Putin's facade crumbles as allies refuse to back war campaign
Times Radio
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Oct 23, 2024
“Putin is trying to create this idea that he is very important and that Russia still has all these friends around the world… but it’s a pretty mixed bag.”
Putin’s closest allies, the BRICS, will not provide weapons to support his campaign in Ukraine, says former BBC senior Russian analyst Stephen Dalziel.
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Transcript
- 0:00
- but if you put Russia and Iran and North
- Korea together you've got effectively
- three Pariah States um and India is
- playing a very clever game India is
- certainly not helping the Russian war
- effort and India doesn't want to queer
- its pitch with the with the rest of the
- world um any more than China does of
- course China um in the relationship with
- Russia China is definitely the senior
- partner although Mr Putin hates to hear
- that and China certainly doesn't want to
- be seen to be helping Russia to the
- extent where it might lose its Western
- Market market so individually the the
- the countries they may go along to this
- Summit and give Mr Putin a little bit of
- credence in one sense but the amount of
- help they're actually giving to the war
- effort is is really limited to Iran and
- and North Korea is not there anyway
- President Putin has welcomed the leaders
- of China India and turkey to an
- international Summit intended to signal
- that Western attempts to isolate Russia
- have failed it's a gathering of the
- so-called bricks Nations which initially
- 1:00
- brought together Brazil Russia India and
- China but now involves South Africa and
- other countries and it's the biggest
- Gathering of world leaders in Russia
- since it invaded Ukraine more than two
- years ago President Putin denied the
- Gathering was a gesture of defiance to
- the West bricks was never built against
- anyone Indian Prime Minister narenda
- 1:21
- Modi said a very good phrase he said
- 1:25
- recently that bricks is not anti-western
- 1:27
- it's just
- 1:28
- non-western well that was a translation
- 1:31
- obviously President Putin speaking
- 1:33
- earlier Steven DL is a former senior
- 1:36
- Russian Affairs Analyst at the BBC World
- 1:38
- Service hello Stephen good evening Carol
- 1:41
- good to see you again well good to speak
- 1:43
- to you and um we've got these pictures
- 1:46
- that we've all been able to see of
- 1:48
- President Putin shaking hands with
- 1:50
- President X and so on how significant do
- 1:52
- you think this Gathering
- 1:54
- is well let me quote the man who came up
- 1:58
- with the acronym originally um Jim
- 2:00
- O'Neal the former chairman of Goldman
- 2:02
- Sachs now Lord O'Neal he was the one who
- 2:04
- came up with this acronym BR I brick um
- 2:08
- around about the turn of the century uh
- 2:10
- it's got an S added because South Africa
- 2:12
- was joined but that stood for Brazil
- 2:13
- Russia India China South Africa and Jim
- 2:17
- O'Neal in the last two days has said
- 2:20
- bricks don't matter he said he said it
- 2:23
- it really doesn't so um you know Mr
- 2:26
- Putin is trying to create this idea that
- 2:29
- he's know he's very important and uh
- 2:32
- he's Russia still has a lot of friends
- 2:33
- around around the world um but if you
- 2:36
- think that there are officially 10
- 2:39
- members now of bricks it's interesting
- 2:41
- that the Russians took the acronym
- 2:43
- bricks the first four brick it would
- 2:45
- have worked in Russian but um South
- 2:47
- Africa doesn't begin with an s in
- 2:48
- Russian it begins with a u but anyway um
- 2:51
- so you had the five uh they've now been
- 2:53
- added to with Iran the United Arab Arab
- 2:56
- Emirates Ethiopia Egypt and Saudi Arabia
- 3:00
- um now it's a it's a pretty mixed bag as
- 3:02
- you mentioned in your introduction
- 3:04
- Turkey um president erdogan is there as
- 3:06
- well um but that's I think because he
- 3:09
- likes to cause trouble or just be seen
- 3:12
- to be alongside other dictators such as
- 3:15
- Putin um but he's not actually a member
- 3:18
- of of bricks um so it's it's just it's a
- 3:22
- peculiar organization um it's its
- 3:26
- members account for 45% of the world
- 3:28
- population although
- 3:30
- between them they account for 28% of the
- 3:32
- world economy and the idea is it's meant
- 3:34
- to be an alternative to challenge the G7
- 3:38
- um of course the seven most advanced
- 3:40
- industrialized nations in the world um
- 3:43
- but if we go back to Jim O'Neal you know
- 3:45
- I I think he thinks it's not really much
- 3:47
- of a challenger but what is significant
- 3:50
- isn't it is that um Russia has these
- 3:54
- pretty big allies who are still prepared
- 3:57
- to deal with him to talk to him and of
- 3:59
- course they're helping his war effort I
- 4:01
- mean we know that um Iranian drones have
- 4:03
