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GEOPOLITICS GLOBAL RAMIFICATIONS OF ASSAD FAIL IN SYRIA Times Radio: Putin and Xi Jinping rattled as Assad's collapse shatters grand plans PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8-VVUQ9HIw Peter Burgess COMMENTARY For around 25 years before the turn of the century I did a lot of international work including assignments in more than half of the countries in the Middle East. I got to see 'up-close' the changes that became possible after the price of crude oil went from $3.00 a barrel to $13,50 to $30 and peaked at over $100 a barrel beefore settle back to a range of around $30 to around $60. While there is now an obscene amount of financial wealth in the region ... the region also has huge problems with few obvious easy solutions. From my perspective, the departure of Assad is very good news ... but it is going to require some smart diplomacy for Syria to emerge peaceful and productive. So far, so good! But the problems are many and there are multiple interests involved that will not be easy to resolve. The difficulties will be magnified is Russia, Iran and others decide to engage in opposition to what seems to be the dominant groups at this time! Peter Burgess
Times Radio: Putin and Xi Jinping rattled as Assad's collapse shatters grand plans Dec 11, 2024 1.11M subscribers ... 167,467 views ... 3.9K likes ✪ Members first on December 11, 2024 Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security “China really saw it a a broader chess piece, a broader way of building its influence in the Middle East. And this will be a blow to Beijing.” The downfall of Assad in Syria has been a “major blow” to Putin and Xi Jinping as China's plans to expand into Middle East are “rattled”, says Ian Williams, journalist and author of ‘Vampire State. The rise and fall of the Chinese Economy’. Join this channel to get access to perks - / @listentotimesradio 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Explore the podcast 641 episodes Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security Times Radio Transcript 0:00 China really saw it as a a broader um chest piece a broader way of building its influence in the Middle East and this will be a blow to Beijing perhaps not on the same scale as Iran and Russia which had far more strategic interests there but certainly a blow to China and China's Prestige hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio I'm James Hansen and today I'm delighted to be joined Again by Ian Williams an award-winning journalist and China expert his latest book is called vampire State the rise and fall of the China economy Ian's also been a foreign correspondent for NBC News and channel 4 news and previously worked for the Sunday Times and over the years he's covered conflicts in the Balkans the Middle East and Ukraine Ian it's always a pleasure welcome back good to be back let's begin with the very dramatic events in Syria over recent weeks there's been a lot of talk about the impact on Iran and there's been a lot of talk about the impact on Russia but China had a lot at stake in Syria as well so talk us through the impact on Xi Jinping and 1:00 yeah China coing up to Assad was very 1:03 much seen as part of their efforts to 1:05 improve to increase their influence in 1:07 the Middle East now yes we've seen Iran 1:11 Russia this is a a strategic blow to 1:13 both of them but of course Assad was in 1:16 Beijing in Hano visited China given a 1:19 very a very high-profile visit last year 1:22 China made him what they described as a 1:24 strategic partner just a few months 1:26 earlier he they'd allowed Syria to join 1:29 the Belton Road and initiative this big 1:31 International infrastructure building uh 1:34 program that China has although of 1:36 course it's more than that it's more of 1:37 an influence building program so they 1:40 were very close to Assad and while Iran 1:43 and Russia provided the muscle provided 1:45 the guns China was providing the money 1:48 was providing the development Aid now 1:50 how much of that has had gone in is an 1:52 open question because the BR tends to be 1:55 big on promises but slower to deliver so 1:58 it's harder to say how many people China 2:01 had in Damascus when Damascus fell but 2:04 certainly the embassy was rattled um 2:07 judging by what's been in Chinese State 2:09 media they were pretty shocked pretty 2:11 surprised by what had happened just as 2:13 they were drawing closer to Assad and 2:15 just as