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MIDDLE EAST ... SYRIA DECEMBER 2024 Business Basics: Putin Abandons 'weak' Assad as rebels head for Syrian capital PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRJtS7nXqDw Peter Burgess COMMENTARY During my working career I did several assignments in various parts of the Middle East. The history of the Middle East is fascinating ... too complex to get a good understanding without a substantial commitment to study. While there are some things I do study 'ad nauseum', I cannot do this in the same way with history!. Mew culpa! While the Middle East and the Mediterranean are home for a lot of ancient history ... the modern manifestation of this history has been more bad than good in recent modern times. And Syria is right in the middle! But worse ... Syria is the one place in the region where the friendship with Moscow is evidenced by strong active military cooperation and collaboration. Inside Syria ... there are many factions that have power. Bashar al-Assad has been the President of Syria since the death of his father in 199 Peter Burgess
Putin Abandons 'weak' Assad as rebels head for Syrian capital Business Basics 1.26M subscribers Dec 5, 2024 Support the content on Patreon: / businessbasicsyt Sign up to my free 7 day Youtube Basics Bootcamp here: https://bit.ly/7dayCrashcourse Sign up for our FREE Geopolitics Newsletter: https://www.globalrecaps.com/subscribe Our Podcast 'Chaos & Peace' : • Chaos & Peace Music by Karl Casey @ White Bat Audio Syria Plunged into Darkness \| Aleppo Falls Hama is Next Putin abandons 'weak' Assad as rebels head for Syrian capital Join the Basics Team: ▶️ Apply for Shorts Writer: https://forms.gle/Hsz7XViCv2nCX92Z9 ▶️ Apply for Script Writer: https://forms.gle/x9fvA5GmUA5Nec9eA ▶️ Apply for Clips Researcher / Gatherer: https://forms.gle/hYqkLTEKbHGGSSxH9 Transcript 0:00 Syria is at War again over the weekend one of the world's oldest cities in Syria's economic capital Aleppo fell swiftly to the might of the Rebel Alliance led by the harat terier Alam group a former al- Qaeda affiliate in Syria it was a sudden and unexpected attack that has since shaken the entire Middle East causing chaos and confusion this historic and unprecedented Onslaught May Mark the end of Syria as we currently know it and Signal the birth of something entirely new in this video we're going to unravel the latest events in Syria we'll break down the key players explore the humanitarian crisis and reflect on the incredible resilience of the Syrian people bear in mind this isn't just a story of a war it's a story of humanity of Courage and the Relentless pursuit of Peace in the Middle East it's our job to bring you the truth about what's happening around the globe but sometimes YouTube's algorithms hates that and our content get it's demonetized and suppressed recently a Channel of ours 1:02 was taken down because we criticized Russia too much can you believe that in any case please keep liking our content and sharing it to keep the uncensored truth of geopolitics alive let me start by breaking down the recent news in a very digestible way so that you can follow along with me for over decades Syria has been wrapped in a bloody and gruesome Civil War that has seen hundreds of thousands of deaths imagine the nation as a giant chess board with different pieces and players each trying to gain control over strategic locations to increase their power even at the cost of lives one of the most important strongholds on this chessboard is Aleppo which is one of Syria's largest cities and has significant historical and economic importance over the weekend one of the chess pieces on the Syrian board a group of rebels specifically led by harat Alam more commonly known as HTS launched a surprise offensive in Aleppo this bold move was made to capture key positions so as to change the landscape of the war the HTS Rebels managed to breakr and 2:04 capture more than 47 Villages surrounding Aleppo in a well-planned attack that significantly weakened the power and control of the Syrian government or more specifically the Assad regime because of these strategic value of Aleppo the past days have seen intense fighting occur but it seems the rebels have had the upper hand throughout it's difficult to explain just how significant taking the city is for the rebels typically conquering Aleppo should have been a monthlong affair but it seems that the rebels were well prepared for one their timing was perfect reflecting that it had been well thought out and influenced by the broader Regional Dynamics you see with the Syrian government forces stretched thin due to various fronts including the ongoing conflict in Aleppo and hamama they are unable to establish a strong presence across all areas additionally Regional tensions involving Iran and Hezbollah have diverted their resources and attention Iran a key Ally of the Syrian government has been heavily 3:03 involved in conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza which has weakened its ability to support Syrian forces effectively Hezbollah another crucial Ally has also been preoccupied with its own hostilities with Israel the combination of stretched resources and diverted attention created a window of opportunity for HTS and its allies who saw this as the perfect moment to launch a surprise offensive another thing that enabl the rebels to gain control so quickly was their capture of the M5 Highway think of the M5 Highway is a major artery that supplies lifeblood to the city it's a critical route for transporting military supplies Logistics and even everyday goods for everyday life by taking control of this