Date: 2024-10-19 Page is: DBtxt003.php txt00026389
US POLITICS
STATE OF THE UNION
Washington Post journalists in 'chatter mode'!
Rather ... no ... immensely superficial!
STATE OF THE UNION
Washington Post journalists in 'chatter mode'!
Rather ... no ... immensely superficial!
Original article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/07/live-commentary-biden-state-union-opinions/
Peter Burgess COMMENTARY
Peter Burgess
By Washington Post Opinions Staff
March 7, 2024 at 8:45 p.m. EST
Columnists and writers Jim Geraghty, Jason Willick, Megan McArdle, E.J. Dionne Jr., Alexandra Petri, Catherine Rampell, Shadi Hamid and Eduardo Porter offered real-time commentary during President Biden's State of the Union.
Post Opinions editor Alexi McCammond moderated the live commentary.
Read the transcript below.
The event has finished. Asking questions is not available
DIALOG
Alexi McCammond Opinion editor
Mar 7, 8:52 p.m.
Hi everyone! Thanks for joining to discuss President Biden's State of the Union address. Anything in particular you're looking for tonight? If it goes 90 minutes, we will have a lot to talk about...
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Catherine Rampell Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 8:53 p.m.
Hi, I'm Catherine Rampell, follower of economic data and enjoyer of the Muppets. These things may sound unrelated but they have lately collided, as Cookie Monster has been roped into President Biden's anti-greedflation agenda. To that end, I'll be paying particular attention this evening to how the president talks about economic issues and to what extent he touts the economy's strength versus plays up consumers' grievances (as independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has reportedly urged). I'm also interested to hear how he talks about immigration and whether he connects immigration growth with U.S. economic strength.
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E.J. Dionne Jr. Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 8:53 p.m.
Greetings! I'm E. J. Dionne, a columnist for The Post. I am also a professor at Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. I am really happy to be joining with a great group of colleagues to comment on President Biden's State of the Union address. Feeling ready with my cup of tea – one of my favorites, Decaf Irish Breakfast if you want to know.
State of the Union addresses, as I noted in a symposium with some Brookings colleagues yesterday, are always high-wire acts between politics and policy. That's especially true this year. Thursday's speech is President Biden's best chance to shape (or reshape) the dialogue for the 2024 election. This speech is not just about the people watching it, but also about those — especially the media — who influence the public conversation. The timing is very fortunate for Biden. The speech is unusually late in the year and falls just two days after Super Tuesday established that Americans will again be choosing between Biden and Donald Trump.
If you doubt we'll be hearing a lot of election year messages tonight, just consider the excerpts released in advance by the White House.
The first emphasized abortion rights: “If Americans send me a Congress that supports the right to choose I promise you: I will restore Roe v. Wade as the law of the land again.”
The second was about how great things are in the country – and how the media doesn't seem to be paying attention: “It doesn't make the news, but in thousands of cities and towns the American people are writing the greatest comeback story never told. So let's tell that story here and now.” He goes on to describe the impact of his investment programs in “building an economy from the middle out and the bottom up – not the top down.” It's one of his signature lines.
The third was a clear contrast between himself and Trump (without mentioning Trump) and a pushback on the age issue. He extols “the core values that have defined America: honesty, decency, dignity, equality. To respect everyone. To give everyone a fair shot. To give hate no safe harbor.” Then the hammer: “Now some other people my age see a different story: an American story of resentment, revenge, and retribution. That's not me.”
This will be fun tonight. Hi to all my colleagues.
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Alexandra Petri Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 8:59 p.m.
Hi! I'm Alexandra Petri. I write a humor column, and I am also the sort of person who would be watching this anyway, so I am grateful to have the excuse that I have to watch it for work reasons! I regret to announce that George Santos is here (not with me, but apparently wandering the House floor.)
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Shadi Hamid Columnist & Editorial Board member
Mar 7, 9:01 p.m.
Hi! I'm a columnist and Editorial Board member here at the Post. I'm also a professor of Islamic studies. I write about culture, religion and foreign policy. I recently wrote a column trying to understand the sources of Trump's enduring appeal, which I suppose gets at Biden's challenge here tonight.
I'm looking forward to this live chat with my Post colleagues. Whether or not I'm looking forward to the State of the Union speech itself is another matter. And that's part of Biden's problem. It's easy to find Trump enthusiasts, who absolutely love him. But I know very few people who I would describe as die-hard Bidenistas. It's not a constituency that really exists. And it's not going to exist, regardless of what Biden says tonight. Biden's task, it seems to me, is a bit different and certainly more modest. It's to reassure soft Biden voters (including those who are having doubts because of Gaza) and those who don't like either candidate but will compel themselves to do a less-of-two evils sort of thing at the ballot box.
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Jim Geraghty Contributing Columnist
Mar 7, 9:01 p.m.
Hey, everyone. I'm Jim Geraghty, the senior political correspondent of National Review ... because that's what you call a political correspondent who gets old. Chalk me up as someone who thinks that the stakes of tonight are not, in fact, quite as high as some have claimed today. At the end of the night, it's a speech. Joe Biden has given thousands of speeches over the course of his career. As long as he doesn't trip on his way down the aisle, or lose his place or get utterly befuddled by a teleprompter error, Biden will probably deliver a fine, or good enough, speech. Most State of the Union addresses get forgotten within a day or two, and many presidents have hoped for their SOTU address to give them a significant boost in the polls, and it rarely shakes out that way.
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Eduardo Porter
Mar 7, 9:04 p.m.
