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BLOOMBERG Bloomberg ... US Edition ... December 1st 2022 Original article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-26/xi-s-vow-of-world-dominance-by-2049-sends-chill-through-markets Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess | ||
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0:15 Who are China’s new Leaders? Unmute Who are China’s new Leaders? ByBloomberg News October 26, 2022 at 6:05 AM EDTUpdated onOctober 26, 2022 at 5:00 PM EDT Listen to this article 6:07 Share this article New Gift this article In this article 0855349D CITY UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG Private Company CNY China Renminbi Spot 7.0534CNY-0.0390-0.5499% BABA ALIBABA GRP-ADR 86.39USD-1.17-1.34% TSLA TESLA INC 194.47USD-0.23-0.12% UNIHKZ CHINESE UNIVERSITY OF HONG K Private Company Open President Xi Jinping has put himself in position to rule China for at least another decade, and possibly for life. The question now is what he’ll do with all that power. On one level, Xi has made it clear where he wants to take China. At the opening of the Communist Party congress last week, he repeated a goal to make China a modern socialist power by 2035, boosting per capita income to middle-income levels and modernizing the armed forces. Then by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, he wants to ensure the nation “leads the world in terms of composite national strength and international influence.” It’s how Xi plans to get there that’s unsettling markets. Chinese assets plummeted earlier this week after the president surrounded himself with allies during the twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle, notably positioning Shanghai party chief Li Qiang as premier despite a lack of central government experience. He also signaled a shift of priorities from economic development toward security, heightening investor anxiety over how an unrestrained Xi will steer the country. Closing Session of the China's Communist Party Congress Xi JinpingSource: Bloomberg “He’d want his legacy in history to be that he achieved the 2049 goal,” said Charles Parton, a former British diplomat and fellow at the Council on Geostrategy and the Royal United Services Institute. “Which if you translate it from party speak, is to become top dog, knock America off its perch, and order the world so that its governance better suits China’s interests and values.” But Xi’s road map is laden with contradictions: Boosting economic growth while locking down cities under Covid Zero; ensuring technological self-sufficiency while wiping $1.5 trillion off the tech sector; opening more to the world while restricting speech and capital flows. And perhaps the biggest of all, achieving this grand vision while also risking a catastrophic war over Taiwan to complete a “historic mission” and “a natural requirement for realizing the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” “He’s eyeing having an important position in the history books,” said Liu Dongshu, assistant professor at City University of Hong Kong. “A lot of things, including the Taiwan issue, are part of the narrative he can use to justify his extraordinary efforts to take a third and even a fourth term. If you want to break the rule, you need a reason.” MORE ON THE CONGRESS:
When Xi rose to power in 2012, there were early hopes that he would follow his reformist father Xi Zhongxun in seeking to liberalize China at home and open further to the rest of the world. The latest in global politics Get insight from reporters around the world in the Balance of Power newsletter. Email Enter your email Sign Up By submitting my information, I agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Service and to receive offers and promotions from Bloomberg. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a US banking conference that China’s new leader was “worldly,” “sophisticated” and “more effective” than his predecessor, Hu Jintao, according to documents included in her hacked campaign emails released by WikiLeaks. Shortly after taking office, Xi trekked to Shenzhen on a trip that seemed to echo the 1992 southern tour by former leader Deng Xiaoping, whose “reform and opening up” policy kickstarted China’s economic miracle. Instead, Xi increased the party’s role in running the economy and centralized control to make himself China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. He ended China’s era of hiding and biding on the world stage, crushed dissent from Xinjiang to Hong Kong, and eroded four decades of power-sharing at the top levels of the Communist Party. relates to Xi’s Vow of World Dominance by 2049 Sends Chill Through Markets Xi struck a defiant tone in his speech to open the party congress this month, saying China wouldn’t change course even as it faces “dangerous storms” in a more hostile world. Instead, he forcefully offered China’s model up as an alternative to the US and its allies, in essence vowing to overcome the Biden administration’s efforts to hobble the nation’s development by depriving it of chips and other advanced technology. “Chinese modernization offers humanity a new choice for achieving modernization,” Xi said. So far, investors aren’t confident he can pull it off. After Xi unveiled the new elite Politburo Standing Committee, stocks in Hong Kong capped their worst day since the 2008 global financial crisis on Monday and the yuan weakened to a 14-year low. The historic sell-off has since rebounded as Chinese officials have sought to reassure investors. The party congress has dashed hopes among investors that Xi was turning China into “a hybrid model of restrained capitalism and a reform-minded communist philosophy,” said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer of the Global CIO Office. “The past week’s events only reinforce the fear that Xi is taking the Chinese policy back to communism,” Dugan said. “His vision of openness does not quite align with that of the West.” Optimists see Xi’s consolidation of power helping to smooth out policy implementation. On his team, Li as incoming premier is known for having supported companies including Alibaba Group Holding and Tesla Inc. when leading Zhejiang and Shanghai. Chinese Communist Party's Politburo Standing Committee Meet the Press Li QiangSource: Bloomberg At the same time, however, Li also oversaw the punishing two-month pandemic lockdown for Shanghai’s 25 million residents earlier this year. And China still has no clear path out of Covid Zero, which has further hurt an economy weighed down by a property crisis and tech clash with the West. “National security will likely be China’s top priority given the unstable international environment,” said Vivian Zhan, associate professor of Chinese politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “China has to step up indigenous innovation.” The one thing Xi doesn’t need to worry about is political stability, with nobody still around in China’s top leadership ranks who could stand in his way. But that doesn’t mean his job will be easier: The bigger issues around Covid, property, chips, Taiwan and an ideological battle with the US have no easy solutions. “There’s a contradiction between how self-confident the leadership seems to be on the one hand, and how anxious they seem to be about security concerns on the other,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, an emeritus professor of political science at Hong Kong Baptist University. “The next five years are going to be harder for Xi Jinping than the past five years.” — With assistance by Sarah Zheng, Lucille Liu, Colum Murphy, Abhishek Vishnoi and Philip Glamann (Updates with stock moves) Up Next NATO Chief Stoltenberg Warns Against Repeating Russia Errors With China Have a confidential tip for our reporters? Get in touch Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal Learn more Most Read Technology Musk’s Neuralink Hopes to Implant Computer in Human Brain in Six Months Pursuits New York, Singapore Are the World’s Most Expensive Cities Right Now Markets Stocks Churn Around 200-Day Average Ahead of Jobs: Markets Wrap Pursuits Rolex to Certify Used Watches as Genuine for the First Time Markets Beijing Eases Covid Curbs, Letting Some Patients