highway the rebels have gained a significant Advantage making it harder for the Syrian government to maintain its hold on the region they have also been reported to have taken control of aleppo's airport and all roads leading into the city have been closed frankly it is safe to say that most of the city now lies in the rebels hands from here on out it is likely that we are going to see the true fight between the HTS and the Syrian government the Syrian Army 4:04 lost dozens of its troops before a strategic Retreat when the assault began if or rather when a counter offensive is launched things could get very bad the people seem to know that as we have already begun to receive reports of officials fleeing the city as things have intensified president Bashar has even reiterated that they will defeat these Rebels at any cost signaling that he is ready to take it all the way currently the Syrian government backed by its allies like Russia and Iran is trying to push back and regain control Russia's defense Ministry has confirmed that they've been carrying out air strikes against the rebels alongside Syrian jets in an effort to flush the rebels out like they did in previous years back in 2011 during the early stages of the Syrian Civil War Rebels managed to take control of Aleppo this was a significant moment as it marked a major territorial gain for the opposition forces against President Bashar al- Assad's regime however by December of 2016 the Syrian government 5:01 with support of its allies including Russia and Iran launched a major offensive to retake Aleppo after intense fighting government forces successfully regained control of the entire city marking a significant turning point in the conflict the battle for Aleppo was one of the longest and most brutal in the Syrian Civil War resulting in significant destruction and loss of life the government's recapture of Aleppo in 2016 was seen as a major victory for president Assad's regime and now in 2024 this all feels like deja vu whether the Syrian Army will be able to kick out the rebels this time however is another matter entirely one we will have to wait and see so far despite the Air Raids and ground offensive the rebels are comfortably holding their ground the Syrian Army has deployed more soldiers however in a bid to stop the rebels from advancing farther in Hama province that is bound to ensure a nasty fight that will either solidify gains for the rebel alliance or turn the tables around for the Assad regime the next few days days are going to be extremely crucial as we will see what each side does and how the 6:03 picture develops sadly the death toll will keep rising and the best we can hope for is that civilians especially children are kept safe all right much like the rebels in Aleppo we started our video guns of Blazing with the latest developments how about we take a step back and establish some background to help you make sense of everything that's happening and all of the chest pieces involved firstly if you've ever been Syria is a beautiful country right in the heart of the Middle East it's bordered by turkey on the North Iraq to the east Jordan and Israel to the South and Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea to the West this perfect strategic spot has made Syria a Crossroads of civilizations for Centuries with a rich mix of ethnic and religious communities Arabs Kurds Armenians Christians Drews you name it the nation has been ruled by the Assad family since 1970 hafz al- Assad was a shrewd and often ruthless leader who established a strong authoritarian regime when he passed away in 2000 his son Bashar al-assad took over 7:00 people had high hopes for Bashar especially since he was Western educated and had a background in medicine but unfortunately those hopes for political and economic reforms were mostly dashed as the regime continued its authoritarian ways talk about letting down the masses huh when he first took over he did Implement some reforms and loosen some restrictions but sadly that was really just all for show eventually the world realized that corruption remained rampant political freedoms were severely restricted and descent wasn't tolerated at all to add to all these political issues the economy was also struggling with high unemployment and poverty levels these underlying issues set the stage for the unrest that erupted in 2011 in what became known as the Arab Spring the Arab Spring was a wave of anti-government protests and uprisings that swept across the Arab world inspired by the events in Tunisia and Egypt where dictator presidents Zena al- abedin Ben Ali and hni Mubarak were forcefully removed from power syrians saw this as their opportunity to rid themselves of their own dict 8:00 they took to the streets demanding political Freedom an end to corruption and various economic reforms it all started in the city of Dar where a group of teenagers was arrested and tortured for writing anti-government graffiti this action United the masses and sparked widespread outrage and protests that Lit the fire in the nation however unlike what had happened with other nations the Assad regime wasn't just ready to let go of power using the might of the military the regime responded with shockingly brutal force paying no regards for Citizens lives live rounds were used against the people arrests were widespread and brutal torture methods were implemented in a bid to quell the nation unfortunately for Assad this harsh Crackdown only fueled more descent and soon the situation escalated into a full-blown Civil War various opposition groups emerged ranging from moderate factions seeking Democratic reforms to islamist groups