Hi people — I'm Eduardo Porter, one of the more recent additions to the Post's Opinion team. I am particularly interested in hearing what President Biden has to say about the border, which Republicans will surely be using as a bludgeon against him. Like Catherine, I'm curious about whether he will refer to migrants' contribution to American prosperity. I suspect not. The national conversation about immigration these days has been relentlessly focused on how to keep migrants out. It would take a lot of bravery to talk about the benefits migrants bring with them.
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Shadi Hamid Columnist & Editorial Board member
Mar 7, 9:06 p.m.
One thing I had trouble believing as I thought about tonight is that Biden now, according to FiveThirtyEight, has a lower approval rating (37.9%) now than Trump did right after Jan. 6 (38.6%). More on that here. Can anyone help me understand this?
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Alexandra Petri Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:07 p.m.
One thing I have never said about any State of the Union address is, 'That was not long enough! I wish that had been longer, and I also wish that the president involved had brought more people to sit in the balcony and symbolize things.' I know that the bringing of people with compelling stories to sit in the balcony is now a convention of the speech and that it will likely clock in at 90 minutes or so, but that does not stop me from wishing. Remember Edward Everett!
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E.J. Dionne Jr. Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:07 p.m.
Appreciate your contrarian point, Jim. It's true that we (journalists and politics lovers) can overstate the importance of these speeches. But I think this one actually matters. After a long period of media focus on Biden's age and polls that show Trump ahead (not all polls), this is a chance to bend the coverage and the conversation in a different direction. And if he gives a decent speech, or a very good one, there will be a kind of whiplash (and among Biden's suppoorters, a backlash) on all the age coverage. He certainly knows that this is an opportunity to change the conversation.
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Jim GeraghtyContributing Columnist
Mar 7, 9:13 p.m.
Alexandra — I seem to remember back in the Clinton days, some speechwriter lamenting that the process of writing the State of the Union address that there was always a battle between those who wanted to write the most beautiful, inspiring and melodious speech, and those who wanted every last policy proposal and priority mentioned — and the 'laundry list' always won. This is how, somewhere 40 minutes in, we often get a president talking about 'we'll cap service fees on tickets to concerts and sporting events and make companies disclose all fees upfront' in between Ukraine and the economy. Pity the poor speechwriters.
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Megan McArdleOpinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:13 p.m.
Shadi, I too am mystified. The economy is, obectively, pretty good — including unemployment, which tends to be the most important indicator. But of course, inflation hasn't been a major factor since the 1980s. And now that it's back, it turns out to be MAJOR, both because people don't like high prices and because the way we get back to lower inflation is through higher interest rates, which have driven the cost of major purchases like housing and cars even higher.
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E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:14 p.m.
I covered that Edward Everett speech, Alexandra!
Seriously, the length issue is interesting. In 1995, Bill Clinton's SOTU was one hour and 25 minutes. The press panned it, but polls showed most poeople liked it. A long speech lets a president talk to every consituency. People hear something in it they like, that responds on their favotite issue. And I can't wait for your arch response to this, Alexandra, Happy to play your straight man tonight.
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Megan McArdle Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:19 p.m.
EJ — I wonder if that's still true these days, when a lot fewer normal people settle down in front of the television for SOTU. I mean, I can tell a story where it's actually better, because a lot of people are going to experience this speech in the form of TikTok clips (at least until Congress bans it). They'll see just the highlights, the popular little giveaways to favored constituencies that every president likes to cram into his speech — and if the adminstration gets lucky with the social media algorithms, they'll see the ones most targeted at them, without having the chance to get bored by the rest.
Of course, if the administration gets unlucky, they'll see all the wrong ones, and he'll lose the customary bump. I really don't know which is more likely.
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Eduardo Porter
Mar 7, 9:19 p.m.
Hey Megan, but hasn't inflation been tamed by now? Sure, prices are up around 3 percent over the last year. That's above the Fed's target. But it's a pretty decent number, way down from 9 percent less than a couple of years ago.
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Shadi Hamid Columnist & Editorial Board member
Mar 7, 9:21 p.m.
Megan: Yes, people seem to really hate inflation and blame their presidents for it, but I think we also have to look at how perceptions of inflation interact with other variables. Geoff Shullenberger of Compact magazine had a really interesting 'vibes' thread on this. He points to just how unusual 2016-2021 was in American history and how it led to a 'revolution in rising expectations.' All 'vibes' explanations leave something to be desired, but I found this to be a intriguing, counterintuitive perspective.
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Megan McArdle Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:21 p.m.
Eduardo — Yes, but there are people who haven't gotten raises big enough to bring them back to where they were before the Great Inflation, and those prices still sting, especially at the grocery store, where inflation has been really high. People notice groceries, and grocery prices, more than a lot of other things they buy less regularly, and I think that's one reason it's still hurting Biden.
Eventually, of course, expectations will adjust and the rage will fade. But maybe not before November.
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Jim Geraghty Contributing Columnist
Mar 7, 9:23 p.m.
Credit Biden. He knows how to handle the cell phone for taking a selfie with members of Congress.
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E.J. Dionne Jr. Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:25 p.m.
Megan — You are totally right that these speeches don't have the audiences that they used to. There are a lot more TV/streaming options now than there were in LBJ's or even Clinton's day. (There was no streaming back then!) And polarized partisanship means that the viewership tilts hard toward people who support the president's party. But Biden needs to give heart to his own party, so that partisan tilt may have certain benefits for him tonight. And if he can get coverage on particular programs he proposes, listing a bunch of them may get him positive attention with different groups, on different media and in social media conversations.
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Eduardo Porter
Mar 7, 9:26 p.m.
