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THE UKRAINE WAR MY VIEW! ... LACK OF SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE IS CRIMINAL Times Radio: Putin losing 1500 soldiers a day in final throw of the dice \| Frontline PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFSfUWSR-EI Peter Burgess COMMENTARY It bothers me that support for Ukraine is so muted. There are onlu a few who are 'native Americams'. Most of us are people who have migrated to the United States for a variety of persoanl reasons. In my case I migrated to the United States in the 1960s for rather simplistic economic reasons. I was able to earn more in one month in the USA than I could in Europe in a year! The calculus was not very complex. Peter Burgess
Putin losing 1500 soldiers a day in final throw of the dice \| Frontline Times Radio 1.07M subscribers Nov 17, 2024 Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security This week’s frontline experts examine how Putin is responding to the impending Trump administration, and what Trump’s policy towards Russia might be in the first days and weeks of his administration. Sean Bell, Former RAF fighter pilot Mitchell Reiss, former American diplomat Amy Knight, Russia expert Michael Bociurkiv, Global affairs analyst Join this channel to get access to perks - / @listentotimesradio 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Transcript 0:00 welcome to Frontline for times radio I'm James Hansen and today I'm delighted to be joined once again by the former fighter pilot military analyst and co-host of the red Matrix podcast Shan Bell Shan always a pleasure welcome back thank you very much James good to be here I mean we have so much to talk about today I suppose the first place to begin is what is your assessment of the situation on the front line in Ukraine at the moment yeah it's good morning James it's a it's a difficult time I think for Ukraine it's been fallen off the media Horizons because of the US elections and the like but bluntly Ukraine is on the black back foot so there's sort of two main areas really the donbass which we've been talking about seems to be one of the big focuses for President Putin and although progress by Russia has slowed they are still making steady progress towards uh pushing their boundary right out to the boundary of the dbass the second one of course is you'll remember the K incursion by Ukraine again not much talked about that if you look at the about the maps now it looks like 1:02 Russia's pushed out Ukraine out of about a third of that territory um and there are reports that Russia's got up to 50,000 troops now moved into the area possibly augmented by those North Korean troops we've been talking about and potentially um some conscripts that shouldn't be sent to the front line but it's a moot point if they're going to defend Russia rather than going on the offense in Ukraine I think the one caveat though I think trying to put some context around this is that the chief of the defense staff in the UK um announced this week that the average L of Russians that were casualties lost their lives or casualties over the last uh month has been about 1,500 a day now that is an enormous number if you remember the battle for bahmut last year um that was described afterwards as the bloodiest battle since World War II and at that time it was about 00 day being lost so um this Advance by Russia is taking an 2:05 awful toll on the forces and you have to conclude from military perspective that this is a big surge of push trying to achieve Russia's objectives by the 20th of January what happens on the 20th of January is the inauguration of the next president Trump has said he's going to solve the um the conflict in 24 hours and undoubtedly Putin wants to be in a position by that stage where he could if he wanted to be prepared to negotiate well we'll definitely come on to the implications of of a second Trump presidency in a moment just on the Russian casualty rates I mean it's been very high for a long time now and people have been questioning whether it is sustainable for a long time but does the fact that we are now seeing you know North Korean troops fighting alongside the Russians in KK for instance does that speak to the fact that maybe Putin inevitably is going to have to look again at mobilization if this casualty rate continues yeah I think there's two different ways of looking at it James I mean if you looking at the way you've just described if you saw this as a it's 3:06 going to last another couple of years then the rate of casualties is not sustainable uh President Putin has tried using the Varner group in the past um that turned on him he's tried using convicts but the supply of those has dried up he's tried using mercenaries I.E offering very attractive packages to mercenaries the trouble is is that most mercenaries don't actually want to die they're happy to fight and not die and B accounts a huge number of them are dying so they they've suddenly the recruitment rate for that has dried up um they've managed to find some forces in North Korea that might sound like the answer to the maiden's prayer but there's all sorts of reasons why that might not work well not least of which North Korean forces they haven't been fighting since 19 you know the 1940s and 50s um and by all accounts there's a language problem they haven't been properly trained and even there there have been lots of reports and actually these guys are not well fed either there the last time we 4:01 one of the soldiers North Korea tried to escape I think it was 2017 he was shot as he made his way across the border several times that managed to escape into South Korea the surgeons operated on him then but found I think it's a 27 CM intestinal worm and a whole load of parasites and part of that is just part of poor feeding um for their troops where most troops around the world are really wellfed because you want them to be fit and well and this was Elite forces so it's only one person but it does talk to the fact that North Korea may well have provided numbers but whether those are effective forces and it's very likely although they may serve with pride for their North Korean leader it's quite likely many of them will not return home on their feet what about losses in a different sense for Russia what about equipment supplies even tank losses yeah that that that is really interesting so um when when we look at people um the question really is Russia is huge it could just mobilize more and more people it's much bigger than 5:03 Ukraine and Ukraine by counts is struggling the problem with that of course is already the mothers of some of those soldiers are starting to raise petitions against the Russian leader and he knows it would be deeply sensitive if he