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INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURE BlowMe AI: China JUST CRIPPLED the $34.5 Billion U.S. Farming Industry… What’s Next? PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrJfzS6GqAQ Peter Burgess COMMENTARY I don't know how 'factual' this report is ... I do not know much about the Blow Me AI channel and suspect that it is merely an instance of Information Technology. At this point in history. there is an emerging ecosystem of AI generated information instances. Whether or not this is good or bad is not yet clear ... but I am increasingly concenrned that 'real' is being submerged by 'qnything goes fantasy'. Peter Burgess
China JUST CRIPPLED the $34.5 Billion U.S. Farming Industry… What’s Next? BlowMe AI 79.9K subscribers Nov 18, 2024 This report examines China's strategic reduction of U.S. agricultural imports, dropping from $43 billion in 2022 to $34 billion in 2023. The analysis tracks China's systematic efforts to achieve food independence through domestic production, technological advancement, and diversified international partnerships, particularly with Brazil. The shift has severely impacted American farmers, with projected annual losses of billions in soybean and corn production. The situation appears particularly concerning given potential new tariffs exceeding 60% if Donald Trump returns to office, which could further strain the already struggling U.S. agricultural sector. Join this channel to get access to perks: / @blowmeai Transcript 0:00 news comes as cooko farmer Kent Chisum is preparing to plant soybeans in his field he and others are closely watching what's happening with exports Chisum is a fifth generation farmer working alongside his son his crops are split 5050 between corn and soybeans for he and other Indiana Farmers about one-third of the soybeans planted are exported to China but that could change this year the CEO of bone tells Bloomberg and Reuters China is very deliberately not buying soybeans from the US it has poent China the world's largest importer of agricultural products has dramatically reduced its Reliance on us Farm Imports this strategic shift which began during the trade War under Donald Trump's first presidential term has put China in a stronger position to withstand the looming threat of tariffs exceeding 60% if Trump returns to office in January the impact on the US farming sector has 1:02 been nothing short of devastating with agricultural exports to China plummeting to Historic lows in recent years it could very well um turn into something seriously but uh I'm hopeful that it's a short-term thing a spokeswoman for the Indiana soybean Alliance says the type of trade disruption is one of the organization's primary fears showing that Jay O'Neal a grain industry consultant and former Economist at Kansas State University said I think it's terribly naive of anyone to think that the election of trump and the Republican party will be positive for agriculture Reuters Tom panc reported a new round of trade Wars would come at a tough time us corn and soy prices tumbled to 20120 lows this year under pressure from massive harvests and intense competition for Global export sales from rival supplier Brazil that has hit the US agriculture economy hard and reduced demand for tractors combines 2:00 and other agricultural equipment from companies like deer and Company the nation is projected to face a record 42.5 billion agricultural trade deficit in 2025 according to the US Department of Agriculture according to Chinese Customs data us agricultural exports to China declined from a staggering $43 billion in 2022 to $34 billion in 2023 with experts predicting a further Dro this year the share of China's soybean imports from the US once the top American export to China has fallen from 40% in 2016 to a mere 18% in 2024 meanwhile Brazil has stepped into fill the void with its share of the Chinese soybean Market surging from 46% to an astonishing 76% over the same period it appears China may be on the road to less dependence on us Imports 3:01 recent signals indicate that there is an increasing Reliance by American farmers on the Chinese Marketplace while the world's number 2 economy has been steering away from us Goods timeline of China's efforts to fully grasp the magnitude of this transformation it's essential to examine the timeline of China's efforts to reduce its dependence on American Farm Goods the first major blow came on August 5th 2019 when China halted purchases of us AG ultural products in retaliation against tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration despite the signing of the phase 1 trade agreement on January 16th 2020 in which China agreed to raise purchases of American Goods by $200 billion over 2 years including $32 billion in agriculture products China ultimately failed to meet its commitments in 2021 China launched commercial trial planting for