I hear you Megan, and yet despite higher prices, it appears that workers' real wages have risen. Their purchasing power is greater, even after accounting for inflation. And this is particularly true for low-pay workers.
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Jason Willick Opinion columnist
Mar 7, 9:26 p.m.
Hello colleagues! I'm Jason Willick and I'm a columnist at the Post. This is probably Biden's most important State of the Union. Anyone disagree? It comes at a low point in his presidency, polling-wise, and offers a chance to reset ahead of what is certainly the last campaign of his career. I'll be watching for how he balances between a traditional, policy-focused State of the Union and campaign speech.
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Catherine Rampell Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:26 p.m.
Shadi and Megan mentioned that they're perplexed by why Biden is doing so badly in approval ratings. I agree the numbers are in some ways confusingly low. At least, if you'd told me five years ago about an incumbent president presiding over 3.7 percent unemployment, 2-something percent inflation, ~5 percent annualized GDP growth, etc., I'd probably guess they were reasonably popular. Or at least average.
The driver is not only continued resentment over price growth to date, but also increasing partisanship in approval ratings. Republicans are overwhelmingly negative in their assessment of Biden (for example, about 5 percent approval in this Reuters poll tracker); Democrats are quite positive (81 percent in the same tracker) but not positive enough to offset the weight of Republicans' disapproval.
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Eduardo Porter
Mar 7, 9:27 p.m.
Humor is a great tool.
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Jason Willick Opinion columnist
Mar 7, 9:28 p.m.
Right out of the gate, Biden ties the contest over democracy globally to domestic politics. This will alienate Republicans by effectively casting them as parallel to America's foreign enemies.
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Catherine Rampell Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:29 p.m.
Interesting to see Speaker Johnson applaud Biden's line about the importance of arming Ukraine so it can defend itself.
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Megan McArdle Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:29 p.m.
A big, dramatic opening, but a friend messages: 'The delivery is a total mismatch with the words.'
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E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:30 p.m.
'To wake up the Congress.' Shades of Harry Truman.
Good and important that he is leading with democracy and the threats to it around the world. His comments on Putin are a reminder to Nikki Haley and her supporters that on one of the most important issues of our moment, Biden is on their side. Trump isn't. The Reagan reference underscores how distant Trump is from that Republican tradition. Biden pulls no punches with the reference to Trump (without naming him) as bowing down to Putin.
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Shadi Hamid Columnist & Editorial Board member
Mar 7, 9:30 p.m.
Really important point, Catherine, on how partisanship drives high disapproval ratings for even otherwise successful presidents. Maybe I'm naive, but even if you hate Democrats in some abstract sense, it's less clear to me how so many people can hate someone as (relatively) gentle, old and Uncle-y as Biden. He just doesn't seem all that hate-able to me, yet a lot of people claim to have passionate feelings against him.
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Jason Willick Opinion columnist
Mar 7, 9:30 p.m.
Well, to answer my initial question, Biden is definitely treating this as a campaign speech. Browbeating Speaker Mike Johnson in this way might help Biden's campaign, but it won't give Johnson political cover to pass more Ukraine aid.
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Megan McArdle Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:30 p.m.
Catherine — Also interesting to see Biden name-check Reagan for his famous line: 'Mr. Gorbachev, Tear Down this Wall!'
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Shadi Hamid Columnist & Editorial Board member
Mar 7, 9:31 p.m.
Seems like an odd choice to start with the importance of sending weapons to Ukraine. I'm not sure I would have led with that.
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Jim Geraghty Contributing Columnist
Mar 7, 9:32 p.m.
The declaration that 'Putin will not stop at Ukraine,' received initial nods of concern from both Vice President Harris and House Speaker Mike Johnson; Harris then offered a standing ovation. Johnson remained seated and kept nodding. (I have a feeling Johnson will resemble a Bobblehead doll by the end of the night.) You know, Speaker Johnson, if you wanted to pass an aid package for Ukraine — and Israel and Taiwan — you could do something about that.
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Eduardo Porter
Mar 7, 9:32 p.m.
Speaker Mike Johnson seems to be nodding. Does he agree with Biden on Ukraine funding?
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Catherine Rampell Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:33 p.m.
'You can't love your country only when you win' is a great line.
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Jason Willick Opinion columnist
Mar 7, 9:35 p.m.
This is not a speech designed to convince Congress to pass Ukraine aid. It's a speech designed to make the issue even more polarizing. Obviously the White House has decided that's a good reelection strategy.
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E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:35 p.m.
'We will not walk away. We will not bow down. I will not bow down.' Then he pivots from Putin to Jan. 6, the insurrectionists and Trump's election lies. Putting this at the beginning of his speech with one forceful line after another tells us a lot about the coming campaign. It speaks to the core Biden strategy of 2024, which is similar to the strategy Democrats followed in the 2022: Making democracy and Trump's threats to it central to the campaign. This is an argument that works with middle-of-the-road suburban swing voters, with anti-Trump Republicans — but also with Democrats across the board.
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Shadi Hamid Columnist & Editorial Board member
Mar 7, 9:36 p.m.
Hate to dwell on this because I agree with Biden substantively on Ukraine. But I have trouble imagining that there's a large constituency of Biden doubters watching that would be like, yeah, Ukraine, this makes me think about Biden differently. Same with Jan. 6. Is there anyone left in America who's mind isn't made up on Jan. 6 and its aftermath?
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Catherine Rampell Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:36 p.m.
Ha, yes Eduardo. As I've written before: America is now a country of losers, or so politicians like to tell us.
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Alexandra Petri Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:38 p.m.
