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Geopolitics John Foreman ... Russia against the 'West' Times Radio: Putin has begun to fall for his own deluded propaganda Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security Original article: Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Putin has begun to fall for his own deluded propaganda \| John Foreman 8,000 views 2 hours ago Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security Former UK Defence Attaché Moscow and Kyiv Times Radio 772K subscribers ... 8,000 Views ... 556 likes Putin has begun to fall for his own deluded propaganda \| John Foreman 8,000 views 2 hours ago Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security Former UK Defence Attaché Moscow and Kyiv Times Radio Putin has begun to fall for his own deluded propaganda \| John Foreman Apr 12th 2024 Former UK Defence Attaché Moscow and Kyiv John Foreman joins Frontline to discuss Havana Syndrome, Putin's links to the Russian Orthodox Church and life as a Brit working inside Moscow in the run-up to Putin's full-scale invasion. 📻 Listen to Times Radio - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio 📍 Subscribe to our channel - 8,000 views 2 hours ago / @listentotimesradio 🗞 Subscribe to The Times https://www.thetimes.co.uk/subscribe/... 📲 Get the free Times Radio app https://www.thetimes.co.uk/radio/how-... Explore the podcast 242 episodes Frontline \| The War in Ukraine and Global Security Times Radio Podcasts Transcript Follow along using the transcript. Show transcript Times Radio 772K subscribers Transcript 0:00 when he said there was no history of terrorist attacks in Russia his statements about um the church his 0:07 mission about Ukraine I think will points to should we say somebody becoming convinced of his own PR and I 0:14 think we should be factoring that in as he enters his current term hello and welcome to Frontline for times radio 0:21 with me K chabo and this time we're catching up with the former UK defense attach day to Moscow and ke John Foreman 0:28 CBE a royal Navy veteran he's had military diplomatic appointments in the US with NATO and the EU and served on 0:35 global maritime operations he's now an independent consultant specializing in Russia Ukraine and International 0:42 Security and a mentor to Future defense leaders John Foreman welcome back it's good to see you uh John as Ukraine 0:50 desperately awaits the US 61 billion doll Aid package the UK foreign secretary David Cameron has this week 0:57 made his second visit to the US to try and convince Republicans it's in America's national interest for Putin's 1:03 forces not to make any more advances in Ukraine um how urgent is it for more 1:10 bold unified leadership from the west and how might that look well good uh 1:16 good afternoon Kate good to be back and I think um you focus on leadership I think the problem has been as I think 1:23 you spoke about seven months ago about the lack of leadership in Washington especially as we saw that the 1:29 Ukraine offensive last year was going to fail the the question then was what next 1:35 and here we are seven months later it strikes me that the problems what both leadership are by the administration and 1:42 also political infighting within the Congress at the same time I think on 1:48 Europe there has been realization over the last seven months eight months that Ukraine really matters and that Ukraine 1:55 could lose and you saw increasingly I think Sterner language out France UK Mr 2:01 Cameron in particular trying to make the case why Ukraine matters and why Ukraine needs weapons I mean I think question is 2:08 not just leadership of course it comes down to weapons I as we' seen in Ukraine 2:14 at the moment without weapons Ukraine will lose U that's what the Supreme 2:20 Commander Europe said yesterday he the side that can't shoot back loses that's the that's the rule of war and I think 2:27 we've seen problems with Ukrainian a defenses uh particular which is allowing Russia to pick off the Ukrainian energy 2:34 infrastructure so I think that hopefully that message which Mr Cameron took quite to Mr Trump and into into Washington's 2:41 getting through but I I worry that Ukraine's fate is all being wrapped up in political games ahead of the 2:47 elections because you you last time also you described President Biden as being asleep at the wheel over Ukraine well I 2:53 think I said that to another podcaster I think the risk is the accusation he could be perceived as the sleep of the 2:59 Wom bill and it's very handy for people to blame the Republicans and the far right of the Republican Party particular 3:06 the House of Representatives but actually some of this drift and dithering precedes time when Biden had 3:13 the presidency the Senate and the House of Representatives before the midterm elections and I think you're seeing 3:19 consequences of some of the early decisions taken in 2022 after the 3:24 invasion to try and manage escalation of Russia so there's been a constant delay and giving the weapons Ukraine's needs 3:31 Ukraine asked for fix wi fighters in 2022 they still haven't got them in 2024 3:37 they asked for artillery some Nations gave it it took a long time to get the artillery pieces to Ukraine they've 3:43 asked for air defenses they've