Date: 2024-12-21 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00023647
CHINA
CCP 2022 CONGRESS
President Xi Jinping has put himself in position to rule China for at least another decade, and possibly for life. What will he do with all that power?
CCP 2022 CONGRESS
President Xi Jinping has put himself in position to rule China for at least another decade, and possibly for life. What will he do with all that power?
Xi Jinping Source: Bloomberg
Original article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-26/xi-s-vow-of-world-dominance-by-2049-sends-chill-through-markets
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
China is one of the most interesting subjects to think about in the modern world (2022). The changes that have happened in China is my lifetime are huge and in many ways very positive for more than a billion people. Clearly the 'balance of power' has changed in this time as well with China and Asia gaining power and Europe and the Americas not so much.
I avoided writing that Europe and the Americas were 'losing' power because in fact they have both become more and more powerful over time, but the change has not been as big and as fast for Europe and the Americas as in the case of China and Asia. It is more to do with relative power than absolute power.
My father was a teacher and taught history at the high school level. I remember him preparing a presentation about the myth of the 'good old days' and this has stuck with me until now. He pointed out (in the late 1940s) that almost all the indicators of quality of life for the world's people were better than they had been in the past ... that, in fact, the past had been pretty awful for the vast majority of mankind.
In my own work and experience, I have concluded that absolute measures of social progress and performance are not very meaningful, but that relative measures are substantially more useful. In the context of the progress over the last 50 years of China and the progress of the 'West' ... which in this context includes Japan, South Korea, Australia, et al ... it can be concluded that progress has been substantial for everyone in large part because of a massive amount of cooperation and rather less of competition.
This is changing and quite rapidly because in absolute terms much of the 'West' has become concerned that China is 'winning'. If the world works as a zero-sum system, then if China is winning then the West must be losing. The logic then is to increase military spending at the expense of other more productive investment and inevitably this results in a reduced rate of improvement in quality of life and social conditions for everyone. In the end it is a losing strategy ... but the one usually followed!
Sadly ... winning is the goal of most ... if not every ... nation, and for this the military tends to be the modality. But in modern times this is insanity on steroids. What is the point of massive destuction of physical assets and the killing of huge numbers of people? The loser in a modern war ends up losing everything, while the winner loses less ... but both have horrible losses. War has no place in the modern world ... but it is very present nevertheless ... and because of this a strong defensive military apparatus is essential.
Where China will go is not clear. Putin ... hopefully ... will lose his war (his Special Military Operation) with Ukraine, but at considerable cost to Ukraine and the 'West'. What Xi will learn from this is not clear. The Taiwan issue is not resolved and the signs are not encouraging. At the same time China has a population of around 1.4 billion people and creating socio-economic progress for this many people represents a significant challenge. I would argue that this will best be done by global cooperation at scale rather than by simplistic commercial competition between nations and even worse, military competition.
The challenges are huge ... and wisdom is unlikely to prevail.
Peter Burgess
- Xi’s Vow of World Dominance by 2049 Sends Chill Through Markets
- President has vowed to boost China’s international influence
- His Covid, tech and Taiwan policies have cast doubt on plan
Written by Bloomberg News — With assistance by Sarah Zheng, Lucille Liu, Colum Murphy, Abhishek Vishnoi and Philip Glamann
October 26, 2022 at 6:05 AM EDT
On one level, Xi has made it clear where he wants to take China. At the opening of the Communist Party congress last week, he repeated a goal to make China a modern socialist power by 2035, boosting per capita income to middle-income levels and modernizing the armed forces. Then by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, he wants to ensure the nation “leads the world in terms of composite national strength and international influence.”
It’s how Xi plans to get there that’s unsettling markets. Chinese assets plummeted earlier this week after the president surrounded himself with allies during the twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle, notably positioning Shanghai party chief Li Qiang as premier despite a lack of central government experience. He also signaled a shift of priorities from economic development toward security, heightening investor anxiety over how an unrestrained Xi will steer the country.
“He’d want his legacy in history to be that he achieved the 2049 goal,” said Charles Parton, a former British diplomat and fellow at the Council on Geostrategy and the Royal United Services Institute. “Which if you translate it from party speak, is to become top dog, knock America off its perch, and order the world so that its governance better suits China’s interests and values.”
But Xi’s road map is laden with contradictions: Boosting economic growth while locking down cities under Covid Zero; ensuring technological self-sufficiency while wiping $1.5 trillion off the tech sector; opening more to the world while restricting speech and capital flows. And perhaps the biggest of all, achieving this grand vision while also risking a catastrophic war over Taiwan to complete a “historic mission” and “a natural requirement for realizing the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
“He’s eyeing having an important position in the history books,” said Liu Dongshu, assistant professor at City University of Hong Kong. “A lot of things, including the Taiwan issue, are part of the narrative he can use to justify his extraordinary efforts to take a third and even a fourth term. If you want to break the rule, you need a reason.”