was to mobilize more people the challenge of course then around equipment is that they've lost a lot of equipment now it depends on which metric you look let's use tanks as an example because that's quite an emotive one b accounts they've lost well over 3,000 of their main battle tanks that's a huge number but if you look at if you went to Wikipedia and saw how many tanks that Russia has it's something like 13 or 14,000 so again you look at it and go well that's only a very small percentage when you actually analyze the numbers a bit closer though what Russia has done is that ever since World War II if the tanks run out of life and they're being replaced they don't melt them down they put them into storage and what Russia's been doing is pulling them out of 6:00 storage again so it's been bringing out of storage t-54 55s and t-62s the number largely relat to the year it came into service um so these are very old tanks now do they stop bullets still yes can you still drive around the battlefield with them yes do they have still have a gun yes the challenge of course is though that they're not modern so first of all they don't withstand anti-tank weapons very well secondly it's very difficult to fire on the move because they don't have any of the technology there they also cook off so it's more it's more easy to wipe them out and of course they don't operate well in the high-tech battle space so they're not very effective as modern tanks and what Russia has been hurting with is most of its modern tanks have been taken out they are still providing more but the rate of reduction is Tiny compared to the the rate to which they're losing them that will have a long-term impact and for you James I think part of for the for the listeners um why it's key is because when I was serving one of the driving 7:00 threats for our nation was Russia and the other one was China we were scared about what Russia's capability was now Russia has seen such a um a destruction of its military capability that bluntly from an equipment perspective it doesn't pose the same threat to the West as it did at the start of the war and although its soldiers are battle hardened it doesn't have the equipment now will it get the equipment back again yes it will most analysts believe it'll be at least five years potentially 10 years before it's restocked but given they got such a bloody nose fighting against Ukraine you'd have to think that it would think twice before taking on a western power like NATO um because we our hidden equipment is so much better Donald Trump winning the US presidential election he'll of course be inaugurated as you say on the 20th of January 2025 what do you think his approach to Ukraine will be there has been so much speculation that he will be more 8:00 hostile to Ukraine and more hostile to continuing aid for Ukraine and yet other people actually saying that his call with zinsky last week went relatively well and that maybe you know we shouldn't take him at his word when it comes to you know ending the war within 24 hours what is your reading of what he is likely to do it's fascinating isn't it what a character um I think you have to look back in history so when he did his first term three things that struck to mind was he was going to build a wall continuous wall to keep along the border with Mexico to keep everybody out he was going to bring peace to the Middle East and he was going to deal with the North Korean leader to my memory not one of those things was actually seen through so there are but what it does do is give a clear example of Trump's intent and whilst his intent around NATO for example has been you know people shouldn't live under the uh umbrella of security that America provides people should pay for it and actually we've seen um over the last few years it's gone from only a third of NATO countries actually paying their 2% to actually 2third now so that rhetoric has actually 9:03 shaken the tree a bit when it comes to Ukraine though I think uh president zlinsky will be probably rightly concerned about where this is going because Trump in his heart is about America first now every every country looks after its own interests first but America puts a huge amount of resource towards Ukraine and undoubtedly president Trump's view is that he's simply backing a war that is not winnable and therefore or it he wants to bring it to an end he's famous he said in 24 hours the problem is that you can't uh president Trump you either broker a piece or you impose a peace deal um you only broker it if both sides are willing to talk but they need somebody to act as an intermediary well it's pretty evident to me that neither side is ready to talk or you impose now how does America impose a solution it can probably do it over Ukraine because it has the supplies of weapons and money and therefore those Ukraine would struggle but how would it impose a solution with President Putin and it's 10:05 not entirely clear I think one of the things that if if Putin's objective is to get as far as he can by the 20th of January he would almost certainly want to clear the KK region of any ukrainians because he wouldn't want to negotiate with Ukraine still holding some Russian land but actually if Putin has largely achieved his objectives of land he'll never give that land up but if you were now Putin what would you want in return for stopping the war probably lifting the sanctions and you know probably making sure Ukraine doesn't join NATO and I suspect Trump will love to do a deal and there might be therefore the grounds for actually imposing a solution but I as a military guy that scares me bluntly because um you know the it's like putting a sticky plaster over somebody with a heart attack 11:00 it might look good but it doesn't solve the problem and the danger is there that you reward President Putin for his aggression and therefore where next also what message does that send to the Iran leadership to the North Korean leadership and most importantly to China who are looking at Taiwan wondering what they should do about that I think there are some grave implications for National Security um but it does look like Trump inexorably is looking it's more even his even his AIDS are talking about our conversation is less about territory and more about peace I mean it's really interesting because on on yesterday's episode of front line I was speaking to Ambassador Mitchell ree a former US state department official who who actually was more optimistic about what a trump presidency might mean for Ukraine and he argued that you know Trump would be able to bring Russia to the negotiating table by saying look if you don't come to the negotiating table I will arm Ukraine to the teeth and because it's Trump they will take that threat more