image missing
HOME SN-BRIEFS SYSTEM
OVERVIEW
EFFECTIVE
MANAGEMENT
PROGRESS
PERFORMANCE
PROBLEMS
POSSIBILITIES
STATE
CAPITALS
FLOW
ACTIVITIES
FLOW
ACTORS
PETER
BURGESS
SiteNav SitNav (0) SitNav (1) SitNav (2) SitNav (3) SitNav (4) SitNav (5) SitNav (6) SitNav (7) SitNav (8)
Date: 2024-12-21 Page is: DBtxt001.php txt00023482
THE UKRAINE WAR
RUSSIAN WEAPONS AVAILABILITY

NYT: Russian Invasion of Ukraine ... Here’s what Russia’s attacks may indicate about its weapons stockpile.


A Russian rocket serves as a reminder of the relentless bombardment of Kharkiv, Ukraine.Credit...Ivor Prickett for The New York Times

Original article: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/world/europe/russia-missiles-weapons-stockpile.html
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY

Peter Burgess
Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Here’s what Russia’s attacks may indicate about its weapons stockpile.


Russia’s assault on Ukraine on Monday raised questions about the capacity of Moscow’s forces to carry out President Vladimir V. Putin’s military calculations.

By Mike Ives ... Lara Jakes contributed reporting.

Oct. 11, 2022

The Russian missile and drone attacks that killed at least 19 people across Ukraine on Monday were traumatic and wide-ranging, but they were not as deadly as they could have been, in the context of a war that has included widespread civilian killing.

That has renewed questions over the quality of Russia’s weapons and about the capacity of its forces to carry out President Vladimir V. Putin’s military designs.

Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said it could be a sign that Russia’s guided missiles are not very effective, or that it is running short of precision munitions. Most of the missiles targeted energy and other civilian services, in what Mr. Putin said was retaliation for a blast on Russia’s bridge to occupied Crimea.

“Perhaps it was Putin’s way of sending a warning shot across Ukraine’s bow: If you attack our infrastructure, we will ramp up attacks on your cities,” Mr. Storey said. But he and other experts acknowledged that much about Russia’s weapons arsenal remains unclear.

Here is some of what we know:

Russia may be running low on sophisticated missiles.

Many of Russia’s attacks — increasingly aimed at civilian targets — have been long-range strikes that used outdated, unguided and imprecise missiles, including some from the Soviet era. Ukrainian, Western and Russian analysts have said that the attacks appear to suggest that Russia is running low on its most sophisticated weapons.

The State of the War
  • Drone Attacks: The use by Russia of Iranian-made drones in recent strikes on Kyiv may be a sign that the country’s military is running low on precision-guided weapons. It also shows how Tehran has become an increasingly close ally to the Kremlin.
  • A Looming Crisis: Russia’s stepped-up attacks on infrastructure and vital utility networks in Ukraine herald a new phase of the war — one that threatens millions of Ukrainians with the prospect of a desolate winter without electricity, water and heat.
  • Russia’s Chaotic Draft: Newly mobilized Russian recruits are already at the front in Ukraine, reports say, fighting and dying after only days of training. The draft has provoked widespread criticism across Russia and prompted thousands of Russian men to flee the country.
  • Ukrainian Offensive: Moscow’s recent aerial campaign across Ukraine does not appear to have changed the course of the war in the south and the east, where Russia is mostly falling back as Ukrainian troops try to regain territory.
  • Western intelligence officials say that Russia used up many of its most accurate weapons, including cruise missiles and certain ballistic missiles, in the early days of the invasion. Russia’s arms industry has long relied heavily on imported electronic parts. As a result, analysts say, sanctions and export controls appear to have limited the Kremlin’s ability to restock its supplies, leaving it to rely more on unguided munitions.
Experts said that by using dozens of precision missiles against civilian targets, Russia would have fewer to use on the battlefield as it faces Ukrainian counteroffensives in the east and south.