Isolate at Home Politics NATO Chief Warns Against Repeating Russia Errors With China 0:14 NATO's Stoltenberg on Ukraine Support, Russia, China Unmute NATO's Stoltenberg Speaks to Bloomberg TV ByMaria Tadeo, Andra Timu, and Courtney McBride November 30, 2022 at 8:03 AM ESTUpdated onNovember 30, 2022 at 8:39 AM EST Listen to this article 2:03 Share this article New Gift this article Follow the authors @mariatad + Get alerts forMaria Tadeo @atimu2 + Get alerts forAndra Timu @CMcBinDC + Get alerts forCourtney McBride NATO countries must avoid repeating mistakes they made in relations with Russia to ensure they limit dependence on China, alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg said. “I believe in free trade and member states should continue to trade with China but we cannot make these decisions only based on commercial considerations,” Stoltenberg, secretary general of NATO, told Bloomberg Television on Wednesday after its foreign ministers discussed issues including China ties and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in Bucharest. “We’ve seen this issue with Russia, it’s not just a commercial decision, it has to do with our security. Over dependence of resources on authoritarian regimes like Russia makes us vulnerable and we should not repeat that mistake with China,” Stoltenberg said. He added: “We should assess our vulnerabilities and reduce them.” Read More: NATO Allies Warn on China With Eye on Beijing’s Ties to Putin Earlier in Bucharest, some ministers stressed that Beijing could help push for a deal to end the war in Ukraine. This comes after the leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization had agreed in June that China posed a “systemic challenge” and warned about a deepening strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters after the meeting that governments need to “make sure that when China is making investments in our countries,” which “we want to sustain,” it is necessary “to be careful with that, in particularly sensitive areas, strategic areas, strategic industries, companies infrastructure.” Security considerations must be taken “fully into account before allowing any investments to go forward,” Blinken said. ‘Aggressive’ Behavior Stoltenberg described China’s behavior toward Taiwan as “aggressive, coercing and threatening,” saying “there is no reason for that and any conflict around Taiwan would be in nobody’s interest.” While the allies pledged increased support to Ukraine at the Bucharest meeting, including air-defense systems, Stoltenberg acknowledged the need to do more and speed up help as winter will make it harder for Ukrainian troops to withstand the Russian aggression. NATO countries should also be aware of Russia’s capacity to prolong the war, Stoltenberg said. “Russia has suffered heavy losses but we should not underestimate them because they managed to mobilize hundreds of additional troops,” he said. — With assistance by Irina Vilcu, Natalia Drozdiak and Max Ramsay (Updates with Blinken remarks in fifth, sixth paragraphs) Up Next China's Xi Urges Calming War in Ukraine Crisis in Talks With Europe’s Michel Have a confidential tip for our reporters? Get in touch Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal Learn more by TaboolaSponsored LinksFrom The Web Empty Caribbean Cruise Cabins Cost Almost Nothing Cruise Deals | Sponsored searches Empty Alaska Cruise Cabins Cost Almost Nothing Alaska Cruise Deals | sponsored searches New Chevy's Finally On Sale All Things Auto The Most Realistic PC Game of 2022 BuzzDaily Winners New BMWs Basically on Clearance Sale Hot Deals - Top Searches Killer New EVs With Longest Range And Most Power New Electric Cars | Search Ads Most Read Technology Musk’s Neuralink Hopes to Implant Computer in Human Brain in Six Months Pursuits New York, Singapore Are the World’s Most Expensive Cities Right Now Markets Stocks Churn Around 200-Day Average Ahead of Jobs: Markets Wrap Pursuits Rolex to Certify Used Watches as Genuine for the First Time Markets Beijing Eases Covid Curbs, Letting Some Patients Isolate at Home Politics
WATCH: Chinese President Xi Jinping called for efforts to bring calm to the war in Ukraine.Source: Bloomberg ByBloomberg News December 1, 2022 at 1:42 AM ESTUpdated onDecember 1, 2022 at 7:14 AM EST Listen to this article 4:06 Share this article New Gift this article In this article CHCETZ CHINA CENTRAL TELEVISION Private Company 2140864D UNITED NATIONS Private Company 1860805D AIM Private Company Open Chinese President Xi Jinping urged efforts to resolve the war in Ukraine during talks with European Council President Charles Michel, as Beijing sought to address one of its biggest friction points with Brussels. “Solving the Ukraine crisis through political means is in the best interest of Europe and the common interest of all countries in Eurasia,” Xi said after the meeting on Thursday in Beijing, according to state broadcaster China Central Television. He added that “it is necessary to avoid escalation and expansion of the crisis.” Michel told Xi that the European Union counted on China “to contribute to ending Russia’s brutal destruction and occupation,” according to a statement from Michel’s spokesman. Both leaders “stressed that nuclear threats are irresponsible and highly dangerous” during their roughly three hours of discussions, it added. Speaking alone at a news conference following his meetings, Michel said Xi had also “made very clear” that China isn’t providing weapons to Russia. “We all share the responsibility to work for peace and to respect the fundamental principles of the United Nations Charter,” Michel said. “I urged President Xi, as we did at our EU-China summit in April, to use his influence on Russia to respect the UN charter.” Read: Europe Reasserts Middle Path on China, Pushing Back on Biden China has refrained from criticizing Russia over the war in Ukraine, blaming the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization for Moscow’s actions. China signed off on a communique at the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia earlier this month that said “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine,” but continues to refrain from calling it a war. Xi also reinforced his opposition to the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine during talks with US President Joe Biden at the G-20. Russian President Vladimir Putin had fueled fears he may resort to nuclear weapons, though Russian diplomats later clarified his stance. The encounter between Xi and Michel came as China’s zero-tolerance approach to the coronavirus faces new stress given the costs to the economy and burdens placed on the public. French companies said last week that the rollout of changes China made to its Covid Zero strategy earlier this month, including pulling back on testing, fell short of expectations. The European nation’s chamber of commerce called on the government to lift “unnecessary and excessive curbs.” See: Beijing Eases Covid Curbs, Letting Some Patients Isolate at Home The statement from Michel’s spokesman said he told Xi about “difficulties faced by EU companies and investors, which have been exacerbated by the pandemic.” The statement didn’t mention protests that broke out recently in China against the nation’s strict Covid Zero rules. At the news conference, Michel said he discussed the protests with Xi as well as the “acceptance by societies of the measures and the reactions by authorities.” He said that both sides had agreed to resume a human rights dialog, adding, “For the EU, the right of assembly is an important fundamental right.” Also on Thursday, China called for an investment agreement with Europe to be finalized. European lawmakers voted to halt ratification of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment due to a dispute over human rights issues and both sides levying sanctions. The deal is “good for China, Europe and the world,” Shu Jueting, spokeswoman of the Ministry of Commerce in Beijing, said at a press briefing. “China and Europe should work together to push for signing and entering the agreement into force so that it can benefit companies and the public on both sides soon.” READ MORE:
That move pushes back at the US, which is trying to convince chipmakers around the world to curb high-end exports to China, limiting progress the world’s No. 2 economy can make in areas such as artificial intelligence and military applications. Still, the US and the European Union aim to work together to counter what they call non-market policies, including in China, according to a draft statement before high-level talks due in Washington this month. Macron, on a state visit to the US, meets with Biden on Thursday. — With assistance by Lucille Liu, Yujing Liu, James Mayger, Natalia Drozdiak and Katharina Rosskopf (Updates with Michel comments following press conference in 4th, 5th and 10th paragraphs) Up Next Russia-Ukraine War Latest News: December 1, 2022 Have a confidential tip for our reporters? Get in touch Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal Learn more by TaboolaSponsored LinksFrom The Web Empty Caribbean Cruise Cabins Cost Almost Nothing Cruise Deals | Sponsored searches Empty Alaska Cruise Cabins Cost Almost Nothing Alaska Cruise Deals | sponsored searches New Chevy's Finally On Sale All Things Auto The Most Realistic PC Game of 2022 BuzzDaily Winners New BMWs Basically on Clearance Sale Hot Deals - Top Searches Killer New EVs With Longest Range And Most Power New Electric Cars | Search Ads Most Read Technology Musk’s Neuralink Hopes to Implant Computer in Human Brain in Six Months Pursuits New York, Singapore Are the World’s Most Expensive Cities Right Now Markets Stocks Churn Around 200-Day Average Ahead of Jobs: Markets Wrap Pursuits Rolex to Certify Used Watches as Genuine for the First Time Markets Beijing Eases Covid Curbs, Letting Some Patients Isolate at Home Politics Ukraine Latest: Macron Says It’s Up to Kyiv When to Negotiate 0:14 China's Xi Calls for Efforts to Bring Calm in Ukraine Unmute WATCH: Chinese President Xi Jinping called for efforts to bring calm to the war in Ukraine.Source: Bloomberg ByBloomberg News December 1, 2022 at 2:59 AM ESTUpdated onDecember 1, 2022 at 2:31 PM EST Share this article New Gift this article In this article CL1 WTI Crude 81.37USD/bbl.+0.82+1.02% AMZN AMAZON.COM INC 95.50USD-1.04-1.08% 2057703D TREASURY Private Company 125749Z ASSOCIATED PRESS/THE Private Company Open French President Emmanuel Macron said at a White House news conference that the timing and terms of negotiations over an end to the war in Ukraine must be up to Ukrainians. President Joe Biden said he’d be interested in talking to Russian President Vladimir Putin only if he’s really looking for a way to end the war. Ukraine’s Central Bank may cut its economic outlook following Russia’s recent attacks on the country’s energy system, its governor said. European Union states are starting to coalesce around a plan to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel ahead of a Monday deadline. Elon Musk risks giving a helping hand to Russian President Vladimir Putin if Twitter Inc. is unable to root out propaganda about the war in Ukraine, one of the European Union’s officials warned. Ukraine’s president has urged Musk to visit his war-torn nation to see first hand the damage done by Russia’s invasion. (See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.) Key Developments
Ukraine said the risk remains that Russia will launch new missiles attacks against energy infrastructure. Air raid sirens went off across much of the country early Thursday afternoon as three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets, often used to carry Kalibr missiles, took off from Belarusian airspace and headed for Russia. Separately, Russian forces made 16 air strikes against Ukraine-controlled territory, including Bilohirya in Zaporizhzhia, the country’s Defense Ministry said on Telegram. Russian troops also attacked Ukrainian positions in the Kharkiv region with rockets, and shelled recently-liberated Kherson with multiple launch rocket systems. Ukrainian forces see Russian troops evacuating their units from some occupied areas in Zaporizhzhia region. Ukraine’s Counterattacks Russian forces have lost a large part of the territory taken since the invasion #started on February 24 Sources: Institute for the Study of War and the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project Note: Map shows control areas as of November 12, 2022. (All times CET) Macron Says Negotiating Is Up to Ukraine (8:10 p.m.) Macron said that only Ukraine can decide when the conditions have been met to start negotiating a peace settlement with Russia. “We will never urge Ukrainians to make a compromise that is not acceptable to them,” Macron told reporters after meeting with Biden in the White House. “We have to let Ukrainians decide the moment and the conditions that they will negotiate.” Although the French president has strongly supported Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, he drew strong criticism with his previous calls not to “humiliate” Russia. Biden said that he’s prepared to speak with Putin “if in fact there is an interest in him deciding he’s looking for a way to end the war -- he hasn’t done that yet.” He neglected to add his administration’s standard formulation that there would be no moves concerning Ukraine unless Ukraine participated. Zelenskiy Discusses Grain Initiative with Senegal’s Sall (5:45 p.m.) Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy spoke with Macky Sall, president of Senegal and chairman of the African Union, about the implementation of the “Grain from Ukraine” initiative launched last week and other matters. Germany’s Scholz Would Welcome Increased NATO Role (5:31 p.m.) German’s chancellor said he would welcome an increased role by NATO to coordinate the security of allies’ critical infrastructure, and particularly subsea links. Speaking to reporters at a joint press conference with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Olaf Scholz added that an offer to send anti-missile Patriots to Poland still stands. Separately, asked whether Germany was doing enough to reduce dependencies on Beijing in light of a recent contentious deal with the Hamburg port, Stoltenberg said each country “has to find the balance between economic engagement with China and at same time preventing becoming too dependent or vulnerable.” US Treasury Official Confident on Price Cap Progress (5:06 p.m.) Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said that he’s confident European Union countries will soon agree on a price cap for Russian crude oil, and that $60 a barrel would be “in the range” coalition countries have discussed. Read more: Adeyemo Says $60 Is in Range Coalition Eyes for Russia Oil Cap European Allies Show Support for Special Tribunal on Russia (4:47 p.m.) Foreign ministers and other senior officials from Europe and beyond made “one more step” at their meeting in Poland toward creating a special tribunal to evaluate Russia’s “crime of aggression,” Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter. Discussions were held in a side-event to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) annual meeting being held in Lodz. The gathering continues on Friday. Poland, which chairs the OSCE in 2022, said that “all tools available” should be harnessed to bring attention to the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine on children. G7 Expects Kyiv to Appoint New Justice Council Members (3:07 p.m.) Ambassadors from the Group of Seven expect the Ukrainian Congress of Judges to appoint eight new members of the High Council of Justice in January, the group said on Twitter. “This will restart the Council’s work, reinforce Ukraine’s resilience and fulfill a key condition for Ukraine’s EU path,” according to the statement. Another 50 Ukraine POWs Returned in Swap, Zelenskiy Aide Says (3 p.m.) Another 50 Ukrainian prisoners of war have been returned in a swap with Russia, Andriy Yermak, a top presidential aide, said on Telegram. Those returning home include soldiers from Mariupol and Azovstal, as well as wounded from the Olenivka prison facility, he said. Russia’s defense ministry earlier announced a swap of 50 prisoners on each side, without providing more details. Ukraine earlier said that swaps have intensified recently. Overall, 1,286 servicemen have returned to Ukraine since the Russian invasion started, said Andriy Yusov, a Ukrainian military intelligence