'Had to leave the state to get what she needed' and 'the treatment they need' and referring to a national 'ban on reproductive freedom.' Feels like there is a single word that you could use in all these abortion rights scenarios. Interesting that he isn't using it.
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E.J. Dionne Jr. Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 9:38 p.m.
The huge ovations on the Democratic side on reproductive rights show they know a winning issue when they hear one.
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Alexi McCammond Opinion editor Mar 7, 9:38 p.m. Nice shoutout to VP Harris for her work on championing access to reproductive rights 305
Megan McArdle Opinion Columnist Mar 7, 9:38 p.m. All State of the Union addresses are kind of campaign speeches. But this is, so far, just a campaign speech — a speech against Republicans, not for whatever constituency-pleasing laundry list your aides dreamed up. 22
Shadi Hamid Columnist & Editorial Board member Mar 7, 9:40 p.m. Why is Biden starting off with some of the most polarizing (or less relevant for ordinary Americans) topics? Re: Ukraine, have to agree with Jason here. The more an unpopular president uses his bully pulpit to emphasize a particular topic and cast the other party as particularly bad on it, the more the other party will be likely to dig in its heels. 10
Eduardo Porter Mar 7, 9:40 p.m. I'm a little skeptical about the political power of that 'from the middle out and the bottom up' thing. 5
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion Columnist Mar 7, 9:40 p.m. 'Turning setback into comeback — that's what America does.' Nice line, we'll hear it a lot. Republican friends on this chat: Kind of Reaganesque, isn't it? 262
Eduardo PorterMar 7, 9:40 p.m. Manufacturing capital of the world? 10
Jason Willick Opinion columnist Mar 7, 9:40 p.m. If this campaign speech is any guide, the 2024 Democratic presidential campaign will be similar to the party's 2022 midterm campaign: Democracy and abortion. I won't underestimate the message after its success in the midterms. 190
Megan McArdleOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 9:41 p.m. Shadi: This is red meat for his base. I cannot imagine why his team thinks that's a good strategy for this speech. It's generating clips that will circulate among cooing progressives, not ones that will bring his disaffected voters back into the fold or draw some more swing voters his way. 16
Jim GeraghtyContributing ColumnistMar 7, 9:42 p.m. Biden complains that the economic recovery under his presidency is 'the greatest story never told.' I'm sure a lot of Democrats are reacting to this speech, so far, like Meg Ryan in the diner scene of 'When Harry Met Sally,' but I marvel at a Democratic president whining that he hasn't gotten enough generous coverage. Hey, Mr. President, if you really think you're getting such a bad deal in coverage, maybe you should agree to more interviews and hold more formal press conferences. 36
Eduardo PorterMar 7, 9:42 p.m. I'm very skeptical that Biden can claw back White working-class voters with his 'Buy America' spiel. 15 Chat areaQuestion input area. Use Ctrl+Alt+Q to jump to this section and ask a question
Jim Geraghty Contributing Columnist Mar 7, 9:44 p.m. Megan, I suspect what we're seeing from Biden 2024 is a version of what we saw from Obama 2012. Forget the wishy-washy undecided folks in the middle; they're too few, too tuned-out and too hard to reach. Rile up your base and get every last vote from every blue corner of every swing state. Considering the state of Biden's overall approval numbers, maybe this is the best strategy available. 148
E.J. Dionne Jr. Opinion Columnist Mar 7, 9:44 p.m. I respectfully disagree with Jason and Shadi on his Ukraine comments at the beginning of the speech. I think raising the political stakes puts pressure on the Republican leadership to bring a bill to help Ukraine that has broad Republican support. He is underscoring that the refusal to help Ukraine is in part a response to Trump pressure. At this point, being tough is the more promising strategy. We'll find out. 354
Catherine Rampell Opinion Columnist Mar 7, 9:44 p.m. Fun fact about that 'manufacturing capital of the world' line: By value-added, we actually already have the second-highest manufacturing output. America 'makes' a lot. We just do it with more robots and fewer workers than we used to. 109
Shadi Hamid Columnist & Editorial Board member Mar 7, 9:46 p.m. This is where Biden seems especially strong: the economy, infrastructure, rebuilding our industrial base. Apparently, though, a lot of Americans don't agree with me. 130
Megan McArdle Opinion Columnist Mar 7, 9:47 p.m. Jim, considering his poll numbers, I don't see how that can possibly work. Especially now that educational polarization has left Democrats with the segment of the electorate most likely to turn out (one reason his party did so well in the 2022 midterms). How many of his core base of college-educated voters weren't going to vote come November? 11
Eduardo Porter Mar 7, 9:48 p.m. To Catherine's point: The number of manufacturing jobs in the United States is no higher than in 2019, before the pandemic. 5
E.J. Dionne Jr. Opinion Columnist Mar 7, 9:48 p.m. In response to a number of comments: Biden won't win hard-core White working-class Trump supporters. What he is trying to do is chip away at Trump's lead in the working class. If Biden loses red counties by 60-40 instead of 75-25, he can win the election. Also important to shore up support in the Latino working class. 256
Shadi Hamid Columnist & Editorial Board member Mar 7, 9:49 p.m. As a random aside, Biden mentioned expanding broadband internet access. A good thing, no doubt! But I'll just note that broadband has been a major driver of partisan polarization, and this academic study lays out how. Life is about tradeoffs, I guess. 24
Catherine Rampell Opinion Columnist Mar 7, 9:50 p.m. There was a fair amount of hype from Democratic surrogates about how animated and energetic this 'old man' would be tonight. He certainly seems riled up! I'd need a few Red Bulls to sound like this right now. 206Press Enter to expand
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion ColumnistMar 7, 9:51 p.m. Love your Red Bull line, Catherine. He is energetic — as he had to be. 130Press Enter to expand