seriously what do you make of that there's definitely an option of 12:04 uh I mean I do think carratt and stick you know the the carrots trunk can offer is around you know uh readmitting Russia to the global world order the stick is undoubtedly arming uh Ukraine to the teeth the problem with that practically is that um as we've discussed on your podcast before one of the things the West is reluctant to do is to provide its state of the arc weapons to Ukraine uh bluntly because there is still corruption there the danger is some of these weapons will fall into Russian hands and technology is the West asimetric Advantage a good example of that is the stormshadow missile you know it's a very very effective missile but it's about 30 years old we as a nation bought a thousand of them we were going to uh we've used about 200 we only think we need three or 400 so we're going to upgrade those to Modern 21st century standard but we had a load of them that we were either going to pay industry to decommission or we gave them to Ukraine and even if they fell into enemy hands 13:05 it's 30-y old technology it didn't matter if we were to absolutely arm Ukraine to the teeth which we could do um it would provide a phenomenal capability to Ukraine's hands in addition and we bluntly we should be talking about a no-fly zone because I think that's the next thing that the West could do that would say you know there's AR we're not intending to attack anywhere in Russia but we are going to to stop you attacking into Ukraine and there are steps I think that America could do to make life a lot more difficult for President Putin but there are all sorts of security issues as I've outlined and of course um to date President Putin has been very effective at shaking that nuclear um saber rattling that threatening you know Armageddon um I'm I'm a veteran of the Cold War and we live with that every day 30 years we haven't been talking about it people get scared I think Trump will be much more robust about that because he was very robust with the North Korean 14:02 leader and I think he'll call uh um Putin's Bluff on that one so it won't be as effective and therefore Trump will stand sh you know eye to eye with him and say look if you if you do continue with this we are we have we are forced to to up the anti with you and therefore if you've achieved what you've want to achieve which it looks like uh for now it looks like Putin might have done then there may be a deal to be done I think the other the other side to that coin though James is also if you're zalinski you'll be spitting tax at that conversation but you might not have much choice but what you will be interested in is how do I rebuild my country where does the investment come to rebuild and secondly where's the security guarantees because after the Budapest memo of 1994 when the US the UK and Russia all guaranteed the security um of Ukraine if it gave up its nuclear weapons they won't be happy with a signature because frankly Putin ripped that up and in he 15:02 went there'll have to be something far more tangible if it's not NATO what is it and there has been some talk about United Nations buffer zones potentially bilateral or trilateral arrangements with British or American bases somewhere in Ukraine all of that is to be negotiated but there's it's a lot more than simply the peace it's also how do you create an enduring piece and this isn't just one step that Putin is going to repeat once he's um refurbished his military capability I'm delighted to be joined by Ambassador Mitchell ree a former director of policy planning at the US state department and a former US Special Envoy to Northern Ireland Ambassador welcome to Front Line great thank you very much happy to be here wanted to start by talking about the events of the past week it's hard to ignore the outcome of the US presidential election there has been so much said about what Donald Trump may or may not do with regards American support for Ukraine what is your sense how he's likely to approach things well I think it's always prudent to be very cautious 16:06 in interpreting anything that President Trump says especially on the campaign Trail as gospel uh I think he says a lot of things some of it is simply to test out certain ideas other others are provocative perhaps on purpose on Ukraine he's actually said a lot of things and most of the uh more controversial ones have been reported such as he'll um end the conflict in a day but he's also had a lot more thoughtful comments about it and what it would take to end this terrible conflict and how he believes it should come to a conclusion as soon as possible for the benefit of everyone so so when for example he he said that comment about I could end the war in 24 hours should we discount that I mean it's been widely seen that he is more skeptical about support for Ukraine than the Biden Administration has been or do you think that is purely a bluff and that he may actually turn out to be more supportive of Ukraine than many people think I I think it's actually neither I think he's 17:04 U indicating or signaling if you will by these statements that he believes that he is perhaps uniquely able to bring an end to this conflict I think that he feels that he should have won the Nobel Peace Prize for the Abraham Accords in his first term I think he sees this as a vehicle for him ending a conflict and winning the Nobel Peace Prize something that was given to President Obama but was denied to him so I think that he is actually a little bit more thoughtful about what it's going to take he knows that it takes compromise on both sides uh and as far as the Biden Administration uh let's remember that President Trump actually released uh weapons to Ukraine that the Biden that the Obama administration had prevented including Javelin anti-tank weapons he placed sanctions on Russia when he was president and he opposed Germany's nordstream 2 gas pipeline to Russia because it would make Germany overly 18:01 dependent on uh on Russia for energy security so I think if you look at the full record you'll see that he hasn't exactly been a pushover for Mr Putin I was speaking to someone earlier a times journalist who who covers the war in Ukraine and he said that if this idea of a demilitarized zone would probably at the moment appeal more to Kei than it would to Moscow because Ukraine are anxious they they might be in a mood now to free the front lines because of the advances that the Russia are making but from moscow's point of view they would be more reluctant because as you say Ambassador there is this issue of well who would be patrolling it who would be policing it and if you had say NATO troops in land bordering Russia you can understand why Vladimir Putin would consider that a non-starter