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MILITARY GENERAL MARK MILLEY IN CONVERSATION Axios: Conversation with Mike Allen and General Mark Milley PLAY YOUTUBE VIDEO Original article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDfGL-jt7N8 Peter Burgess COMMENTARY Peter Burgess
Conversation with Mike Allen and General Mark Milley Axios 39.1K subscribers ... 18,313 views ... 397 likes Jul 15, 2024 Axios co-founder Mike Allen and former chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Gen. Mark Milley talk about the changing character of war and the impact of the latest emerging technologies on the global defense landscape at Axios' Future of Defense newsletter launch event. Transcript 0:00 introducing to the stage axio co-founder Mike Allen [Applause] morning good morning I'm axio co-founder Mike Allen welcome to the debut event for axio future of Defense we so appreciate your coming thank you for coming for on a tough morning uh in DC uh we're very excited about this event this is a line of coverage that my co-founders Jim vahi or axio CEO and Roy Schwarz have been thinking about for a long time and we found the perfect reporter Colin demerest who you'll meet in a bit right down front uh who's been 0:39 covering defense back uh to his days as 0:41 a pup in at the aen South Carolina 0:44 standard uh part of the Charleston uh 0:46 paper and as Jim and I were talking 0:48 about people who might carry the torch 0:51 for future of Defense we were so happy 0:53 to be able to uh grab colins so the 0:56 future of Defense uh newsletter uh debut 0:58 dropped yesterday it'll be in your inbox 1:01 every Wednesday morning right um and so 1:05 just head over to axios.com 1:07 newsletters and you can get the future 1:09 of Defense uh we'd like to thank uh ge 1:12 Aerospace for making today's event 1:14 possible and the incredible axios events 1:17 team so they had a double header they 1:19 had an event last night and uh this team 1:23 is amazing and including Sarah kale 1:25 hingu and the editorial events team uh 1:28 I've been honored to do events around 1:30 the world with this team they're always 1:32 Flawless so uh appreciate them and 1:36 appreciate you our first guest was the 1:39 20th chairman of the Joint Chiefs of 1:42 Staff which is the nation's highest 1:43 ranking military officer principal 1:46 adviser to the president the Secretary 1:48 of Defense uh the National Security 1:51 adviser he was Army Roc at Princeton 1:54 Massachusetts native still likes Boston 1:57 guys has masters from Colombia the US 1:59 Navy War College uh educated at also 2:03 trained at MIT 24 moves he and his wife 2:07 did around the world including Korea 2:09 when he was in the Army next year he 2:12 will celebrate 40 years with his wife 2:15 welcome to the axio stage General Mark 2:18 Millie General 2:23 Millie General Milly love your walk- on 2:26 music very nice it's all very good uh 2:29 welcome checked that newsletter I just 2:30 want to make sure it's free the you 2:33 you've got an ironed uh golden copy on 2:35 your doorstep has great uh General 2:38 Millie what is the best part of being a 2:41 civilian now that you are free sleep 2:44 absolutely sleep um so no I I I think in 2:48 my case we've got four grandchildren so 2:51 uh time management the opportunity to 2:53 spend some additional family time I 2:55 think is probably the number one best 2:58 advantage of being retired and after 3:00 being the uh highest ranking military 3:03 officer what do you miss most about 3:05 having people kiss your 3:07 ass well I wouldn't have put it that way 3:10 Mike uh I don't think anyone ever did 3:12 that actually to tell you the truth uh I 3:14 think that what you have is a bunch of 3:16 real professionals that are willing to 3:18 speak truth to power and give you good 3:19 analysis so I wouldn't have 3:21 characterized it the way you did but 3:22 thank you for doing that um now the part 3:25 that uh you miss is the camaraderie and 3:27 the uh and the and the and the folks 3:29 that you with are great people and and 3:31 that's probably the best part so General 3:34 Millie you're a big part of why axios is 3:38 uh investing in future of Defense 3:40 coverage so you and I and Jim vahi sat 3:42 down together and this is an area that 3:46 you have been passionate about going 3:47 about going back at least 15 years and 3:50 we walked out of that breakfast and we 3:52 said like the world is changing uh this 3:54 is going to be important part of axios 3:56 coverage General you've told me we're on 3:58 the brink of the the most fundamental 4:01 change in human