Eduardo PorterMar 7, 9:53 p.m. Biden's promise of a manufacturing bonanza does feel at odds with predictions from the Labor Department that manufacturing employment 10 years from now will be lower than it is today. 10Press Enter to expand
Jim GeraghtyContributing ColumnistMar 7, 9:54 p.m. Red Bull? The way this speech is going so far, when it's done I want Biden to pee in a cup to test for steroids. 92Press Enter to expand
Catherine RampellOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 9:55 p.m. Definitely in favor of promises to 'cut red tape' for building new homes. Housing shortages are serious issues across the country right now, not just the coasts. I'm skeptical this can happen easily in a federalist system, but worth shooting for. 83Press Enter to expand
Jason WillickOpinion columnistMar 7, 9:56 p.m. Started out with a striking blast of partisanship. Now going into the more pedestrian laundry list of populist-sounding policy tweaks that are more typicial of SOTUs. 1Press Enter to expand
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion ColumnistMar 7, 9:56 p.m. The health-care issue has been a winner for Democrats since the Republican repeal effort in 2017. The combination of saving and expanding Obamacare with the prescription drug price cuts appeals to important pieces of the electorate. One way to look at this speech is how Biden is trying to build back his constituency piece by piece — a point or two here and a point or two there. Each of the issues he has raised are part of that rebuilding effort. 221Press Enter to expand
Megan McArdleOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 9:56 p.m. Fifteen years ago, when Obamacare was being negotiated, I worried that the government would cap drug prices and — given that the U.S. provides a vastly disproportionate share of pharmaceutical profits — thereby destroy a lot of the incentives for innovation. Now I'm sure of it, with Biden proposing to have Medicare 'negotiate' the price of 500 drugs. (The negotiation consists of a 'take or leave it' offer, and 'leaving it' means you can't sell any drugs to Medicare.) A bit ironic, at a moment when pharmaceutical companies are bringing us some amazing miracles, from vaccines to what seem to be the first safe and effective drugs for obesity to cures for cystic fibrosis. 11Press Enter to expand
Shadi HamidColumnist & Editorial Board memberMar 7, 9:57 p.m. Two mentions of 'trickle-down economics.' It's worth noting that the 14th century Islamic philosopher Ibn Khaldun is basically one of the fathers of Reagonomics. Arthur Laffer himself said he got the idea for the Laffer Curve from Ibn Khaldun. And Reagan himself said in a 1993 New York Times oped, quoting Ibn Khaldun: 'At the beginning of the empire, the tax rates were low and the revenues were high. At the end of the empire, the tax rates were high and the revenues were low.' Muslims created a great many things: algebra, hummus and apparently neoliberalism. It's too bad Republicans don't seem to love Muslims anymore. 191Press Enter to expand
Megan McArdleOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 9:58 p.m. Shadi, I didn't know any of that! 31Press Enter to expand
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion ColumnistMar 7, 9:59 p.m. Good history lesson, Shadi. 59Press Enter to expand
Alexandra PetriOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:02 p.m. Hey! I was initially confused by the mention of trickle-down economics not trickling down to his father's kitchen table — why was he at his father's kitchen table in the Reagan era? — but if it has 14th-century origins, then he could have been at the table at any time! 82Press Enter to expand
Catherine RampellOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:02 p.m. Rubio does not applaud Biden's call to expand the child tax credit. He had been one of the most active Republicans on this issue, once upon a time. 157Press Enter to expand
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:03 p.m. This criticism of the Republican tax cut will be central not only to the 2024 election but also to debates afterward if Biden wins. Always a good idea to link the Trump-era tax cuts to rising deficits, a way to call out Republican hypocrisy on their deficit talk. If they want to justify cutting programs, do it on the merits of the programs. Don't pretend it's primarily about deficits. 236Press Enter to expand
Eduardo PorterMar 7, 10:03 p.m. Biden's reference to Dupont recalls the nagging nostalgia that Democrats often express about America's paternalistic capitalism 100 or so years ago. Suddenly, Eastman Kodak becomes the embodiment of a more just society. What's forgotten in this representation is that these companies were monopolies with rents to spare. They could share some of the monopoly profits with their workers without breaking a sweat. 30Press Enter to expand
Jim GeraghtyContributing ColumnistMar 7, 10:03 p.m. I suspect, when all is said and done, those of us watching at home will think this was Joe Biden at his most fired-up in years — impassioned, energetic, far from a tired old man. But overall a LOT of shouting, a blistering tone throughout the whole speech. I half-expect the president to emulate Howard Beale and declare that he's mad as hell, and he's not going to take it anymore. But in the end, how many Americans watch the whole speech from beginning to end? A lot of Americans will just get the 30 or 60 second excerpts on YouTube or social media, and those excerpts will likely feature Biden shouting, roaring and bringing congressional Democrats to their feet. Ironically, this is a speech tailored for those who aren't going to watch the whole thing. 40Press Enter to expand
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 10:05 p.m.
Want to take this opportunity to thank you, Catherine, for your great arguments on the importance of the child tax credit. Glad Biden mentioned it.
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Shadi HamidColumnist & Editorial Board member
Mar 7, 10:05 p.m.
Biden's mention of public school and education was a bit jarring because I so rarely hear school funding/charter schools mentioned as a key issue, unlike the 2000s with both Bush and Obama (for a bit). 'No Child Left Behind' is something those of us of a certain age can still remember. It was a big deal. There was an entire period where a group of education reformers like Michelle Rhee were mini-celebrities and philanthropists were experimenting with new approaches and pilot programs. 40Press Enter to expand
Alexandra PetriOpinion Columnist
Mar 7, 10:05 p.m.