they were convinced that Iran 2:18 and Russia had provided the stability 2:20 under which they could extend their 2:22 economic influence in that country and 2:24 Beyond I understand what Syria was 2:27 getting out of that Chinese support but 2:29 what was China getting from Syria I mean 2:32 okay if you're Iran you understand it 2:34 because it's an ally and you it extends 2:36 the Shia cresence I understand it from 2:38 Russia's perspective because they can 2:39 have Naval and air bases there what was 2:41 China getting from that relationship it 2:43 was looking to broadly extend its 2:45 influence in the Middle East and I think 2:47 it saw Assad as being one more building 2:49 block in this China really very much 2:52 sees itself as being in this 2:54 International competition for influence 2:56 with the United States with the West 2:58 more broadly and it saw this as another 3:01 building block another way of extending 3:03 that influence now China traditionally 3:06 its economic relations internationally 3:09 it's not really been too bothered by the 3:11 sort of people it's cozying up to in 3:14 fact arguably the BR has been more 3:16 comfortable in the company of 3:18 kleptocrats and and Thugs and of course 3:21 they don't come worse than Assad um and 3:24 even by those 3:25 standards um China coing up to him being 3:29 the first the foreign minister the first 3:31 to visit um Syria after the the 3:34 so-called reelection the rigged election 3:36 that brought Assad back to power a 3:37 couple of years ago so China really saw 3:40 it as a a broader um chess piece a 3:43 broader way of building its influence in 3:45 the Middle East and this will be a blow 3:48 to Beijing perhaps not on the same scale 3:50 as Iran and Russia which had far more 3:52 strategic interests there but certainly 3:54 a blow to China and China's Prestige but 3:57 I wonder whether Beijing tan and Moscow 4:00 will have a a common reaction in the 4:02 sense that it will remind all of them 4:04 these autocratic regimes which can 4:05 appear very stable can crumble very 4:07 quickly and if you're Putin if you're a 4:09 she if you're the AAS that is alarming 4:11 extraordinarily quickly um it it is I 4:15 once had a conversation with iway wayi 4:18 the the Chinese artist and I was asking 4:20 him specifically about Z Jin ping and 4:23 the stability of the Chinese regime and 4:25 and Wei wayi said often if you look at 4:27 Chinese history um autocrats Emperors 4:30 are at their weakest when they appear to 4:32 be at their strongest and I think you 4:34 can it's counterintuitive but you can 4:37 use that measure across a number of 4:39 countries and a number of locations and 4:42 I I think it will have come as a shock 4:43 it will have come as a surprise the 4:45 sheer Pace at which it unfolded and and 4:49 their belief that by backing him they 4:51 were backing a a stable leader 4:53 irrespective of the thuggery that he was 4:55 responsible for now perhaps 4:58 understandably because there has been so 5:00 much focus on Syria in the past week 5:02 what has almost gone unnoticed slipped 5:04 under the radar almost is what's been 5:06 happening around Taiwan so talk us 5:08 through what's been happening there aan 5:10 well this is being seen as the biggest 5:12 military exercise that China has 5:14 undertaken in the region since According 5:16 to some analysts 1996 which was um a 5:20 year when Taiwan held its first fully 5:24 Democratic presidential elections and 5:26 China thre a militarized tantrum in 5:29 response to to that now according to 5:31 reports we're seeing there are upwards 5:34 of a 100 ships taking part in this and 5:36 what's significant it's not concentrated 5:39 so much on Taiwan so much on an embargo 5:42 of Taiwan so much on rehearsing for 5:45 action against Taiwan but the area is 5:47 much broader um which suggests that the 5:50 message that's being sent is equally to 5:53 the United States and to Western allies 5:56 um there's there's a a mil in the 5:57 military jargon there's an an access 6:00 area denial uh which means effectively 6:03 keeping the Americans out of the fight 6:06 should um China decide to embargo or to 6:09 invade Taiwan and this would seem to fit 6:12 into that category which suggests the 6:15 message is more for the incoming 6:17 Administration in the states more for 6:19 Donald Trump um or equally for him as it 6:22 is for the leadership in Taipei well on 6:25 that note China has also launched 6:26 investigation into the