“Given how they are strapped in terms of resources and military materiel, it is unlikely that Russia can maintain the combat tempo it exhibited on Monday,” said Ridzwan Rahmat, the principal defense analyst at Janes, based in Singapore.

It is increasingly turning to Iran and North Korea for supplies.

Russia has been buying military drones from Iran and, according to intelligence sources, artillery shells and rockets from North Korea. Analysts see both developments as a further sign that sanctions have hampered Russia’s military supply lines.

Iran has confirmed that a drone deal with Russia was part of a military agreement that predated the war, and Iranian-made drones have been spotted in the skies above Ukraine more frequently. Ukraine’s military said that of the 24 drones Russia used in the attacks on Monday, more than half were Iranian.

Ukrainian soldiers have said that the Iranian drones — which carry a payload of about 80 pounds and are self-destructing — are effective battlefield weapons.

There is no hard evidence of Russia having purchased North Korean weapons, Mr. Storey said. But if true, he added, “it’s a sign of desperation.”

Russia’s nuclear weapons remain a threat, though it’s unclear whether the Kremlin will use them.

Russia has a large supply of tactical nuclear weapons — probably about 2,000, far more than the roughly 100 that NATO has positioned around Europe. In recent weeks, Mr. Putin has raised the prospect of using nuclear weapons to hold onto his tenuous territorial gains in Ukraine.

Whether he actually would use them despite the huge risks — both to Ukraine and to Russia and the wider region — is another story.

Senior U.S. officials say they have not seen any evidence in recent days of Russia’s moving its nuclear assets. And on Monday, Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, dismissed speculation that Russia would use nuclear weapons in response to the Crimea attack as “completely incorrect.”

Russian missiles have been vulnerable to Ukrainian air defenses.

The relatively low casualty toll on Monday, Mr. Storey said, was partly a result of Ukraine’s ability to shoot down some Russian missiles using air defenses that have remained largely intact throughout the war.

As of Tuesday, Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said that its forces had shot down about 300 Russian cruise missiles since February. It was not possible to confirm that tally. The total number of Russian missiles fired during the war is believed to be in the thousands.

Lara Jakes contributed reporting.

© 2022 The New York Times Company

Russian Invasion of Ukraine
  • Here are the latest developments in the war in Ukraine.
  • Pressure grows on the West to speed air-defense systems to Ukraine.
  • The U.S. signals urgency to deploy an air defense system to Ukraine that it uses to protect the White House.
  • Biden says Putin miscalculated badly about the reaction to his invasion.
  • At a shelter in eastern Ukraine, people with special needs displaced by missile strikes find refuge.
  • Better Understand the Russia-Ukraine War
  • History: Here’s what to know about Russia and Ukraine’s relationship and the causes behind the conflict.
On the Ground: Russian and Ukrainian forces are using a bevy of weapons as a deadly war of attrition grinds on in eastern Ukraine.

Outside Pressures: Governments, sports organizations and businesses are taking steps to punish Russia. Here is a list of companies that have pulled out of the country.

Updates: To receive the latest updates in your inbox, sign up here. The Times has also launched a Telegram channel to make its journalism more accessible around the world.

How We Verify Our Reporting

Our team of visual journalists analyzes satellite images, photographs, videos and radio transmissions to independently confirm troop movements and other details.

We monitor and authenticate reports on social media, corroborating these with eyewitness accounts and interviews. Read more about our reporting efforts.



The text being discussed is available at
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/world/europe/russia-missiles-weapons-stockpile.html
and
SITE COUNT<
Amazing and shiny stats
Blog Counters Reset to zero January 20, 2015
TrueValueMetrics (TVM) is an Open Source / Open Knowledge initiative. It has been funded by family and friends. TVM is a 'big idea' that has the potential to be a game changer. The goal is for it to remain an open access initiative.
WE WANT TO MAINTAIN AN OPEN KNOWLEDGE MODEL
A MODEST DONATION WILL HELP MAKE THAT HAPPEN
The information on this website may only be used for socio-enviro-economic performance analysis, education and limited low profit purposes
Copyright © 2005-2021 Peter Burgess. All rights reserved.