representative. Spanish Officials Find Suspicious Package at US Embassy in Madrid: AP (2:43 p.m.) Spanish officials say a suspicious package was found at the US embassy in Madrid, a day after an explosive device ignited at the city’s Ukrainian embassy, the Associated Press reported. Earlier, Secretary of State Rafael Perez said devices were detected on Thursday at Spain’s defense ministry, and a package containing a “pyrotechnical” substance was found on Nov. 24, addressed to Spain’s prime minister. Read more: Spain Probes More Letter Bombs After Ukraine Embassy Blast Macron Holds Out Hope for Negotiations, Will Speak With Putin (2:31 p.m.) French President Emmanuel Macron says he plans to speak with Vladimir Putin in the “coming days” about Russia’s war in Ukraine, and believes it’s still possible to negotiate a solution to the conflict. “I wanted to first have the state visit with President Biden and have an in-depth discussion with our two teams together,” Macron said of his upcoming conversation with Putin during an interview Thursday with ABC News. Macron said he believed Putin could still be a rational actor. “My conviction and my pragmatic approach is I have to engage with the existing leaders and the one in charge of the country.” Ukraine’s Central Bank Will Likely Cut Economic Outlook: Forbes (2 p.m.) The bank is likely to make the move following Russia’s weeks of attacks on the country’s energy system, though won’t change forecast for inflation, Governor Andriy Pyshnyi told local Forbes in an interview. The policymaker saw Ukraine’s economy growing by 4% in 2023 after contraction of more than 31% this year, but will have to review this outlook after the Russia’s bombardment of the country’s regions and cities, most recently on Nov. 23, which led to the changes that the central bank’s governor called “dramatic.” Large swaths of Ukraine have been without power and water. “The impact may turn out to be much more powerful than we predicted before,” Pyshnyi said. “At the same time, damages to energy infrastructure have already exceeded our estimates as of October, so it is highly likely that we will downgrade our outlook for economic activity.” Read more: Ukraine Central Bank Likely to Cut Economic Outlook: Forbes EU Closes In on $60 Price Cap for Russian Oil (1:51 p.m.) European Union states are starting to coalesce around a plan to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel, their latest attempt to clinch an agreement before a Monday deadline, according to people familiar with the matter. Read more: EU Closes In on $60 Price Cap for Russian Oil as Deadline Looms Amazon to Provide Ukraine $75M for Cloud Technologies (12:54 p.m.) Amazon Web Services and Ukraine’s ministry for digital transformation signed a memorandum on cooperation for 2023 and an allocation of $75 million for cloud technologies. “The cloud can’t be destroyed by missiles, so Amazon makes us more resilient.”, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said in a statement on the ministry’s website. From the first days of the full-scale invasion, AWS provided strong support to Ukraine, providing technologies to save important Ukrainian state, banking and educational data, Fedorov said. Seven EU Countries Make Fresh Push for Dynamic Gas Price Cap (12:06 p.m.) A group of seven European Union member states is pushing for a more dynamic gas price cap, arguing that the one put forward by the bloc’s executive branch is designed so that it won’t get triggered and therefore wouldn’t help consumers pay their bills. Countries including Italy, Belgium and Greece, are submitting an amendment that would set a cap based largely on a fixed level -- using as an example €160 ($167) per megawatt-hour -- but also with a floating element based off prices at key international hubs, according a document seen by Bloomberg. Russia Says Ukraine Must Figure in Any Strategic Talks With US (11:44 a.m.) Russia wants any talks with the US on strategic stability to cover the conflict in Ukraine, as well, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, charging Washington with an unwillingness to restart talks. “It’s impossible to discuss strategic stability today and ignore everything that’s happening in Ukraine,” he told an online briefing. He said the US had refused to discuss the war in what few contacts have continued with Russia, citing a policy of not talking about Ukraine without Kyiv’s participation. Lavrov also said it was the US that initiated last month’s meeting in Ankara between Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, appealing to keep the talks confidential. Reports of the meeting appeared the day it took place. November Was Month of Most Missile Strikes From Russia, Ukraine Says (11:09 a.m.) The energy system was the main target of cruise missiles and 80 drones fired in November, military spokesman Oleksii Hromov told reporters in Kyiv. Ukrainian air defense downed 72% of the cruise missiles and 80% of the drones last month, he said. relates to Ukraine Latest: Macron Says It’s Up to Kyiv When to Negotiate Children look at a crater following a Russian strike in the Lviv region, Ukraine, in November.Photographer: Mykola Tys/AP Photo Musk Warned to Keep Putin Propaganda Off Twitter (10:30 a.m.) Musk risks giving a helping hand to Putin if Twitter’s recent staff cuts prevent the platform from rooting out propaganda about the war in Ukraine, one of the European Union’s officials warned. Failing to take on fake or misleading content online could “lead to the very quick abuse” of Twitter, European Commission Vice President Vera Jourova, who’s spearheading efforts to tackle online disinformation, said in an interview with Bloomberg. This includes making sure the platform doesn’t become a hub for Russian propaganda. Read More: Musk Warned by EU Official to Keep Putin Propaganda Off Twitter EU’s Michel, Xi Discuss War in Ukraine (7:46 a.m.) European Council President Charles Michel discussed a range of topics, including Russia’s war against Ukraine, with China’s president, according to a statement from his spokesman. Michel underlined that the EU counts on China as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council to call on Russia to respect the core principles of the UN Charter and contribute to ending Russia’s occupation of Ukraine.Our Era Should be One of Peace, Modi Says (7:36 a.m.) Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi published an op-ed in a number of newspapers, saying “our era should not be an era of wars.” This comes on the eve of India’s G-20 presidency. Modi wrote he intends to promote the idea of peaceful solutions to conflicts. Read More: Modi Signals Putin’s War a Challenge for India as G-20 Host UN Expects Russian Ammonia Exports via Ukraine to Resume, Reuters Says (6:28 a.m.) The UN expects Russian ammonia exports via Ukraine to resume as a deal for pumping the fertilizer through a pipeline to a Black Sea port is “quite close,” Reuters reported, citing Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths. The deal may be achieved this week and shipments could be started within a week or two, the news service reported. — With assistance by Ros Krasny Up Next Russia’s Strategic Bombing Campaign Against Ukraine Is Ill-Conceived Have a confidential tip for our reporters? Get in touch Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal Learn more by TaboolaSponsored LinksFrom The Web Empty Caribbean Cruise Cabins Cost Almost Nothing Cruise Deals | Sponsored searches Empty Alaska Cruise Cabins Cost Almost Nothing Alaska Cruise Deals | sponsored searches New Chevy's Finally On Sale All Things Auto The Most Realistic PC Game of 2022 BuzzDaily Winners New BMWs Basically on Clearance Sale Hot Deals - Top Searches Killer New EVs With Longest Range And Most Power New Electric Cars | Search Ads Opinion Leonid Bershidsky Russia’s Strategic Bombing Campaign Is Ill-Conceived What worked against increasingly isolated belligerents in World War II won’t beat a victimized nation that enjoys strong outside support. What worked in World War 2 may not work in 2022. What worked in World War 2 may not work in 2022.Photographer: Stringer/AFP via Getty Images ByLeonid Bershidsky December 1, 2022 at 12:00 AM EST Share this article New Gift this article