well it's it's a trism it's going to take both sides to make compromises if Russia feels that it has the upper hand and doesn't need to compromise now um then it'll continue to pursue the fighting um I think the ukrainians have been remarkably Brave and courageous in 19:05 fending off a much larger uh country um and so uh it's unclear exactly where both sides are psychologically in terms of wanting to end this right now but again it's all on the question of whose terms are going to Prevail who has the greatest amount of Leverage and again here's where the United States uh can come into play president Trump has said that if Putin doesn't agree to compromise he will arm Ukraine to the teeth and he will back them with every all the might that the United States has so again um an issue um where he's probably trying to create some leverage trying to see what the response might be but the truism is it's going to take compromise on both sides and a willingness uh to do that and right now we we don't have that present it's interesting you you say that Trump has hinted that he might be prepared to as you say arm Ukraine to the teeth if if 20:01 Russia is not in a mood to compromise I mean this issue of US military aid to Ukraine is a very live one obviously and Donald Trump Junior shared a post on social media over the weekend that showed president zalinsky of Ukraine with a caption on it saying points of view your 38 days from losing your allowance implying somehow that America might cut off military a to Ukraine what do you make of both Donald Trump Jr sharing such a post but also the issue of whether Trump will continue military aid for Ukraine well uh last I checked Donald Trump Junior doesn't have a position in this Administration he's certainly entitled to his opinion and there are people within the President's Circle who believe that the JD Vance perhaps most notedly um but there are also others who believe that Ukraine's fight is our fight it's Europe's fight uh it's a fight for certain values that we believe in and should be defended and it's it's also a fight that we know that China is 21:00 watching and so it's not just what happens in Ukraine but it's about restoring American deterrence in Asia and across the Middle East because we've seen recently what happens when Iran becomes emboldened and Hamas and has bua go on the Rampage so I think that uh it's again it's a little bit more complicated than just saying your allowance is up and there's one other Factor uh I think the president will be impressed by the fact that 80 to 90% of all American American Aid to Ukraine is actually benefiting American workers and American manufacturers so this actually is something that helps us uh economically in terms of jinning up uh the military uh machine that we need to uh to compete in a dangerous world so again I I just think that we ought to take with a grain of salt a large Shaker of salt perhaps what what president Trump has been saying so far and as ever with any Administration I'm sure there will be some internal division over what the correct approach should be towards 22:02 Ukraine do you think for those who want to continue arming Ukraine do you think the best argument to take to president Trump is almost to put it in that wider geopolitical context that it's in China's interest for Russia to do well that it's in Iran's interest for Ukraine to fail do you think therefore if if it's put in those terms president Trump may be more sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause well I think we've seen that President Trump um is not cut from the same cloth that most American presidents have been since the end of the second world war he he doesn't really believe in the international uh order that the United States constructed and has led uh for the last half century plus I I think he sees uh his his intervention as something more personal and something more transactional so I think the best Arguments for supporting Ukraine are going to be how they can benefit the United States how they can benefit his presidency and again uh if he can broker 23:04 a deal that's sustainable that preserves Ukraine's sovereignty that enhances European security that enhances deterrence in Asia and across the Middle East then I think um he'll feel that he deserves the ELA Peace Prize and guess what he will it sounds almost Ambassador that you are more optimistic about Donald Trump's likely approach to Ukraine than a lot of Ukraine are well um I'd like to be um cautiously optimistic let's put it that way um it doesn't do a lot of good to be pessimistic in life I found um I think that there are arguments as you mentioned that can be made uh for the president and for other people in his administration because you're right there are going to be uh divisions there'll be a wide variety of opinions expressed um but I think that he's also going to want to see the Europeans step up in a major way this was the theme of his first term where um only three 24:02 countries in 2014 uh were hitting the NATO goal of 2% of their GDP now it's 2/3 but but frankly that means a third aren't and 2% doesn't look nearly as sufficient as it did you know 10 years ago given the the international uh environment so I think it's going to be part of a broader conversation he's going to have with the Europeans and of course you then fold in trade and uh it's going to make for a pretty heady cocktail but I am not pessimistic at all I do think that it um that uh the United States will support Ukraine under President Trump but I do think that every war must end and this one is going to end in a negotiated uh Arrangement and I think that he is very well placed to actually help lead that effort and just finally to return to that that point about a potential timeline for a peace agreement or a negotiated settlement of of some kind how long do you think it might take I mean you know okay take it with a pinch of salt When Donald Trump talks about 24 25:05 hours and he can end this war but do you think within the first few months of him taking office we may see a major breakthrough or do you think in a year's time we will still very much be talking about fighting in Ukraine well again it takes two to tango so a lot of it's going to depend on what Russia and uh Ukraine want to do um I think it's possible to have a ceasefire uh within a relatively short period of time certainly within the first six months of the Trump Administration uh then working out the details while that ceas fire is preserved uh could take uh a year or probably longer so I think it may happen in phases if it's going to happen um but I do think it's possible that there should be a ceasefire by the middle of this coming year Ambassador Mitchell ree really appreciate your time thank you so much