- been used against Ukraine um of course
- 4:06
- we've recently seen the evidence of the
- 4:08
- involvement of North Korea but China is
- 4:11
- also um thought to be providing military
- 4:14
- equipment and it is President Putin
- 4:16
- isn't it saying well look um okay if um
- 4:20
- the United States and and Europe are
- 4:22
- going to broadly isolate me that's not
- 4:24
- going to work because I've I've got
- 4:26
- these other huge powerful Nations that
- 4:28
- are still prep prepared to do deals well
- 4:32
- the ones who are prepared to do deals
- 4:33
- over the war as you really mentioned I
- 4:35
- mean North Korea has been sending
- 4:37
- weaponry and we now believe could be
- 4:40
- about to send up to 10,000 troops to the
- 4:43
- front line in Ukraine um Iran of course
- 4:47
- almost from the beginning of the war has
- 4:49
- been sending drones in particular um the
- 4:53
- Chinese whether they're sending Weaponry
- 4:55
- it's not ex we don't know for sure that
- 4:58
- the the chines is largely sitting on the
- 5:00
- fence as far as the war in Ukraine goes
- 5:03
- um but if you put Russia and Iran and
- 5:07
- North Korea together you've got
- 5:08
- effectively three Pariah States um and
- 5:12
- India is playing a very clever game
- 5:14
- India is certainly not helping the
- 5:15
- Russian war effort and India doesn't
- 5:17
- want to queer its pitch with the with
- 5:18
- the rest of the world um any more than
- 5:21
- China does of course China um in the
- 5:23
- relationship with Russia China is
- 5:25
- definitely the senior partner although
- 5:27
- Mr Putin hates to hear that and China
- 5:29
- certainly doesn't want to be seen to be
- 5:31
- helping Russia to the extent where it
- 5:32
- might lose its Western markets so
- 5:35
- individually the the the countries they
- 5:37
- may go along to this Summit and give Mr
- 5:40
- Putin a little bit of credence in one
- 5:42
- sense but the amount of help they're
- 5:44
- actually giving to the war effort is is
- 5:46
- really limited to Iran and and North
- 5:48
- Korea is not there anyway but it does
- 5:51
- does it not um allow President Putin to
- 5:55
- build better trading links because um
- 5:59
- we've got uh the US and the EU imposing
- 6:02
- all these sanctions it certainly does
- 6:04
- seem when you look at the Russian
- 6:06
- economy is that they're finding other
- 6:08
- ways to get hold of most of the um
- 6:10
- essential Goods that they need in the
- 6:12
- country even if they're not directly
- 6:14
- providing military supplies for the war
- 6:16
- in Ukraine um they do seem to be helping
- 6:21
- uh helping the Russians to get round
- 6:23
- those
- 6:24
- sanctions to a certain extent Carol
- 6:27
- you're right but again if we look down
- 6:28
- the list of the 10 countries um the
- 6:30
- amount of trade uh in global terms is is
- 6:34
- still pretty small um India is
- 6:36
- significant here because India has been
- 6:37
- buying a lot more Russian oil and gas um
- 6:40
- so they are getting significant sums of
- 6:42
- money from India um but the idea one of
- 6:46
- the ideas that Putin really pushes
- 6:49
- Behind the Bricks countries is that they
- 6:52
- together would work out a way where they
- 6:55
- could deal not in dollars that's that's
- 6:58
- you know much of the world economy is
- 7:00
- still based on on the US dollar um and
- 7:02
- the bricks countries are not going to
- 7:05
- change that uh so so there you know
- 7:08
- that's a bit of a fig leaf and if you
- 7:10
- look behind it you know you find that
- 7:11
- actually um that's something that's not
- 7:13
- going to work and the rest of the world
- 7:15
- is still going to be dealing in mainly
- 7:16
- in dollars um Jeff's got in touch and he
- 7:18
- says several of our long-standing allies
- 7:20
- are at this meeting um I'm assuming that
- 7:23
- he's um talking about countries like uh
- 7:26
- India um who is a long-standing Alli
- 7:29
- turkey with whom we do at least um we
- 7:32
- work alongside them in NATO and so on he
- 7:35
- says if you don't think that's a cause
- 7:37
- for concern Stephen uh not quite sure
- 7:40
- what sort of diplomacy you're studying I
- 7:42
- mean this will be a matter of concern
- 7:44
- won't it um to countries that are trying
- 7:46
- to um economically as well as
- 7:49
- diplomatically isolate Russia if you've
- 7:52
- got big important economies and
- 7:55
- countries like India like turkey um as
- 7:58
- well as of course China with it's huge
- 8:00
- spending power um that are there and
- 8:02
- doing deals with Putin Brazil at one
- 8:05
- stage we seem to be wanting to um extend
- 8:07
- our trade ties with
- 8:09
- Brazil yeah I can see his point but I
- 8:12
- would still say that um to to me far
- 8:16
- more important is is is the wider
- 8:18
- economy the the the dollar-based economy
- 8:21
- um and it's the fact that India and
- 8:23
- China don't want to upset the West too