history tell us what it 4:05 is well most fundamental change in human 4:07 history in the in what I call the 4:09 character of War uh so you have to 4:11 distinguish between the nature of War 4:13 and the character of war the nature of 4:15 war is what uh cluso talks about right 4:17 so uh it's a human activity it's a it's 4:20 an act of politics uh where one side's 4:22 trying to impose its uh political will 4:24 on the other side by the use of 4:26 organized violence um it involves fear 4:29 and friction uh you're looking at a 4:32 certain Dynamic uh between the people 4:35 the government uh and it's and its 4:38 military so that's the nature of war and 4:40 that's probably immutable uh at least 4:42 most people think human emotions are 4:44 human emotions yeah so that's going to 4:45 that's going to uh that's unlikely to 4:48 change right but the character of War uh 4:51 what you're talking about there uh are 4:53 the tactics the doctrines the 4:55 Technologies the weapon systems uh the 4:57 leader training uh 5:00 it's all of that it's the ways and means 5:01 of warfare right um so that changes 5:04 frequently so every time you get a new 5:06 technology that changes um and 5:08 historically it's changed many times 5:10 over over over the years uh but 5:13 fundamental Chang has only occurred once 5:15 in a while and and and just uh to button 5:18 that up a general an example you gave me 5:20 of that is something as simple as 5:21 putting a bit in a horse's mouth yeah 5:24 that's right so so if you think 5:27 historically uh and you go way back in 5:29 time think about whenever somebody 5:32 figured out how to put a bit in a 5:33 horse's mouth and saddle a horse you had 5:35 the development of Calvary when you went 5:37 from a smooth warar musket to a rifle 5:40 that fundamentally changed infantry 5:42 tactics on a battlefield when you 5:43 introduced mechanization and wheel and 5:46 track vehicles the airplane wireless 5:48 communication the radio rifling versus 5:50 smooth boore right rifle smooth boore or 5:53 the mechanization the 1920s and 30s 5:55 these things changed the tactics the 5:57 doctrines the organizations of the time 5:59 and they fundamentally changeed the 6:01 character of war and and that can be a 6:04 big big huge thing so the 1920s and 30s 6:07 for example uh with the introduction of 6:09 tanks and and and and and wheeled 6:12 vehicles uh the airplane uh radio 6:14 communications to connect these two 6:16 things you have the development of 6:17 combined arms Warfare and and one 6:19 country Nazi Germany developed them uh 6:22 in a very sophisticated way uh and they 6:24 developed an organization the pan of 6:25 Grenadier divisions to uh implement this 6:28 this Doctrine which we today call The 6:30 Blitz cre which the Germans didn't call 6:32 that Blitz creig back in the day they 6:34 matched it to a German way of war and 6:36 that allow allowed them or enabled them 6:38 to overrun most of Europe in in 18 6:40 months you know 30 miles from Moscow 6:42 they went went into France the low 6:44 countries Norway uh the Balkans Greece 6:47 uh and so on uh and they did that very 6:49 effectively very quickly uh and very 6:51 violently so that the change in the 6:52 character of War can have enormous uh 6:55 not only tactical and operational 6:56 consequences but strategic consequences 6:58 uh we today 7:00 in my view are in the most fundamental 7:03 change with the introduction of 7:05 precision Munitions the introduction of 7:06 UIC sensors around the world uh every 7:10 single iPhone out there GPS watch Fitbit 7:13 thing all of those are sensors so the 7:15 ability to see and the ability to hit at 7:17 range with long range Precision fires 7:19 and now increasing speed with hypersonic 7:21 Munitions and then when you look at the 7:23 ability uh to sustain with 3D printing 7:27 uh you look at alternative fuels you 7:28 look at all all this kind kind of stuff 7:29 for sustainment uh but your your big 7:32 ones your two big ones that are are are 7:34 emerging very very rapidly is the 7:36 introduction of robots uh which we've 7:39 been using for quite some time with 7:41 unmanned aial Vehicles drones as as they 7:43 say uh but then combine them combine 7:46 robots which will expand Beyond drones 7:49 to a pilotless Air Force a sailor Navy a 7:52 crewless tank which is coming uh you 7:54 know in the next 10 15 years sort of 7:56 thing combine that with the enormous 7:58 power of Quantum Computing and 8:01 artificial intelligence and you've got 8:03 some real significant fundamental 8:07 changes and all those Technologies are 