genetically modified corn and soybeans signaling its intention to 4:00 boost domestic production on April 29th 2021 the country adopted an anti-food waste law to prevent grain wastage and banned binge eating videos and excessive leftovers by February 1st 2022 a US trade official confirmed that China had fallen short of its Phase 1 obligations with agriculture secretary Tom vilsack informing lawmakers that China's purchases of us Farm goods were approximately $13 billion below the agreed upon amount China's efforts to diversify its agricultural Supply sources accelerated in 2022 on February 4th the country allowed Imports of Wheat and barley from all regions of Russia the world's biggest wheat exporter in a powerful statement on March 7th president xiin ping told political advisers China must rely on self-reliance and feed itself if we can't hold our own rice bowls we will be controlled by others 5:00 food security is a strategic issue on May 25th when China permitted Imports of Brazilian corn on June 28th 2022 China passed a soil conservation law to protect crop yields in the Bread Basket provinces of haong Jang Jen leing and inner Mongolia where Decades of rapid industrialization and overuse of pesticides had degraded soil and curbed yields the year 2023 saw China intensify its efforts to curb soybean Imports and boost domestic production on April 14th the country rolled out a plan to reduce soy meal ratios in animal feed to less than 133% by 2025 down from 14.5% in 2022 China also announced its intention to approve microbial proteins for feed and pilot projects using leftover food and animal carcasses for animal feed in a significant move on May 4th China approved a variety of Gene 6:00 edited soybeans marking its first approval of the technology to boost yields unlike Gene modification GMO Gene editing does not introduce foreign DNA instead it manipulates the existing natural genome on December 26 2023 China issued licenses to a first batch of 26 seed companies to produce and sell genetically modified corn and soybean seeds in certain provinces in 2024 China's drive for agricultural self-sufficiency gained even more momentum on April 9th the country launched an initiative to boost grain production by over 50 million metric tons by 2030 building upon the record 695.2rpm world's third largest exporter of the animal feed grain China's first 7:03 food security law aimed at achieving absolute self-sufficiency in staple grains and food production came into effect on June 3rd 2024 the law holds Central and provincial governments accountable for incorporating food security into their Economic and Development plans including protection of Farmland from conversion to other uses on October 25th 2024 China launched a 20 2024 to 2028 action plan to accelerate the development of smart farming and precision agriculture to raise food output the country's agriculture Ministry stated that China is set to exceed a record 700 million metric tons of grain production in 2024 economic impact on American farmers the economic impact of China's strategic pivot on American farmers has been severe and far-reaching recent studies conducted by the national Corn Growers Association and the American soybean Association paint a grim picture 8:04 projecting devastating losses ranging from 3.6 to 5.9 billion annually in soybean production value and 0.9 to 1.4 billion in corn losses soybean prices have plunged by 60 cents to $1 per bushel while corn prices have fallen by 8 cents to 13 cents per bushel below Baseline levels the human impact of these losses is palpable Mark Tuttle a Northern Illinois soybean farmer voices the growing alarm within the agricultural Community stating we are very concerned South America is producing an awful lot of soybeans if we were to Institute more tariffs that would be very detrimental to our situation his concerns are echoed by Farmers Across the Nation as us soybean exports to China dropped from 36.1 million metric tons in 2016 to 26.4 million tons last year the agricultural 9:02 landscape is literally shrinking with projections showing a reduction of 1.3 9:07 to 2.2 million acres in US soybean cultivation this contraction 9:12 reverberates through rural communities impacting everything from equipment sales to transportation services Dean 9:20 company reports decreased demand for tractors and combines while rural Transportation companies face reduced 9:26 shipping volumes Denny wolf former Pennsylvania secretary of agriculture describes Farmers being hit with a 9:33 double whammy of rising import costs from tariffs while export values plummeted Gary wordes Minnesota Farmers 9:40 Union president confirms that the agriculture economy is still rebuilding from these devastating effects Iowa the 9:48 nation's second largest agricultural export State shipped 6.5 billion doll in 9:54 domestic agricultural exports in 2022 and former Iowa Secretary of agriculture 10:00 Patty judge warns