asked for tanks and each time there's been a big discussion and it's added delay and 3:50 allowed Russia to rebuild itself after the initial failure their Invasion on the other side of the world while um 3:56 this foreign secretary has been the US the Russian foreign minister Sergey lavro has met Xi Jinping in Beijing 4:03 where they discussed bolstering alliances on security in the Asia Pacific and there will be a visit we 4:09 understand by President Putin um China does seem to be increasingly supporting 4:15 Russia's War efforts helping build artillery shells Rockets Etc is this Alliance genuinely strengthening do you 4:21 think yes I think it is I mean I think it was described previously as a an 4:26 alliance Without Limits a partnership Without Limits I think it's always been a misbalance Alliance Russia is 4:33 desperate for allies having estang itself from the Civilized world and it's 4:38 obviously thrown itself at the buses of China for support for its Invasion its 4:43 economy China is propping up the Russian war machine it's providing oil trade 4:49 tools and also components might say jeuse components for its war machine but 4:54 without ever really stepping into direct Military Support but I think it is a substantial relationship it's 5:00 misbalanced uh Russia fears its decline um but I don't think it's as strong as 5:07 it's portrayed I think for China it's very much a marriage convenience you saw the US Secretary for the 5:13 treasury um m m yelland in Beijing obviously sending messages to China not 5:20 to support Russia directly military action otherwise they could fill the force of us sanctions on the Chinese 5:25 Banks so I think Mr X is balancing wider Chinese national interests with 5:33 some support of Russia I mean they are aligned in quite a lot of ways they're both anti-American they're both quite 5:39 autocratic they're both cynical realists but I don't think it's the sort of true me of Minds that Russia likes to portray 5:45 and if we turn to the situation on the ground in Ukraine you believe that Russia's Focus has been on absorbing 5:51 territory it's taken into Russia proper and taking over the dbass how does this 5:56 fit into the overall strategy do you think yeah I think Putin's overall strategy Remains the Same as it was two 6:03 years ago he wants to subjugate Ukraine he wants to destroy Ukraine statehood he wants to install a public government in 6:09 K that's quite clear now whether he can achieve that in one go I don't know 6:15 probably not given the sort of strength of Ukrainian resistance and support to date I think that's his overall goal so 6:22 I think his immediate priorities are more focused in the dbass he made quite a big message of that during his 6:28 reelection quotequote campaign uh earlier this year to say that um the 6:34 donbass protection quote of people in dbass and the denet was a priority I think you'll seeing that play out 6:40 through the ground on the ground so for example I think he's after the successes 6:46 in abva we saw in February Russian forces continue to grind westwards both 6:52 in abva and a bit further north towards Sloans I think that's his main effort I 6:58 think that's what the arm's focused on but I think doesn't preclude unit State divers or other probing attacks 7:03 Elsewhere on the front which Russia now has the men and material to attack a 7:08 multiple places at once but I think the main efforts in dbass I think secondly I think part of that campaign of bringing 7:16 quote Ukraine to heal unquote we seeing that destruction of the Ukrainian energy 7:22 infrastructure I mean I've been to the place which was bomb last night it's just south of Kio huge 7:28 plant that provides bulk electricity to key the city capital region and around 7:34 it without that and the other plants which have been destroyed by Russia 7:41 things are going to become increasingly difficult and we're only six months away from the next winter winter comes early 7:46 in Ukraine Ukraine has six months to try and solve that problem out otherwise people are going to freeze next year and 7:52 I think it builds into that whole difficulties on the battlefield difficulties in the 7:57 infrastructure difficulties about morale I mean I spoke to people this week who 8:03 are working in Kia from the overall message was one of Gloom you spoke last time about uh Putin's obsession with 8:10 Ukraine and his desire to dismember it reclaim it as Russia um but you are 8:16 clear in your mind that anyone who says NATO is next is wrong given NATO's 8:22 extensive nuclear and conventional capabilities these economic technological and demographic advantages 8:27 how much of this is about starting a narrative to scare the West into avoiding escalation when when people go 8:33 around saying NATO is next it's it's kind of a very good way of persuading 8:39 people not to escalate and to to to come back from the from supplying Ukraine what it's asking for yeah I think it's 8:45 WR been as you know I wrote an article on this for The Spectator a couple of weeks back and it was prompted by a 8:52 lecture given by the chief of defend staff adal Rakin who said Russia would not attack us because 8:59 Russia will lose and NATO will win but I took even further back and I said I didn't think that Russia had the