Follow the authors headshot of Leonid Bershidsky Leonid Bershidsky, formerly Bloomberg Opinion’s Europe columnist, is a member of the Bloomberg News Automation Team. He recently published Russian translations of George Orwell’s “1984” and Franz Kafka’s “The Trial.” @Bershidsky + Get alerts forLeonid Bershidsky Regular Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian power stations disrupt power and water supplies, as well as cellular coverage, in Ukrainian regions for hours, sometimes days on end. The attacks began after a powerful explosion damaged a key bridge connecting Russia with occupied Crimea, and many have interpreted them as Putin’s revenge for the sabotage and for recent battlefield defeats. They are, however, more than that: Strategic bombing is a time-honored, if disputed, war-winning tool. But Russia’s military strategists seem to have missed or ignored some important developments in the debate around it. Strategic bombing, or attacks from the air on an adversary’s critical infrastructure and industry as well as their surrounding civilian centers, has been a feature of Western warfighting since World War II. The practice inflicted lasting damage on many a German and Japanese city, including Dresden and Hiroshima. In later wars — in Vietnam, Yugoslavia and Iraq — it was employed in a more limited way and with increasing precision, leading to more infrastructure damage and fewer civilian deaths. Throughout the post-World War II era, experts and pundits alike have debated its effectiveness while stressing its unquestionable brutality. There is still no expert consensus on whether strategic bombing sufficiently undermines an enemy’s physical capacity and national morale to justify its human and financial cost. Some have even described it as counterproductive, since such campaigns can cause a rally-around-the-flag effect — something that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has attempted to cultivate in his public denunciations of the Russian missile strikes. More from Bloomberg Opinion
Some of the pro-war Russian Telegram channels, notably Rybar, run by former Defense Ministry spokesperson Mikhail Zvinchuk, have enthusiastically backed attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, even providing the coordinates of desirable targets. They argue that power outages disrupt Ukrainian railroad traffic and make it harder to supply the troops, especially with heavy Western equipment. Diesel-powered engines can only pull shorter and lighter trains than electric ones across the Carpathian mountains, and they require expensive fuel and — given that many of Ukraine’s diesel engines were produced in territory now occupied by Russia — hard-to-get spare parts. And even these engines get stuck when power is shut off to signaling and other electrified systems. In that sense, the missile strikes would be part of a strategy that the US political scientist Robert Pape, in his seminal 1996 book “Bombing to Win,” labeled as “denial” — an attempt to create supply difficulties for enemy forces in the field. But bombing electrical infrastructure has been discredited in a “denial” context. “The only sound reason for attacking electrical power is to affect the production of war material in a war of attrition against a self-supporting nation-state without outside assistance,” US Air Force Major Thomas E. Griffith Jr. wrote in a 1994 thesis for the School of Advanced Airpower Studies, citing numerous examples from US wars. Ukraine doesn’t fit this description: It not only has lots of outside help, it is almost completely reliant on it for both cash and military supplies. Besides, strikes on power stations and transformers in systematic attempts to degrade the Ukrainian power grid are not the most obvious way to disrupt freight traffic: Striking key bridges would have been a shorter path toward the same goal. Despite increasingly emotional calls for attacks on bridges on pro-war Telegram, the Russian command has been reluctant, perhaps in the hope that it might someday need that costly infrastructure for its own troops. Russian strategists are also hardly likely to believe in the power of strategic bombing to coerce the adversary to negotiate. Ever since the strikes began in October, Zelenskiy has showed no willingness to make concessions, repeatedly calling instead for more and better weapons systems to close Ukraine’s skies and demanding that Russia be declared a state sponsor of terrorism for the attacks. It should be clear by now that coercion is not working — and, while it worked for the US after the nuclear bombings of Japan, other examples of airstrikes that decisively forced a belligerent to the negotiating table are hard to find. What about the 1999 bombing of Serbia? People forget that it also included targeted strikes on actual troops and equipment in the field, something that the Russian air and missile forces are leaving to artillery in Ukraine because of the surprising resilience of Ukrainian air defenses. More plausibly, Russian strategists are going for what Pape categorized as “punishment” — a demoralization effect that undermines support for enemy leadership, the kind apparently achieved by the US in previous wars. The 1947 “United States Strategic Bombing Survey” found a “pervasive” effect of U.S. airstrikes on Japanese citizens’ morale. “More of the bombed persons tended to feel that there was inequality of suffering,” it reported. “More of the bombed persons tended to become critical of both home front and military leaders.” Some later academic works dealing with more modern wars have also noted that strategic bombing can be demoralizing. In a paper published this year in the Journal of Peace Research, Leiden University’s Milos Popovic established that those areas of Serbia bombed by NATO in 1999 were less likely to vote for Slobodan Milosevic in 2000 than those that were not bombed. “The NATO airstrikes decisively tilted Serbia’s postwar voters away from the regime,” Popovic wrote. Contrary to some previous research, the Serbian radical right also lost votes as a result of the NATO strikes. One could argue that the reaction in Ukraine cannot resemble that in Japan or Serbia: Those two countries were the aggressors in the wars in which they were subjected to strategic bombing, and in both, the authoritarian regimes relied on repression, perhaps to a greater degree than on genuine popular support. Ukrainians — the victims in the current conflict — are more likely to rally even closer around Zelenskiy and their military leaders as Russia fires the missiles, the way Brits did around Churchill during the 1940 Battle of Britain. Throughout this year, however, the Russian leadership, both political and military, has often showed that it tends to drink buckets of its own Kool-Aid — and the propaganda line concerning ordinary Ukrainians is that they are, at heart, the same as Russians, only led astray by nationalist and pro-Western propaganda. The Kremlin doesn’t appear to believe that Ukrainians feel they’re fighting an existential war. That disbelief would be consistent with the view that hardship eventually will turn them against Zelenskiy. Ukraine’s wartime control of information flows is relatively tight, so gauging the effect of the Russian strikes on ordinary Ukrainians is hard. Yet, given the failure of Russia’s previous attempts to turn them against their leadership — unforgettably, early in the campaign, as Ukrainians fought fiercely to defend Kyiv, Putin called on Ukrainian officers to overthrow Zelenskiy and talk to the Kremlin — Putin and his generals are quite likely acting once again on erroneous assumptions about the Ukrainian people. They are also, to a surprising degree, trying to reenact World War II, in which strategic bombing played an important, if not exactly decisive, role. The US, after all, has cooled on the concept since the 1990s, as what Pape called “decapitation” — precision strikes aimed at killing or isolating enemy leadership — gained precedence. Russia is either mentally stuck in a previous era of warfighting, technically ill-equipped to refocus in a similar way, or both. More From Bloomberg Opinion:
To contact the author of this story: Leonid Bershidsky at lbershidsky@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Gibney at jgibney5@bloomberg.net Up Next Russia’s Labor-Starved Economy Pays Price of Putin’s Call-Up Have a confidential tip for our reporters? Get in touch Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal Learn more LIVE ON BLOOMBERG Watch Live TV Listen to Live Radio Unmute Sponsored Content Stanford Medicine Applies Innovative Technology to Fight Cancer Stanford Health Economics Russia’s Labor-Starved Economy Pays Price of Putin’s Call-Up Worker shortage spreads after mobilization to fight in Ukraine Teenagers, women and even convicts employed in bigger numbers By Bloomberg News December 1, 2022 at 12:00 AM EST ... Updated on December 1, 2022 at 8:10 AM EST The call-up of men to fight in Ukraine has left labor so scarce in Russia that entire industries are in distress. Two months after the Kremlin announced the mobilization in late September, a record depletion of workers is fast spreading across a country already hobbled by an aging and shrinking population and with unemployment near the lowest ever. A study by the Gaidar Institute in Moscow in November found that up to a third of Russian industry may face a deficit of personnel because of the draft, the most severe crunch since 1993. Agrokomplex, a large agricultural company in the south, now struggles to fill openings for tractor drivers and other workers, in addition to the specialists in areas like agronomy who’ve long been hard to find, said Irina Khmelevskaya, head of recruitment. The mobilization is partly to blame, she said. Russian Labor Shortages Follow War With Ukraine Blue-collar workers are especially in demand after mobilization Source: HeadHunter Footnote: Resumes submitted for jobs in Russia The mobilization of 300,000 men, combined with an even bigger wave of emigration it triggered, will reduce the male labor pool by 2%. That’s among the main reasons that Bloomberg Economics now puts Russia’s potential economic growth rate at just 0.5% -- or half its pre-war level. The threat that labor shortages would eventually bring inflationary pressure has already prompted the Bank of Russia to put interest-rate cuts on hold. The call-up and the flight it caused cut across society, sweeping up urban white-collar professionals and people in rural areas alike. Labor shortages increasingly a threat to sanctions-hit economy In Novosibirsk, Siberia’s most populous city, officials say they can field barely half the staff needed to clear streets of snow with so much of the seasonal workforce from the countryside caught up in the mobilization. More than 200 convicts will be employed at the state-run tank maker Uralvagonzavod. A third of companies lost some employees to the call-up, with nearly a fifth saying they haven’t yet been able to replace them, a November survey showed. Among infrastructure builders, the vast majority is experiencing an increasing lack of qualified labor and expects shortages to get worse in the coming quarters, according to a report. The number of vacancies in IT and telecommunications grew 15% in October from the previous month, according to Russian online recruiter Superjob. In the wake of the call-up, résumés from Russian citizens are flooding nations across much of the post-Soviet region and Turkey, with IT specialists accounting for a fifth of the total, according to HeadHunter Group Plc, Russia’s biggest online job-search platform. More Russians Are Seeking Work in Neighboring Countries Job applications surged in October after mobilization Source: HeadHunter Natalia Danina, chief of HeadHunter’s analytical department, said demand for blue-collar workers is surging. The age group of 20 through 24 currently counts no more than 7 million people, a steep drop from over 12 million a decade ago, she said. “These are terrifying numbers,” Danina said. “Besides, many may have health problems because of the stress. There are physically not enough people left!” The elderly, alongside women and teenagers, are also becoming an important source of workers, according to Danina. Migrants account for up to 10% of the local labor market, with Russia growing more reliant on them to expand the pool of low-skill labor. Migration outflows have meanwhile continued since the start of the year, according to official data published Wednesday, with the number of those leaving Russia in the first nine months more than doubling and rising by more than 323,000. Labor shortages may become a major vulnerability as Russia heads for a downturn likely to extend well into next year, especially as other parts of the economy come under pressure from sanctions imposed by the US and its allies. Almost half the companies surveyed by the Gaidar Institute said staff shortages will make it impossible for them to increase output even if there’s sufficient demand. “Fear and uncertainty have caused a very serious outflow of brains and capital from the country, hurting many sectors,” said Evgeny Kogan, a professor at Moscow’s Higher School of Economics. “If this huge potential for development remains outside the country, it will lead to a major future decline in the economy.” — With assistance by Paul Abelsky (Updates with migration outflows in third paragraph from the bottom.) Up Next US Says It Fears Russia May Use Biological Weapons in Ukraine War Have a confidential tip for our reporters? by TaboolaSponsored LinksFrom The Web Empty Caribbean Cruise Cabins Cost Almost Nothing Cruise Deals | Sponsored searches Empty Alaska Cruise Cabins Cost Almost Nothing Alaska Cruise Deals | sponsored searches New Chevy's Finally On Sale All Things Auto The Most Realistic PC Game of 2022 BuzzDaily Winners New BMWs Basically on Clearance Sale Hot Deals - Top Searches Killer New EVs With Longest Range And Most Power New Electric Cars | Search Ads LIVE ON BLOOMBERG Watch Live TV Listen to Live Radio Most Read
Local residents help police, forensic experts and war crimes prosecution teams exhume a burial site on the outskirts of Kherson, Ukrine. Photographer: Chris McGrath/Getty Images By Riley Griffin November 30, 2022 at 11:30 AM EST Follow the authors @rileyraygriffin Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has elevated US concerns that Vladimir Putin’s government could use biological weapons, according to a top US State Department official who’s in Geneva for a review of the global treaty addressing such threats. “We’ve always been concerned about their own biological program,” Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Bonnie Jenkins said, speaking from the US Mission in Geneva. But those concerns have increased as Russia has continued to make unsupported allegations about US development of biological weapons in Ukraine. Such disinformation could mask Russia’s own weaponization of infectious diseases, she said. “As long as they continue the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine -- staying there and doing what they’re doing and making these allegations -- there’s always a possibility that they’ve been using” disinformation as a cover, she said. relates to US Says It Fears Russia May Use Biological Weapons in Ukraine Bonnie Jenkins Photographer: Riley Griffin/Bloomberg The veteran diplomat spoke in an interview paces away from the European headquarters of the United Nations, where health and security experts have gathered for a three-week conference to review the Biological Weapons Convention, a Cold War-era treaty that was the first to ban a class of weapons of mass destruction. Read More: Russia’s Ukraine Claims Risk Thwarting a Global Conference on Bioweapons In April, the State Department said in a report that the US assessed that Russia maintains an offensive biological weapons program in violation of the disarmament treaty. The report highlighted prior breaches, while indicating that the intelligence behind the current determination remains classified. Conference Chaos So far, Russia’s disinformation campaign has dominated the international forum that’s intended to strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention. Russia has used the platform to double down on its unsupported claims of biological weapons labs in Ukraine, while also maintaining that its invasion was irrelevant to the forum. Those comments have drawn a backlash from the US, Ukraine and their allies. On Wednesday, after public spats earlier in the week, Leonardo Bencini, an Italian diplomat and president of the review conference, pulled the Russian delegation to the side of the room for a private sidebar. The Russians shook their heads repeatedly in dissent, and the conversation continued until the president broke away and invited nongovernmental organizations to give statements, which predominately focused on advances in science and technology. Later, Russia rehashed its allegations, and the US responded it wouldn’t engage further on the claims. Jenkins said the US delegation doesn’t want Russia’s disinformation campaign to distract from good-faith efforts to strengthen the Biological Weapons Convention. At the end of three weeks, countries much reach consensus on future disarmament priorities. “Russia can very easily be a spoiler,” Jenkins said. Another review conference won’t be held for five years, and the Russian disinformation could stymie the rare opportunity for progress, she said. One of the conference’s goals is to bring the treaty “into the 21st century,” she said, and “Covid woke people up” to the dangers of biological threats. Up Next