“In the past, if anything was in contradiction with economic development, many people know that China will not do it,” Liu added. “But now it seems that China is willing to sacrifice economic development and market confidence to a much bigger extent.”
When Xi rose to power in 2012, there were early hopes that he would follow his reformist father Xi Zhongxun in seeking to liberalize China at home and open further to the rest of the world.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a US banking conference that China’s new leader was “worldly,” “sophisticated” and “more effective” than his predecessor, Hu Jintao, according to documents included in her hacked campaign emails released by WikiLeaks. Shortly after taking office, Xi trekked to Shenzhen on a trip that seemed echo the 1992 southern tour by former leader Deng Xiaoping, whose “reform and opening up” policy kickstarted China’s economic miracle.
Instead, Xi ended up increasing the party’s role in running the economy and centralizing control to make himself China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. He ended China’s era of hiding and biding on the world stage, crushed dissent from Xinjiang to Hong Kong, and eroded four decades of power-sharing at the top levels of the Communist Party.
relates to Xi’s Vow of World Dominance by 2049 Sends Chill Through Markets
Xi struck a defiant tone in his speech to open the party congress this month, saying China wouldn’t change course even as it faces “dangerous storms” in a more hostile world. Instead, he forcefully offered China’s model up as an alternative to the US and its allies, in essence vowing to overcome the Biden administration’s efforts to hobble the nation’s development by depriving it of chips and other advanced technology.
“Chinese modernization offers humanity a new choice for achieving modernization,” Xi said.
So far, investors aren’t confident he can pull it off. After Xi unveiled the new elite Politburo Standing Committee, stocks in Hong Kong capped their worst day since the 2008 global financial crisis on Monday and the yuan weakened to a 14-year low. The historic sell-off has since rebounded slightly as Chinese officials have sought to reassure investors.
The party congress has dashed hopes among investors that Xi was turning China into “a hybrid model of restrained capitalism and a reform-minded communist philosophy,” said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer of the Global CIO Office.
“The past week’s events only reinforce the fear that Xi is taking the Chinese policy back to communism,” Dugan said. “His vision of openness does not quite align with that of the West.”
Chinese Communist Party's Politburo Standing Committee Meet the Press
Optimists see Xi’s consolidation of power helping to smooth out policy implementation. On his team, Li as incoming premier is known for having supported companies including Alibaba Group Holding and Tesla Inc. when leading Zhejiang and Shanghai.
Li Qiang Source: Bloomberg
At the same time, however, Li also oversaw the punishing two-month pandemic lockdown for Shanghai’s 25 million residents earlier this year. And China still has no clear path out of Covid Zero, which has further hurt an economy weighed down by a property crisis and tech clash with the West.
“National security will likely be China’s top priority given the unstable international environment,” said Vivian Zhan, associate professor of Chinese politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “China has to step up indigenous innovation.”
The one thing Xi doesn’t need to worry about is political stability, with nobody still around in China’s top leadership ranks who could stand in his way. But that doesn’t mean his job will be easier: The bigger issues around Covid, property, chips, Taiwan and an ideological battle with the US have no easy solutions.
“There’s a contradiction between how self-confident the leadership seems to be on the one hand, and how anxious they seem to be about security concerns on the other,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, an emeritus professor of political science at Hong Kong Baptist University. “The next five years are going to be harder for Xi Jinping than the past five years.”
— With assistance by Sarah Zheng, Lucille Liu, Colum Murphy, Abhishek Vishnoi and Philip Glamann
President Xi Jinping has put himself in position to rule China for at least another decade, and possibly for life. The question now is what he’ll do with all that power.
On one level, Xi has made it clear where he wants to take China. At the opening of the Communist Party congress last week, he repeated a goal to make China a modern socialist power by 2035, boosting per capita income to middle-income levels and modernizing the armed forces. Then by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China, he wants to ensure the nation “leads the world in terms of composite national strength and international influence.”
It’s how Xi plans to get there that’s unsettling markets. Chinese assets plummeted earlier this week after the president surrounded himself with allies during the twice-a-decade leadership reshuffle, notably positioning Shanghai party chief Li Qiang as premier despite a lack of central government experience. He also signaled a shift of priorities from economic development toward security, heightening investor anxiety over how an unrestrained Xi will steer the country.