8:09 available to uh China Russia the United 8:12 States and and many many other countries 8:15 so the country that optimizes those 8:17 Technologies for military use is going 8:20 to have a very significant and 8:21 potentially decisive Advantage uh in an 8:23 armed conflict yeah General the phrase 8:25 that you just used really sticks with 8:28 the when you said the ability to see and 8:31 strike with Precision at range like 8:33 that's such a great way to say it and 8:35 sticks in my mind now you've said AI is 8:38 the mother of all Technologies right 8:40 yeah I mean so you know the the full 8:44 potential of AI is still theoretical 8:46 it's not here yet uh but we're seeing it 8:49 in the commercial sector uh very rapidly 8:52 uh develop so the and and like all 8:55 Technologies Technologies don't have 8:57 morality right so Technologies can be 8:59 either good or bad depending on how 9:01 they're employed and used so uh so with 9:04 artificial intelligence it's entirely 9:06 possible to ingest all knowledge about 9:09 medicine that's ever been produced in 9:11 all of human history uh and for the AI 9:14 to assist say a doctor to diagnose 9:18 patients and it's entirely possible with 9:20 the help of AI that you could have you 9:23 know you could solve uh cancer or 9:26 Dementia or Parkinson's or what whatever 9:29 disease it is out there uh and you can 9:32 make some really significant radical 9:33 advances in medicine so that's to the 9:35 good uh but but there's also the 9:38 potential for artificial intelligence to 9:40 be paired with lethal Munitions or or 9:43 robots uh and then you've got a real 9:46 significant ethical and moral issue on 9:47 your hands uh with the potential for 9:50 that to be used in a bad way right uh 9:53 but artificial intelligence what it 9:54 really will do in terms of the military 9:57 it's going to assist command 10:00 uh to rapidly and more effectively go 10:03 through the decision-making cycle by 10:05 ingesting massive amounts of information 10:08 at rates of speed and and size and scale 10:10 and scope that no human being could 10:12 possibly match uh and they'll ability to 10:15 make go through the observe Orient 10:17 direct and act Loop faster relative to 10:20 your enemy and the side that optimizes 10:22 artificial intelligence for military use 10:25 potentially uh because decision- making 10:27 is so important in the conduct of 10:28 military oper operations potentially 10:30 could have a very very significant 10:31 advantage in the conduct of War so it's 10:33 a huge huge advantage in general I know 10:36 you're very concerned about cyber 10:38 misinfo disinfo sure yeah yeah so uh you 10:42 know the the year a few years ago uh the 10:46 US Military and I think most militaries 10:47 today have expanded their their domains 10:50 of War so the traditional domains were 10:54 land and then someone figured out how to 10:55 sail a boat so it became land and sea 10:58 and then we figured out how to fly 10:59 airplanes land C and air and then you 11:01 know a couple decades ago uh with the 11:04 development of the 11:05 internet um you expanded into cyberspace 11:08 and space physical space uh of course 11:11 with with the space programs of the of 11:13 the 1950s and 60s and so on uh so today 11:17 uh the US military looks at and I think 11:19 most militaries look at the domains of 11:21 warfare uh as land sea air space and 11:25 cyberspace and I would probably even add 11:28 uh subsurface or sub Sea underwater um 11:31 and and with cyber cyber is you know 11:35 it's been around for a while you know if 11:37 you think about artificial intelligence 11:38 for example your very first use or even 11:41 the name I think comes out of the 1950s 11:44 uh but it's really coming into its own 11:46 now and it's accelerating to the point 11:48 where uh you're you're you're really 11:50 getting a ubiquitous use of that 11:53 technology over the next 10 to 15 years 11:56 cyber similarly has been around for a 11:58 while in internet daret all that it's 12:00 been around for a bit but now it's it's 12:03 ubiquitous it's in everybody's lives on 12:05 a day-to-day basis uh so you will see 12:08 cyber as being a really critical 12:12 domain uh of future armed conflict to 12:15 the point where Advanced nation states 12:19 potentially could borrow into your 12:22 infrastructure systems your electronic 12:24 systems your financial systems uh your 12:26 food supply your water supply Etc with 12:28 cyber tools and that could be very 12:30 disruptive it won't necessarily be 12:32 totally destructive uh it may or may not 12:36 