The Point with Chris Cillizza ... Does the Roe ruling have a political silver lining for Democrats?
by Chris Cillizza and Shania Shelton
June 27, 2022
Seventy-two hours removed from the landmark overturning of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court, there are signs that the judgment may have woken up the long-dormant Democratic base in advance of this year's midterm elections.
A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll had two striking findings:
- ) More than 3 in 4 Democrats (78%) said the court's decision made it more likely that they would vote in the fall. A slim majority of Republicans (54%) said the same.
- ) Democrats now lead on the generic ballot question ('If the election were today, would you vote for the Democrat or the Republican for House') 48% to 41% over Republicans, a remarkable 10-point swing since an NPR poll in April.
And just in case you think those numbers are an outlier, a new CBS/YouGov poll conducted in the wake of the Roe ruling showed 6 in 10 Americans -- and 67% of women -- disapproving of the court's decision.
While these numbers may be cold comfort to many who see states -- particularly in the South -- already moving to put bans on abortion, they do suggest that the court may have unwittingly shifted the debate in the midterms.
The hard and fast political rule is that the current president's party loses House seats in his first midterm election. And, when that president is, as Joe Biden is, under 50% approval, his party tends to lose big. (The average seat loss for a president's party when that president is under 50% is 37 House seats as of a 2018 Gallup analysis.)
Given that, independent political handicappers, like the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, have estimated that Republicans are headed for a 25-to-35-seat gain in the House -- more than enough for the party to retake the majority.
What's clear is that, at the moment, the ruling has woken up the Democratic base to the stakes of the midterms. And that goes double for women.
Which is a not-insignificant development. In 2018 -- when Democrats won 41 seats and retook the House majority -- women made up more than half of the electorate (52%), and Democrats won them by 19 points. Four years prior, when Republicans netted 13 seats, Democrats won women by only 4 points.
The conclusion here is obvious: For Democrats to have a chance, they need a major margin among women -- especially suburban women -- since so many other swing groups, including independents, are trending strongly against them.
What's far less clear is whether that anger and outrage can a) hold all the way until November and b) trump economic issues like inflation and gas prices when it comes to what swing voters really care about.
Democrats in some districts and states are already on air with TV ads hoping to capitalize on the furor over the court's ruling. Watch the airwaves in the coming months to see if that keeps up. If it does, there's reason to conclude the issue is moving voters.
The Point: This election is still shaping up to be a good one for Republicans. The question now is whether the Roe ruling can limit Democratic losses.
-- Chris
TRIVIA TIME!
In 1989, George H.W. Bush was sworn in to office on the same Bible used to swear in what other president? (Answer below!)
QUOTE OF THE DAY
MONDAY ON THE SOCIALS
- 1. An insane 🧵 about Roe misinformation
- 2. The 14 House Republicans who voted for the new gun control legislation
- 3. Joe Biden gets involved in an Illinois House race
- 4. Get smarter about polling. Read this 🧵 .
- 5. 'Top Gun: Maverick' slays
- 6. Happy Monday!
 
CHRIS' GOOD READS
Donald Trump's social media venture is now under grand jury scrutiny, reports The New York Times.
Are we beginning to see real signs of Trump fatigue among his onetime base? Politico reports on the growing discontent with the former President.
The New Yorker on what Hungary can teach us about our American future.
Mike Pence is leaning into the Roe ruling as he seeks to find a lane for himself in the 2024 Republican presidential race, according to The Washington Post.
This Atlantic piece by Ron Brownstein suggests we really are living in 2 different Americas.
The guy who invented the Graham cracker sort of sucked, according to Mel magazine.
 
MUSICAL INTERLUDE
Muna's eponymous third album is already receiving rave reviews. And, judging from my first few listens, the hype is deserved.
BLACK WOMEN CONTINUE PUSH TOWARD GOVERNORSHIPS
In 2018, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams lost to Republican Brian Kemp by 1.4 percentage points in Georgia. Her 2022 bid for the position makes her one of at least eight Black women who are still in the running to be the first in US history to be elected governor.
CNN’s Chandelis Duster and Eva McKend report that a record 53 Black women have filed to run for statewide office in the midterms cycle this year; 145 Black women have filed or indicated they will run for Congress.
They write: “As a record number of Black women run for statewide office and Congress in the 2022 election cycle following the historic elections of Vice President Kamala Harris and more recently Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, there is renewed hope that one of the candidates will finally ascend to the governorship in 2022.”
The majority of the women running for governor are Democrats running in deep-red states. They face massive fundraising disadvantages against popular incumbents and a tough political season due to inflation, high gas prices and President Biden’s low approval ratings.
-- Shania
Ballot Box Divider
ONE BIG NUMBER
4
The Supreme Court has four remaining cases this term, related to immigration, climate change, Congress' war powers and Native American lands.
TRIVIA TIME ANSWER
George H.W. Bush was sworn in on the same Bible used to swear in George Washington. Printed in 1765, the Bible is now known as the George Washington Inaugural Bible. Bush used the Bible to celebrate the bicentennial of Washington's swearing-in in 1789.
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