intent 9:06 or the capability to attack nato in the first place in fact Putin said so twice in the last couple of months anybody who 9:13 thinks we're going to attack NATO is his is mad deluded we're not going to do it so I think 9:18 he's he's always said going back years that NATO is not a Target much of the 9:25 sort NATO's next narrative is coming out of people in the West themselves you know you've got ex defense and security 9:33 officials ex diplomats you got people lobbying for greater defense spending you've got people who want greater 9:39 defensive vestment on the Eastern flank of NATO I think there also that sort of tendency 9:45 to believe the Russian threat is is all-encompassing and everywhere so I think have be a bit more focused I saw 9:52 the president of Sweden of Finland sorry president of Finland just said it was highly unlikely that Russia was going to 9:57 attack NATO the head of the US intelligence organization the director National Intelligence she said it was 10:04 almost certain quote unquote that Russia didn't have the intent to ATT NATO that doesn't mean we should be sitting our 10:09 Laurels there is a discussion to be had about how much we spend on defense how much we spend on resilience making our 10:16 infrastructure more resilient to the sort of attacks we're seeing you know in Ukraine and how much we invest in 10:22 credible deterrence both nuclear conventional attack to defend ourselves and to punish any attack 10:30 uh on NATO but at the moment I don't see it I don't think Russia has the intent or capability to go down that path I 10:36 think Putin if he wins in Ukraine will be wholly absorbed wholly focused on 10:43 absorbing Ukraine into Russia proper that's be a massive massive task so what 10:48 kind of threat does Russia pose to the UK and other allies domestically in a 10:53 way which is below the threshold of War yeah sure I mean I think if Convent you know you have 11:00 nuclear which I think will take slightly differently conventional and unconventional threats I think threat against Europe and UK in particular is 11:08 from the unconventional area so the propaganda the relance propaganda 11:13 influence ped pedaling use of social media fake news info operations such as you know 11:21 hacking cyber crime try to to try and degrade um our know key critical 11:28 National INF structure I think there's also building alternative access as a foreign 11:34 policy so the global South Africa and Asia and elsewhere uh but I think lot of 11:40 it is corruption good old corruption corrupting public officials to take 11:47 decisions which not necessary in the UK National interest so I think if the threat is unconventional it's been term 11:54 75 years ago as political Warfare I think political Warfare is the greater threat not a conventional nuclear attack 12:00 of M and what what does President Putin stand gain from that kind of influence 12:06 well I think you if we go back to Putin's goals before The Invasion Ukraine he stated that obviously Ukraine 12:13 was number one he wanted to reabsorb Ukraine into his sphere of influence he 12:19 wants to divide and Rule within Europe he wants to reassert Russia back into because 12:27 serious security actor in Europe at the expense of NATO so he wants to divide NATO he wants to reduce our confidence 12:33 he wants to divide Europe from the US in particular uh not just the removal of US 12:39 nuclear weapons from Europe but also to encourage the drift towards isolationism 12:44 U In America which we're seeing so I think more glob and globally he wants to 12:50 know reassert his great power status in the world as an anti-western pole of opposition to what 12:58 he sees as West and hegemony so he can achieve those things without going to war he can achieve those as you said 13:05 below the threshold of War to she's been doing for 20 years poisonings 13:10 assassinations corrupting and I think that's likely to continue on that note 13:15 um you have written another article which is due out in The Spectator called it's about so-called Havana syndrome 13:22 it's described as a zombie idea can you explain this idea yeah I mean I I mean 13:29 obviously I've was tracking herana syndrome before I went to Moscow I mean out of maky 13:34 self-interest this is the accusation that uh foreign actors have been 13:39 using radio weapons against the heads of us diplomats and making the mill and it 13:46 started in Cuba in 2016 and there's been various reports of attacks up to a 13:52 thousand us diplomats had reported similar sorts of symptoms now what what 13:57 prompted me who write the article was a recent piece in The Insider which is a 14:04 investigative magazine looking at Russia accusing Russia directly of the involvement in these Havana syndrome 14:11 type attacks and the problem you have with that report of course is on the other side the US have spent years and 14:18 years and years investigating these alleged attacks and they haven't found 14:24 any evidence both medical or physical or indeed in their s elligence so you have 14:30 these sort two sides and my idea my point was zombie ideas such 14:37 as Havana syndrome are used by various people for other interests so you have 14:43 the victims themselves who have suffered symptoms they need proper investigation 