American chip 6:28 company in so is that also part of this 6:32 we're trying to send a message to the 6:33 incoming Trump Administration it is it's 6:35 part of a whole bunch of things that 6:37 we've seen coming out of Beijing just in 6:39 these last few days uh designed to send 6:42 a message to Trump that message being 6:44 that we have ways that we can retaliate 6:48 and that with which we will retaliate 6:50 now Nvidia which is responsible for the 6:52 really high-end chips for artificial 6:54 intelligence a very valuable company 6:57 China has launched what it calls an anti 7:00 competition um investigation now a lot 7:02 of companies doing business in China 7:04 will not be surprised by that because 7:06 there are numerous tools which the 7:08 Chinese government has to keep Western 7:11 companies um on the straight and narrow 7:14 to punish them to remind them who's in 7:16 charge and this is clearly designed to 7:19 do that I mean the video chips um are 7:22 not the American government has sought 7:24 to limit Chinese access to Top End chips 7:27 that are are made by Nvidia so this is 7:29 the the the Chinese Communist party's 7:31 way of of saying well hey you know we 7:34 can also do a bit of damage to that 7:35 company and of course this comes at the 7:37 same time as an embargo that China has 7:41 put on the sale of several critical 7:43 minerals to the United States and 7:46 several components used in the 7:47 manufacturer of drones these are 7:49 minerals which China controls the supply 7:52 chain of controls the processing of at 7:55 the same time um just yesterday um China 7:58 has warned that they may 7:59 um put sanctions on American politicians 8:03 um who it says to quote have the wrong 8:04 attitude on Hong Kong so taken together 8:08 I think this is a message um to to Trump 8:12 that two can play at this game should 8:14 the US decide to impose more tariffs on 8:17 on China um it's a high stakes game 8:20 because um economists would argue China 8:23 has far more to lose and full-throated 8:25 tariffs could cut China's growth rate by 8:29 half 8:30 at a time when the economy is already 8:31 looking pretty fragile I want to come 8:33 back to the Chinese economy in a moment 8:35 just on the sanctions on us politicians 8:37 is there any precedent for that in 8:39 America I know in the UK certain sort of 8:42 China Hawk MPS people like seran Duncan 8:44 Smith the former conservative leader 8:46 who's been very critical of Beijing he's 8:47 been sanctioned many other MPS as well 8:50 is there a precedent for that in the US 8:52 or is this new no several have been in 8:55 fact the incoming Secretary of State 8:56 Marco Rubio himself has been sanctioned 8:59 with the same um style sanctions that 9:02 we've seen against uh British 9:04 politicians and again it was for his 9:06 outspoken comments on Shing Jang on 9:08 human rights abuses there they going to 9:10 maintain that even once he becomes 9:11 Secretary of State well that's that's a 9:13 question because of course technically 9:14 speaking uh even if he wanted to go to 9:17 China it would be somewhat limited if 9:19 the sanctions were still outstanding 9:21 against him so it will be intriguing to 9:24 see how that plays out as the new 9:26 Administration gets into its stride it's 9:28 an issue Al it it's a bit like whether 9:30 HTS remains a prescribed terror group 9:32 for the US and the UK indeed yeah I mean 9:34 you can't do you can't really do 9:36 business China can't really do business 9:38 with the us if it maintains sanctions 9:41 against its top Diplomat so you 9:43 mentioned the Chinese economy and give 9:44 us a sense of the struggles it's 9:46 currently having and the panic I don't 9:48 know if that's the right word that this 9:49 is causing in Beijing it is causing 9:52 major concerns there we've seen a whole 9:56 slew of different um initiatives taken 9:59 by Beijing to try and boost the economy 10:02 to try and pump more money into the 10:04 markets most of which have underwhelmed 10:07 and haven't had the impact they'd wanted 10:10 this week in Beijing a top party body 10:12 which goes roughly by the name the the 10:15 economic Works committee which cones up 10:17 an image of a know Municipal Council 10:20 arranging to dig holes in the road but 10:22 it is an incredibly important committee 10:25 and um economists investors analysts are 10:29 looking to see what emerges from that of 10:32 any substance to try and um help the the 10:36 economy get on a a shorer