for joining us today on front line my pleasure thank you very much James and I'm delighted to be joined by the historian and Russia specialist Amy 26:01 Knights who worked for 18 years at the US Library of Congress as a Russia Soviet Affairs specialist and was a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the New York Times has described Amy as the West's foremost scholar of the KGB Amy welcome back to front line Thank you for having me first of all I wonder what you think the reaction in the Kremlin has been to Donald Trump's election Victory last week well it's interesting um it's been quite muted as you know uh President Putin was one of the few world leaders not to call up uh Donald Trump a president-elect Donald Trump on the telephone and congratulate him there were later some rumors that there had been a phone conversation between Putin and Trump but Dimitri pesov uh uh Putin's uh uh publicity person press person uh denied that so I think uh basically that the reaction from the 27:04 Kremlin has been muted for two reasons obviously if they were really happy that Trump uh was elected and they and in my opinion they probably are they can't show it because that would look that that would be bad for both both Putin and Trump because they're going to be first of all negot hopefully there'll be some negotiation um about the Ukraine conflict um and um well then secondly I think actually nobody here and and also in uh in in Russia really knows what to expect from Trump so I don't think it's um I don't think the Kremlin or Putin you know feel really certain about how he's going to behave and let me put it this way if those of us who live in the United States and follow politics closely we don't know what to expect 28:07 then you can imagine you know the Kremlin has the same problem I mean that's a really interesting point and you know there is this sense that Ukraine would have been happier with essentially continuity Biden Administration so maybe camela Harris winning and Moscow might have been happier with the return of Donald Trump but just because it's happier doesn't mean it is necessarily happy and there is still a scenario in which potentially if Vladimir Putin refuses to negotiate about a potential peace settlement or refuses to accept Trump's demands that that Trump may even double down on support for Ukraine yes this is always a possibility um it's interesting because I I I uh uh looked at the long um address that President Putin gave at the valai conference um I think it was November 7th and he was asked uh about the Ukraine conflict he he didn't discuss 29:06 Trump but he talked a lot about what was happening in Ukraine in his sort of veil terms because it isn't a war as we all know and um but it it was interesting I mean he um Putin was pretty uh had some pretty strong words and this was the day after Trump was elected right and um you know he kind of doubled down on pretty much everything um in particular it it reminded me of the sort of the original motivation for Russia in in going into Ukraine in February 2022 which was this fear of NATO um you know they they didn't they uh the Kremlin and Putin really really really don't want Ukraine to join NATO or to have a security arrangement with 30:04 NATO and um this was made clear again um when when Putin spoke at the valai conference and I think that would be a huge stumbling block for any kind of negotiation do you think because one of the one of the ideas that has been sort of put out there by people close to Trump in recent days is this idea of a DMZ a dmit zone between Russia and Ukraine do you think that is a nonstarter From moscow's perspective because you know to me the obvious hurdle there is well who would be policing this DMZ and if you had western or even NATO troops there that clearly would antagonize Vladimir Putin so what do you make of that Amy as an idea I don't think that would go over with a Kremlin I think they it's pretty clear um that uh the Kremlin feels that they have to I mean the they have about 18% of Ukrainian territory right now and 31:02 then we have uh Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region although quite a you know not a large area so I think that um that the Kremlin at the very least would have to hold on to what they have um but they really aspire to to four regions in eastern Ukraine so that's one thing um but anything demilitarized IED they want a neutral Ukraine they want this chunk of Ukrainian territory they wanted neutral Ukraine now you know my view is that everybody's been talking recently um focusing on the victories that the Russian troops have had in eastern Ukraine and they're beginning to take back a little bit of kskk and they've brought in all these Korean soldiers so it looks like you know uh Russia has the bargaining um is on top in terms of the 32:00 bargaining situation but I think we have to remember that uh of course I feel like kind of a broken record when I say this um that this this is wearing on Russia and their ability first of all the fact that they had to bring in Korean troops shows that they have a real Manpower problem now so do the ukrainians but you know it's not like Russia can just go on and on and on um with all these really significant numbers of fatalities um in Russian forces so I think they they that that well if I were advising Trump I mean I would definitely say h the longer this can last the the harder it's going to be for Russia and the more likely they would be to make some sort of concessions but of course the flip side is that this is also very hard to ukra 33:01 hard for Ukraine and um well we could talk about the possibility that that Ukraine would be given permission to use these long-term uh uh long range missiles inside Russia if if that were to happen that would be a GameChanger I think and so if you think that Putin will have to make some kind of concession if he wants a kind of settlement sooner rather than later because of fear of it dragging on and maybe him having to launch a fresh wave of mobilization with all the political problems that that entails what might a Russian concession look like I mean Ukraine might need if it's going to seed some territory it might need a guarantee around its security for example NATO membership but how would Moscow view that and can you see any scenario in which Putin would agree to that as part of a settlement I really really really can't I think um that Putin is far more like ly to be willing to make some 34:00 concessions on uh on the amount of territory that Russia would end up with uh than he is to make the concession of allowing Ukraine into NATO um because as I say that that really was kind of the um the motivation initially it it's is is Russia's fear of NATO and that and that you know