that new tariffs could be catastrophic for the state due to its 10:05 large agricultural production relative to its population and land mass South 10:10 America's agricultural boom as America's agricultural sector struggles Brazilian 10:15 farmers are expanding production capacity with substantial infrastructure Investments their soybean and corn 10:22 prices have risen 75 C to $1 per bushel above normal levels Brazil has invested 10:28 billions in modern izing ports and expanding railway lines while Argentine Farmers scale up operations to meet 10:34 Chinese demand an agriculture Analyst at Beijing based Trivium China reveals 10:39 China's strategic thinking stating Beijing feels much safer knowing the US has less leverage over China's food 10:46 Security in the event of a major conflict bracing for potential trade War 10:52 as the United States prepares for a second term under President Trump farmers are bracing themselves for the 10:58 prospect of a new trade war with China Trump has threatened to impose tariffs 11:03 of at least 60% on Chinese Imports raising the Spectre of retaliatory 11:09 measures targeting us agricultural Goods once again can a trade war with China be 11:16 one US president-elect Donald Trump vows to put America First promising up to 60% 11:22 tariffs on Chinese Imports so will we see a stronger US economy at China's 11:28 expense or L lose scenario to make the global economy suffer broader economic 11:34 implications Rural America is devastated wendong Jong an agricultural Economist 11:40 at Cornell University explains China's retaliation would be proportional in terms of trade value and with the goal 11:47 to inflict economic and political cost which tends to lead to retaliation on agricultural products the agricultural 11:55 downturn reaches Beyond Farms with rural Banks reporting increased loan defaults 12:00 grain storage facilities operating below capacity and younger Generations increasingly leaving farming communities 12:08 every sector connected to agriculture feels the impact from fertilizer suppliers to Transportation companies 12:14 farm equipment dealers to local businesses the world agricultural economic and environmental services 12:20 study warns of permanent changes stating a repeated tariff-based approach accelerates the conversion of crop land 12:27 in South America which has permanent ramifications on soybean and corn exports worldwide and US soybean and 12:33 Corn Growers bear the burden under various scenarios American soybean 12:39 exports to China could drop by 14 to 16 million metric tons annually 12:44 representing a staggering 51.8% decline from previous levels Brent 12:50 schwart president of the Iowa soybean Association described the ongoing struggle stating many farmers could 12:57 share a similar story of depressed commodity prices and sustained Financial squeeze following the start of the US 13:04 China trade dispute trade remains a top priority for us soybean farmers and this 13:10 study only underscores its importance the impact of the trade war 13:16 on us farmers during Trump's first term during Donald Trump's first term as 13:21 president the US China trade War had a devastating impact on American farmers 13:27 in 2018 the Trump ad Administration imposed tariffs on a wide range of Chinese Goods valued at approximately 13:34 $300 billion in retaliation China strategically targeted us agricultural 13:40 products placing tariffs of up to 25% on soybeans Beef Pork wheat corn and 13:47 sorghum soybeans the top us agricultural export to China were particularly hard 13:53 hit according to the US Department of Agriculture USDA soybean exports to 13:58 China fell from 36.1 million metric tons in 2016 to 31.7 million metric tons in 14:07 2017 before the full impact of the trade war was felt by 2018 soybean exports had 14:14 dropped even further as China sought alternative suppliers such as Brazil and 14:19 Argentina the consequences for American soybean farmers were dire prices for the 14:25 crop plummeted falling to a 10-year low in May 2019 many farmers found 14:30 themselves struggling to break even as the costs of production outpaced the reduced revenue from their crops the 14:36 financial strain LED some Farmers to make the difficult decision to abandon soybean cultivation altogether opting 14:43 for alternative crops or leaving the agricultural sector entirely the 15:01 we have to be able to make a profit and at least break even and where we're at 15:07 today for the next four to 5 years I don't see that happening until we have this uh uh trade War uh settled 15:28 [Music] compared to where we were a year ago uh 15:36 we're looking at uh a loss of $3 a bushel so on that uh on that 14,000 15:45 bushels of beans that we have left uh that'd be almost a $45,000 loss 15:53 [Music] 16:08 [Music] 16:20 what I'm worried about is what does that do to our Market down the line uh once you lose that customer especially as 16:27 sharply