“He’d want his legacy in history to be that he achieved the 2049 goal,” said Charles Parton, a former British diplomat and fellow at the Council on Geostrategy and the Royal United Services Institute. “Which if you translate it from party speak, is to become top dog, knock America off its perch, and order the world so that its governance better suits China’s interests and values.”
But Xi’s road map is laden with contradictions: Boosting economic growth while locking down cities under Covid Zero; ensuring technological self-sufficiency while wiping $1.5 trillion off the tech sector; opening more to the world while restricting speech and capital flows. And perhaps the biggest of all, achieving this grand vision while also risking a catastrophic war over Taiwan to complete a “historic mission” and “a natural requirement for realizing the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
“He’s eyeing having an important position in the history books,” said Liu Dongshu, assistant professor at City University of Hong Kong. “A lot of things, including the Taiwan issue, are part of the narrative he can use to justify his extraordinary efforts to take a third and even a fourth term. If you want to break the rule, you need a reason.”
“In the past, if anything was in contradiction with economic development, many people know that China will not do it,” Liu added. “But now it seems that China is willing to sacrifice economic development and market confidence to a much bigger extent.”
When Xi rose to power in 2012, there were early hopes that he would follow his reformist father Xi Zhongxun in seeking to liberalize China at home and open further to the rest of the world.
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told a US banking conference that China’s new leader was “worldly,” “sophisticated” and “more effective” than his predecessor, Hu Jintao, according to documents included in her hacked campaign emails released by WikiLeaks. Shortly after taking office, Xi trekked to Shenzhen on a trip that seemed echo the 1992 southern tour by former leader Deng Xiaoping, whose “reform and opening up” policy kickstarted China’s economic miracle.
Instead, Xi ended up increasing the party’s role in running the economy and centralizing control to make himself China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. He ended China’s era of hiding and biding on the world stage, crushed dissent from Xinjiang to Hong Kong, and eroded four decades of power-sharing at the top levels of the Communist Party.
Xi struck a defiant tone in his speech to open the party congress this month, saying China wouldn’t change course even as it faces “dangerous storms” in a more hostile world. Instead, he forcefully offered China’s model up as an alternative to the US and its allies, in essence vowing to overcome the Biden administration’s efforts to hobble the nation’s development by depriving it of chips and other advanced technology.
relates to Xi’s Vow of World Dominance by 2049 Sends Chill Through Markets
“Chinese modernization offers humanity a new choice for achieving modernization,” Xi said.
So far, investors aren’t confident he can pull it off. After Xi unveiled the new elite Politburo Standing Committee, stocks in Hong Kong capped their worst day since the 2008 global financial crisis on Monday and the yuan weakened to a 14-year low. The historic sell-off has since rebounded slightly as Chinese officials have sought to reassure investors.
The party congress has dashed hopes among investors that Xi was turning China into “a hybrid model of restrained capitalism and a reform-minded communist philosophy,” said Gary Dugan, chief executive officer of the Global CIO Office.
“The past week’s events only reinforce the fear that Xi is taking the Chinese policy back to communism,” Dugan said. “His vision of openness does not quite align with that of the West.”
Chinese Communist Party's Politburo Standing Committee Meet the Press
Li QiangSource: Bloomberg
Optimists see Xi’s consolidation of power helping to smooth out policy implementation. On his team, Li as incoming premier is known for having supported companies including Alibaba Group Holding and Tesla Inc. when leading Zhejiang and Shanghai.
At the same time, however, Li also oversaw the punishing two-month pandemic lockdown for Shanghai’s 25 million residents earlier this year. And China still has no clear path out of Covid Zero, which has further hurt an economy weighed down by a property crisis and tech clash with the West.
“National security will likely be China’s top priority given the unstable international environment,” said Vivian Zhan, associate professor of Chinese politics at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “China has to step up indigenous innovation.”
The one thing Xi doesn’t need to worry about is political stability, with nobody still around in China’s top leadership ranks who could stand in his way. But that doesn’t mean his job will be easier: The bigger issues around Covid, property, chips, Taiwan and an ideological battle with the US have no easy solutions.
“There’s a contradiction between how self-confident the leadership seems to be on the one hand, and how anxious they seem to be about security concerns on the other,” said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, an emeritus professor of political science at Hong Kong Baptist University. “The next five years are going to be harder for Xi Jinping than the past five years.”
— With assistance by Sarah Zheng, Lucille Liu, Colum Murphy, Abhishek Vishnoi and Philip Glamann
MORE ON THE CONGRESS:
- Xi Positions Shanghai Chief as Next Premier After Messy Lockdown
- Xi Allies Fill China’s Top Jobs in Move Toward One-Man Rule
- The Seven Men Who Will Lead China Into Xi’s Third Term
- How the World Should Deal With Xi Jinping’s New China: Editorial