destroy parts of a system uh destroying 12:39 the entire system is actually more 12:40 difficult than people may think but it 12:42 will definitely be very deceptive and 12:44 and that will be a a major component of 12:46 any future armed conflict General you 12:48 look 10 to 15 years down range you have 12:51 an eye-opening prediction about the 12:54 person power of the US military well I 12:57 think the US military today 12:59 uh is Far and Away still the most 13:02 powerful capable lethal ready force of 13:05 any military in the world that's not to 13:07 say that the US military doesn't have 13:08 challenges it has problems all that's 13:10 all true that's true of any large 13:12 organization but taken as a whole 13:14 relative to other militaries uh the US 13:17 military today is is extraordinary um 13:19 and 10 to 15 years down the road now 13:22 what the US military is going to need to 13:23 do and and we've identified this inside 13:25 the military uh we're going to have to 13:27 shift gears here we're going to have to 13:29 to recognize this change in the 13:30 character of war and we're going to have 13:31 to develop uh these systems and these 13:34 organizations at a pace more rapper than 13:37 your potential adversaries Russia China 13:39 for example uh in order to optimize 13:41 these capabilities for military use um 13:43 and if we don't do that we'll be 13:45 entering into an era of this change in 13:48 the character of War uh with Legacy 13:50 systems that were built for an 13:52 industrial age when we're in fact in an 13:55 information and even postinformation age 13:57 we're in a digital age uh so we've we 13:59 got to we've got to create organization 14:01 systems tactics Doctrine train leaders 14:03 recruit troops etc for this different 14:06 era now you're not going 14:08 to automatically eliminate things from 14:11 from the past so there's still going to 14:13 be tanks there's still going to be ships 14:15 still going to be aircraft carriers 14:16 still going to be manned aircraft in the 14:18 future but we're talking about the the 14:20 uh the balance the the the uh 14:22 percentages of these things in the 14:24 military force so I would say that say 14:27 10 15 years from now 14:29 my guess is a third maybe 25% to a third 14:34 of the US military will be robotic and 14:37 will be uh and this is L CNA 14:40 capabilities um and they'll be largely 14:43 commanded and controlled and driven by 14:44 AI enabled systems and will this be 14:47 additive or you think onethird of 14:49 today's Personnel will be replaced by 14:51 robots that's hard to say in terms of 14:53 the actual numbers of people sort of 14:55 thing but it's going to be a notable 14:58 swath I think yeah it'll be a big change 15:01 it'll be a fundamental change um and I 15:03 would I would argue that other nations 15:05 militaries are going to be similarly 15:07 designed um but I think you'll see the 15:10 numbers of human troops right those will 15:13 probably be reduced As you move towards 15:16 robotic systems so like right now uh for 15:19 example in the Middle East uh Central 15:22 command's experimenting with with 15:24 robotic Naval forces surface and 15:26 subsurface uh the Air Force EXP 15:28 experimenting with all kinds of uh 15:30 unmanned uh fighter bomber uh type 15:33 aircraft not just the the unmanned 15:35 aerial vehicles that you see uh the Army 15:38 and Marines are experimenting with uh 15:40 unmanned tanks and smaller vehicles uh 15:43 that that uh you know can be used on in 15:46 ground combat uh but but this is not yet 15:49 here uh in the scale and scope but it 15:52 will be in 10 15 years or so Lisa is 15:56 about to give me the hook but before 15:57 General I ask you uh my last question 16:00 Colin Demmer has a question just as a 16:02 check uh uh on me just uh any news that 16:05 we're making here so thank you Mike and 16:08 thank you General am I on there we thank 16:11 you Mike and thank you General you 16:12 mentioned 25 to 30% of the military 16:14 becoming robotic autonomous I think that 16:17 begs the question should the human 16:19 always stay in the loop always be in 16:21 charge when it comes time to pull the 16:22 trigger or kill and then how do you 16:24 balance machine speed that might be 16:27 needed with human ethics 16:29 um great great question um and current 16:32 US policy is that the human must stay in 16:35 the loop for decision-making on the use 16:38 of lethal Munitions uh now robotics can 16:42 apply to non-lethal things like 16:44 Logistics and convoys and supplies and 16:47 so on uh but for for for lethal use US 