Shrinkflation!
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E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 10:06 p.m.
Shrinkflation. The hidden issue of 2024! Sen. Bob Casey, whom Biden shouted out, has made it a personal cause.
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Alexi McCammondOpinion editor
Mar 7, 10:07 p.m.
Slashing credit card fees from $32 to $8, as Biden just announced, is a significant change that a lot of people will actually feel.
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Eduardo Porter
Mar 7, 10:07 p.m.
I have a hard time getting my head around the idea that junk fees and shrinkflation merit this much attention.
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Catherine RampellOpinion Columnist
Mar 7, 10:08 p.m.
Oh no, more shrinkflation nonsense. For the record, there is *less* downsizing of products today than there was in 2015-2016. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics actually keeps track, for the purpose of adjusting prices when calculating the consumer price index.
Sen. Bob Casey's bill (which Biden just endorsed) is also a form of price controls. image
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Alexi McCammond Opinion editor
Mar 7, 10:09 p.m.
The plant he mentioned earlier in Belvedere, Ill., is near my hometown (Rockford) and I've had friends and family work there. It's a big deal he's keeping it open. Ditto the junk fees and credit card fees.
Those things add up and become untenable for a lot of people.
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Eduardo Porter
Mar 7, 10:09 p.m.
Still haven't figured out what anybody means by 'shutting down the border'
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Jason Willick Opinion columnist
Mar 7, 10:09 p.m. Biden had success with his colloquys with jeering Republicans at the last SOTU. He's trying to repeat it in this one, but it hasn't landed the same way so far.
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Megan McArdleOpinion Columnist
Mar 7, 10:09 p.m.
Billionaires typically avoid taxes in one of a few ways:
1) They lost money in earlier years, and get to offset that against current income.
2) They donate a lot of money to charity.
3) They own tax-free municipal bonds.
Unlikely Biden will get rid of the first — which just reflects the fact that business revenue, and the expenses needed to earn it, don't necessarily line up neatly with the calendar year — so it will be interesting whether his proposal has a worse effect on the non-profit sector, or city and state finances.
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E.J. Dionne Jr.
Opinion Columnist
Mar 7, 10:09 p.m.
So interesting to see Sen. James Lankford, the staunchly conservative architect of the border bill, nod his head when Biden described the rough measures it contains.
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Jason WillickOpinion columnist
Mar 7, 10:10 p.m.
‘An illegal.' That's 1990s Joe Biden talking again.
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Jim GeraghtyContributing Columnist
Mar 7, 10:10 p.m.
Apparently, Marjorie Taylor Greene is giving the Republican response to the State of the Union address, during the State of the Union address.
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Catherine RampellOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:10 p.m. Did anyone bring Border Patrol agents (whose union endorsed the now-defunct Senate border bill) to the speech? Missed opportunity if not. 84Press Enter to expand
Megan McArdleOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:11 p.m. That bobble, where Biden appeared to lose track of what he was saying, was pretty bad, and is going to go viral. 7Press Enter to expand
Megan McArdleOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:12 p.m. That may well be what Marjorie Taylor Greene was hoping for. If so, she got it. 5Press Enter to expand
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:13 p.m. 'I will not demonize immigrants saying they are poison in our country.' This is really interesting: Biden talks really tough on the border and then pivots to defend immigrants from Trump's attacks and the value of immigration to the country. It is politically smart to link the two. But it's also morally important to speak up for immigrants. Good moment. 314Press Enter to expand
Shadi HamidColumnist & Editorial Board member
Mar 7, 10:13 p.m.
Biden is really old. But he's not that old. Beji Caid Essebsi served as Tunisia's president from 2014 until he died in 2019, when he was 92. Mahathir Mohamed last served as Malaysia's prime minister at the age of 94. Maybe that's the case Biden should have been making: He's not as old as Mahathir. And circling back to Ronald Reagan's love for the 14th century Islamic philosopher Ibn Khaldun. I just re-read Reagan's 1993 oped where he quotes him. He makes a joke at the end about how old he is, suggesting that he was one of Ibn Khaldun's contemporaries six centuries ago. 'And, no, I did not personally know Ibn Khaldun, although we may have had some friends in common!' Kind of amusing. 130Press Enter to expand
Eduardo PorterMar 7, 10:14 p.m. Good line: 'I will not demonize immigrants.' Not sure he really believes that, though. Because they are giving him a headache. 21Press Enter to expand
Catherine RampellOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:14 p.m. Agree, E.J., with your take on Biden's remarks about immigration. My only note is that it would have been a good opportunity to quote Reagan again, in his poetic remarks about the value of immigration. 61Press Enter to expand
Shadi HamidColumnist & Editorial Board memberMar 7, 10:16 p.m. Maybe I was in the bathroom or something, but has Biden not mentioned Gaza yet? I wonder if he could plausibly get through the whole speech without even making reference to it. I can't imagine it, and I assume he'll end with Gaza, but it's an interesting through experiment. 17Press Enter to expand
Catherine RampellOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:16 p.m. Another metric on the Red-Bullheadedness of this speech: In the text as prepared for delivery, there are 80 exclamation points (!). Would love to see a punctuational analysis of prior SOTU texts. 28Press Enter to expand
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:17 p.m. This is the Freedom Agenda Biden likes to talk about. The Freedom to Vote and John Lewis voting rights bills, an attack on book bans, a defense of trans rights. He was especially detailed on voting rights, which should be at the top of the list of bills Dems should enact as soon as they get control of both houses again. (I know, I know, holding the Senate will be very hard this year.) 161Press Enter to expand