with more radical agendas this is where we get a lot of the chess pieces on our Syrian board on one side you have the Assad government supported by the Syrian military and a network of loyalist 9:04 militias on the other side are various Rebel groups including the free Syrian Army which is composed of defectors from the Syrian military and various islamist factions including the harat al-sham then known as al-nusra front and arar al-sham Kurdish forces primarily represented by the people's protection units ypg also became a significant player in the conflict the Kurds who had long sought autonomy in Northern Syria took advantage of the chaos to establish control over their regions the ypg and later the Syrian Democratic forces or the SDF both fought Isis and other rebel groups to secure Kurdish territories even though there were and are several factions all against the Assad regime the complexity of the opposition has made it difficult for them to unite because of their different backgrounds they have different methods to achieve their goals different goals to prioritize and a general in-house dislike for each other this has led to infighting and Power struggles within 10:00 the opposition naturally like anyone who went to a good dictator school basar alhad has exploited these divisions to maintain his grip on power part of the regime strategy has included labeling all opposition as terrorists thereby justifying its brutal Crackdown and gaining support from International allies this has resulted however in the country being broken apart with certain sections controlled by the government and others by various Rebel groups the HTS the Sunni islamist militant group responsible for this attack is the dominant group group in the northwest region of the nation in the province of idlib regarding its origin story The HDs used to be called jabat Al nusra in 2011 and it was a direct affiliate of al-Qaeda yes the al-Qaeda Isis was also involved in the formation of this group and the group was regarded as one of the most effective and deadly of the groups ranged against President Assad however its jihadist ideology appeared to be its driving force rather than revolutionary Zeal and it was seen at the time as at odds with the main Rebel coal ition under the banner of free Syria then in 2016 the group's leader Abu Muhammad Al 11:05 jalani publicly broke ranks with Al-Qaeda dissolving jabat al-nusra and set up a new organization which took the name hayat Tar Al sham when it merged with several other similar groups a year later that is how we have come to have the HTS in its current form okay I can understand that this is a lot to digest there are several players groups and complexities in serious situation okay with the local matters out of the way let's zoom out a bit and introduce other broader characters that are at play as the Syrian Civil War has raged within its borders over the years it has naturally drawn the attention of the International Community both within its region and Around The World At Large certain players each with their own interests have made their moves this is where the geopolitical chess game comes into play Let's quickly break down the major International Players involved in the Syrian conflict and their motivations we'll start with a fellow dictator for Bashar none other than than Vladimir 12:00 Putin himself you heard me mention how Russian jets are busy bombing Rebel strongholds and well that's because Russia is a staunch Ally of the Assad regime and has provided Military Support since the beginning in 2015 Russia launched a military intervention in Syria providing air support to Assad's forces and turning the tide of the conflict in his favor Russia's involvement is driven by several factors including maintaining its Naval facility in Tardis projecting power in the Middle East and countering Western influence that base is a key component as it was the price of Russia's loyalty back in 2017 in exchange for help Syria leased the naval base located on the Northern edge of the Syrian Port of tartis to Russia free of charge for a few decades to date it is the only Russian Military Base outside of the former Soviet Union the base is important to Russia for a number of reasons first up it's that it's the only Mediterranean fueling spot for Russian warships which means that they don't have to travel through Turkish Straits to return to their black Seas bases this makes them more capable 13:04 in Wartime and less predictable with the routes secondly the base serves as a strategic position it's a defensible position that allows Russia to achieve political goals also having that base in Syria allows Putin to maintain a strategic partnership with a former Soviet client state in the Arab world he is interested in former glory restoration after all Russia's presence in Syria serves as a strategic foothold in the region and a means to reassert its influence on the global stage the Russian intervention has been characterized by significant air strikes which have often targeted Rebel held areas resulting in civilian casualties and further displacement sounds like every other Tuesday for Putin another Global player in Assad's corner is Iran the Middle Eastern nation has been backing Assad with military advisors weapons and financial aid for Iran Syria is a crucial Ally in its axis of resistance against Israel and a strategic conduent to Hezbollah in 14:00 Lebanon just so we're all on the same page the axis of resistance is a network of autonomous militant islamist groups through which Iran can project power determine the course of events and deter attacks by Israel or the US Iranian forces and Iran