as what it's happening in this this time period is what does that do down the road can you gain that market 16:34 back that's that's very scary for us as as the American 16:44 Farmer Trump Administration attempted to mitigate the impact of the trade war on Farmers by providing a substantial Aid 16:51 package in 2018 and 2019 the government allocated approximately $23 billion in 16:59 assistance to Farmers affected by the tariffs as reported by the government accountability office us farmers are 17:06 facing an unprecedented crisis as China the world's largest importer of agricultural products shifts its focus 17:13 away from American Imports and towards Brazil and Argentina threatens the foundation of American agriculture us 17:20 agricultural exports to China have dropped to Historic lows with corn exports down 71% and soybean exports 17:27 falling 133% through September 2023 the nation faces an unprecedented $ 17:34 42.5 billion agricultural trade deficit projected for 17:40 2025 marking the most significant transformation in American farming 17:45 history The Crisis began in 2018 when China strategically imposed 25% tariffs 17:52 on us soybeans Beef Pork wheat corn and sorghum retaliating against Trump 17:57 Administration duties on $300 billion of Chinese Goods the impact was so severe 18:04 that the US government provided 23 billion in Farmer compensation as reported by the government 18:10 accountability office the transformation of us China agricultural trade tells a stark story of strategic realignment in 18:18 2016 the United States commanded 40% of China's soybean Imports today that share 18:24 has plummeted to 18% while Brazil's share surged from 4 6% to 76% this shift 18:31 accelerated in 2023 when Brazil overtook the United States as China's primary corn supplier just one year after 18:38 gaining Market access Brazil is a major commodity producer and through exports such as soybeans and iron ore it has 18:44 long enjoyed a trade surplus over China in recent years even with China widening its overall global trade surplus its 18:52 deficit with Brazil has gotten bigger Brazil has really benefited from uh 18:57 China's rise as a global economic superpower so Brazil is one of these 19:03 countries that because of the nature of its exports to China mostly 19:09 Commodities uh really benefited from the fact that China started demanding 19:14 Commodities on a regular and sustained basis the economic impact on American 19:20 farmers has been severe and measurable recent Studies by the National Corn Growers Association and American soybean 19:27 Association project devast stating losses 3.6 to 5.9 billion annually in 19:33 soybean production value and 0.9 to 1.4 billion in corn losses soybean prices 19:40 have dropped 0.6 to $1.0 per bushel while corn prices fell 19:46 0.08 to 0.13 per bushel below Baseline levels 19:51 Mark Tuttle a Northern Illinois soybean farmer voices the growing alarm we are very concerned South America is 19:58 producing an awful lot of soybeans if we were to Institute more tariffs that would be very detrimental to our 20:04 situation his concerns reflect a broader crisis as us soybean exports to China 20:10 dropped from 36.1 million metric tons in 2016 to 26.4 million tons last year the 20:17 agricultural landscape is literally shrinking projections show a reduction of 1.3 to 2.2 million acres in US 20:24 soybean cultivation this contraction ripples through rural communities affecting everything from equipment 20:30 sales to transportation services dearen company reports decreased demand for tractors and combines while rural 20:37 Transportation companies face reduced shipping volumes Denny wolf former Pennsylvania secretary of agriculture 20:44 describes Farmers being hit with a double whammy Rising import costs from tariffs while export values plummeted 20:51 Gary wordes Minnesota Farmers Union president confirms the agriculture economy is still rebuilding from these 20:59 devastating effects Iowa the nation's second largest agricultural export State 21:04 shipped $6.5 billion in domestic agricultural exports in 2022 former Iowa 21:11 secretary of agriculture Patty judge warns that new tariffs could be catastrophic for Iowa due to its large 21:18 agricultural production relative to its population and land mass meanwhile South 21:23 America's agricultural sector flourishes Brazilian farmers are expanding production Capac capacity with 21:29 substantial infrastructure Investments their soybean and corn prices have risen 75 to $1 per bushel above normal levels 21:38 Brazil has invested billions in modernizing ports and expanding railway lines while Argentine Farmers scale up 21:45 operations to meet Chinese demand even pay agriculture Analyst at Beijing based 21:50 Trivium China reveals China's strategic thinking Beijing feels much safer 21:55 knowing the US has less leverage over China's food Security in the event of a major conflict this strategy