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:19 p.m. Nancy Pelosi always quotes those Reagan lines, Catherine. Wonder if there is a cap on how often a Democrat can cite Reagan in a speech. 40Press Enter to expand
Jim GeraghtyContributing ColumnistMar 7, 10:19 p.m. You know, I thought Biden was having a really strong night. But then that guy up in the balcony yelled something incoherently, and well, it persuaded me. 'RAK RAKKA RAKKA REE' is just such a compelling message, who could argue against it? Well done, random heckler or protester who no one came to see. I'm sure you did your cause a lot of good tonight. E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:23 p.m. It's a real change in politics over the last decade: The gun issue is now a Democratic issue. A Biden aide told me that when the gun issue came up in focus groups in the past, the words 'Second Amendment' were mentioned a lot. In focus groups now, the most common sentiment is 'I want to protect my children.' We will win this fight someday. 249Press Enter to expand
Jason WillickOpinion columnistMar 7, 10:25 p.m. Biden brings up 'a two-state solution over time.' That's more tentative than the proposals for an immediate two-state solution or for unilateral U.S. recognition of a Palestinian state. 14Press Enter to expand
Jim GeraghtyContributing ColumnistMar 7, 10:26 p.m. How, exactly, will U.S. military forces build a temporary pier on the Gaza coast without putting any 'boots on the ground'? Is the plan to build the pier offshore and then float it over toward the Palestinians? How close are our forces going to be to the coast? No one's worried about anybody in Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad or any other extremist or terrorist group taking shots at American forces? And if we're going to do the Palestinians some favors, doesn't that seem like the sort of thing that should involve the freeing of some hostages? 24Press Enter to expand
Eduardo PorterMar 7, 10:28 p.m. Hey EJ, as somebody who grew up outside of the United States, I have a hard time getting my head around the debate over guns here. To my naïve foreign eyes, it's crazy that an interpretation of a centuries-old legal understanding determines how communities can protect themselves against lethal force. 214Press Enter to expand
Catherine RampellOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:29 p.m. The cancer moonshot is back. 15Press Enter to expand
Shadi HamidColumnist & Editorial Board memberMar 7, 10:30 p.m. The section on Gaza was better than I would have expected, but by no means great, in that Biden still pulled his punches in criticizing Israel's bombardment of Gaza or drawing any clear red lines for Netanyahu. He didn't draw them. That said, I was worried Biden would struggle to speak of Palestinians as actual people deserving of rights and protection. He did, though. After questioning the Palestinian death toll a couple months ago in a moment that went viral and set off Arab and Muslim-Americans against him, Biden explicitly said more than 30,000 killed, 'most of them not Hamas.' 150Press Enter to expand
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:31 p.m. Eduardo, I was born in the United States and I too find it crazy that a misinterpretation of an old Constitutional amendment leaves us defenseless against lethal force. The answer lies in the radicalization of the gun rights movement in the 1970s. 257Press Enter to expand
Megan McArdleOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:32 p.m. Biden suggests that we might be able to end cancer as we know it. Fifteen years ago, cancer researchers got mad at you when you asked about a cure, explaining that that was unrealistic. Now, that doesn't seem so farfetched, thanks not to his new ARPA-H agency, but because of biomedical innovation. Of course, he just suggested that Medicare is going to severely reduce what it pays for new drugs, and cancer tends to be a disease of old age, so .... 16Press Enter to expand
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:33 p.m. 'It's not how old we are. It's about how old are our ideas.' I have been waiting for that, and I think we will hear that sound-bite again and again. The subtext is: 'Look, we're both old, but I'm about the future.' 307Press Enter to expand
Shadi HamidColumnist & Editorial Board memberMar 7, 10:35 p.m. Good point from Jason: Biden was not as forceful about a two-state solution as some members of his administration have, occasionally, been. Biden referred to the need for a two-state solution 'over time.' That suggests a very long, slow, indefinite process. Anything (in theory) is possible over time, assuming enough time passes. I'm not sure this was by design, but with a text as pored over as this one, I think it's fair to assume it wasn't an accident. 24Press Enter to expand
Shadi HamidColumnist & Editorial Board memberMar 7, 10:38 p.m. It's a good sentiment, and presumably presidents should say it, but I've often wondered what being a 'president for all Americans' is actually supposed to mean, in a time as polarized as our own. 19Press Enter to expand
Alexi McCammondOpinion editorMar 7, 10:39 p.m. Agree that will be a line we hear a lot through November, EJ. President Biden definitely had the energy his advisors promised! And touched on a lot of important topics, both domestic and foreign, that voters in what would be his winning coalition needed to hear. Again: A single speech will not make or break the campaign. But it was good. Totally solid. 170Press Enter to expand
Alexi McCammondOpinion editorMar 7, 10:39 p.m. Any parting thoughts before we wrap this up, smart folks? Really appreciate your time. And we so appreciate all of you readers who joined us tonight! xx 31Press Enter to expand
Jason WillickOpinion columnistMar 7, 10:41 p.m. It was a speech aimed at the base to a surprising degree. Perhaps the calculation was that the base needed a shot in the arm after recently aired concerns about Biden's age and poll numbers. 64Press Enter to expand
Catherine RampellOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:41 p.m. Compelling, barnburner of a speech, even if not much new on policy ideas. Lots of good lines that I expect will have a life beyond tonight, including the one E.J. flagged. 186Press Enter to expand