backed militias such as Hezbollah have played a significant role in supporting Assad and fighting against Rebel groups Iran's involvement is also driven by sectarian interests both the Assad regime and Iran are primarily Shia while many of the Rebel groups s Sunni Iran's investment in Syria has been major within building military bases and deploying thousands of Fighters to bolster Assad's forces then we have the giant turkey turkey has supported various Rebel groups and conducted military operations in Northern Syria turkey's interests are twofold preventing the rise of Kurdish autonomy near its borders and curbing the influence of the Assad regime and its allies Turkish forces have launched several military incursions into Syria targeting both Isis and Kurdish militias turkey support for the Syrian opposition is also part of its broader strategy to 15:02 assert its influence in the region the ongoing conflict has resulted in strained relations with the United States over its support for Kurdish forces and created a humanitarian crisis with millions of Syrian refugees seeking shelter in turkey turkey has also caused quite a humanitarian crisis so much so that it has pissed the UN off we'll talk about that in a few minutes so stay tuned moving on is it ever a global conflict if the US does not dip its hands into the political jar I think not the United States has a more complex role initially the US supported moderate Rebel groups through programs like the cia's timber Sycamore operation which aimed to train and equip opposition Fighters however the focus shifted to combating Isis as the group's rise posed a significant threat the US has also provided support to Kurdish forces particularly the Syrian Democratic forces or SDF which played a crucial role in defeating Isis this support has strained relations with turkey a NATO Ally due to turkey's position to Kurdish 16:00 autonomy the US has also conducted air strikes Special Operation missions and provided intelligence and logistical support to its allies On The Ground American involvement has been marked by debates over the extent of intervention the withdrawal of troops and the long-term strategy in Syria it's interesting to think of the direction that this will go now that Donald Trump is going to be back in charge moving on to more players we also have the Gulf States including Saudi Arabia and qter that have funded and armed Rebel groups in an effort to counter Iranian influence in the region the gulf State's involvement is almost solely driven by sectarian rivalries and a desire to weaken Iran's Regional influence as incredibly Rich Nations Saudi Arabia and cutter have provided financial and logistical support to various factions within the Syrian opposition further complicating the landscape of the conflict their support has included arms shipments training programs and diplomatic efforts to Garner International backing for the opposition the involvement of the Gulf States has also highlighted the broader Regional power struggle between the Sunni and Shia forces Israel has not been exempt from this all either in fact Israel has 17:06 caused quite a mess in Syria something I'll dive into in just a few minutes its involvement however has not been as direct as the other Regional players but it has conducted numerous air strikes against Iranian and Hezbollah targets within Syria Israel's main concern is the presence of these forces near its border and the Potential Threat they pose the conflict has provided Israel with an opportunity to weaken its adversaries and prevent the transfer of advanced weapons to Hezbollah that is something they certainly have done extensively last but not least on our list of players we have the ever extended arm of the CCP China has taken a more limited role in the Syrian conflict compared to other major Powers but a role nonetheless while Beijing has provided some humanitarian Aid and supported diplomatic efforts its involvement has been largely cautious and focused on protecting its economic interests in maintaining stability in the region so with all these powerful 18:00 Nations invested what does this mean for Syria well each player has its own strategic objectives and their involvement has added layers of complexity to an already intricate conflict let me highlight that point by expanding into two of the powers Israel and Turkey it goes without saying that there is no love lost between Syria and Israel and so it's no wonder that Israel has been militarily active in Syria lately primarily targeting groups linked to Iran and Hezbollah over the past few weeks there have been multiple air strikes targeting hezbollah's military positions near the Syrian Lebanon border these air strikes are part of Israel's efforts to disrupt the transfer of weapons from Syria to Lebanon which Israel sees as a significant threat to its security like I said before everyone is looking out for their own security and interests on top of these air strikes Israel has also been conducting ground operations for instance the Israeli military recently carried out a special operation in Syria where they Det AED in Iranian operative this move is part of Israel's broader 19:02 strategy to prevent Iranian backed groups from setting up bases near the Golan Heights which borders Israel it is not just the Border areas that are being targeted Israel has also been hitting multiple sites in central Syria like Hama and Taris these attacks have caused significant damage and resulted in casualties the targets often included places where Iranian militias and experts are working on developing weapons which Israel wants to disrupt the reason for this Surge and activity