extends 22:03 Beyond trade Chinese livestock companies are reducing soy meal in animal feed 22:08 while the government approves genetically modified soybean and corn varieties to boost domestic production 22:14 the impact on Rural America is devastating wendong Jong agricultural Economist at Cornell University explains 22:22 China's retaliation would be proportional in terms of trade value and with the goal to inflict economic and 22:28 political cost which tends to lead to retaliation on agricultural products the combined annual hit to US economic 22:36 output from reduced soybean and corn exports ranges from 4.9 to $7.9 billion 22:43 Jose austo decastro president of the Brazilian foreign trade Association addresses the permanence of this shift 22:50 this is a reality we need to get used to we thought Argentina was one of our captive markets but this has shown 22:56 itself not to be true and China will continue in its efforts to win over 23:01 markets whether they are geographically close by or distant the agricultural 23:06 downturn reaches Beyond Farms rural Banks report increased loan defaults 23:11 grain storage facilities operate below capacity and younger Generations increasingly leave farming communities 23:19 every sector connected to agriculture feels the impact from fertilizer suppliers to Transportation companies 23:26 farm equipment dealers to local business the world agricultural economic and environmental services study warns of 23:33 permanent changes a repeated tariff-based approach accelerates conversion of crop land in South America 23:40 which has permanent ramifications on soybean and corn exports worldwide and 23:45 US soybean and Corn Growers bear the burden under various scenarios American 23:50 soybean exports to China could drop by 14 to 16 million metric tons annually 23:56 representing a 51.8% % decline from previous levels Brent schwart president 24:01 of the Iowa soybean Association describes the ongoing struggle many farmers could share a similar story of 24:09 depressed commodity prices and sustained Financial squeeze following the start of the US China trade dispute trade remains 24:17 a top priority for us soybean farmers and this study only underscores its 24:22 importance the contrasts between declining us markets and Rising South American power become Starker each year 24:30 Brazil and Argentina are not just expanding production they're revolutionizing their agricultural 24:36 infrastructure New Ports expanded Railway systems and modernized storage facilities strengthen their position as 24:43 China's preferred suppliers China's agricultural pivot reflects a broader 24:48 strategic plan since 2018 Chinese companies have systematically invested 24:54 in South American Agricultural infrastructure while reducing us depend 24:59 the country's top agricultural Imports soybeans and corn now predominantly flow 25:04 from Brazil and Argentina rather than American Farms pragmatic stance China 25:09 has become Argentina's second largest trade partner playing a vital role in 25:14 the country's exports and imports as China advances its manufacturing capabilities and shifts towards high-end 25:21 products and services Argentina stands to benefit from this transformation the 25:26 bilateral relationship is by complimentary trade interests with Argentina exporting agricultural Goods 25:33 to China while important manufactured products this Dynamic is essential for Argentina's economy particularly amid 25:40 its ongoing challenges of inflation and debt J O'Neal a grain industry 25:46 consultant and former Economist at Kansas State University States bluntly I think it's terribly naive of anyone to 25:52 think that the election of trump and the Republican party will be positive for agriculture his assessment reflects 25:59 growing concerns about potential new tariffs and trade tensions that could further damage us agricultural exports 26:07 state-by-state impacts reveal the depth of the crisis Minnesota and Wisconsin 26:13 Farmers unions report continued struggles to recover from initial trade War impacts rural communities face 26:19 declining populations reduced tax revenues and struggling local businesses 26:26 agricultural equipment manufacturers report sales declines while grain storage facilities operate at reduced 26:33 capacity the transformation affects every aspect of rural infrastructure 26:38 Municipal Services face budget cuts Community Development projects stall and local infrastructure Investments 26:44 decrease rural Banks specializing in agricultural loans report increased stress on their portfolios while farm 26:51 equipment dealers maintain smaller inventories for South American agriculture China's pivot creates 26:58 unprecedented opportunities Brazilian agricultural exports to China have reached record levels while Argentina 27:05 reports increased demand both countries expand farming operations invest in new 27:11 equipment and develop additional