footing um but 10:39 nothing which has has been done so far 10:41 has had that impact and we're seeing 10:43 continuing anemic rates of growth by 10:46 Chinese standards High rates of youth 10:48 unemployment a property Market which 10:51 simply isn't recovering um a lack of any 10:54 sort of consumer confidence so they so 10:57 any plans to try and get the consumer to 11:00 do more to spend more in China aren't 11:02 coming through um so the economic issues 11:05 are very very significant and China does 11:08 stand to lose a lot um should we see a 11:10 full-fledged um or intensification of 11:13 the trade War when Trump comes into 11:15 office and when you say they are now 11:17 trying different initiatives to try and 11:19 drive economic growth again what kind of 11:21 initiatives because traditionally in 11:23 China over recent decades has been big 11:25 infrastructure but you know that that's 11:27 also reaches limit you've now got roads 11:28 to know in developments there's no one 11:30 living in so so what are they trying now 11:32 well yeah I mean the the drivers of the 11:34 economy until now have been property and 11:36 of course that bubble is bursting uh 11:38 even and a great deal some something 11:41 like 70 or 80% of the personal wealth of 11:43 the middle class in China are tied up in 11:45 property so there's no great confidence 11:47 there the bubble continues to bth to 11:50 burst um the infrastructure spending you 11:54 you're simply not getting the returns 11:55 because there are only so many bridges 11:57 and power stations and Road roads that 12:00 you can build then there's the export Le 12:02 economy which was a driving force of of 12:05 of the economy in the past well yes 12:07 they're building Factories at a massive 12:09 Pace they're trying to redirect 12:11 investment into particularly renewable 12:14 Technologies but the world and not just 12:16 the West is far more wary of that 12:18 because there have been heavy subsidies 12:21 they see this as unfair competition and 12:24 it's far more difficult for China to 12:26 turn that into a new motor of the 12:28 economy the other motor which XI jimping 12:31 talks about is what he calls um High um 12:35 high-end manufacturing Innovation he 12:38 wants to turn China into a self- 12:40 sustaining Innovation economy but the 12:43 problem is that sits at odds with his 12:45 obsession with control you know the 12:47 Communist party wants to be in every 12:48 laboratory in every school um in every 12:51 boardroom and that's not necessarily 12:54 conducive with with Innovation which 12:56 requires what giving people a bit more 12:58 room um giving them a bit more 13:00 initiative um giving the market more 13:02 space giving private companies 13:05 particularly the technology companies 13:06 more room and everything he's done has 13:09 been counter to that so it's very 13:11 difficult I mean I would argue I argue 13:13 in the book that I just don't think 13:15 meaningful reform of the economy is 13:17 possible under G Jinping because of his 13:19 personality because of his ideology yeah 13:22 and because of his obsession with 13:23 control and power and security um you it 13:27 it needs a loosening of the range 13:29 which runs contrary to everything he 13:31 stands for I mean his position in many 13:33 respects looks more secure than ever but 13:35 are there people around him who if they 13:37 were in his position would allow some 13:39 liberalization of the economy I think so 13:42 because uh a lot of Chinese economists 13:45 and analysts recognize the issues with 13:47 the economy the last two prime ministers 13:50 have essentially said the old model is 13:53 unsustainable you know we need a new we 13:55 need a new model a new driver for the 13:57 economy uh but it's difficult to see how 14:00 that will emerge when you've got the 14:01 sort of mindset that surrounds G Jin 14:04 ping and also a system which is so 14:07 centralized where power is concentrated 14:10 so much on G that people tend to tell 14:12 him what he wants to hear rather than 14:14 necessarily what's best for the economy 14:17 and we've we've seen these continuing 14:19 purges in the military um for instance 14:22 one of the the top uh military 14:24 commanders was recent was recently cered 14:27 for corruption um what he corrupt it's 14:30 hard to say because corruption is such a 14:32 an umbrella for all sorts of 14:34 misdemeanors and all sorts of political 14:37 opposition within China you you you 