Jim GeraghtyContributing ColumnistMar 7, 10:41 p.m. The Biden campaign staff is probably doing cartwheels down the hallways right now. This was Biden at his most fired up and full-throated, shouting through large stretches of the speech, angry at the opposition, contemptuous of 'my predecessor.' The only change that Biden would have to make to this speech, to deliver it at the Democratic national convention in Chicago, is substituting 'my predecessor' to 'Donald Trump.' It wasn't much of a 'State of the Union' speech, but it clearly wasn't meant to be; this is a campaign year, and we got a campaign speech. Speaker Mike Johnson had warned House Repulicans not to heckle, but the usual suspects like Marjorie Taylor Greene took the bait — and, of course, promoted themselves in the process. Will this help Biden? As I said when we began, State of the Union addresses are usually forgotten in a day or two. When Americans go to the polls in November (or early voting in October!), I don't think they'll be thinking about this speech much. A lot will happen in the months to come — Trump trials! — and events will have more influence on the outcome of the presidential race than tonight's speech. My sympathies to Alabama Sen. Katie Britt, who will probably be giving the Republican response after 11 p.m. Eastern. 68Press Enter to expand
Shadi HamidColumnist & Editorial Board memberMar 7, 10:44 p.m. Some concluding thoughts. Agree with Alexi: It was, well, solid. Not great — but how could it have been great? — but solid. And that's pretty good, considering some of the worst-case scenarios of Biden stumbling really badly and losing his train of thought or pausing for several seconds, which would have made for endless viral clips. It's not the speech I would have given. But then again, I'm not the president of the United States of America. I do, though, wish Biden was a better speaker. The charisma gap with Trump is large, unfortunately, and that's going to be an ongoing challenge for him. Also, Trump rarely misses a beat. He just keeps talking, which will present a problem for Biden in televised debates in the general election. 23Press Enter to expand
Alexi McCammondOpinion editorMar 7, 10:44 p.m. Yep. And media will run with (justifiably) positive stories about him now, which will be a welcome change for the Biden campaign. 146Press Enter to expand
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:46 p.m. I am curious how those less sympathtic to Biden respond, but I think he had a very good night. As we have all been saying in one way or another, he was forceful, energetic and engaged. (In tribute to Catherine: The Red Bull factor.) He had to be like that to push back on the all the age talk. I would be very surprised if there are not a lot of stories coming out of this saying that he will get a respite for a while on that front. His party helped him. The energy on the Democratic side reinforced the energy at the podium. We got a Spark Notes on what his campaign will be about. By beginning with the importance of democracy and Trump's threat, he undercored his central theme. He will combine an argument that the economy is roaring with efforts to make it stronger and include everybody. He will emphasize abortion rights and his freedom agenda. And he has a lot of paticular issues in his arsenal — from health care and prescription drugs to gun safety and voting rights — that will appeal to particular constituencies. Striking in a State of the Union that while he did not name his opponent, he went after Trump again and again. His comments on Gaza reflected the beginning of a pivot. He spoke with real empathy for Palestinian civilians. It was all the more effective because he said, accurately, that there are few politicians who have been more devoted to Israel than he is. But he has long believed in a two-state solution and is clearly at odds with Netanyahu. More to come on that front. I have no idea if he gets a poll bounce out of this speech, but I think he has shifted the arc of the commentary, which is a prelude to a poll bounce. 277Press Enter to expand
Megan McArdleOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:49 p.m. I'm a little more negative. If you tuned in at the beginning or the end, it was very high energy and well-rehearsed. In the middle, it was weaker, with some slurring and bobbles, which will mar what otherwise might have been viral clips and raises the question of how many speeches he can crank out over the next six months. 4Press Enter to expand
Alexi McCammondOpinion editorMar 7, 10:50 p.m. Re: Post-SOTU polling (and this is my parting thought) is that Biden jumped to 47% approval after his last SOTU (from 39%): Gallup reported: 'Trump, in 2018, and Barack Obama, in 2015 and 2016, saw modest two- to four-percentage-point increases in approval after their State of the Union addresses. Historically, however, it has been rare for presidents' approval to rise after their State of the Union speeches.' Trump's polling has been static. Biden can only go up from here. 101Press Enter to expand
Megan McArdleOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:53 p.m. On the other hand everyone else seems to have been watching a different and much more effective speech, so probably I'm wrong. 91Press Enter to expand
Alexandra PetriOpinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:55 p.m. On the 'was this a campaign speech' note, I think any time you say something in the year 2024 like, 'Banning books is bad, and we need to keep having a democracy' people say you are being polarizing and delivering a campaign speech. So I'm glad he at least did so with some gusto. 379Press Enter to expand
E.J. Dionne Jr.Opinion ColumnistMar 7, 10:55 p.m. Thank you Alexi and all my colleagues! Really enjoyed watching with you and exchanging thoughts. Have a great evening. 29Press Enter to expand
Alexi McCammondOpinion editorMar 7, 10:56 p.m. With you on that, Petri 45Press Enter to expand
Alexi McCammondOpinion editorMar 7, 10:57 p.m. Thank you all for your time and smarts, and thanks again to our readers for sticking with us tonight (and always)! We're all better for it. Until next time, folks. 29 Share MORE FROM THE POST Opinion|For Trump's sake, two GOP women go to war against their own sex March 11, 2024 Opinion|What happened to Katie Porter? A lesson for Democrats. March 11, 2024 Opinion|Forget 'polarization.' It's the GOP's radicalization. March 10, 2024 Analysis|Katie Britt's defense of sex-trafficking anecdote compounds its problems March 11, 2024 Trump mocks Biden's stutter again, drawing outrage March 10, 2024