December 1, 2022 at 4:21 AM ESTUpdated onDecember 1, 2022 at 6:29 AM EST @hugodmiller @bbenrath SWISS BANKERS ASSOCIATION Private Company A group of about 100 Russians and businesses reported nearly $50 billion in Swiss deposits, the government said in its most detailed disclosure yet of Russian wealth stashed in the country’s banks. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Switzerland banned banks from taking more than 100,000 Swiss francs ($106,000) from Russians and said all existing deposits must be reported to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs by the start of June. A total of 123 Russian citizens or entities reported 7,548 “business relationships” to the body, accounting for 46.1 billion francs in assets, SECO said Thursday. Although that tally only accounts for deposits over 100,000 francs, banks in the country hold at least 150 billion francs in Russian assets, the Swiss Bankers Association has said separately. Switzerland’s tally of frozen Russian assets rebounded to 7.5 billion francs in November, SECO said as the government stepped up efforts to block sanctioned Russians from tapping their villas, bank accounts and other assets. Authorities also blocked 15 properties in six cantons, according to SECO. “The sanctioned amount is only a fraction of all Russian assets in Switzerland,” said Erwin Bollinger, SECO’s head of bilateral economic relations. The Swiss government’s decision to embrace European Union sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been strongly criticized by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party for sacrificing the country’s historic neutrality for the sake of sanctions. But others have blasted Switzerland for being too soft on some sanctioned Russians. Swiss authorities in May unfroze accounts belonging to fertilizer billionaire Andrey Melnichenko after he transferred control of his business to his wife. Melnichenko has said he has no political affiliations to the Kremlin and has filed a court challenge against European Union sanctions imposed on him in March. By comparison, the EU has blocked some €300 billion ($311 billion) in Russian central bank reserves and frozen around €19 billion in assets held by sanctioned Russian businessmen, although these estimates aren’t complete. The Swiss government has also been criticized for trying to have it both ways. Its refusal to grant Germany the right to re-export to Ukraine Swiss-made tank ammunition it had sold to its northern neighbor was dismissed as “completely incomprehensible” by a prominent German politician. (Updates throughout with new headline and lead) Up Next EU Closes In on $60 Price Cap for Russian Oil as Deadline Looms Markets
@albertonardelli + Get alerts forAlberto Nardelli @E_Krukowska + Get alerts forEwa Krukowska @europressos + Get alerts forJorge Valero In this article CL1 WTI Crude 81.41USD/bbl.+0.86+1.07% 2057703D TREASURY Private Company The European Union is closing in on a deal to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60 a barrel, their latest attempt to clinch an agreement before a Monday deadline, according to people familiar with the matter. But Poland continues to push to harden the sanctions package before signing off on the cap, and talks will continue, the people said. Warsaw wants new sanctions linked to the cap plan. The bloc is also looking at a mechanism that would allow for regular evaluations and potential revisions of the price every two months, according to a draft document. There’s also a mechanism so that any future resetting of the cap should leave it at least 5% below average market rates. EU talks on the level at which to cap Russian oil have been stuck since last week. Poland and the Baltic nations have demanded a price that puts more pressure on Moscow’s revenues, arguing that earlier proposals were too generous. Greece and other shipping countries have angled for a higher price. The $60 figure would still be higher than where Russia’s flagship barrels now trade. The country’s Urals grade plunged as low as $45.31 a barrel this week at the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk, according to data from Argus Media, a publisher of commodity benchmarks. It rose to $48.04 on Wednesday. How the Cap Looks A $60 cap would be above current prices from western Russia but lower than those in Asia. Source: Argus Media The aim of the price cap -- first proposed by the US amid concern EU sanctions were too strict -- is to keep Russian oil flowing to avoid a global price spike, while also limiting Moscow’s revenue. Sponsored Content This Company Plans to Wean Us Off Fossil Fuels for Good. Here's How Hanwha Deputy US Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo signaled on Thursday that $60 would be acceptable to Washington, saying it was “in the range” Group of Seven countries have discussed. Read: Adeyemo Says $60 Is in Range Coalition Eyes for Russia Oil Cap The Czech presidency of the EU gave Poland until 4 pm in Brussels for internal consultations on a draft deal. It’s not clear whether all EU nations will back $60 but most are supportive if the level is coupled with other demands being met, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday. Ambassadors were discussing the latest proposals at a meeting on Thursday. Plunging Russian Oil Prices Muddy European Talks on Sanctions Poland and the Baltic countries have in parallel asked for firmer progress on a new package of EU sanctions. Clarity on those measures is expected over the next few days and the EU’s executive arm this week also presented proposals to tackle the circumvention of sanctions, use frozen assets and hold Russia accountable for its war of aggression against Ukraine. For the price cap plan to accomplish the US goal of stabilizing global oil prices, the level has to be attractive enough to the Kremlin. If it’s above the market rate, Russia and its buyers can argue it’s simply business as usual. The risk for oil markets is that if the cap is set too low, Moscow may make good on a threat to shut down production -- sending global oil prices higher. The Kremlin hasn’t responded to the latest proposals, though last week it appeared to hint it may soften its stance. Russian Oil Output at Highest Since March Before EU Import Ban Both sets of EU holdouts also want the cap to include a review mechanism. Greece, Malta and Cyprus had separately been seeking guarantees that the shipping industry won’t be discriminated against by international competitors as a result of the cap. G-7 countries are aiming to put the price cap in place before Monday, when wider EU sanctions on oil are due to come into force. The cap plan would ban shipping and services needed to transport Russian oil, such as brokering, financial assistance and insurance, unless the cargoes are purchased below the agreed price threshold. Most G-7 nations will stop importing Russian crude later this year. Similar restrictions, including a price cap, for other petroleum products are due in February. — With assistance by Christopher Condon Up Next Elon Musk Warned by EU Official to Keep