they um and how realistic it is is a total is another question but they just really didn't don't want their largest neighbor Ukraine to um to be a member of of a NATO State because then they could bring troops in so for Russia I think that's unacceptable um and this makes it very hard I mean it's interesting for both uh both Trump uh president-elect Trump and Putin because uh Trump I don't think he want 35:02 he's promised on day one that that this is going to he's going to reach a peace agreement but I really don't think he can afford to just sort of give away Ukraine um even if he could force Solinski uh into an agreement that would be very disadvantageous um for Ukraine but he could you know the scenario is he'd say you don't get any more from us if you don't do this but I I just am not sure that that would be a win situation for Mr Trump um but then we have the other you know the other the alternative for President Putin just at this point which is if he were to make concessions at all I mean remember they in February 2022 Russian troops aimed to occupy all of Ukraine they've lost um estimate say 600 ,000 um uh Russian soldiers so it's not 36:06 going to look very good for Putin to say okay we've changed all of our goals and we're going to do this so really um it's kind of a lose lose situation and my feeling will be that there won't be uh any kind of agreement I think it's going to drag on um and I think it's people are going to wait and see how the chips fall what happens with uh as you say possib all sorts of other things but I would not anticipate that on you know day one of Trump's Administration that he's going to sit down with Putin and sininsky hello it's James here we'll be right back with Frontline in just a moment but first I wanted to tell you about our brand new YouTube channel called times radio history and if you like Frontline I have a feeling you're going to love this every week we explore a different battle or moments in history and replay it asking ourselves what the long-term consequences might have been had things 37:04 played out differently already we've done episodes on D-Day on the Battle of gettsburg on Stalingrad on the first battle of EP in World War I and our latest episode is all about the siege of Yorktown in 1781 one of the key moments of the American Revolutionary War so make sure you subscribe to our channel it's called times radio history we'll put a link in the description below please do check it out and and talk to me if you can Amy about some of the internal pressures that will be on Vladimir Putin at the moment when it comes to any potential negotiations I mean you know everyone's aware of the political problems when it comes to potentially a future mobilization or indeed why it's unpalatable for him to have Ukraine in NATO I think when you were last on front line you used the term there's a choir of discontent around Putin in the Kremlin would they be chiming up if he 38:01 was seen to seed anything too valuable to Ukraine well when you say they we're talking about you know it's not like the elite is one you know uh consensual group I think the the military obviously you know they don't want to come out come out of this whole thing looking like losers um but I think quite a few members of the elite and I've talked about this before um would really just like to see an end to this war and uh because I think it it's pretty clear if we look out uh look back on how things have played out this really is this really has been Putin's War it was his idea to invade Ukraine in 2022 and remember he really didn't consult very many members so this is kind of his personal project and I do think that um he you know if he gave uh consent if he allowed some sort 39:05 of concessions the kinds of things we've been talking about I I don't think um that uh all the members of his government I think many members of his government would be okay with that because they want this over uh I think the the problem might be the military but even they could be talked into something I think it's really more uh going to be Putin's decision and his perception of of how it's going to go down with a public if he does back down on all these on all these claims but he certainly as of uh last week didn't look like he was prepared to do that hello and welcome to front line for times radio with Me Kate shabo and today we are talking to a ukraine-based global Affairs analyst with more than two decades experience in humanitarian work and International journalism Michael Boku is a senior 40:01 fellow at the Atlantic Council and has been a spokesman for the organization for security and cooperation in Europe he's also an author and a regular commentator for many International media Outlets including Frontline Michael great to see you again welcome back if we just have a little look at what uh president-elect Donald Trump's uh initial choices are in terms of appointments what are the ones that you are interested that can give us an indication of his attitude and his policy towards Ukraine in the war well um it's pretty mindboggling and it raises the question of what kind of how how do these uh folks in the trump in the Maga Circle view the institutions of um the White House of the Pentagon and so on um the recent U pick for the justice department for instance uh signals that uh you're you're he's appointing loyalists who have absolutely no qualifications but he can rely on 41:01 them to be his kind of pitbull to go after opponents or those who have crossed over the line in his mind in his warped mind but um there are um we we really expected uh for example former um Secretary of State and CIA director Mike pompelo to come into the administration we thought Nikki Haley would come in but those those have been crossed out but um the uh Mark Rubio uh has been apparent chosen as Secretary of State and I think that's a fairly good choice All Things Considered um because the big fear of course running up to the election and fears of a trump another Trump presidency is that most of the responsible grown-ups in the room have either fled or been crossed off of any Trump list so who are you going to pick from uh but there's quite a few more um and let's not forget that um a lot of these pics have to go through uh Congress through the Senate um I am um 42:03 also wondering for example what's going to happen to the US ambassador here in Kiev she's not regarded as very strong close to Mr Biden I think you'll see replacement there and then also interestingly Kate um in terms of new appointments I think we're going to see a change of uh faces at the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington a very very very key post uh oana Makarova who has become very well known to uh folks in the United States over