14:39 don't really know what's fully behind it 14:41 but you sens discontent there how deep 14:45 is that discontent what might it mean 14:47 for X is much is much more more 14:49 difficult to tell but I think with the 14:51 tensions we're going to see with the you 14:53 the new US Administration playing out 14:55 over the coming weeks it's you it's 14:57 intriguing and interesting that you 14:58 mentioned earlier about the fact that 15:00 the middle class in China has a huge 15:02 amount of its wealth tied up in property 15:05 and kind of going back to what we were 15:06 talking about earlier in the way that 15:07 these autocratic regimes can come under 15:09 threat if you're an autocratic regime 15:11 and the middle classes are feeling 15:13 poorer than they were before and a 15:14 feeling that their economy is is under 15:17 threat that's not that's not a great 15:18 situation it's not and it's always been 15:20 the irony with China in that um a lot of 15:24 the the main support for the the Chinese 15:26 Communist party it's a a nominally Comm 15:29 in his party has come from the middle 15:30 class because they've tended to benefit 15:33 from the econom the phenomenal rates of 15:35 economic growth that we have seen and 15:37 they've also benefited from the sort of 15:39 stability which the party would argue 15:41 that it's it's bought to the country and 15:43 they they've brought into the um the 15:46 deal if you like that they will reap the 15:50 the economic benefits the the the fruit 15:52 of a an expanding economy um for 15:55 political docility and the problem is 15:59 when you have an economy which isn't 16:01 growing uh which is facing um profound 16:04 problems um and signs we're seeing all 16:08 over China data on protests for instance 16:13 on demonstrations particularly related 16:15 to property disputes to um companies 16:19 going bust uh stability also is 16:22 something that starts to come into 16:24 question and I think that that's one of 16:26 the things we need to look out for in 16:28 the year ahead year ahead is this the 16:31 the crumbling of this pact this almost 16:33 social pact between the party and 16:35 particularly the middle class um you 16:37 know we'll give you growth we'll give 16:38 you economic opportunities but forget 16:41 about the politics we hope you're 16:42 enjoying today's episode of Frontline 16:44 don't forget you can also now listen to 16:46 Frontline in podcast form just search 16:49 for the world in 10 from wherever you 16:51 get your podcasts where you can also 16:53 hear daily analysis of the biggest 16:55 stories relating to war and defense and 16:57 we'll put a link to the world in 10 in 16:59 the description below just looking at it 17:00 for a moment from the US perspective do 17:03 you expect Donald Trump to further ramp 17:05 up tensions and the trade war with China 17:08 I mean Joe Biden kind of followed on 17:10 from what the Trump Administration 17:12 started when he took office do you 17:14 expect Donald Trump to pick up the ball 17:16 and take it even further well certainly 17:17 he's made some pretty hawkish 17:19 appointments um I Secretary of State 17:23 National Security advisor these are 17:26 people who have been very outspoken 17:28 about the need to confront China um they 17:31 think that China's taken a free ride on 17:33 the global economy and on the United 17:35 States has has stolen technology has 17:39 ignored the rules for so long that that 17:41 China needs to be confronted on this um 17:45 but then I guess if if Trump has one uh 17:49 diplomatic strength it's 17:51 unpredictability and you've got on the 17:53 one hand the the China Hawks who he's 17:56 appointed and brought in there on the 17:57 other hand you've got you know Elon Musk 18:00 whose businesses are heavily dependent 18:03 upon China and Chinese favor uh what's 18:07 going to be intriguing we've seen this 18:08 shot across the bows of of Nvidia but of 18:11 course two of the most high-profile 18:13 investors in China are Apple and Tesla 18:17 two blue chip American companies two of 18:19 the best known American companies on the 18:22 planet and they are heavily invested in 18:24 China as as a production base as a 18:27 market now You could argue that they 18:30 would perhaps be juicy targets for China 18:32 if it was looking for high-profile means 18:35 of retaliation but then it's more 18:37 complicated that than that because Elon 18:40 Musk Tim Cook have both been big 18:42 cheerleaders for engagement