Putin Propaganda Off Twitter Most Read Technology Musk’s Neuralink Hopes to Implant Computer in Human Brain in Six Months Pursuits New York, Singapore Are the World’s Most Expensive Cities Right Now Markets Stocks Churn Around 200-Day Average Ahead of Jobs: Markets Wrap Pursuits Rolex to Certify Used Watches as Genuine for the First Time Markets Beijing Eases Covid Curbs, Letting Some Patients Isolate at Home Technology Elon Musk Warned by EU Official to Keep Putin Propaganda Off Twitter Twitter boss must keep disinformation in check, Jourova says Failure would be to ‘actively’ support Russia, she warns Vera Jourova Vera JourovaPhotographer: Lukasz Kobus/European Commission ByStephanie Bodoni December 1, 2022 at 4:30 AM ESTUpdated onDecember 1, 2022 at 8:21 AM EST Listen to this article 2:46 Share this article New Gift this article Follow the authors @StephanieBodoni + Get alerts forStephanie Bodoni In this article TWTR TWITTER INC Private Company META META PLATFORMS-A 121.12USD+3.02+2.56% Elon Musk risks giving a helping hand to Russian President Vladimir Putin if Twitter Inc.’s recent staff cuts prevent the platform from rooting out propaganda about the war in Ukraine, one of the European Union’s top officials warned. Failing to take on fake or misleading content online could “lead to the very quick abuse” of Twitter, European Commission Vice President Vera Jourova, who’s spearheading efforts to tackle online disinformation, said in an interview with Bloomberg. This includes making sure the platform doesn’t become a hub for Russian propaganda. “By not acting actively against the propaganda, which means to remove the pieces of propaganda, the disinformation, then you are actively supporting the war,” she said. “This would be a very tricky and maybe dangerous endeavor or adventure for Mr. Musk” who “wants to be seen as somebody who is helping Ukraine.” She cited Musk’s Starlink satellite system, which has been providing internet communications for both Ukrainian citizens and its military. Read More: Zelenskiy Invites Musk to Ukraine to See Russia’s Devastation The comments are the latest warning shot over the possible side-effects of mass resignations and layoffs after Musk closed his $44 billion purchase of the world’s most influential social media platform -- including its ability to abide by a raft of EU legislation including the bloc’s strict General Data Protection Regulation and new Digital Services Act. “If the network is easily used by Russian propaganda” then “you are very probably breaching the rules of sanctions because you might be distributing the content developed by the sanctioned media, like Russia Today and Sputnik,” said Jourova, a former Czech politician. Twitter is the only platform Jourova uses, having decided years ago to leave Meta Platforms Inc.’s Facebook. Now, she’s wondering whether to keep her account after material such as Chinese pornography recently appeared on her feed. Meanwhile, Jourova said the billionaire owner, who has vowed to bring “free speech” back to Twitter, shouldn’t underestimate the EU and the hefty sanctions Twitter could eventually face if it fails to abide by the bloc’s EU rules. The DSA, which targets harmful content and disinformation on platforms, is still in its infancy and Twitter has a lot to do in coming months to comply before enforcement kicks in starting next year. Fines under the law could go to up to 6% of Twitter’s annual global sales, while GDPR breaches can come with fines of as much as 4%. The commission has also vowed to conduct a “stress test” next year on Twitter’s efforts to comply with content moderation laws. “I feel that there is not enough understanding from Mr. Musk and maybe some other people around him, that Europe is advanced,” said Jourova. And “that after many years of thorough analyzing how to approach the digital sphere, we decided to regulate, and that we mean it, that the regulation has to be respected by everybody who wants to do business on EU territory.” Explainer: How EU Could Frustrate Musk’s Plans for Twitter: QuickTake (Updates with further Jourova comments from sixth paragraph) Up Next Zelenskiy Invites Elon Musk to Ukraine to See Russia’s Devastation Most Read Technology Musk’s Neuralink Hopes to Implant Computer in Human Brain in Six Months Pursuits New York, Singapore Are the World’s Most Expensive Cities Right Now Markets Stocks Churn Around 200-Day Average Ahead of Jobs: Markets Wrap Pursuits Rolex to Certify Used Watches as Genuine for the First Time Markets Beijing Eases Covid Curbs, Letting Some Patients Isolate at Home Politics Zelenskiy Invites Musk to Visit Ukraine in Response to His Talk of Peace Deal Ukraine’s leader responds to Musk’s proposal for a peace deal ‘See this with your own eyes,’ Zelenskiy says of billionaire Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Elon Musk Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Elon MuskSource: Getty Images; Bloomberg ByDaniel Flatley November 30, 2022 at 11:49 AM EST @DanielPFlatley + Get alerts forDaniel Flatley In this article NYT NEW YORK TIMES-A 36.05USD-0.60-1.64% Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy invited Elon Musk to visit his war-ravaged nation and see for himself the damage wrought by Russia, after the world’s richest man floated the idea of a peace deal that would give major concessions to President Vladimir Putin. Musk played a key role restoring Internet service in Ukraine after the invasion, Zelenskiy told the New York Times Dealbook conference Wednesday, saying “life was maintained” thanks to the deployment of his Starlink satellite communications system. But sometime later, “it seems that Elon began to change his opinion and we began to hear all kinds of appeals,” Zelenskiy said. “I always say very openly if you want to understand what Russia has done here, come to Ukraine and you will see this with your own eyes without any extra words,” Zelenskiy told the conference. “And after that, you will tell us how to end this war, who started it and when we can end it.” Musk Tweets Complicate US Diplomacy From Ukraine to Taiwan Zelenskiy was responding to a question about a tweet Musk wrote in October laying out a peace proposal that would require that Ukraine remain neutral, give Crimea to Russia and redo elections in areas of Ukraine taken over by Russia. “This is highly likely to be the outcome in the end – just a question of how many die before then,” Musk wrote. “Also worth noting that a possible, albeit unlikely, outcome from this conflict is nuclear war.” Zelenskiy said he doesn’t know if somebody’s influencing the billionaire or if “he’s making those choices himself.” At one point, Musk also said his company SpaceX wouldn’t continue to foot the bill for portable Starlink terminals that are providing internet communications for both Ukrainian citizens and its military, only to reverse that position. Israel’s Role Zelenskiy also said he has spoken to Benjamin Netanyahu since the recent election in Israel and that he impressed upon the former prime minister, who’s expected to return to power, that Ukraine needs air defense systems to protect against drone attacks. So far, Israel has resisted providing weapons to Ukraine, contributing equipment and humanitarian aid instead. Zelenskiy said that more than 550 Iranian drones have been used in attacks against his country and said that Netanyahu must choose between his relationship with Putin and his country’s historical ties to Ukraine. “He certainly can help us with air defense systems,” Zelenskiy said. “If he just wants to maintain his personal relations with President Putin, then of course he may continue to do what he’s been doing. But if he wants to maintain an historical relationship between Israel and the Ukrainian people then I think you have to do everything you can in order to save as many people as possible.” Zelenskiy said he didn’t think Russia would use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, arguing it would be more dangerous to leave the Russian president with the feeling that he could take another country’s territory without facing consequences. “We should not be afraid” of the nuclear threat, Zelenskiy said. “We need to put him back in his place.”
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