and so whatever moderate Republicans still exist they're either voting for Donald Trump anyway and sucking it up or they're already choosing to opt for KLA Harris as an anti-trump vote but those people are a very small portion of the population whereas the potential non-voters that she could mobilize could make all the difference here and I think that if a campaign made an effort to appeal to some of these people who have never voted that could be all the difference right so he's making a prediction here but he's cautious which I respect and he notes that things can still go south now Harris just proposed a plan to have Medicare cover the cost of Long-Term Care for Seniors I think that that right there is a great move that is much more effective than a rally with Li Cheney for example where she 14:00 Praises Liz Cheney's dad who's a war criminal who should be in prison right now those kinds of things are bad they turn off the Bas but I will say there's a difference between turning off the Bas and angering the base by not doing what they want or not appealing to them and turning off the Bas by basically spitting in their faces that is what Hillary Clinton did in 2016 and it costed her dearly now Biden did make a lot of overt appeals to the left after that bitter primary between him and Bernie Sanders in 2020 and he won Harris is angering the Bas like Biden by not listening to what the base wants on Gaza policy but she's not going out of her way to spit in the faces of leftists so that's one thing that she has going for her although they still will be pissed off we still are pissed off if you don't do what we say you should do on Gaza especially if the rest of the country agrees with us but I mean that's Michael Morris prediction I don't know if I'm as 15:01 optimistic as he is but I do appreciate him making this prediction and I feel better about the election because he said this because again Michael Moore has a fantastic track record he predicted Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020 so if he feels confident that Biden or excuse me that Harris is going to win this election then I feel a little bit more confident at least but you know we're not going to know until election day nobody knows uh what's going to happen nobody has a crystal ball except for Kyle kolinsky Corney joke I've said it before but we just we don't know and with the polls being this close I think that these kinds of predictions are important because there's a lot of factors that a lot of us won't know about or even contemplate until election day takes place where we can look at the numbers and see the results but you know all we can do is speculate and I think that that take from Michael Moore makes sense it sound and you know if you're panicking maybe this will help reassure you a little bit as it did for me 16:00 you think you just fell out of a coconut tree treee they not like us on the and you think you just fell out of a coconut tree

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