with China 18:45 so if you are XI Jin ping sitting in the 18:47 jongen high leadership compound you'd 18:49 probably see apple and and Tesla as 18:52 important assets that could actually 18:55 help push your case in Washington so you 18:57 might not wish to sanction them or to be 19:00 seen to be moving against them because 19:03 um they're arguing your corner so why 19:05 would you do that and just to return to 19:07 the issue of Taiwan I mean I feel like 19:09 we ask well I ask this question every 19:11 time I I see you but given the military 19:13 exercises we've seen this week do does 19:16 that make an invasion more likely in the 19:19 next 12 months I think what we should 19:22 look out for is not so much an I think 19:23 an invasion would be well signposted the 19:26 Shia Logistics are mounting and invasion 19:29 in terms of the number of people the 19:31 number of assets uh the 19:35 limitations geography climate it's all 19:38 on the side of the defenders in Taiwan 19:40 it would not be easy to invade Taiwan 19:43 and to try and to fail would probably be 19:45 the end of XI Jin ping and possibly the 19:47 Chinese Communist Party far more likely 19:50 I think is the the Anaconda strategy as 19:54 it's been described um the squeezing of 19:57 the island perh elements of an embargo 20:00 stopping ships stopping planes 20:03 questioning ships um an intensification 20:05 of the Cyber War the information War um 20:08 The Mysterious cutting of of internet 20:11 cables to outlying Islands these are all 20:14 gray Zone strategies which China is 20:16 already engaged in and which it can 20:18 intensify and the problem for any 20:20 American Administration um who would 20:23 seek to you know where's your red line 20:26 know where do you where do you say 20:28 that's enough because China is a master 20:30 at pushing um that that line and and I 20:34 would see it more likely to have an 20:36 intensification of these gray gray 20:39 Warfare elements um over the over the 20:43 coming months as a way of testing the 20:45 administration and testing their uh 20:48 commitment to the defense of Taiwan on a 20:51 slightly different note but related to 20:52 China we're recording this two weeks 20:54 from Christmas there are a lot of the 20:56 classic Christmas cyber scams doing the 21:00 rounds as always how responsible is 21:02 China for those well that's a very good 21:05 question because the the the the global 21:08 Center the epicenter for cyber scamming 21:11 um is now the Far East um there are a 21:14 lot of special economic zones as they 21:16 call which dot the Mong River I visited 21:19 a couple of them when I was researching 21:21 um vampire state they're they're they're 21:24 run predominantly by Chinese gangsters 21:27 the biggest and most notorious is in La 21:29 a place called The Golden Triangle 21:30 special economic zone run by a gangster 21:33 called jaia who's been sanctioned by 21:36 America by Britain by numerous others 21:38 for everything from drun gun running to 21:41 drugs um to Wildlife tra illegal 21:44 Wildlife trade and these these special 21:47 zones their biggest money spinner now 21:50 are cyber scams everything from the sale 21:53 of dubious Investments to the infamous 21:56 romance scam when you befriended by 21:58 someone who appears to uh it's a stolen 22:02 profile and you end up transferring um 22:05 cash or or other Assets Now China has 22:09 always been very close to the Triads as 22:12 as Chinese organized crime is called the 22:15 party has never been shy about using 22:17 them and the problem is that these 22:20 special economic zones uh claim to be 22:22 under the brella of the belt and Road 22:25 initiative uh they claim loyalty to 22:27 China the gangsters are treated by the 22:30 host governments which tend to be very 22:32 weak in Cambodia in LA in Myanmar as 22:36 representatives of the Chinese 22:37 government and jawe and La has won a nu 22:40 numerous Awards just one the other day 22:43 um for so-called economic contribution 22:46 to the host country um law enforcement 22:50 internationally and in the region is 22:51 pulling its hair out because until very 22:54 recently it was very difficult to get 22:56 China to take these places seriously 22:58 recently there have been raids on some 23:00 of the more notorious um special zones 23:04 but cynics would say this is because 23:05 they have been targeting China instead 23:07 of internationally uh which has sort of 23:11 been regarded almost as as fur