14:49 my heart's with them whether it's as as the American said it's to do with stress or whether it's to do with underlying 14:55 conditions or so environmental factors the vast majority but these things are used to bash the 15:02 administration or to as part of the sort of General sense of the reds are under the bed that Russia is everywhere where 15:07 they're not it distracts us from where Russia actually is operating below the threshold using the tools we spoke about 15:15 to try and destabilize and divide us so that's my point um I wasn't convinced by 15:22 the argument in the inside the magazine I wasn't convinced that there was enough evidence to stack up this very large 15:29 accusation that the hand of Russia is behind these attacks and the question I asked myself of course is why wasn't I 15:35 targeted and why my colleagues weren't targeted in Russia why go to the difficulty of going to rule Florida to 15:42 attack an FBI agent when there's a whole set of tether goats or guinea pigs ready 15:48 to be attacked in Moscow especially in the leadup to and following the war when 15:54 the relations have gone particularly South and actually lot of the attacks have stopped so I think my another point 16:00 was a lot of think I think you know stress of diplomats may have played a 16:06 part in some or maybe many of the reported attacks and as I say in the 16:12 article I experienced the symptoms associated with the her syndrome myself 16:18 I never attributed it to the hand of the 16:24 Russians I thought I was stressed yeah and so did my friends and I've consulted widely with my my former colleagues and 16:30 serving colleagues they all thought it was a bit ropy to be honest the whole accusation the Russians done they think 16:35 it's just there's other explanations more credible than the gru mil 16:41 intelligence running around with a super weapon so do you think that is the explanation then that it is just I mean 16:47 there is something unusual about it even if that is the explanation yeah I think that's right I mean I think something 16:53 fishy as an American friend of mine put it who's a serving Diplomat American Diplomat there's something something up 16:59 it's fishy but the problem is you know once somebody reports it somewhere if 17:04 you're told to be hypervigilant for such an attack I can see in the pressure 17:11 cooker atmosphere where we serve and served that the things could start to 17:16 get light of their own so yes I think America the Americans have said they've investigated it for five 17:21 years they've left the door open for further investigations especially if a weapon can be shown or indeed there's a 17:28 medical um Clear Medical evidence link to the syndrome at the moment I'm pretty 17:34 agnostic of course even they you know that's s skeptical about the whole thing 17:39 so when you were serving in Moscow then uh presumably from what you say this is not something that people warned you 17:45 about said you had to watch out for but there would have been other security considerations you had to take yeah I 17:52 mean I think um Havana 17:57 Beijing ter Iran Moscow are extremely high threat environments you know we' 18:02 warned about that beforehand we live in this pressure cooker sort of um EnV 18:08 environment with your colleagues um the Russians make our in my case the 18:13 Russians make our lives very difficult done daily basis know cessant 18:19 surveillance and they do that to put more pressure on us to Cloud our judgment and to make us less less 18:25 effective and then of course you've got the other factors of after San you can't get home easily you can't travel they 18:32 put travel restrictions on they follow you around they to try and build that sense of isolation and and difficulty um 18:40 but I thought sometimes sorry that surveillance ticks over into harassment direct harassment by the Russians 18:47 against us um I think it's just part of the PA of the course I think most people 18:53 who go into these posts have a open eyed they going open eyed they don't go in 18:59 expecting it all to be like Paris and suddenly find it's not like Paris it's a very different world and you know I 19:07 think support um of each other family support give some time off maintaining a sense 19:14 of the spe was important but again the Russians have always been hostile to us 19:19 it's always been a difficult post going back over 100 years so it's not a surprised that diplomats continue to 19:27 report interference and and harassment and surveillance today so regardless of 19:33 of what you think of this article uh on Havana syndrome what it did do was it sort of pointed the finger at the 19:40 Russian military intelligence unit at 29155 um whatever the truth um can you 19:48 tell me a bit about the unit and how aware you were of their activities when you were in Moscow well also I arrived 19:55 in Moscow in 2019 and the um that unit had been 20:01 fingered for the poor poisons at Solsbury in 2018 which had caused his bassive rupture in 20:07 our diplomatic relations and then there was reports of this unit perhaps 20:13 offering Bounties in Afghanistan when Allied troops are still serving Afghanistan and subsequently involved in 20:21 sabotage and the other the ferious activities in Europe especially