is partially due to the growing Regional tensions involving Iran and Hezbollah the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has already escalated with both sides engaging in intense military operations and hence the increased activity Israel's actions in Syria are aimed at weakening Hezbollah and limiting Iran's influence in the region and syrians are getting caught up in the chaos with some of its citizens dying as if that's not enough we have turkey also adding to serious problems over the past few months turkey has launched numerous air strikes on Kurdish held regions in Northeast Syria these attacks have often targeted oil fields gas facilities and 20:03 power stations cutting off access to electricity and water for over a million people this comes on top of the already devastating humanitarian crisis caused by years of Civil War and severe drought Syria has been experiencing a drought since 2020 as the entire Euphrates Basin region particularly the Southern and Eastern desert areas of Syria have suffered from low rainfall and exceptionally high temperatures these conditions have significantly impacted agriculture reduced access to drinking water and diminished water reserves this water which was already scarce due to the drought became even harder to come by when the attacks by turkey on electricity infrastructure shut down the main water station in aluk Syria now more than a million people in the Haka Province depend on water deliveries from tankers that travel from Miles Away despite hundreds of deliveries each day it is not enough for people and as you can imagine this lack of water has severely impacted livelihoods people are even known to say water is more precious than gold the people in this region are 21:04 not only caught up in Syria's ongoing Civil War but also in the conflict between turkey and Kurdish Le forces turkey claims its air strikes Target Kurdish separatist groups it considers terrorists however the autonomous administration of North and East Syria anes argues that turkey aims to destroy their existence between just October of 2023 and January of 2024 turkey carried out air strikes on electricity transfer stations in several areas of the anest these attacks caused widespread power outages in the region numerous experts and international lawyers have raised concerns that these attacks could be violations of international law the un's February 2024 report suggested that the strikes on electricity infrastructure deprived civilians of essential water access and could amount to war crimes turkey however insists that it fully respects International laws and blames the water shortages on climate change and poor local infrastructure maintenance imagine that with the 22:01 country caught in a civil war and with very few parties left to intercede on behalf of the people against a giant like turkey it seems the drought and famine shall persist for a while longer at the expense of the people all this talk about struggle bullying and pain ushers us talking about the humanitarian aspects of the Syrian people it's a critical yet often overlooked part of the Grim picture it paints well today we will have to stomach it and look at how people are surviving the human cost of the Syrian conflict is staggering over 500,000 people have lost their lives and millions more have been displaced ever since this conflict began the Civil War has left a profound impact on the Syrian population with countless families torn apart and entire communities destroyed let's start with a look at the victims of the war this war has created one of the largest Refugee crises in modern history over 5.6 million syrians have fled the country seeking refuge in neighboring countries such as turkey Lebanon Jordan and Iraq that's almost 25% of the total Syrian population 23:07 additionally more than 6.7 million syrians are internally displaced within the country that's an additional 29% that are struggling internally these figures show us that more than 50% of syrians have been affected directly with the rest facing indirect problems that still changed the way people live admittedly over the years syrians have shown remarkable resilience but as the war continues hope is fading fast I mean over 90% of syrians live under the poverty line and it's estimated that 12.9 million people are food insecure such is the severity of the Syrian plight the problems don't end with Syria either the influx of refugees have placed immense strain on host countries leading to economic social and political challenges that we will take years to fix if ever zooming into the most affected demographic you can see that the conflict has had a particularly devastating impact on children many have been killed or injured While others have 24:04 been forced to flee their homes and live in dire conditions in refugee camps the disruption of education and the psychological trauma of witnessing violence have left a lasting mark on the entire generation of Syrian children organizations such as UNICEF have been working to provide education psychological support and basic necessities to these children but the needs far exceed the available resources all this had given R to the term the Syrian Lost Generation the term refers to the millions of Syrian children and young people whose lives have been profoundly affected by the ongoing Civil War this generation has faced immense challenges including the disruption of their education and childhood many of these children have grown up in refugee camps or conflict zones experiencing trauma and instability they've missed out on crucial years of schooling which has long-term implications for the Futures and