16:50 policy is currently the hum in the loop 16:54 um and the the reason for that again 16:57 Technologies don't have morality right 16:59 they don't have uh at least today's 17:01 Technologies don't have morality uh so 17:04 the thought is that humans have some 17:06 sort of moral or ethical uh methodology 17:10 of decision-making so the human is in a 17:11 loop um and and I would say that 17:14 robotics in combination with AI and 17:17 other Technologies uh that the question 17:19 you ask is going to have to be debated 17:20 and determined uh in the years to come 17:23 in a very very serious way because 17:25 there's very significant legal and 17:27 ethical implications 17:29 especially in the use of lethal 17:30 Munitions when you start talking 17:32 Robotics and machines and uh you you can 17:35 imagine a future from a from a technical 17:37 standpoint a machine with enabled by AI 17:41 a robot enabled by AI could make its own 17:43 decisions right um is that something 17:46 that the world wants is that something 17:47 the world's ready for uh have we 17:49 designed the regimes and the rule sets 17:52 uh for that kind of uh employment to 17:55 force clearly not yet it's an open 17:57 question I lean towards human in the 17:59 loop that's current US policy but I 18:02 think this is going to be something that 18:03 people going to have to come to grips 18:04 with here in the next decade or so good 18:07 good question thank you and my did you 18:09 have something else no you're good great 18:11 close it up uh my uh last thing before 18:13 he just said you're good I'll take 18:15 it I'll take it uh uh my last question 18:19 before one uh fun thing uh so General 18:21 you're teaching it both Georgetown and 18:23 Princeton you s really enjoyed that like 18:25 made you optimistic as you talked to uh 18:28 the students you don't do domestic 18:29 politics but everywhere you go you're 18:31 asked about uh the geopolitical uh 18:34 situation and so as we look ahead to 18:36 20125 what do you think will be the 18:38 biggest difference in overseas policy 18:41 between a second Biden Administration 18:43 versus a second Trump Administration 18:46 well thanks Mike for a great opportunity 18:48 to make no comment 18:50 um 18:52 so 18:54 um got to love it and I volunteered to 18:57 come here so um 19:00 uh you know we're in an election season 19:02 obviously a very intense and highly 19:03 political season it would be very 19:05 inappropriate for me to comment on 19:07 either candidate um but look at you you 19:11 from an overseas perspective from a 19:13 national security perspective uh and 19:15 from a policy perspective not from an 19:17 individual candidate perspective you've 19:19 got two versions of America's role in 19:23 the world that play here and the 19:24 American people are going to have to 19:26 decide uh which version of America's 19:29 role in the world you want so with one 19:31 candidate you've got more or less a um 19:35 what what I think foreign policy analyst 19:37 might term as a a wilsonian foreign 19:40 policy that dates back perhaps uh to the 19:43 days of wood Will's 100 years or so 19:45 where the United States enters World War 19:47 I and fights in World War II and then 19:49 since the end of World War II the United 19:52 States has underwritten the so-called 19:54 rules-based International order that was 19:56 put in place at the end of the war in 19:58 order to prevent uh a great power War uh 20:01 it emphasized free trade it emphasized 20:03 collective security a network of allies 20:06 and partners around the world very 20:08 bipartisan uh where debates stopped at 20:10 the The Waters Edge kind of thing so 20:12 that's one version one view where the 20:15 United States is forward deployed very 20:17 engaged in the world uh and and it's in 20:20 some ways it's a values-based foreign 20:22 policy which comes under criticism a lot 20:25 U but but that's one version a second 20:28 version 20:29 uh dates back it's another strand of 20:31 American History uh dates back a little 20:33 bit further back into the 20:35 1800s it's a populist nationalist 20:38 version uh and it comes out of things 20:40 like Jackson and Williams Jenning Bryan 20:43 you've seen it manifest itself with uh 20:45 you know George Wallace you've seen it 20:47 manifest itself throughout American 20:49 history uh you know throughout our 20:51 entire history going back and it's more 20:53 internally focused it's it's more of a 20:56 withdrawal from the world not not not a 20:58 complete withdrawal it's not 21:00 isolationism uh but it's a it's a it's a 21:03 