- 8:26
- much um and turkey yes turkey is there
- 8:28
- how much
- 8:30
- turkey will actually be doing as a
- 8:31
- result of this um I'm I'm very skeptical
- 8:34
- I must admit so you know Saudi Arabia is
- 8:37
- there as well um but Saudi Arabia is not
- 8:39
- going to stop selling oil to the West um
- 8:41
- you know we're its better customer um
- 8:43
- symbolism is always very important isn't
- 8:45
- it um to President Putin and he'll love
- 8:48
- to be there rubbing shoulders with other
- 8:51
- world leaders won't he and um waste no
- 8:53
- opportunity to put those pictures out
- 8:55
- you're absolutely right and in that
- 8:58
- sense I think the it's it's the domestic
- 9:00
- audience that uh are the real Target
- 9:02
- here you know he can go on Russian TV as
- 9:04
- no doubt he has been today and will be
- 9:06
- the next few days and you know showing
- 9:08
- his people look look how important I am
- 9:11
- um I it's very interesting um to take
- 9:13
- one Western example um of a newspaper I
- 9:15
- greatly respect from abroad I won't say
- 9:17
- anything from this country from The
- 9:19
- Washington Post for example they've been
- 9:21
- saying absolutely nothing about this
- 9:23
- meeting um and the Washington Post are
- 9:25
- normally yes they're okay there's a lot
- 9:27
- of coverage of the coming forthcoming us
- 9:29
- election but if the Washington Post
- 9:31
- don't think it's that important to uh to
- 9:33
- to say much about this at this stage um
- 9:36
- I think that's an indication that the
- 9:38
- West is is not it's really not too
- 9:40
- worried the other thing is of course um
- 9:42
- you know rather like the Shanghai
- 9:44
- cooperation organ organization meeting
- 9:47
- last week that took place in Pakistan
- 9:49
- that's another organization that the
- 9:51
- Russians and others are trying to show
- 9:53
- as an alternative to the West um but
- 9:56
- you've got these countries in it like
- 9:58
- Russia uh and and China which which are
- 10:00
- dictatorships who are not used to doing
- 10:03
- things democratically discussing things
- 10:05
- with the other people at the meeting and
- 10:07
- and coming to a a conclusion as a result
- 10:10
- of that you know these are countries
- 10:11
- that are used to telling people what
- 10:13
- they want and expecting to get it so you
- 10:15
- you you know these are not really
- 10:17
- Democratic organizations either the SE
- 10:20
- or bricks and I think that that is a
- 10:22
- major failing when it comes to any
- 10:25
- chance to really to change things and to
- 10:27
- stand up as a genuine alternative to
- 10:29
- West Wern organizations um just let me
- 10:31
- ask you about one other story that's um
- 10:33
- just broken in the last few minutes um
- 10:35
- the Prime Minister um sakama saying
- 10:38
- Russia risks Global Food Security in
- 10:41
- Ukraine um Kama who's um heading off to
- 10:43
- that big uh Common Wealth Summit uh
- 10:47
- saying that Russia has stepped up
- 10:48
- attacks on Ukrainian ports in the Black
- 10:50
- Sea delaying the export of agricultural
- 10:53
- produce including Aid intended for
- 10:56
- Palestinians although of course getting
- 10:58
- them uh through to them is a is another
- 11:00
- whole Factor um but we're hearing that
- during several days of strikes in the
- last week or so Russian weapons have hit
- at least four cargo ships including one
- carrying 6,000 tons of corn do you see
- this as a a new tactic at least in the
- war Stephen I I it sounds like a renewed
- tactic because of course it's something
- they were doing fairly early on um
- Ukraine has been incredibly successful
- in um beting effectively beating the the
- Russian Black Sea Fleet the Russian Navy
- um they they've pushed them back to
- ports in in Russia because the sea
- drones and and other attacks from
- Ukraine have sunk a number of their
- vessels um but that is particularly
- worrying if we remember back in the
- early days of the war indeed the first
- few months um there was a lot of
- negotiation to allow Ukrainian grain to
- be exported um and with the Lesser
- influence of the Russian Navy in the
- Black Sea um that's been far more
- successful in recent months if the
- Russian if the Russians are now stepping
- 12:01
- up a tax on what is civilian shipping um
- then that is very worrying it's as if
- they've gone back to that attempt to
- create a world food crisis by U because
- a lot of countries um and in the global
- South are dependent on Ukrainian grain
- um that that is a way of of taking the
- the the fight to another level and that
- is that that we must watch what happens
- but if that is Contin over the next days
- and weeks that is that is very worrying
- Steven Dell um former senior Russian
- Affairs Analyst at the BBC World Service
- really good to speak to you thank you so
- much thank you k
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