infrastructure to handle increased export 27:17 volumes this is a a soy field that's recently been planted and it's one of 27:22 the leading crops that Argentina is selling to China these days China is one 27:27 of the leading buyers of Argentina's agricultural products and cooperation has been increasing in this area in 27:35 recent years and hopes are that the two countries will continue to work closely 27:41 [Music] 28:16 [Music] economic projections paint an 28:22 increasingly challenging picture for us agriculture the projected 42.5 billion 28:28 doll agricultural trade deficit in 2025 represents a dramatic reversal from 28:34 America's traditional position as a global agricultural leader corn exports to China sank 71% through September 2023 28:43 while soybean exports dropped 13% the price impact hits Farmers directly 28:49 soybean Futures trade near four-year lows amid intense competition from Brazil corn prices face similar pressure 28:55 affecting farm income and investment decision these price declines directly impact 29:01 Farmers ability to maintain operations and invest in new equipment Regional variations and impact show particular 29:08 stress in major agricultural States Iowa's position as the second largest 29:13 agricultural export State makes it especially vulnerable to trade disruptions similar challenges face 29:19 Illinois Minnesota and other major farming states where agricultural exports traditionally drove local 29:26 economies the Ripple effects end throughout rural economies Transportation companies report reduced 29:32 grain shipping volumes while agricultural supply companies face decreased demand rural real estate 29:38 values face downward pressure as farming operations struggle affecting both agricultural land and residential 29:45 property values China's strategic planning encompasses multiple aspects of agricultural trade Beyond shifting 29:52 suppliers the country implements domestic policies to reduce dependence on specific crops Chinese livestock 29:59 companies modify feed formulations to reduce soybean meal usage while government policies promote domestic 30:05 production through approved genetically modified varieties the contrast between us Decline and South American growth 30:13 becomes clearer in infrastructure development Brazil's investments in transportation and storage facilities 30:19 create lasting advantages in agricultural exports Argentine producers similarly expand operations and 30:26 modernize facilities to meet Chinese demand Global Food security implications 30:31 Loom large as trade patterns shift China's position as the world's largest 30:36 agricultural importer means its decisions influence global food supply chains the reorientation of these Supply 30:43 chains away from us producers represents a fundamental change in Global Food security Dynamics agricultural 30:50 communities face difficult transitions rural development initiatives struggle with reduced funding while essential 30:57 services face budget constraints young Farmers find it increasingly difficult to enter the industry threatening the 31:04 generational transfer of agricultural knowledge and operations the numbers reveal accelerating change us soybean 31:12 exports to China dropped from 36.1 million metric tons in 2016 to 26.4 31:19 million metric tons recently this decline occurs while overall Chinese agricultural Imports increase 31:25 highlighting the deliberate shift away from us suppliers the transformation permanence becomes clearer as South 31:32 American agriculture expands Brazilian farmers convert new land to cultivation while improving productivity on existing 31:39 Farmland Argentine producers modernize operations and expand production capacity solidifying their position in 31:46 global markets expert analyses suggest lasting changes in global agricultural 31:51 trade patterns Cornell University's Jong emphasizes China's strategic approach to 31:57 agricultural Imports noting how retaliation specifically targets us farming communities for maximum economic 32:04 and political impact the crisis forces difficult adaptations in US farming communities multi-generational farming families consider alternative crops or leaving agriculture entirely rural businesses adapt to reduced agricultural activity while Community Services adjust to decreased tax revenues infrastructure challenges compound the problem reduced farm income affects mainten and Improvement of agricultural facilities Transportation networks face reduced demand for grain shipping while storage facilities operate below optimal capacity these changes reshape America's role in global agriculture traditional us agricultural leadership faces challenges from expanding South American production and Chinese strategic planning the transformation affects not just current operations but future agricultural investment and development patterns

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