in 20:27 Bulgaria and perhaps poison assassination so this this unit for as I understand it was seen as 20:34 the Putin's highrisk High reward highly trained set of Assassins 20:40 going off to do Putin's bidding to achieve political goals now I think the motives of that 20:48 unit tend to be fairly praic they tend to be poisoning 20:54 shootings bombs they don't tend to be super cyber weapons but I think they are 20:59 um I think they regard themselves at the tip of the spear and I think Putin over the last few years has lost patience 21:07 with some parts of his Security Services and that space the guu stepped up and say yes we can do these things I mean 21:15 having said that they weren't particularly effective in the runup to the war in Ukraine I expected much more sort of unit 29155 type activities in 21:24 Ukraine before The Invasion that didn't happen now why was that is that because they 21:29 couldn't operate there because the ukrainians were better or they weren't quite as good as they dressed up to be 21:35 again I Phils it's nice to have a unit with a number which we can relate all these sort of 21:42 Nefarious consequences should we say and say it's always them they always point the finger I don't think they're as good 21:49 as they make themselves out to be that's good to know um you were right to wonder last time how long the imprisoned 21:54 opposition leader Alexa naal would survive and it's now the second anniversary of the imprisonment of his 22:01 friend fellow Kremlin critic Vladimir karuza can the obliteration of descent 22:08 continued to be effective in keeping Putin in power yeah I mean I I can't remember exactly what I said last time 22:14 but I thought you know Putin banged up novaldi in some hideous siberian 22:21 prison and his longevity wasn't um you know guaranteed because whether he was 22:27 going to kill him or whether he's going to L him Dr to death um his his prospects W great I think the same is 22:34 for unfortunately for Mr kurar and IL Yashin and um ol all of other political 22:41 prisoners who are you know imprisoned at the and the moment whose numbers are the greatest they've been for a couple of 22:48 generations I think um stamping down of internal descend has been pretty effective actually in the last you know 22:55 two years since the invasion Putin had to turn inwards against the Enemy Within 23:00 as much as he had to turn outwards towards his perceived Enemy enemy in Ukraine um I think and others have 23:08 noticed it Fact one of the political prisoners said that Russia's descended to full tyranny dictatorship in the last 23:15 two years has even got worse since you and I last spoke last summer so I think 23:21 he can continue to keep suppression on that we saw the elections were rigged we 23:28 saw the numbers of votes were lously high whatever it was 8 84 23:33 85% he has a very large security machine which continue to stamp down the um 23:39 opposition has been prely um I don't use that word 23:44 decited the opposition's been completely demoralized and divided and sent into Exile or imprisoned there is no 23:51 opposition are is there are no alternative sources of information inside Russia Russia is doing more and 23:56 more and the kreman to clamp down on the internet and distribution of ideas there 24:02 purgings going on um they're going after LGBT any other minorities including 24:08 religious minorities to prop up the regime so unfortunately I think the 24:13 trajectories still further downwards and on to complement that there's a 24:18 extraordinary piece of news in the times this week that President Putin is now portraying himself a bit like Jesus 24:24 Christ he's explaining his Divine Mission schooling Russia's youth in Tradition values against the satanic 24:31 West this was as he um he celebrated the opening of of new youth centers across 24:36 the country um how is he using religion to prop up his regime and mold the 24:42 future Generations well I firstly I don't think Mr Putin is particularly 24:47 religious I mean he never had a great history of of the religious belief but 24:53 it's been used as a sort of tactic to and cynical tactic to buy support from 24:59 the population 70% of whom say they are Russian Orthodox so he pronounces himself he 25:07 portrays SE he's portrayed more in church you know as a a p piety he lights candles um he makes 25:16 statements like you know quaza religious statements as you mentioned but I don't think he's living a particularly 25:22 Christian Life in either his behavior or in his heart if you I read thing the Archbishop can 25:29 wrote about after visiting Ukraine about Christian values of love and mercy and Grace the care for suffering the care 25:37 for little children and and the Wish For Peace none of which Putin's observing but I think he's using religion as 25:45 another weapon to bind the population to him two years um three years ago they 25:51 published National Security strategy and in there was lots of talk about Traditional Values including Orthodoxy 25:59 and he uses the Russian Orthodox Church as his agent to spread the message of 26:04 holy Russia Russia under attack in return for their support 26:10 So Orthodoxy is part of his Messianic mission to make make Russia Great again 26:17 through sort of muscular