Date: 2025-01-06 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00027748
GEOPOLITICS
SYRIA
GZERO Media: Syrian rebel forces take Aleppo | Ian Bremmer's Quick Take
SYRIA
GZERO Media: Syrian rebel forces take Aleppo | Ian Bremmer's Quick Take
Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tynPb2gdVQ&t=5s
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
I have been a follower if Ian Bremmer, GZERO and his other feeds for a long time including Ian's many presentations at the Japan Society and other events in New York.
My take is that Ian Bremmer is one of the best commentators on world affairs ... though in the past year I have found myself not agreeing with the Bremmer take as world events seem to getting more and more 'out-of-control'.
Even though I have lived in the USA since the 1960s, I am more comfortable with British international policy than what America does. Britan's post WWII economic clout has been very small compared to that of the USA, but the American policy framework and allocation of resources has been utterly ridiculous.
There are some really good American diplomats ... but the American system also puts a lot of appallingly bad diplomats in high positions around the world. Many of the stories are 'funny' though not so much when related to the important work that should be getting done.
In my own experience some of the American international decisions have been appalling and insulting. I had a role in advising Namibia in connection with its first development plan after independence. I was part of a three person team that developed the plan which was then used in connection with a UN orgasnized funding conference in New York. Subsequently I was called back to Namibia to help with the actual disbursement of the funds commited at the funding conference in New York. Working with Japan, the funds in play were some $50 million. Working with the USA the funds in play were $50,000 ... hardly enough to buy a pick-up truck. This made the USA look ridiclous ... which is a shame, but it also reflects the level of incompetence in high place in the United States that has existed for a long time and gets worse rather than better over time. In the Namibia case, I lost my cool and after a very undiplomatic confrontation was able to move the $50,000 to $500,000 ... better but not in the same league as the Japanese!
This anecdote goes back to the early 1990s ... but the issue of value for money in much US policy has only become worse. President Dwight D. Eisenhower warned about the role of the 'Military Industry Complex' in the 1950s and he was right ... but it has flourished and the civilian economy and society is paying the price. The prices being paid for modern military equipment and supplies are ridulously high and the accountability is about as weak as it possibly could be!
Ian Bremmer makes me think ... even though I don't always agree with him!
Peter Burgess
GZERO Media
Dec 1, 2024
127K subscribers ... 50,248 views ... 1.1K likes
#Aleppo #Syria #QuickTake
A new front in the Middle East war has just opened up in Syria. Ian Bremmer unpacks what’s going on in a new Quick Take.
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Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:
Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take, post-run, on a Sunday because the news does not wait for us to get back from our extended Thanksgiving weekend.
I want to talk about a new front in the Middle East war that has just opened up in Syria, a country that is far from stable and not really a country, really a patchwork of different controls in the best of times. But now we have active war fighting, a new front opening up with lots of territory being taken from Bashar al-Assad, his dictatorial regime from Syria Rebels, particularly a group called HTS, which is the most powerful of the military opposition groups in the country. They have swept, in a matter of hours, through the country, taking over Aleppo, the major city, and moving towards Hama. There is lots of humanitarian concern here. Not a surprise. You don't have hospitals functioning in Aleppo. You've got all sorts, thousands and thousands of people fleeing and nowhere obvious to go.
This should not be an enormous surprise in the sense that HTS has been agitating the Turkish government who support them to march on Aleppo for months. And in the same way that the Iranians had been green-lighting support for all of their proxies across the region to engage in strikes against the United States, against Israel, against shipping, all of that, Turkey did not want to do that. They didn't want to back and offensive. They were pretty split on it. The hawks inside Erdogan's government in Turkey, like the idea in order to expand opposition, put more pressure on a side, facilitate the return of more Syrian refugees from Turkey back into Syria, and also strengthen Erdogan's hand in bringing Assad back to the negotiating table for a normalization of ties under Turkey's terms. But a lot of people inside Turkey were saying that Russia would carpet bomb Turkish-backed forces and Turkish forces on the ground in Syria, of which there are thousands, which would humiliate Erdogan and cause broader tension with Russia that could well have major economic implications. We've seen that before, and this is a time when Turkey doesn't really want to afford that. They're trying to rebuild their economy from what has been a lot of damage.
It looks like now Ankara has given the go ahead to these militants in Syria, in part because the geopolitics of the region is changing. The Russians, of course, are themselves very distracted, not just with an ongoing war in Ukraine, which has been happening for three years now, but specifically because they've got two months to take as much land as possible, put the Ukrainians in the worst possible position before Trump is president and says he wants to end that war. So in other words, everything they have, they're really now putting into that fight against Ukraine.
Meanwhile, the Iranian-supported proxies across the region are getting utterly hammered, as we've seen from the United States, and more importantly from Israel and the successful war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Read full transcript: https://www.gzeromedia.com/quick-take...
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#QuickTake #Syria #Aleppo
Transcript
- 0:00
- - Hi everybody, Ian Bremmer here,
- and a Quick Take, post-run, on a Sunday
- because the news does not wait for us
- to get back from our extended Thanksgiving weekend.
- I want to talk about a new front
- in the Middle East war that has just opened up in Syria,
- a country that is far from stable
- and not really a country, really a patchwork
- of different controls in the best of times,
- but now we have active war fighting a new front
- opening up with lots of territory being taken
- from Bashar al-Assad, his dictatorial regime
- from Syria Rebels, particularly a group called HTS,
- which is the most powerful
- of the military opposition groups in the country.