it leans towards bringing forces home 21:05 and not being so engaged overseas um it 21:08 it leans towards a transactional 21:10 economic approach sort of thing um and 21:14 it leads towards protectionism uh where 21:17 you'll see things like uh you know the 21:19 smooth Holly tariffs of the 1930s or or 21:22 the 1828 tariffs those sort of things um 21:25 it it's not necessarily uh about free 21:27 trade as much as it is is protectionism 21:30 um so there's two variants of this both 21:32 of whom have manifested itself in 21:34 American history very strongly at 21:36 various times like almost like a scurve 21:38 back and forth uh and they're both 21:40 legitimate views for the American people 21:41 to choose from so uh it's whatever the 21:44 American people want when they when they 21:46 go to the polls but that's kind of 21:47 what's at play from a national security 21:49 policy uh perspective staying out of the 21:51 individual personalities of candidates 21:53 but those are two big streams and the 21:57 big question is what do you want uh as 22:00 America's role in the world uh very 22:03 fascinating uh super quick one for the 22:05 road General you're just back from the 22:07 anniversary of the D-Day Landings in 22:10 Normandy France what was the most 22:12 memorable image moment for you being uh 22:16 in 22:17 Normandy well for me normy's very 22:20 special for a lot of reasons um you know 22:22 as chief of Steph of the Army Major Army 22:25 operation it's really combined arms 22:27 operation with with the Allies there 22:29 were um you know that a lot of people 22:32 think it's just American British but 22:33 it's American British French Canadian uh 22:36 they were actually 28 Nations I think it 22:37 was or 26 Nations that had troops in 22:40 some manner shape or form in the Allied 22:41 invasion of Normandy so it's a huge 22:44 operation uh and for the US Army it's a 22:46 very you know special part uh and and my 22:49 uncle my father's brother uh was 22:52 actually at Omaha Beach he was in the 22:54 Navy in fact but he was part of the 22:56 beach Master team that landed at Omaha 22:59 Beach and directing troops you know go 23:00 left go right that sort of thing um and 23:03 and my dad uh was at cipan in June of 23:06 1944 with the fourth Marine Division so 23:09 he was my dad was the oldest of 10 so my 23:12 dad's hitting the beach in the Pacific 23:14 in June 44 and his his brother his 23:16 number two uh brother um he's hitting 23:19 the beach at Oma Beach uh in Normandy so 23:21 for me it's it's a personal thing and 23:24 it's kind of a uh really U almost 23:27 spiritual thing to go to Normandy walk 23:29 the beach see the waves look at the sand 23:32 and imagine that time uh for the nation 23:35 though and for the Army it's it's a it's 23:37 a massive strategic undertaking uh with 23:40 high amounts of risk 156,000 troops went 23:43 ashore either parachuted in the night 23:45 before or landed with the amphibious 23:47 Landing we had 195,000 or 200,000 23:51 Sailors and 7,000 ships offshore I mean 23:54 this was a massive undertaking uh that 23:57 then LED finally led to to the uh to the 23:59 ultimate defeat of Nazi Germany uh and 24:02 this was a in my view uh you know we 24:05 talk about the greatest 24:06 Generation uh and this goes back to your 24:08 for foreign policy question what's 24:10 America about uh look we we liberated 24:13 literally liberated uh France and and 24:16 the rest of Europe uh at enormous cost 24:19 in Blood and treasure uh and America 24:22 when when I go over there uh I on this 24:24 past trip I spent a fair amount of time 24:26 at St Mary GLE and the French people 24:28 people and many others there were 24:30 belgians there and from other countries 24:32 they have never forgotten the Goodwill 24:34 of the American people the American 24:35 Soldier uh and they've always remembered 24:37 that and they treasure it uh and they 24:39 celebrate it and the the degree of 24:41 embracing of 24:43 America you know as a result of World 24:46 War II is enormous the second biggest 24:48 thing is just talking to the veterans uh 24:50 you know the greatest generation is 24:52 passing quickly uh and the opportunity 24:55 to engage with uh those Soldiers and 24:57 Sailors and the folks that that 24:59 participated in World War II and 25:01 participated in the invasion Normy that's a very special thing for me incredible Legacy you're from an Incredible family General Mark Millie thank you for this conversation thanks M great conversation thank you very much General

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