Christianity betraying Russia and in himself as good and betraying ourselves as evil and you 26:24 saw that that statement the Russian Orthodox Church adopted in that light then do you see this as as a cynical 26:32 propaganda maneu maneuver by the Russian president rather than a sign that he's becoming delusional well I mean we 26:38 always have this great discussion about what you know how how rational Mr Putin is and he has been making some pretty 26:43 strange statements since his re-election both on Election night when his face 26:49 looked I was thought a bit peculiar he's obviously become a bit convinced of his 26:55 own um his own um he's he's become convinced sorry of his 27:03 own um Mission his own destiny that he's a man of destiny that 27:08 he Vladimir the Great and so I think that statement statements about after 27:14 the wake of the terrorist attacks in the krocus hall when he said there was no 27:20 history of terrorist attacks in Russia his statements about um the church his 27:26 mission about Ukraine I think will points to should we save somebody becoming convinced of his own PR and I 27:32 think we should be factoring that in as he enters his current term just to to 27:38 talk briefly about um the way Ukraine is fighting the war right now and it is increasingly taking the war to Russia 27:45 with its longrange attacks on oil refineries and Military facilities supporting Russia's air campaign the 27:51 attacks on oil refining refineries causing a fuel crisis while ammunition and artillery shortages hamper Ukraine 27:58 ability to go on the offensive along the front lines how effective is this yes I think obviously R both Russia and 28:05 Ukraine have been attacking attacking so-called strategic targets so as you 28:11 said Russia's been attacking vill industrial complex Commander control air defense uh energy sites and Ukraine has 28:19 been trying to strik targets behind the front line to gain Advantage now it lacks the tools to 28:27 do that because of city of weapons and the unwillingness of Germany to provide similar weapons to Ukraine and it's 28:34 problem with the Americans so it's using its drones against these refineries I think personally I think it's a very clever 28:40 strategy um targets key vulnerability in the Russian system that Russia produces 28:47 a huge amount of crude oil exports a lot for to other countries including China 28:52 and it keeps some back to refine for products from like unleaded and Diesel and lubricant and aviation fuel all the 28:59 things we use oil for and those refiners have a single point of failure which is the refining Tower so Ukrainian strikes 29:08 have both increased the prices and reduced the supply of those products over the last couple of weeks and I 29:15 think they're a legitimate military Target those products support directly Putin's War 29:21 Machine the UK and us have targeted those similar facilities in the second 29:26 world war and the first Gulf War the kovo campaign in the second GF War these 29:31 are known contributors these facilities contributors to mobility and sustainment 29:37 on the battlefield the problem I worry about is that Ukraine doesn't have the 29:43 capability to repeatedly hit them so we normally in their campaign it's not just 29:49 one hit it's second third fourth to make sure the things are knocked out and stop the Russians from rebuilding them so I 29:54 think the Russians have got problems rebuilding them anyway because lack of access to technology use sanctions but we'll have to see how it plays 30:01 through on the battlefield Russia's got alternative supplies from bellarus and could import products from members of 30:07 its AIS and um as Ukraine um constantly tries to find new ways to uh keep the 30:14 pressure up on Russia as it waits for those vital supplies of artillery and ammunition um the UK has just signed 30:21 this framework agreement to cooperate in the defense and arms production Center to help inside Ukraine itself BAE 30:27 Systems would instance conduct maintenance repair and overall light guns on the ground in Ukraine and there 30:33 have been many drone uh producers present at this conference time though is of the E Essence um in spite of this 30:40 uh partnership can can it make a difference or is this for longer term I think it's the longer term I mean I read 30:46 the speech of General Cavalier the Su commander of Europe yesterday he said at 30:51 at present Ukraine cannot produce the weapons it needs to defend itself it has to rely on foreign Supply 30:59 now Germany UK France America and and private business themselves have put in 31:05 arrangements to do more of the production and maintenance and support 31:11 inside Ukraine itself but that's going to take a number of years to play through so there's a gap between now 31:18 where Ukraine's on the back foot being bombed heavily and being ground back on the dbass and the supply coming on and I 31:25 think that's where the US support 61 billion is absolutely 31:31 critical without those weapons I think Ukraine's 31:36 chances of Victory are zero and I think there's 31:43 a good chance that Putin will can smell Victory given those delays and dithering 31:48 in Congress now 2024 is a critical year for 31:53 all in this war if we don't support Ukraine this