- They have swept in a matter of hours
- through the country, taking over Aleppo,
- the major city and moving towards Hama.
- There is lots of humanitarian concern here.
- 1:03
- Not a surprise.
- You don't have, you know,
- hospitals functioning in Aleppo.
- You've got all sorts,
- thousands and thousands of people fleeing
- and nowhere obvious to go.
- This should not be an enormous surprise
- in the sense that HTS has been agitating
- the Turkish government who support them
- to march on Aleppo for months.
- And in the same way that the Iranians
- had been green lighting support
- for all of their proxies across the region,
- to engage in strikes against the United States,
- against Israel, against shipping,
- all of that Turkey did not want to do that.
- They didn't want to back an offensive.
- They were pretty split on it.
- The hawks inside Erdogan's government in Turkey
- like the idea in order to expand opposition,
- put more pressure on Assad,
- 2:03
- facilitate the return of more Syrian refugees
- from Turkey back into Syria,
- and also strengthen Erdogan's hand
- in bringing Assad back to the negotiating table
- for a normalization of ties under Turkey's terms.
- But a lot of people inside Turkey were saying
- that Russia would carpet bomb Turkish-backed forces
- and Turkish forces on the ground in Syria,
- of which there are thousands,
- which would humiliate Erdogan
- and cause broader tension with Russia
- that could well have major economic implications.
- We've seen that before, and this is a time
- when Turkey doesn't really want to afford that.
- They're trying to rebuild their economy
- from what has been a lot of damage it looks like now.
- Ankara has given the go ahead
- to these militants in Syria,
- in part because the geopolitics of the region is changing.
- 3:01
- The Russians, of course, are themselves very distracted,
- not just with an ongoing war in Ukraine,
- which has been happening for three years now,
- but specifically because they've got two months
- to take as much land as possible,
- put the Ukrainians in the worst possible position
- before Trump is president as he wants to end that war.
- So, in other words, everything they have,
- they're really now putting into that fight against Ukraine.
- Meanwhile, the Iranians supported proxies
- across the region are getting utterly hammered,
- as we've seen from the United States,
- and more importantly from Israel
- and the successful war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
- So in that regard, the changing
- of the geopolitics has really given the upper hands
- of the hawks in Turkey to tell HTS go for it.
- This is an opportunity, unique time
- to improve your position.
- Still, they're not fully backing the offensive,
- 4:01
- they're not backing it directly militarily,
- nor are they fully backing it diplomatically as they did,
- for example, with the Free Syria Army, the FSA,
- with number of cross-border operations
- in northern Syria in the past decade.
- Now, Russia has been humiliated on the ground.
- These Syrian troops in Aleppo
- folded and ran away immediately.
- The Russians have sacked senior soldiers
- in charge of operations on the ground,
- and it looks like they are preparing
- to send troops into Syria directly
- in the next 24 to 48 hours to shore up Assad.
- Assad, there's a lot of land that HTS would have to take
- before they were direct threat to regime.
- Hard to imagine they're going to be able to overthrow 'em.
- Also, the Iranians are providing support.
- We already see that Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
- aligned militias across the region
- 5:02
- are saying they will enter Syria
- to engage in the fight against HTS
- in favor of the Assad regime.
- I expect you'll see significant numbers
- of actual IRGC advisors showing up as well.
- So it doesn't look like this is the end of Assad.
- And frankly, it's hard to imagine
- that Turkey itself even wants to have Assad out
- because filling the void completely left
- by a weakened Iran would be challenging for Turkey
- and would also lead to more conflict with the Russians,
- rather who importantly have a military base,
- a port in Tartus that is very important
- for them having influence in the Mediterranean.
- Rather, Turkey's trying to use this space to try
- to shape regional events to their benefits.
- It's very positive what's happened
- so far in the last 48 hours for Turkey.
- It weakens Assad, makes him more open to a bad deal
- 6:02
- with Turkey than he has been before.
- And further, HTS is also moving farther away
- from Turkey's border, which is a good thing
- because Ankara doesn't have full control over them.
- Again, like Iran with its proxies,
- lot of weapons, lot of diplomatic support,
- but that's very different from operational
- control on the ground.
- And I expect that Erdogan sees this as an opportunity
- for Trump where he says, 'We'll cut a deal with you,'
- you Trump get to exit Syria.'
- Still American troops on the ground there.
- Yet, one more place you can say
- that the Americans don't need to be,
- don't need to fight and have an America First Policy.
- And one more war that you get
- to formally not be a part of.
- And we, Turkey, will make sure
- that there's no ISIS affiliated organizations on the ground,
- that the region is more stable,
- that Iranian influences curtailed,
- and the Shia Crescent is severed.
- 7:01
- So if it works, one stone, lots of birds for Erdogan.
- The danger, of course, is that it doesn't work
- and that the war expands
- and that we end up with Russia versus Turkey
- in a proxy war that can become direct between the two.
- Wouldn't be the first time that we've seen
- that kind of confrontation,
- that, it'd be a lot more problematic.
- But at this point, the one thing I can say
- is that this is much more about the proxies fighting
- in a vacuum with a changing geopolitical balance
- than it is about the likelihood that Assad
- is about to be out.
- He wasn't out when Obama said Assad must go.
- He's not likely to be out right now.
- Okay, that's it for me.
- We'll keep following this,
- and I'll talk to you all real soon.
- (upbeat music)
- (electronic tone chiming)