opportunities of the overall development of the country the war has not only taken a toll on their physical well-being but also on their mental health with many suffering from anxiety depression and other 25:05 psychological issues the goal is to prevent this generation from being permanently lost to the consequences of war and to help them rebuild their lives and contribute to the future of Syria but given how the Civil War fire has been revived by the HTS now it's sad to say but that goal is looking heavier and heavier the more the war rages on in addition to all this the Healthcare System in Syria has been severely damaged by the conflict many Hospitals and Clinics have been destroyed and there is a severe shortage of medical supplies and Personnel diseases and injuries that could have been easily treated in peacetime have become life-threatening humanitarian organizations have been working to provide medical care but access to affected areas remains a significant challenge it's one thing to provide help in times of Peace it's another to provide help amidst a burning war I've touched on this but if I've said it in passing before or let me say it in full now Syria's economy is a mess the 26:03 economic impact on this conflict is simply staggering and not in a good way Syria's economy has been devastated with infrastructure destroyed Industries collapsed and millions of people losing their livelihoods you can imagine what the displacement and immigration of over half the population can result in it's a massive brain drain let alone Workforce disruption the economic sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union have further strained Syria's economy making reconstruction efforts even more challenging the regime's Reliance on allies such as Russia or Iran for financial and Military Support highlights its weaken State and the difficulties it faces in achieving long-term stability all these factors and others have led to the currency plummeting in value leading to hyperinflation and making basic Goods unaffordable to many syrians rebuilding the economy will require significant investment and support from the International Community it's unfortunate 27:00 that at the moment some in the community are contributing to the destruction of the nation and disruption of daily activities so with all that said what does the future hold for Syria truthfully it's hard to say the country faces immense challenges and rebuilding achieving political reconciliation and addressing the needs of millions of displaced and traumatized people the prospects for sustainable peace and Recovery depend on several factors including the willingness of the Assad regime to engage in meaning F reforms and the support of the International Community the various Rebel groups would also need to come to the table to make peace but remember what I said earlier about differing interests that fact will make it hard for a political consensus because different groups want different things and among some Rebel groups are pure terrorist groups who just Thrive off of Anarchy and Chaos reconstruction efforts will also require substantial international support and cooperation however questions remain about the willingness of international donors to invest in rebuilding a country still under Assad's rule there is also the 28:01 challenge of ensuring that reconstruction efforts benefit all syrians and do not entrench existing power structures or lead to further corruption rebuilding Syria will also require addressing the needs of its diverse population and promoting social cohesion this includes providing support for displaced populations ensuring access to education and healthare and fostering economic opportunities the psychological impact of the conflict particularly on children will also need to be addressed through comprehensive mental health and psychosocial support programs the future of Syria's territorial Integrity is also another key issue the kurdish-led autonomous Administration in the north and Northeast of Syria have established self-governance and created a deao autonomous region the status of this region as well as other areas controlled by Rebel factions will need to be resolved through negotiations and compromise the honest truth is that will be very difficult the international community's role in supporting Syria's reconstruction and Reconciliation will be crucial this includes providing 29:00 humanitarian Aid supporting political dialogue and ensuring accountability for human rights violations committed during the conflict achieving a just and Lasting peace in Syria will require addressing the root causes of the conflict promoting inclusive governance and fostering social and economic development that sounds nice on paper but when you realize that the atrocities committed and the determination of supporting International parties that hope starts to crumble away slowly it will be very difficult to achieve a lasting peace unless strong concessions are made on all sides beyond the journalism beyond the story retelling this current Rebel offensive is a stark reminder that the conflict in Syria and the Middle East in general is far from over and the situation remains incredibly volatile the complex web of alliances and enmities continues to evolve with frequent clashes and shifting front lines as this renewed conflict takes shape and lights a revolutionary fire under the nation once once again all we can do is watch as Syria once again becomes a Battleground a blood-filled field where the hope of Peace in the Middle East shall either be established or ripped apart to shreds

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