game so 23:14 at this time of year when cyber scams 23:16 tend to be at their height uh we're 23:20 we're seeing these areas thriving and 23:23 we're not seeing China sort of take the 23:25 kind of action against them which 23:27 certainly in law enforcement in the 23:29 region believes they should and could do 23:32 couple of things to finish off first of 23:34 all what did you make of what happened 23:36 in South Korea last week and the attempt 23:38 by the president to impose martial law 23:41 it was extraordinary because I think 23:44 many others had assumed that South Korea 23:47 the stability of South Korean democracy 23:50 um South Korean Democratic institutions 23:53 were deeply entrenched and I think it 23:55 was all the more shocking to see 23:59 initially um what is being now described 24:02 as as an an attempted coup I guess it's 24:06 reassuring that that South Korea 24:09 reasserted itself that democracy appears 24:11 to have reasserted reasserted itself and 24:15 the president is being held to account 24:17 but certainly I was surprised I think it 24:20 did create a lot of shock among South 24:22 Korea's um allies and also among those 24:27 who had been you know impressed by the 24:29 president's ability to reach out to Old 24:32 enemy Japan to be more robust on China 24:35 for instance geop geopolitically he was 24:38 playing all the right cards with the US 24:40 Administration um with the West uh but 24:44 has been deeply unpopular perhaps we 24:46 took our Eye Off the Ball deeply deeply 24:48 unpopular domestically and just finally 24:51 looking into 2025 what are you expecting 24:54 in terms of foreign policy from the 24:56 second Trump Administration a lot of 24:58 people talk about his isolationism but 25:00 do you expect him 25:03 to withdraw America from World 25:05 engagements or do you think maybe that's 25:07 overstated I think it's overstated I 25:09 think rhetorically you'll see a lot of 25:12 America First and rhetorically you'll 25:13 see a lot of pressure say on Europe to 25:17 uh play a bigger role whether it's in 25:19 Ukraine or in or in terms of their own 25:22 of their own defense but I think one of 25:24 the issues that Trump will face is 25:26 everything tends to be connected because 25:29 if you put pressure on Ukraine uh to 25:32 enter into a a peace deal which benefits 25:38 Putin then you're also sending a signal 25:40 to China about lack of resolve in 25:44 supporting an ally and and that could be 25:47 very a dangerous thing to do as China 25:49 starts to calculate about what it should 25:52 do how fast it should increase pressure 25:55 around Taiwan even plan for an invasion 25:57 of Taiwan so I think every everything is 26:00 linked up um as I say the only thing 26:03 that's predictable about Trump is is 26:05 unpredictability it's hard to know how 26:07 the second presidency will um will pan 26:11 out um to me it was intriguing recently 26:14 talking to people in Kiev um and asking 26:17 them about uh what they thought of 26:19 another a coming Trump Administration 26:21 and I'd expected them to throw their 26:23 hands in the air in horror but one of 26:25 the replies I had was no well actually 26:28 you know B dealing with Biden was deeply 26:31 frustrating um the promises were slow to 26:34 come the delivery was slow um it it was 26:37 very difficult to to to the 26:40 conditionality on the weapons the the 26:42 type of weapons he was willing to supply 26:45 um but at least with Trump we might get 26:47 some clarity it might not be the clarity 26:49 we want and if he should try and do a 26:52 deal with Putin he'll quickly learn that 26:56 that's not possible and and could well 27:00 be humiliated by that which of course Trump does not like at all so you know I think I'm not I I don't take the view that we're on a an inevitable slope towards American isolationism and the undermining of of Western institutions and alliances um I think the rhetoric will certainly be there but I would be cautious to predict the direction it goes in in reality once that the Trump Administration is bedded in I it's always fascinating talking to you thank you so much for your time a pleasure thank you for watching today's episode of Frontline for Early Access to our videos member only q&as and live streams and sign up for a membership via the link in the description and for the latest news and breaking stories listen to times radio and follow us at the times.com

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