the course of the War uh has uh been very harshly criticized by the Trump people uh for Mr zelinsky's Last Visit to to the United States so um I think we'll see a new appointment there uh but there is um actually criticism of how team zalin or team Ukraine are handling the transition right now we don't see many of their faces on on Fox or the big networks or down in Mar Lago lobbying for more 43:01 Ukraine Aid so that's a bit of a concern as well and why is that not happening well um I I think uh the last time you and I spoke it was around the time that uh foreign affairs minister mro kba was oued out of his post very highly regarded very impressive very articulate and um you know uh I would never for one second compare the zalinsky administration to the Trump Administration but there is a sense here that at the end of the day the big thing that counts here is loyalty sometimes over skill over track record and I think that's what happened um with Mr kbba sadly um and um instead they um appointed one of his Junior deputies who is best known for rising up early in the morning when second grade foreign affairs minister would come to Kev and he'd present bouquet of flowers or whatever to the arriving train so um and uh he's hardly as articulate as Mr kobba so I think they're fumbling on a key area right now 44:04 and um you know uh even at the beginning of the zinsky administration they did get rid of or they ignored a lot of really really effective te technocrats who were who were in place there so you know at the end of the day you have to play with the cards you have but I think some of this was uh kind of self-inflicted uh pain what they're facing right now just just two um appointments I wanted just to ask for your thoughts on by president-elect Donald Trump just to get your thoughts on tulsey gabard um his choice as Director of National Intelligence quite quite an interesting one in her stanson foreign policy because when Russia launched its fullscale invasion of Ukraine she claimed it could have been avoided if the Biden Administration and NATO had acknowledged R Russia's legitimate security concerns about NATO I mean people say things sometimes and when they actually get the job they change their stance but does this tell us anything about Trump's attitude 45:03 towards President Putin and the kind of claims he makes well I can't get too specific about her uh track record because um you know I'm not familiar with her but um she does fit into this narrative that is spun by um people like the vice president elect and others in the Trump camp that yeah it was the West that provoked this war because the West um members of NATO wanted to push the NATO boundaries right up to Russia and uh by doing so uh as the argument goes is that they provoked Mr Putin because you know one could argue that there was no way he could have NATO's um Eastern uh borders right up against Russians but um you know it's already close anyway if you'll look at um you know the Baltic Baltic states that area Scandinavia and um I think this is a 46:01 inevitability and it is for example in Ukraine's Constitution that Ukraine is going to Purser pursue a path to Nato um so it's hard to um say where they would go with this I think you're right is that once in their office and they received the proper briefings and hopefully they won't fire the entire bureaucracy and they'll get good advice uh that their eyes will open and see what's really going on and I think um you know hopefully they'll come and visit Ukraine in fact president zalinsky invited Mr Trump here um to see what is really going on because um briefings are one thing but once you come here and you see how people feel the damage the displacement and so on it really does open up your eyes especially especially the degree of uh war crimes that are going on right now on the Russian side so let's see what happens uh but um you know they they there's also a kind of habit among Mr Trump and his Circle um 47:04 to say things one day they're challenged with it the next day and then they deny saying it and that's a problem too right now because they'll blame the fake news on all sorts of things it's going to be um a real circus I think in the next coming um years we'll see if we just talk for a moment about what you're hearing from the front lines uh those return learning from them what are they telling you about the pressures they're fa facing in terms of the Manpower and equipment and what effect is the high demand for infantry soldiers really having well I go on information I received from um friends of mine who are in humanitarian Aid or helping the Armed Forces go to the front line and also foreign correspondents who come back from there and um the number one problem seems to be infantry the the lack of soldiers um the lack of replacement um you have a lot of soldiers there and the first wave were experienced but more 48:01 advanced in age who have been there with very little rotation and they're very very tired and they're under a lot of fire um I believe the target uh for recruitment right now is 150,000 or so probably they'll get 100,000 but as I mentioned earlier um there is um quite a bit of um resistance or let's call it unwillingness for young people to go their front line and fight but I I think um you know I can't speak for ordinary ukrainians but perhaps the message here should be ramped up to ordinary ukrainians and to those who have left the country is that this is an existential fight for the country and all hands on deck every possible um you know every possible individual is needed to to fight but you know the other problem is Kate is that if you're sent to the front line and you don't have the proper kit to to to fire back at the Russians or to defend yourself well that's that's that's uh that could cause anxiety and fears as well um and the R I 49:06 heard someone I heard someone saying about that it's not that morale is low and that people don't want to fight they just want to have the the equipment to be able to do so and they're prepared to do so it's more that exactly yeah but you know Ukraine has you know had an incredible track record I mean with basically no Navy they've been able to think well one third if not more of Russia's Black Sea Fleet with this drone technology and a lot of these drones that for example closed down Moscow airports the other day they're manufactured right here and they have incredible range incredible Firepower so let's not forget I mean the wars of today are also turning into technology Wars or hybrid Wars and um Ukraine is really really strong on that front a lot of uh technology experts and talent here who have not left or who working remotely in helping the war effort and you know I mentioned the hybrid War um 50:03 effort I