year Ukraine may not be surviving till 2025 you mentioned um in 32:01 an interview elsewhere that the kind of appeasement of Putin we've seen by the W would not have happened under Reagan or 32:08 Kennedy certainly not under Churchill I'm sure but what when you look at the desperate situation today that Ukraine 32:15 finds itself in formul it's often getting it too late uh it's but it's hanging on and there are rumors of 32:21 trying to push Ukraine into a negotiated peace settlement where and what gives you the most optimism at the moment 32:28 there's a lot of Gloom about it I think the optimism I would take is you know the spirit and will of the Ukrainian people to defend 32:36 themselves defend their their own values their democracy their country have you've seen um not withstanding the 32:44 difficulty in the battlefield Ukrainian troops are providing stirring 32:49 defenses um and I think the public and the Ukrainian people behind them so I'm 32:54 optimistic about that I'm not optimistic about the position in the US but things could 33:00 change I mean I think war is a sort series of eps and flows we've had some pretty Grim times 33:06 in the past in our own Wars which U turned out for the better in the long 33:12 longer term but I think 2024 being so 33:17 important um in the summer if the Russians if the ukrainians have stop the Russians from advancing if some of these 33:24 weapons come on line either from America or from elsewhere where if Putin's forces themselves suffer continued 33:32 attrition both of Med and material and grind to a hall like could be had to claim some degree of optimism but I 33:38 think at the moment I'm more half empty c glass of water are now full 33:45 unfortunately you left Moscow seven months after Russia launched its fullscale Invasion can you just tell me 33:50 a bit about what it was like living in Moscow at that time and then also what it was what you said when you handed 33:56 over to your replac I mean obviously I think last time we spoke about the run up to to the war and 34:02 visit of Ben Wallace and just just the incredible pressure we're under and then 34:08 you know it changed from before the what's going to happen John when's it going to happen to why is it happening 34:13 what's happened next um and certainly I felt myself in that s February March April time just 34:21 you know unbelievable levels of personal pressure I've see my friends in Ukraine being bombed you know these people 34:28 evacuated the thought that Russia might commit hideous war crimes in Ukraine 34:34 then the evidence coming through a piece of La buta where you could see what Russians been up 34:40 to and then there's some more know I spent proba the next few months 34:45 reporting and trying to give balance and objective input into White Hall both on terms of know 34:51 what's going on and also in terms of policy for the future but so I handed over after almost three years and I 34:59 think I said to him in our brief Handover that's I say to most tachet 35:05 is you're not there to go become a supporter for your nation you need to 35:10 stay objective and strategic that's what people read if you want ministers to read your reporting stay at the 35:16 ministerial level know your audience back in London there's no pointing to fighting stuff which gets lost so that's 35:23 one is you know know who you're talking to what they want to know I think secondly you're the only person on the 35:30 ground from the ministry of Defense now people read an awful lot of stuff online 35:35 I get confronted with it it sent to me and say John what do you think about this and I dampen down expectations 35:41 you're the only one who knows what people look like or they will talk to you about what they smell like you know what it feels like on the Metro and the 35:48 bus what's the mood and I think that's where you provide value above perhaps R 35:53 all things onlineer on Twitter um I said to him to stay close to our FCO colleagues there's no time 36:01 for this sort of traditional FCO mod headbanging we leave all that to London 36:06 know very small team no Department rivalry yeah so I didn't want any of that to play through and obviously 36:13 staying close to the Ambassador and I also said you know to travel if you could to get out of Moscow because 36:20 Moscow is not Russia people will talk to you if you go outside and as you find out their mood and what they think about 36:26 the situation and you can put build that into reporting and ultimately don't let the BLS grind you down because as we 36:32 said that's what they want you to do um but as I said before you know I read A 36:38 Memoir of an natache in Russia before the first world war and they had exactly 36:43 the same problems that I experiened so it's never been a particularly easy posting and it never will be John 36:49 Foreman it's been great talking to you thank you very much for your time you've been watching Frontline for times radio 36:55 with Me Kate jbo if you'd like to support you can subscribe now or listen to times radio or go to the times.co.uk 37:02 my thanks to our producer today Morgan berdick and to you for watching bye for now Your taxes, your way Sponsored turbotax.intuit.com File now 183 Comments

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