should also say that I am flabbergasted at how little resources how little little effort European countries are doing to push back Mr Putin or punish him for the shenanigans that are happening where you are in the United Kingdom or on European soil from poisoning or killing people whether it's in the United Kingdom or Spain with nuclear sorry with military grade um uh means uh or by causing Havoc for example the United Kingdom there was a uh Warehouse used by ukrainians that was burnt down meddling in elections uh misinformation uh on a very very wide scale and I know the European leaders and Brussels have raised the alarm on this but it's not enough just to raise the alarm or complain about it you have to back it up with actions and with money and to end that this point I think um one thing and I've said this probably million times including with you is the 51:04 only one thing that Mr Putin understands is strength so um you know the EU or its allies May commit a certain amount of money but Mr Putin could snap his fingers and double or triple that so resources have to more resources have to be put aside to fight this uh Russian hybrid War otherwise the Russian war effort will come much much more to the doorsteps of ordinary folks in the United Kingdom or anywhere in Europe and I know that you you've been thinking a lot about the wider consequences of the war in Ukraine North Korea has this week ratified its defense pact with Russia what are the potential ra ramifications of the deal to have consequences far beyond Ukraine's borders well let me be very blunt this is now a global war this is a globalized war if has been for quite some time let's not forget the role of Iran and providing the deadly drones that are 52:02 striking Kev and other Ukrainian cities on a daily basis and yes the North Koreans have been providing lots and lots of ammo to the Russians and missiles as well we know that because the ukrainians pick up the pieces and they see the markings of of North Korea on there and then in addition to the estimated 10,000 North Korean soldiers uh joining Russians um in the battle for the return of K uh I just U read a report this morning that probably there's 20,000 more on their way from dprk they do not have uh modern Battlefield experience and um they are receiving Russian training in the Russian Far East I don't know how much that will work out for them because we see the meat grinder that is happening I think the latest figure is 1,400 Russian dead and injured every day so those um those North Koreans could be returning a home in boxes but imagine for a moment that if thousands of them do survive and 53:02 go back to dprk what kind of threat does that pose to peace in the Indo Pacific region people have to start thinking about that as well people have to start thinking about what is Russia offering in return in return to tahran and to pongyang for their assistance is it nuclear technology not only money so uh I I think uh this is also a call for countries that have been sitting on the fence that feel they're far away from this conflict like India uh like Japan like South Korea I just noticed the other day uh Taiwan has donated a lot of Def U missile defense batteries to to Kiev as well these are us-made uh kit so um again once again I mean by this war becoming so globalized it is going to hit this country these countries sooner or later one more point is as you well know for the longest time Russia has been constraining the flow of food from where I live Odessa port to the world including to some very very 54:04 needy countries uh about two weeks ago there were no ships uh waiting to enter ad desus the first time I've seen that uh for a long long time apparently choners were tipped off that the Russians are going to send more missiles to the adessa region and they fled unloaded it didn't get widely reported but I saw it with my my very own eyes um so president zalinsky once said is why is it that a small group of men in the Kremlin are able to dictate what we eat at our dinner tables or how much we pay for it and then one more thing um if foreign reporting is to be to be believed Russians have also been rep sorry Russians have also been providing targeting information to the Iran backed HTI Rebels to strike commercial ships in the Red Sea a key key trade artery why is there no no more screaming about that um these these are very very provocative 55:02 disruptive actions on the part of the cremet and just uh Michael finally in in the coming days and weeks what are you going to be focusing your attention on what are you going to be looking out for yeah aside from the kind of smaller things uh new appointments from the US but also the Ukrainian side is that very very big one ask from the ukrainians is whether the permission to use storm shuttle missiles will be acted upon um for Ukraine to strike deeper in into Russia I think that's really crucial I think um we're also going to be watching what happens in Europe the uh president of Finland has um come out quite strongly saying that we have to help Ukraine with these negotiations to decide things about land and over uh security guarantees uh the reparations and the Reconstruction uh there's going to be a lot more huddling going on between European leaders of course you have people like Hungary Zoran on the side saying no no 56:05 no we have to negotiate with Russia it'll be interesting to see whether he's going to be the the peace Whisperer to to Mr Trump as well given their relationship so um this is something I've predicted for quite some time is that more and more the responsibility for helping Ukraine push back Mr Putin will fall on European shoulders and more even more so on nearby neighbors like Poland um like the Baltic states of course they don't have the financial heft uh military heft that the US can provide but you know like I said earlier I think other countries uh which have a lot of ability to provide weaponry and financial assistance for example India uh need to come and step up to the plate because day by day by day Kate this is becoming much much more of a globalized war and I think the you know Mr Modi and others are deluding themselves if they think that this hybrid this um 57:04 terroristic uh actions by Mr Putin is not going to affect their economies appreciate you spending some time with us Michael bosio thank you very much as always a pleasure thank you you've been watching Frontline for times radio with Me Kate chabo if you'd like to be the first to get exclusive content you can sign up for membership with the link below you can also listen to times radio for the latest news or read it on the times.com my thanks to our producer today Lou Sykes and to you for watching bye

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